Fractal Maslow Windows and the Near-Term Colonization of Mars

Bruce Cordell, Ph.D.2012.8.3

21stCenturyWaves.com

JFK’s 50th Moon Anniversary

May 25, 1961: “…this nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to the earth.

Freeman Dyson, ISDC 2010:

‘Why have we been stuck in LEO

for 40 Years?’

Our Approach is Different

Long-Term

Empirical

Global

Preview• Apollo, the post-Apollo letdown, and the last 200

yrs of great explorations explained in terms of “critical states”

• Early Self-Sufficiency in deep space is essential– Maslow Windows close quickly

• Growth, Technology are the triggers…– Ebullience is the driver

• Our Window opens ~2015; next opens ~2071– Some urgency

Introduction

The Patterns

Over the last 200+ years…

Twice-Per-Century Clusters of these exist:

• Great Explorations (e.g., Lewis and Clark)• Macro-Engineering Projects (e.g., Panama Canal)• Major Wars (e.g., World War I)

Standard Chartered Bank’s “Super-Cycles”

Why Should NASA Care?• A Framework for long-range planning and specific

Forecast Models

• A Marketing Theme – Space Exploration is the most recent manifestation of the tradition of Great Explorations that can be traced back to Lewis and Clark; And, they are always the result of economic booms

• A Morale Boost -- Timing is based on patterns (i.e., Maslow Windows) that are observed over the last 200+ years

Disney and Von Braun

The 1960sweretransformative…

The Way We Were…

The Way We Will Be

The Maslow WindowEconomic Model

It’s 1987. Why the smiles?

Great Exploration Events and MEPs: DefinitionsGreat Exploration Events are recognized by:1. Exploration of significantly new geographical sites

2. An international audience attracted by competition, nationalism, and/or danger

3. Often, the use of state-of-the-art technology

Macro-Engineering Projects (MEPs) are recognized by:1. Use of state-of-the-art technology, that is often improved

2. High cost ($ Multi B) and very large physical size

3. Ability to satisfy intangible needs of a spiritual or psychological nature, and to be highly inspiring (in addition to any practical purpose)

Compelling Clusters

Energy Peaks 1801 1857 1913 1969

Great Lewis & Clark/ Livingstone/ Peary/ Apollo/

Explorations N. America Africa Polar Moon

Macro-Engineering (Erie Canal) Suez Canal Panama Canal Apollo

Projects (MEP)

Major Wars Napoleanic Wars/ Civil War W.W. I Vietnam/

War of 1812 Cold War

The 56 Yr Energy/Boom Cycle

From Hugh B. Stewart (1989), Recollecting the Future, Dow Jones-Irwin, Homewood, IL, pp. 64.

Replotted in Theodore Modis (1992) Predictions, Simon & Schuster, New York, pp. 148.

The “Maslow Window” Model

• Rhythmic, twice-per-century economic booms occur (“Super-Cycle”)

• Widespread affluence (the “Great Prosperity”)

• Many ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy (“ebullience”); GEs and MEPs supported

• Some do not ascend Maslow’s Hierarchy (“animal spirits”)

Maslow Windows as “Critical States”

Are Maslow Windows Self Organized Criticality Phenomena?

• Punctuated Equilibria

• “Wars & GEs, like forest fires, are Fractal and SOC processes.” (MEP still TBD)

• Obey Bak’s Gap Equation– Agent-based model

• Large, unexpected changes from small triggers– “Avalanches”

Are Critical States Like Falling Grains of Sand?

Are Great Explorations Fractal?

Are Space Programs Like Wildfires and Wars?

Wernher von Braun (1948) compared the logistics of a manned mission to Mars to “…a minor military operation

extending over a limited theater of war.”

Roberts & Turcotte (1998): “A war must begin similar to the ignition of a forest … The frequency-size statistics are power law (fractal) … World order behaves as a SOC system independent of the efforts to stabilize interactions between people and countries.”

Are Apollo-level space programs likewise robust, SOC-driven systems?

Are Maslow Windows Predictable?

Near-Critical Potential Signatures Include:

• Financial Panics; e.g., Panics of 2008, 1893…

• Great Recessions; Great Recessions of 2008-10, 1890s…

• Major Economic Booms; e.g., 1899, 2014 (?)…

• Geopolitical Tensions/Conflicts; e.g., Cuban Missile Crisis, Spanish-American War…

A 21st Century “Sputnik Moment”?

The 1960s As a “Critical State”• Sputnik (1957)• Cuban Missile Crisis• Peace Corps• Apollo Moon Program• Civil Rights Movement• Vietnam

Yale Sociologist Gary Brewer: During Apollo,

NASA was “a perfect place.”

A Maslow Case Study: 1890-1913

Forecasts and Issues

Greatest Global Boom – 7/23/07

A Few Forecasts: 2015 - 2025

• The Great Boom of 2015– Required trigger for Maslow Window

• A Great Exploration in Space– “Sputnik-like” competitors?– A “Grand Alliance for Space”?

• A Primary MEP, w Secondary MEPs– E.g., manned Mars, solar power, space tourism

– Cost ~ 10x Apollo

• A Major 2020s War– An early war could eliminate GE/MEP events.

The Trajectory of Great Explorations

Lewis and Clark/NW U.S.

Dr. Livingstone/Eq Africa

Peary/Amundsen/Poles

Apollo/Moon

What’s Next? Or ?

What About the Moon?

“The Moon will never motivate the American people again.” (1984)Tom Paine, NASA Admin 1968-70

• Star Trek: The Next Generation

• ISS Model and Interspace

• “The potential for cultural shock and social disorganization…”

The “Earth” Model or the “Moon” Model?

What Explorations Will Work?

• A Great Exploration• Program Culminates by 2025 or before• Early Self-Sufficiency in deep space

CandidatesZubrin SpaceX Mars

Aldrin; Russia/China Phobos

Davies 1-Way MarsInternational Moon Base w In Situ Resources

Who’s the Next Space President?

Summary

• 2015-2025: analog of the transformative1960s/1900s “critical states”

• The key: early self-sufficiency in deep space – because support ends abruptly

• One wildcard: timing of projected major war in 2020s

• After 2025, next Maslow Window of opportunity is between 2071 – 2081.

Can Humanity Afford to Wait?

Contact

Dr. Bruce Cordell

Web: 21stCenturyWaves.com

Email: Bruce@21stCenturyWaves.com

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