Fourth International Riga Family Forum

Igor Beloborodov (Russia)

PhD in Sociology,Director of Demographic research Institute

(Moscow)

Demographics in a context of statehood and nation

Demographic Instability

Replacement level = 2.1 children born per woman

Total Fertility Rate = 1,4 children

in Eastern Europe born per woman

The birth rate in Eastern Europe is 1.5 times lower than need for the replacement of generations

World Fertility, 1990–2008

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Africa America Asia Europe Mediterran Oceania

1990 2000 2008

Tunisia

Total Fertility Rate

2.02

1.55China

Morocco 2.19

Iran

Non-Europeancountries

1.87

Azerbaijan 1,92

South Korea 1,23

Europeancountries

Global fertility decline

1.65

Total Fertility Rate

2.01

2.08

1.78

Belgium

Ireland

France

Netherlands

United Kingdom 1.91

Latvia 1,33

With a low birth rate the population is

shrinking twice in 25-30 years

Government views on the level of fertility

1976 16

The number of countries that viewed their fertility levels as too low

Year Number ofCounties

1986

1996

2001

2009

22

28

34

47

Government views on the level of fertility

1976 55

The number of countries that viewed their fertility levels as too high

Year Number ofCounties

1986

1996

2001

2009

67

87

85

73

01234

5678

Алекс

андр

II

Никола

й II

Стали

н

Брежне

в

Горба

чев

Елици

н

Путин

Мед

веде

в

Число детей у российских лидеров

No kids, no problem?

Международный Валютный Фонд: долголетие – это риск…

● Увеличение продолжительности жизни связано с финансовыми издержками

● Если средняя продолжительность жизни возрастет к 2050 году на 3 года больше, чем ожидается в настоящее время, и без того огромные издержки, связанные со старением населения, повысятся на 50 процентов.

● Для нейтрализации финансовых последствий риска долгожительства необходимо то или иное сочетание повышения пенсионного возраста (законодательного или добровольного), увеличения взносов в пенсионные планы и уменьшения размера выплат

Low Fertility and Pension Reform2010-2012

France

Latvia

Ukraine

Italy

Germany

Spain

The retirement age was raised TFR

2,0

1,15

1,5

1,4

1,3

1,4

Going to raise the retirement age

Moldova

Belgium

Austria

Greece

Netherlands

Sweden

TFR

1,3

1,8

1,5

1,5

1,75

1,9

With the rapid growth of the emerging markets, the global economy is experiencing a seismic shift. In this piece, we argue that this shift is set to continue. By 2050, the collective size of the economies we currently deem 'emerging' will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed world. And 19 of the 30 largest economies will be from the emerging world. At the same time, there will be a marked decline in the economic might – and potentially the political clout – of many small population, ageing, rich economies in Europe.

Demographic challenges

Age structure comparison in different countries

Saudi Arabia

65+ years

0-14 years

Egypt

65+ years

0-14 years

Israel

65+ years

0-14 years

Japan

65+ years

0-14 years

Poland

0-14 years

65+ years

Russia

0-14 years

65+ years

Germany

0-14 years

65+ years

Venezuela

0-14 years

65+ years

Change in working population between 2010 and 2050

Демографическое оружие

К 2050 г. демографические потери Германии составят 8 млн.

человек

К 2050 г. прирост населения в Индонезии составит 54 млн.

человек

THANK YOU FOR ATTENTION

Children – are not the problem,Children – are the solution(!)