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FRACMOO 2 Working Group August 2, 2017
FRACMOO 2 Working Group
August 2, 2017
Agenda
Time Item Presenter10:00-10:10 Introduction Greg Cook10:10-11:00 Operational Needs Assessment Clyde Loutan and ISO
Operations11:00-11:30 Proposed Framework for CAISO
Flexible Capacity Procurement Hannes Pfeifenberger, The Brattle Group
11:30-11:55 Flexibility Metrics and Future Considerations
Karl Meeusen
11:55-12:00 Next Steps Kim Perez
Page 2
IntroductionGreg Cook – Director, Markets and Infrastructure Policy
Based on stakeholder feedback, the ISO is reframing the flexible capacity initiative.
Page 4
• Broad opposition to previous ISO flexible capacity proposal, including
– Concern about conflating three separate drivers• Renewable curtailments• Risk of retirements• Operational needs
– Expressed need to take additional time to vet durable solution
– Expressed need to include intertie resources
• CAISO is resetting the effort
Path forward
Page 5
• Re-focus CAISO efforts on developing flexible capacity requirements aligned with operational needs – Develop an analytical approach to supporting proposed solutions
• Draft Final Proposal planned by end of the year– Provide proposal for CPUC consideration – Target implementation for 2020 RA compliance year
• Bring resulting policy to ISO Board summer 2018
Today’s focus
• What are the operational challenges facing the ISO?
• Where is the current 3-hour max net load ramp based requirement falling short?
• What changes are needed to the current flexible capacity product?
• What is the right framework for informing and assessing flexible capacity procurement needs?
Page 6
Operational Needs AssessmentClyde Loutan – Principal, Renewable Energy Integration
Solar production varies from one day to the next ---One week in March 2017
0
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07:00 08:00 09:00 10:00 11:00 12:00 13:00 14:00 15:00 16:00 17:00 18:00 19:00
Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average
AverageMW
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Wind production varies from one day to the next ---One week in March 2017
500
1,000
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2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average
Average
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Net Load varies from one day to the next ---One week in March 2017
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26,000
Mar 22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar 28 Average
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The assessment of a Balancing Authority control performance is based on the following components• Balancing Authority Ace Limit (BAAL) - is a real-time measure of area
control error and system frequency which cannot exceed predefined limits for more than 30-minutes
• Control Performance Standard (CPS1) - measures how well a BA’s ACE performs in conjunction with the frequency error of the Interconnection
• Disturbance Control Standard (DCS) - is the responsibility of a BA to recover its ACE to zero if its ACE just prior to the disturbance was greater than zero or to its pre-disturbance level if ACE was less than zero within 15 minutes
• Frequency Response
– All BAs to support the interconnection frequency within 52 seconds following a disturbance greater than 500 MW anywhere within the interconnection
CPS1 Pass ≥ 100% over rolling 12 months
BAALLimit ≤ 30 minutes
DCS = 100%
Page 11
3-hour ramps increase over time with build out of renewables and addition of behind-the-meter resources
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec2016 (Actual) 9,687 10,891 9,828 8,397 9,263 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12,9602017 11,342 12,465 11,253 9,973 10,878 8,996 8,379 8,768 11,575 11,900 12,391 14,0042018 12,282 13,313 12,352 11,111 11,803 10,039 9,326 9,617 12,660 12,954 13,376 14,5672019 13,595 14,543 13,574 12,672 12,631 11,350 10,616 10,982 13,981 14,199 14,553 15,4952020 15,439 15,984 15,089 14,572 13,859 13,181 12,391 12,821 16,061 16,169 16,293 16,817
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
MW
Monthly 3-Hour Upward Ramps
Page 12
3-hour flex capacity is important but is insufficient to meet all flexible ramping needs going forward, additional speed is needed
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecAct. 1Hr_Up_Ramp 4,144 4,929 4,260 3,870 3,585 3,265 2,688 3,118 4,453 4,889 5,512 5,676Act. 3Hr_Up_Ramp 9,687 10,891 9,828 8,397 8,411 7,669 7,214 7,463 10,030 10,228 11,375 12,960
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
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14,000
MW
Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Upward Monthly Ramps --- 2016
Monthly 1-hour upward ramp could be about 50% of the 3-hour upward ramps
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Intra-hour upward ramping needs for 2016
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Act. 30min_Up_Ramp 2,496 2,894 2,513 2,244 2,083 1,879 1,630 1,752 2,388 2,830 2,938 3,101Act. 10min_Up_Ramp 1,158 1,286 1,257 1,342 1,287 1,159 809 1,089 1,253 1,310 1,357 1,181Act. 5min_Up_Ramp 695 786 775 947 781 868 608 941 964 852 834 670
0
500
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MW
Actual Intra-Hour Upward Monthly Ramps --- 2016
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Actual monthly 1-hour and 3-hour downward ramps for 2016 were greater during the summer months
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecAct. 3Hr_Dn_Ramp -6,899 -7,681 -7,365 -7,677 -8,382 -10,63 -10,83 -10,95 -10,31 -7,327 -7,705 -8,028Act 1Hr_Dn_Ramp -3,355 -3,917 -3,537 -3,774 -3,387 -4,070 -4,265 -4,089 -3,915 -4,035 -5,274 -4,560
-12,000
-10,000
-8,000
-6,000
-4,000
-2,000
0
MW
Actual 1-Hour & 3-Hour Downward Monthly Ramps --- 2016
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Intra-hour downward ramping needs for 2016
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov DecAct 30min_Dn_Ramp -1,724 -2,204 -2,087 -1,990 -1,927 -2,247 -2,189 -2,111 -2,113 -2,142 -2,177 -2,155Act 10min_Dn_Ramp -869 -1,023 -1,128 -1,097 -1,013 -924 -922 -822 -823 -954 -1,181 -1,202Act 5min_Dn_Ramp -843 -671 -895 -945 -798 -753 -598 -697 -560 -836 -890 -1,111
-2,500
-2,000
-1,500
-1,000
-500
0
MW
Actual Intra-Hour Downward Monthly Ramps --- 2016
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Controlling CPS1 scores has been a recurring operational challenge – data from Jan to April 2017
10,000
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0%
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100%
120%
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160%
180%
200%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ne
t L
oa
d (
MW
)
CP
S1
(%
)
January, 2017 --- CPS1 (116.9%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production
CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load
10,000
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0%
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ne
t L
oa
d (
MW
)
CP
S1
(%
)
February, 2017 --- CPS1 (107.8%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production
CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load
10,000
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0%
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200%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ne
t L
oa
d (
MW
)
CP
S1
(%
)
March, 2017 --- CPS1 (112.3%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production
CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
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24,000
26,000
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Net L
oad
(MW
)
CPS
1 (%
)
April, 2017 --- CPS1 (115.4%) Hourly Average vs. Net Load & Solar Production
CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS1=100% Net Load
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16,000
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-1000%
-800%
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0%
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Net
Loa
d (M
W)
Hou
rly
CP
S1
(%)
Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load --- 01/31/2016
CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load
At certain times, ISO has persistent challenge balancing real-time supply and demand
ISO supports the Western Grid whenthe blue bars are above 100% (green line)
ISO leans on other BAs when thered bars are less than 100%
PerformanceTarget
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Intra-hour variability and uncertainty can result in inability to control the interconnection frequency in real-time
CPS1 is evaluated on a rolling 12-month average. Over the past few years, the rolling average has been declining as a result of some poor daily performances. Thus, the CAISO needs to take measures to improve daily performance on days with higher variability.
-1000%
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-200%
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Hou
rly C
PS
1 (%
)
Win
d/S
olar
(M
W)
Wind/Solar vs. CPS1 --- 01/31/2016
CPS1<100% CPS1>=100% Wind Solar CPS1 (Pass)
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59.92
59.94
59.96
59.98
60
60.02
60.04
60.06
-400
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-100
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Freq
uenc
y (H
z)
AC
E (M
W)
ACE vs. Frequency --- March 6, 2017
ACE ACE_zero Actual Frequency Scheduled_Frequency
Interplay between supply and demand impacts ability of the fleet to meet ramps - March 6, 2017 (Weekday)
0
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Win
d &
Sol
ar (M
W)
Load
& N
et L
oad
(MW
)
Load, Wind,Solar & Net-Load ---March 6, 2017
Load Net_Load Wind Solar
Load Solar Net LoadSunrise Ramp
Rate (MW/Min)
7:00 – 10:00
-6 31 -37
MW Change -1,023 5,529 -6,724Sunset Ramp
Rate (MW/Min)
16:00 – 19:00
27 -37 61
MW Change 4,801 -6,703 11,049
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,000
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
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500%
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
Ne
t L
oa
d (
MW
)
Ho
url
y C
PS
1
(%)
Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load --- 03/06/2017
CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load
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Interplay between supply and demand impacts ability of the fleet to meet ramps - March 26, 2017 (Weekend)
Load Solar Net LoadSunrise Ramp
Rate (MW/Min)
7:00 – 10:00
9 44 -30
MW Change 1,612 7,947 -5,489Sunset Ramp
Rate (MW/Min)
16:00 – 19:00
16 -37 54
MW Change 2,908 -6,575 9,663
0
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d &
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ar (M
W)
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& N
et L
oad
(MW
)
Load, Wind,Solar & Net-Load --- March 26, 2017
Load Net_Load Wind Solar
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Ne
t L
oa
d (
MW
)
Ho
url
y C
PS
1
(%)
Hourly CPS1 vs. Net Load --- 03/26/2017
CPS1>=100% CPS1<100% CPS_pass Net Load
59.88
59.9
59.92
59.94
59.96
59.98
60
60.02
60.04
60.06
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
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Freq
uenc
y (H
z)
AC
E (M
W)
ACE vs. Frequency --- March 26, 2017
ACE ACE_zero Actual Frequency Scheduled_Frequency
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Proposed Framework for CAISO Flexible Capacity Procurement
Johannes Pfeifenberger - Principal The Brattle Group
Future Direction of FRACMOO 2Karl Meeusen, Ph.D. – Senior Advisor, Infrastructure and Regulatory Policy
Recap of our data analysis
1. The origin of several operational challenges
2. The three hour ramp is still important but it is not capable of serving our full operational needs
3. Implications of not having sufficient flexibility is leading to operational challenges
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Flexible capacity needs are a function of both predictable and unpredictable factors
Uncertainty and Variability• Day-Ahead to Real-Time
markets
• Hourly to Fifteen Minute Market
• FMM to five minute dispatch
• Regulation
Ramping Needs• Three hour
• One hour
• Intra-hour
• Fifteen minute
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Example of day-ahead versus real-time uncertainty
-500
0
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7/18
/201
5 1:
057/
18/2
015
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7/18
/201
5 3:
057/
18/2
015
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7/18
/201
5 5:
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015
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7/18
/201
5 7:
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015
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7/18
/201
5 9:
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015
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015
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0:05
Sola
r Pr
oduc
tion
(MW
)
Day-ahead forecast
30-minutes ahead forecast
10-minutes ahead Forecast
Actual
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Suggestions we’ve heard from stakeholders
• Total bids and self-schedules by hour– Categorized by resource type– Categorized by RA and non-RA resources– Categorized by flexible RA and system RA resources
• Total bids and self-schedules of renewable resources by hour, categorized by resource online date
• In actual operations, is the CAISO exhausting resources capable of addressing intra-hour variability?
• To what extent does the CAISO rely on regulation to address intra-hour variability?
• Are resources that provide regulation typically procured and shown as generic or flexible RA?
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Need to rethink flexible vs. inflexible capacity while focusing on the core principles of operational needs, economic bidding, and environmental objectives.
Capa
city
(MW
)
Time
• Inflexible - resources that elect to not provide economic bids
• Flexible – resources that submit economic bids
• Redefine net load as load minus inflexible capacity
• Develop forecasted load and net load curves
• Flexible capacity covers the difference between gross load and inflexible capacity
Forecasted Minimum Net Load
Forecasted Maximum Gross Load
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CAISO is looking to develop shorter duration products to address operational needs created by uncertainty
• In addition to the existing three hour product, Flexible RA products should address one-hour and intra-hour net load ramps
• Products to address uncertainty and variability:– Day-ahead to real-time– One-hour uncertainty– 15-minute– 5-minute
• Resource counting rules and must offer-obligations must fit operational needs, e.g. provide the needed ramp capability.
• Provide opportunities for both internal and external resources to support flexible needs of the grid
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A new RA assessment methodology is needed to evaluate the interaction of the fleet to meet the needs of the transforming grid
• Ensure there is sufficient capacity & energy 8760 hrs/yr
• Satisfy all operational needs all hours of the year
• Consider the interactions of the RA fleet and its attributes across the year
• Properly account for resource use-limitations in the context of the transforming grid
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The ISO is taking a holistic, operationally-focused approach to address its flexibility needs, including what ISO market enhancements are needed
• RA enhancements and market design/process enhancements are needed to help the CAISO manage ramping needs, variability, and uncertainty
– IFM-RUC integration
– 15-minute IFM schedules
– Expanding STUC outlook horizon
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ISO is targeting the end of 2017 to complete its policy development, but additional coordination is needed.
• Stakeholder comments on proposed metrics by mid-August
• Stakeholder meeting on findings of proposed metrics in September
• Revised FRACMOO2 proposal targeted for mid-October
• Draft final proposal targeted for December
• Collaborate with LRA’s for target implementation for 2020 RA year
• CAISO Board approval summer 2018
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Next steps
• Stakeholder comments due:
• August 16, 2017
• Stakeholder meeting:
• September
• Complete stakeholder process by end of 2018
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