Framework for setting goals and actions to reach goals

Seminar on the implementation of theSystem of National Accounts 2008 in AfricaAddis Ababa, Ethiopia, 11 to 15 April 2011

Herman SmithUNSD/DESA

Introduction Strategic planning framework Vision document

Outline of presentation

Development of an economic statistics programme for compiling the required scope and detail of the National Accounts to inform policy makers

◦ National policy development plans, NSDS, etc

◦ Regional strategic frameworks for statistical capacity building (RRSF, ASCC, AStCom, AchartStats, SHaSA)

Statement of strategy

Mandate, ◦ Underpinned by

Legal mandate (Statistical act) International standards

Mission Values High-level goals Specific goals Required activities

Typical strategic planning framework

Mandate, underpinned by ◦ Legal mandate (Statistical act)◦ International standards

UN Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics 2008 SNA BPM6 GFSM ISIC rev4

Mission ◦ Compile national accounts according to milestone

two of the SNA implementation, comprising the minimum required data set

Strategic planning frame work

Values◦ Statistical professionalism◦ Independence and integrity◦ Excellent service to our customers◦ Respect and understanding for our data suppliers◦ Value for money

High level goals – Strategic lines Specific goals – Strategic objectives/actions Required activities

Strategic planning frame work

1: Equipping African countries with an SNA that is appropriate to their socio-economic realitiesDevelop a description of the sources and methods based on the 2008 SNA that are relevant for the country

2: Strengthening ICP-Africa assets in the field of national accountsDevelop sources and methods that are relevant for the ICP programme

High level goals – Strategic lines

3: Preparing an optimal and efficient operational system of production and diffusion of national accountsTimeliness, Periodicity, Revision cycleScopeDetail

4: Building capacity and sustainability of national accounts production and analysisNational accounts production and training capacity building

High level goals – Strategic lines

5: Increasing the availability and improving the quality of the basic data required for the compilation of national accounts, based on the National Strategy for the development of statistics (NSDS)Development of source data –

Business registers and framesSurveysAdministrative dataInternational statistical standards (BPM6, ISICr4, GFS etc.)

6: Increasing human, material and financial resourcesInstitutional capacity building

High level goals – Strategic lines

7: Undertake advocacy at all decision making levels

Communicate the use of national accounts in policy making

Monitoring and ReportingCommunication and dissemination of the national accounts to users

High level goals – Strategic lines

Assessment of the NSS to support national accounts compilation - Where are we now◦ Using the Diagnostic tool

Develop a vision for improving the availability and quality of the economic statistics required for the compilation of national accounts

Developing specific goals

Discuss vision preferably in a national seminar with all stakeholders, such as:

◦ policy planners;

◦ users including the academia; and

◦ business community.

Vision document cont

Such a discussion is expected to help the NSO to: ◦ prioritize actions to mitigate the problem areas ◦ write a plan for the improvement of the supporting

statistics for the compilation of the national accounts◦ develops an information structure for planning,

monitoring and evaluating the implementation of the SNA; and

◦ builds on the joint efforts of the ISWGNA and AGNA to establish an information structure for managing technical assistance operations

Vision document cont

Scope and detail of the national accounts Frequency of aggregates – nominal and volumes 2008 SNA compliance ISIC ref 4 compliance Requirements from the African strategy Required data sources – Needs Current data sources and compilation methods –

What you have

Setting of goals - Where we want to be

1.1.3. Inventory of sources of information and questionnaires (collection tools) required by the 2008 – Diagnostic tool

2.1.1. Integration of the GDP breakdown (for ICP) into the 2008 SNA national accounts routine work – ICP

3.1: Preparing national accounts in accordance with an timeline that respects the national, sub regional and international requirements – MRDS (timeliness and periodicity)

3.2.2. Establishing tables to be elaborated and published by group of countries – MRDS (scope and detail)

Objectives and actions of the African strategy that are of particular importance at the national level

4.1.1. Utilization of modern and country adapted IT tools 5.1.1. Evaluation of data sources required for the elaboration of the 2008

System of national accounts – Diagnostic tool 5.1.2. Development of statistical surveys required for improvement of

national accounts – determined by Diagnostic tool 5.2.1. Making an inventory of administrative data sources required for

national accounts compilation – Diagnostic tool 5.3: Implementing international statistical systems (balance of payments,

budget statistics, financial statistics, etc) for the improvement of national accounts – BPM6, GFSM IRIS, IRDTS

5.4: Adapting international classifications to African socio-economic realities – ISIC rev 4

Links to the African strategy cont

Setting of goals - Where we want to beVision document

Data item

Frequency 2008 SNA

Required sources

Principal data sources and compilation

methods

M Q A

N V N V N VNominal Volu

mesNominal Volumes

National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDSSet of short term indicators Blue – Goals

Green – needsRed – current status

Setting of goals - Where we want to beVision document

Data item

Frequency 2008 SNA

Required sources

Principal data sources and compilation

methods

M Q A

N V N V N VNominal Volu

mesNominal Volumes

National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDSSet of short term indicators

Data item

2008 SNA Required sources

Nominal Volumes

Final consumption expenditure

Household final consumption expenditure

FISIM allocated to users,Imputed rents Goods that are produced by households for own final consumption

Household income and expenditure surveys, retail trade sales by type of expenditure itemsHousing stock

Price indices or volume series by type of expenditure items

Data item

2008 SNA Required sources

Nominal Volumes

General government final consumption expenditure

Government final consumption expenditure broken down into individual and collective consumption

GFS data by level of governmentConsumption of fixed capital of government fixed assets

Price indices or volume series by type of expenditure items

Individual consumption expenditure

Collective consumption expenditure

The entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCF FISIM allocated to users

Gross fixed capital formation

The entire defence expenditure incurred by government included in the GCFConsumption of fixed capital measured on all government fixed assets (airfields, roads, hospitals, docks, dams and breakwaters and other forms of construction structures) including military weapon systemsThe expenditure on Research and Development included in GCFPurchases of computer software expected to be used for more than a year included in GCFExpenditure on software development on own account expected to be used for more than a year and for sale included in GCF The expenditure on all databases expected to be used for more than a year, whether purchased on the market or developed in-house, included in the GCF Expenditure on entertainment, literary or artistic originals included in the GCF

Information by type of asset from:Household income and expenditure surveys capturing own construction expenditureEconomic activity surveys (structural business statistics and short term business statistics)GFS data by level of government

Price indices or volume series by type of asset

Setting of goals - Where we want to beVision document

Data item

Frequency 2008 SNA

Required sources

Principal data sources and compilation

methods

M Q A

N V N V N VNominal Volu

mesNominal Volumes

National accounts aggregates to comply to Milestone 2 - MRDSSet of short term indicators

Sector Subsector Annual estimates Quarterly estimates

Constant-price estimates

Final consumption expenditure by householdsBy purpose and Durable, semi-durable and non-durable goods: and services

Food beverages and tobacco: All components

Benchmark year: Estimated by the five-yearly survey of income and expenditure of households, survey of retail sales, verified by the supply and use framework. Estimates include farm produce consumed by farmers for own account. Other years: Estimated according to monthly surveys of retail trade sales by Stats SA.

Information obtained from the National Department of Agriculture, retail trade sales by Stats SA and relevant sources.

Nominal expenditure is divided by relevant components of the CPI.

Sector Subsector

Annual estimates Quarterly estimates

Constant-price estimates

Manufacturing

Benchmark year: Periodic large sample surveys and AFSs of manufacturing conducted by Stats SA. Other years: AFSs and monthly data on production and sales, and quarterly surveys of financial and labour statistics conducted by Stats SA, supplemented by sample surveys conducted by the SARB.

Same as for annual estimates for other years.

Base-year estimates are extrapolated using appropriate indices of output quantities based on manufacturing sales at constant prices for the various subsectors of manufacturing.

Required activities

Coordination of NSS 2008 SNA compliance ISIC rev 4 compliance Monthly Price statistics Monthly and quarterly production and turnover

surveys Business registers Economic activity surveys (structural business

statistics and short term business statistics) Household income and expenditure surveys Informal sector surveys etc.

Diagnostic tool reveals data gaps

Vision document specify the goals and needs

Action plan indicates the required actions with a time table to mitigate data gaps

This action plan represents an implementation programme for strengthening the economic statistics for the compilation of the required scope and detail of the national accounts

Action plan – How to get there

Development of economic statistics for national accounts

VisionSetting of goals

Where we want to be

Assessment

Assessment of the NSS to support national accounts

compilation

Where are we now

Action Plan

Actions to reach goals

How to get there

Implementation

How to stay there

COUNTRY OWNERSHIP

Political Commitment

Statistical capacity

National policy development plans, NSDS,

etc.

Regional strategic frameworks for

statistical capacity building

RRSF, ASCC, AStCom,

AchartStats, SHaSA

Support from the regional and global

SNA implementation programme

National statement of strategy

Decide on the scope and detail of national

accounts compilation

Thank You