Date post: | 30-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | mikayla-osborne |
View: | 28 times |
Download: | 1 times |
Francis X. Johnson, Stockholm Environment InstituteUnited Nations Foundation and German NGO ForumInternational ConferenceSustainable Bioenergy: Challenges and OpportunitiesBonn, Germany, 12-13 October 2006Import Substitution and Export Potential for Biofuels Trade: the case of ethanol from sugarcane and sweet sorghum EUROPEAN COMMISSIONResearch Directorate-GeneralCane Resources Network for Southern Africa
Overview of Presentation
Energy-Environment-Development Driving ForcesProductive Biofuel crops: sugarcane and sweet sorghumFocus on southern Africa (SADC)Global market sharesCapacity of existing factories: reaching economies-of-scaleGeographic Information Systems Analysis potentialScenarios for future production and blendingExport potentialCARENSA: an International Network/PartnershipNorth-South-South collaboration: research and analysis, technology transfer, capacity-building, policy dialogue
Energy-Environment-Development driving forces for biofuels development and North-South-South CollaborationRural development - creation of sustainable livelihoodsEnhancing the role of women as community leadersRelieving resource pressures and stressesSocioeconomics of urbanisation and migrationEnergy security: local regional global Rural health issues - indoor airUrban health issues lead (in Africa), air qualityfuture competitiveness of agro-industriesKyoto Annex 1 countries seeking carbon creditsDeveloping countries looking for foreign investment through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)Dependence on fossil fuels in increasingly volatile marketReduced vulnerability of poor farmers through diversification
Comparison of biofuel yields
A typology of liquid biofuels (Fulton, UNEP, 2006)
GHG Emissions Impacts of BiofuelsWell-to-wheel CO2-equivalent GHG emissions from biofuels, per km, relative to base fuel
Cost Per Tonne of CO2 Reduction is Currently Lowest in Brazil Costs in IEA Countries are High(based on $30/bbl oil)Source: IEA, 2004, Biofuels for Transport: An International Perspective
Shares of global sugarcane production, 2004
Chart1
0.29
0.039
0.207
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.13
0.034
Sheet1
Table 2: Land Use summary for SADC and selected countries/regions
Country/RegionTotal Land AreaForest AreaAgricultural Areas (a)Cultivated Area (b)
UNITS:Million haMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land area
Angola124.769.856%57.646%3.62.9%
Botswana56.712.422%26.046%0.40.7%
Congo226.7135.260%22.810%7.83.4%
Lesotho3.02.377%0.311.0%
Madagascar58.211.720%27.647%3.66.1%
Malawi9.42.627%4.447%2.627.5%
Mauritius0.20.156%0.152.2%
Mozambique78.430.639%48.662%4.65.8%
Namibia82.38.010%38.847%0.81.0%
South Africa121.48.97%99.682%15.712.9%
Swaziland1.71.481%0.211.2%
Tanzania88.438.844%48.154%5.15.8%
Zambia74.331.242%35.347%5.37.1%
Zimbabwe38.719.049%20.653%3.48.7%
Total SADC964.1368.338%433.245%53.45.5%
Brazil845.9543.964%263.631%66.67.9%
China932.7163.518%554.959%154.916.6%
India297.364.122%180.861%169.757.1%
United States915.9226.025%409.345%175.519.2%
EU-15313.0115.737%140.445%84.627.0%
Sources: FAOSTAT 2005; World Resources Institute 2005
Note: (a) Agricutural areas includes temporary and permanent pastures, permanent crops, and temporary crops
Note: (b) Cultivated areas includes permanent crops and temporary crops
Country/RegionTotal Land AreaForest AreaAgricultural AreasCultivated Area
UNITS:Million haMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land areaMillion hashare of total land area
Total SADC96436838%43345%535.5%
Brazil84654464%26431%677.9%
China93316318%55559%15516.6%
India2976422%18161%17057.1%
United States91622625%40945%17619.2%
EU-1531311637%14045%8527.0%
Sheet2
Table 1: GDP and Population summary for SADC and selected countries/regions in 2003-2004
Country/RegionGDP/capita (USD)PopulationRural PopulationAgricultural Population (b)Total Land Area
UNITS:Nominal GDPGDP - PPP (a)1000sDensity (p/km2)1000sshare of total1000sshare of totalMillion ha
Angola130424571362511877664%968071%124.7
Botswana5702101691785387149%78344%56.7
Congo11163352771233617769%3260262%226.7
Lesotho6332074180259147882%69639%3.0
Madagascar25185417404301279874%1269373%58.2
Malawi152569121051291014284%921576%9.4
Mauritius483312215122160169057%12710%0.2
Mozambique320124718863241210064%1435076%78.4
Namibia2233644919872134268%92647%82.3
South Africa45871079845026371926843%578913%121.4
Swaziland2172499510776382477%34732%1.7
Tanzania30867336977422384864%2838477%88.4
Zambia4788701081215698565%730268%74.3
Zimbabwe49123091289133839465%784461%38.7
964.1
Total SADC126731422283462414369363%13073857%
Brazil33258049178470213038017%2647115%845.9
China12725642131170914180178361%85102865%932.7
India6223080106546235876382272%55659252%297.3
United States3993539496294043325818020%59442%915.9
EU-1529291269003800511218244422%145454%313.0
Sources: FAOSTAT 2005, World Bank 2005
Note: (a) PPP = Purchasing Power Parity, which reflects better differences in cost of living, whereas Nominal GDP accounts more appropriately for the value of international trade
Note: (b) Agricultural Population is those persons who earn their livelihoods from agricultural activities along with their non-working dependents
Sheet5
Low-inputsHigh-inputs
SuitableSuitabletotal-land-area
Angola1%10%124670
Malawi11%26%9408
Mozambique16%28%78409
South Africa0%1%121447
Swaziland0%0%1720
Tanzania4%13%88359
Zambia8%34%74339
Zimbabwe0%3%38685
SuitableSuitableCountryTotal landSuitable Share
Low-inputsHigh-inputs(1000 ha)Low-inputsHigh-inputs
Malawi10542418Malawi940811%26%
Mozambique1285921719Mozambique7840916%28%
South Africa01214South Africa1214470%1%
Tanzania309311222Tanzania883594%13%
Zambia565024904Zambia743398%34%
Zimbabwe771315Zimbabwe386850%3%
2273262792
Sheet5
00
00
00
00
00
00
Suitable Low-inputs
Suitable High-inputs
Land suitable for sweet sorghum production (1000 ha)
Sheet4
Table 13: Share of land area suitable for sweet sorghum in SADC countries
Low inputsHigh inputs
UnsuitableSomewhat SuitableSuitableUnsuitableSomewhat SuitableSuitable
Angola75.70%23.80%0.50%60.40%29.70%9.90%
Malawi50.20%38.60%11.20%41.30%33.00%25.70%
Mozambique42.80%40.80%16.40%25.80%46.50%27.70%
South Africa98.90%1.10%0.00%90.60%8.40%1.00%
Swaziland99.50%0.50%0.00%68.40%31.60%0.00%
Tanzania55.40%41.10%3.50%32.70%54.60%12.70%
Zambia32.60%59.80%7.60%16.50%50.00%33.50%
Zimbabwe79.40%20.40%0.20%40.40%56.20%3.40%
Source: Dalianis et al 2004
Notes: low and high resource inputs refers to fertilisers, land preparation, and other inputs
Sheet6
Sugar Cane production in 2004 in SADC and selected other countries
Area harvestedtotal productionaverage yieldShares of total production
Country1000 ha1000 tctc/hashare of SADC totalshare of world total
Malawi2021001054.60%
Mauritius7251997311.40%
South Africa326204196344.80%1.50%
Tanzania1720001184.40%
Zambia1718001064.00%
Zimbabwe45453310110.00%
SADC total69645557653.40%
Australia4483699583Congo DR0.0392.70%
Brazil537139601274Madagascar0.05429.10%
India460828160061Malawi4.60%20.70%
Thailand11397425965Mauritius11.40%5.50%
South Africa44.80%
World20822135912065Swaziland9.90%
Sources: FAOSTAT 2005Tanzania4.40%
Zambia4.00%
Zimbabwe10%Zimbabwe10.00%
Malawi5%Others1.60%
Others6%
South Africa45%
Madagascar5%
Tanzania4%
Zambia4%
Mauritius11%
Swaziland10%
Mauritius11%
Brazil29%
Pacific4%
India21%
Other Asia10%
Other SA10%
ASEAN10%
N&C America13%
SADC3%
Sheet6
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Sheet3
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Coal4
Hydroelectric3
Oil1
Ethanol152
Ethanol15
Consumer goods44
Capital goods98
Metallurgy145
Chemical220
0
0
0
0
Jobs Created per equivalent energy output (Oil = 1)
0
0
0
0
0
Cost of creating various jobs by industry type (1000 USD)
Global Scenarios in 2030 for Ethanol blending **10% gasoline + 3% diesel of IEA 2030 Projection = 276 bl **Scenario E4 exceeds this projected blending market!!
Southern African Development Community (SADC)
Potential Trade Balances (in the absence of major trade barriers) for bio-ethanol in the medium-term (2025-2030)Brazil: net exporterU.S.: net importerOther N & S America: self-sufficientChina: net importerIndia: self-sufficientSE Asia: net exporterEU: net importerWestern Africa: self-sufficientSouthern and Eastern Africa: net exporter
Chart2
151.3079664871108.94173587071627.4525094142320.5398746843130.2005051622139.2033291681329.5714472039729.7248530452
164.7395372478145.63516117341641.643531692323.3349107768139.8021264682173.7850017557332.4452365909736.0878907292
172.6438582412169.11708466551655.9582965137326.1543189595145.4955126621195.0198848758335.3440847793742.5064126801
180.9274342175196.38518675921670.3978828863328.9983117517151.4207597524218.8494698204338.2682102763748.9809027085
189.6084621022228.04994335581684.9633792261331.8671035256157.5873101821245.5908046053341.2178334943755.5118488434
198.7060119228264.82026227541699.6558834397334.7609105229164.0049909341275.5996775143344.1931767677762.0997433694
208.2400686999307.51935422411714.4765030075337.6799508706170.6840291912309.2753507935347.1944643698768.7450828638
218.2315763501357.10316276351729.4263550667340.624444598177.6350686344347.0658727586350.2219225291775.448368234
228.7024836938414.68176589221744.5065664958343.5946136528184.869186404389.4740389902353.2757794473782.2101047549
239.6757926718481.54422837571759.7182739993346.5906819182192.3979107528437.0640819325356.3562653155789.0308021076
251.1756088743559.18746121641775.0626241936349.6128752295200.2332394169490.4691778963359.4636123322795.9109744173
263.2271944951649.34973436681790.5407736935352.6614213913208.3876587355550.3998713476362.5980547206802.8511402924
275.8570238259754.04959296651806.1538891988355.7365501945216.8741635491617.6535285639365.7598287464809.8518228634
289.0928414143875.63104835551821.9031475832358.8384934338225.7062779079693.1249464382368.9491727353816.9135498223
302.96372301091016.81605559631837.7897359819361.9674849251234.8980766235777.8182575788372.1663270912824.0368534625
317.50013944171180.76545236731853.8148518821365.1237605232244.464207699872.860290099375.4115343143831.222270719
332.73402354461371.14972352261869.9797032126368.3075581393254.4199156712979.5155598473378.6850390194838.4703432086
348.69884031821592.23117558771886.2855084352371.5191177592264.7810659051099.2030945457381.9870879541845.781617271
365.42966043561848.95936090781902.7334966362374.7586814616275.56416987571233.5153136795385.3179300178853.1566440097
382.96323728582147.08188779621919.3249076197378.0264934356286.7864114821384.2392153295388.6778162801860.5959793339
401.33808771192493.27309748921936.060992381.3228298.46567443021553.3801518365392.067868.100184
Malawi
Mozambique
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Other SADC
Million litres
Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane
Ethanol-cane
Scenarios for Bioenergy from Sugarcane1000 tcSET
Year:20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Additional production
Production (tc)growth1000 tc
Malawi3.89%2000200021592243233024212515261327152820293030443162328634133546368438283977413142924459429222926%
Mozambique15.12%144014401908219725292911335238584442511458876777780189811033911902137021577318158209042406427703240642262456%
South Africa0.00%215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151200%
Swaziland0.00%4237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423700%
Tanzania3.17%1721172118321890195020122076214222102280235224272504258326652750283729273020311532143316321414934%
Zambia11.25%1840184022772533281831353488388143174803534359446613735681849105101291126812536139461551517260155151367534%
Zimbabwe0.00%4356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435600%
Other SADC0.00%9646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964600%
Total-SADC4555746752479274861449378502305118152244534345476756262579425983161956643526705370102735477744181847868368683640085100%
Yield (tc/hagrowthYieldSET
Malawi0.44%105105106106107107108108109109110110111111111112112113113114114115115
Mozambique3.53%505052545557596264666871737678818487909397100100
South Africa0.59%6767676768686969697070717172727273737474757575
Swaziland0.17%97979797979797989898989898999999999999100100100100
Tanzania0.45%105105106106107107107108108109109110110111111112112113113114114115115
Zambia0.58%107107108108109109110111111112113113114115115116117117118119119120120
Zimbabwe0.15%102102102102102103103103103103103103104104104104104104105105105105105
Other SADC1.98%5151525354555657585960626364656768697172747575
Total-SADC105105106107107108108109109110110110111111112112113113114114115115
Area Harvested (1000 ha)Check
Malawi3.6%19.019.020.321.021.722.523.324.124.925.726.627.528.529.530.531.532.633.734.936.137.338.638.6
Mozambique11.8%28.828.835.939.844.249.254.760.867.675.283.693.0103.4115.0127.9142.2158.1175.8195.5217.4241.7268.8268.8
South Africa-0.6%322.5322.5318.7316.9315.0313.2311.3309.5307.7305.9304.1302.4300.6298.8297.1295.4293.6291.9290.2288.5286.8285.1285.1
Swaziland-0.2%43.843.843.743.643.543.543.443.343.243.243.143.042.942.942.842.742.742.642.542.442.442.342.3
Tanzania2.8%16.416.417.317.718.218.719.219.720.320.821.422.022.623.223.824.525.125.826.527.228.028.728.7
Zambia11.2%17.217.221.123.325.828.531.534.938.642.747.252.257.763.970.678.186.495.6105.7117.0129.4143.1143.1
Zimbabwe-0.2%42.742.742.642.642.542.442.442.342.242.242.142.042.041.941.941.841.741.741.641.641.541.441.4
Other SADC-2.0%190.3190.3182.9179.5176.0172.6169.2165.9162.7159.6156.5153.4150.4147.5144.7141.8139.1136.4133.7131.2128.6126.1126.1
Total-SADC1.8%680.8680.8682.5684.3687.0690.5695.0700.6707.3715.3724.6735.6748.2762.7779.2798.0819.4843.5870.7901.3935.7974.2974.2
Change in area harvested (ha)
Malawi0133369572274777379982785588491594697910121047108311201158119812391282
Mozambique0708638874459495355086125681175738422936510413115801287614318159221770519687218922434427070
South Africa0-3768-1851-1851-1840-1830-1819-1808-1798-1787-1777-1766-1756-1746-1736-1725-1715-1705-1695-1685-1676
Swaziland0-148-74-74-74-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-72-72-72-72-72-72-72-72
Tanzania0904466481494507521535549564580595611628645663680699718737757
Zambia0386822242472273430243345370040934527500755386126677674958290916910142112181240813725
Zimbabwe0-127-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62
Other SADC0-7388-3479-3484-3415-3349-3284-3220-3158-3097-3037-2978-2920-2863-2808-2753-2700-2647-2596-2545-2496
Total-SADC01760180626613536449755516708797993781091712614144851654918827213442412527200306013436438529
Cumulative Change in area harvested (ha)Check
Malawi01333202927513498427050695896675176358550949610474114861253313616147361589517093183321961419614
Mozambique07086109741543220385258933201838829464035482464189746028618299058113377129298147003166690188583212926239996239996
South Africa0-3768-5619-7470-9310-11140-12959-14767-16564-18352-20128-21895-23651-25396-27132-28857-30573-32278-33973-35659-37335-37335
Swaziland0-148-222-296-369-443-516-589-662-735-808-881-953-1026-1098-1170-1242-1314-1386-1458-1530-1530
Tanzania09041370185023442851337239074457502156016196680774358081874394231012210840115781233512335
Zambia0386860928564112981432217668213682546029987349944053246658534346092869218783878852999747112156125880125880
Zimbabwe0-127-190-254-317-380-443-506-568-631-694-756-819-881-943-1005-1067-1129-1191-1253-1315-1315
Other SADC0-7388-10867-14351-17767-21116-24400-27621-30779-33875-36912-39889-42809-45672-48480-51233-53933-56580-59176-61721-64217-64217
Total-SADC01760356662279762142591981026517344964387454791674058189098438117265138609162735189935220536254900293429293429397825
Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check
Malawi0.87%7515116517318119019920821822924025126327628930331833334936538340190401
Mozambique0.87%751091461691962282653083574154825596497548761017118113711592184921472493902493
South Africa0.87%75162716421656167016851700171417291745176017751791180618221838185418701886190319191936901936
Swaziland0.87%7532132332632933233533834134434735035335635936236536837237537838190381
Tanzania0.87%7513014014515115816417117818519220020821722623524425426527628729890298
Zambia0.87%751391741952192462763093473894374905506186937788739801099123413841553901553
Zimbabwe0.87%7533033233533834134434735035335635936336636937237537938238538939290392
Other SADC0.87%7573073674374975676276977578278979680381081782483183884685386186890868
Total-SADC00.87%75.0353736573742383439344044416442964441460247814980520254505728604163936790723977488324832490
Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)
Malawi796481038211831984298540865287678882899991189238936094839608973598639994101251025910394
Mozambique378340584252444046374842505652805514575860136280655868487152746977998145850688829276
South Africa504751515226530353805459553956205703578658715957604461336222631464066500659566926790
Swaziland731474037480755876367716779778787960804381278212829783848471856086498739883089229015
Tanzania795080908199830784188529864387578874899191119232935494799604973298619992101251025910395
Zambia809082468370849286158741886889979128926193969532967198129955101001024710396105471070010856
Zimbabwe771178017881796280438125820882928377846285498636872588148904899590879180927493689464
Other SADC383440244137425643784504463347664903504351885337549056475809597661476324650566926884
Total-SADC519653595468558156985818594360746209635165006656682169957178737375797799803282808545
Production on new area (assume juice) - million litres
Malawi0111723293644526069788898109120133145159173188204
Mozambique02947699512516220525631638646856567881196611471358160418912226
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania07111520242934404551576470788593101110119128
Zambia032517397125157192232278329386451524607699803920105212001367
Zimbabwe000000000000000000000
Other SADC000000000000000000000
Total-SADC0791261792413113924835887078441000117813821615188221882538293933983925
Ethanol Production (C mol)yield (l/tc)Million litres
Malawi0.50%918202021222324252728293032333436383941434510
Mozambique0.50%91317202327313642485664758610011513415517920723927710
South Africa0.50%919519619719819920020120220320420520620720820921021121221321421510
Swaziland0.50%938393939393939404040404041414141424242424210
Tanzania0.50%916171718191920212122232425262728293031323310
Zambia0.50%91721232629323640455157637179889911012313815417310
Zimbabwe0.50%939404040404041414141414242424242434343434410
Other SADC0.50%987888889898990909191929293939494959595969610
Total-SADC0.50%9.042343644445346447548750151653255157259562165168472176381086492510
Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)
Malawi9529659759849931002101210221031104110511061107110811091110211121123113311441155
Mozambique4524835055255465685916156406666937217507818128458799159529911031
South Africa603614620627634641648655662669677684692699707714722730738746754
Swaziland8748828888949009069129189249309379439499569629699759829889951002
Tanzania9519649739829921001101110211030104010501060107010811091110111121123113311441155
Zambia967982993100410151026103710481060107110831095110711191131114311551168118111931206
Zimbabwe92292993594194895496096697397998599299810051011101810251031103810451052
Other SADC458479491503516529542555569583598613628644660676693710728746765
Total-SADC621638649660671683695708721735749764780797815834855876899923949
Production on existing area (assume C-molasses)
Malawi181819191919191920202020202121212121222222
Mozambique131415151616171818192021222223242526272930
South Africa195198200202204207209211214216218221223225228230233235238241243
Swaziland383939393940404041414141424242424343434444
Tanzania161616161616171717171717181818181818191919
Zambia171717171718181818181919191919202020202121
Zimbabwe394040404141414142424242434343444444444545
Other SADC8791939698101103106108111114117120123126129132135139142146
Total-SADC423432438445451457464470477484491498505513520528536544552560569
Ethanol Production (B mol)yield (l/tc)
Malawi0.45%204044454750525456596164677073767983869094982298105
Mozambique0.45%20293945526069809210712314216519122025529534139445652760922609467
South Africa0.45%2043243443643844044244444644845045245445645846146346546746947147322473259
Swaziland0.45%208586868687878788888989899090919192929293932293212
Tanzania0.45%203537384041434446474951535557596163666870732272958
Zambia0.45%20374651576472809010011212514015617419521824327230434038022379715
Zimbabwe0.45%208888888989909090919192929293939494959595962295839
Other SADC0.45%2019419519619619719819920020120220320420520620720720820921021121222212202
Total-SADC0.45%20.0939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035221910395
Ethanol Yield litres/ha (assume B-molasses)
Malawi211521432162218222022221224122622282230223232344236523862408243024512473249625182541
Mozambique100510731120116512111259131013621417147315321593165717231792186419382016209621802267
South Africa134013621376139114051420143514501465148014961511152715431559157615921609162616431660
Swaziland194219581970198219952007202020322045205820712084209721102123213621492163217621902204
Tanzania211121402159217921992219223922592280230023212342236423852407242924512473249625182541
Zambia214821812204222722502274229723212345236923942419244424692495252025472573260026272654
Zimbabwe204820632076208821012113212621392152216521782191220522182231224522582272228623002313
Other SADC101810641090111611441172120012291260129013221354138714211456149115281565160316431683
Total-SADC138014171440146414881513154015671595162516561689172417601799184018841930198020332089
Production on total area, million litres (assume B-molasses)
Malawi404445475052545659616467707376798386909498
Mozambique2939455260698092107123142165191220255295341394456527609
South Africa432434436438440442444446448450452454456458461463465467469471473
Swaziland858686868787878888898989909091919292929393
Tanzania353738404143444647495153555759616366687073
Zambia3746515764728090100112125140156174195218243272304340380
Zimbabwe888888898990909091919292929393949495959596
Other SADC194195196196197198199200201202203204205206207207208209210211212
Total-SADC939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035
Production on existing area, million litres (assume B-molasses)
Malawi404141414242434343444445454546464747474848
Mozambique293132343536383941424446485052545658606365
South Africa432439444449453458463468472477482487493498503508513519524530535
Swaziland858686878788898990909191929293949495959697
Tanzania353535363636373737383838393939404041414142
Zambia373838383939404040414142424243434444454546
Zimbabwe888889899090919192939394949595969797989899
Other SADC194203207212218223228234240246252258264270277284291298305313320
Total-SADC9399609739869991013102710411056107010851101111611321148116511811198121612341252
Production on new area, million litres (assume B-molasses)
Malawi034689111315182022252730333639434650
Mozambique08121825334253668198119143171203241285336395464544
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania0234568910121315161819212325272931
Zambia0813192533415060718498114132152174200228259295334
Zimbabwe000000000000000000000
Other SADC000000000000000000000
Total-SADC02133476381101125151181215254298348405470544628724834959
Sugar Production (at max)%suc1000t
Malawi12.1%241261271281292304315328340354367382397412428445462480499518538
Mozambique12.0%173229264303349402463533614706813936107812411428164418932179250828883324
South Africa11.7%251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518
Swaziland13.8%584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584
Tanzania10.0%173184190196202208215222229236243251259267276285294303312322333
Zambia12.8%23529132336040044549555161368275884493910441162129314381600178019802202
Zimbabwe12.0%525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525
Other SADC10.0%965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965
Total-SADC54135555563957315835595060806225638765696774700472637556788582578678915396911029910989
Sugar Production (B strike only)%suc
Malawi11.4%227245255265275286297309321333346360374388403419435452470488507
Mozambique11.3%163216248286329379436502578665766882101511691345154917832053236327203132
South Africa11.0%237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372
Swaziland13.0%550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550
Tanzania9.4%163173179184190196202209215222229237244252260268277285294304313
Zambia12.0%2212743053393774194665195776427147958849841094121813541507167618652075
Zimbabwe11.3%494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494
Other SADC9.4%909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909
Total-SADC5099523353115399549656055727586360166188638165986842711774287778817486229128970210352
Sugar Production (A strike only)%suc
Malawi9.5%191206214222231240249259269280290302313326338352365379394410425
Mozambique9.5%1371812082402763183664214855586437408529811129130014961722198322832628
South Africa9.3%199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990
Swaziland10.9%462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462
Tanzania7.9%136145150155159165170175181186192198205211218225232239247255263
Zambia10.1%186230256284316352391435484539600667742826918102211371264140715651741
Zimbabwe9.5%415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415
Other SADC7.9%762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762
Total-SADC427943914457453046124704480649205049519353555537574259736233652768597235766081418687
Ethanol-cane
Malawi
Mozambique
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Other SADC
Million litres
Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane
Ethanol-sweet_sorghum
000000
41.0647597843501.1453654456120.5237932406220.18324212893.015272397824.2932667596
84.5790704111032.1845147213248.2369420454453.50061797836.210408578750.035649315
130.65252035721594.454841685383.4610851881700.53972495219.59345532377.2919784878
179.39905613622189.3469247141526.5306521424961.911527605913.1727794101106.1296632449
230.93714477282818.3065095208677.79333994261238.251228817416.9570795477136.6187868172
285.38994209373482.8365629347837.61060711141530.219172135920.9553987296168.8322062569
342.88546703584184.49940012031006.35818524851838.501776396825.1771370344202.845655556
403.55678218114924.91888778351184.42660889462163.812503722629.6320648815238.7378524476
467.54218073395705.78272600781372.22176430532506.892862070434.3303367607276.5906090186
534.98538016626528.84481144991570.1654577922868.513443525539.2825054508316.4889462678
606.03572275947395.92768471971778.69600430823249.474999582644.4995367448358.5212127427
680.84838328558308.9250648621998.26883698453650.609554695449.9928246997402.7792074004
759.58458407079269.80447395972229.35713833654072.781559422855.7742074275449.3583068366
842.411817701610280.60995498072472.45249389814516.889084541761.8559834483498.357597034
929.504077634911343.46488609352728.0655690554983.86505754568.2509286233549.8800097881
1021.042096985912460.57489478992996.72680988175474.678542990874.972313688604.0324639708
1117.213595778113634.23087526523278.98716881095990.336068218482.0339224077660.9260117987
1218.213536946314866.81211262153575.41885599476531.882995998589.4500703747720.6759902813
1324.244391394816160.78951758353886.61611724247100.40494573897.2356244706783.4021780247
1435.516412424117518.72897553864213.19603945397697.0292649141105.4060230173849.2289575784
Malawi
Mozambique
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Other SADC
Million litres
Scenarios for ethanol production from sweet sorghum
Table-14
Scenarios for Bio-ethanol from sweet sorghum1000 tcSET
Area Harvested (1000 ha)20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Check
Malawi00132640536679921051191321451581711841982112242372502632630
Mozambique001613214826438049641125128614471607176819292090225024112572273328933054321532150
South Africa000000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000000
Tanzania0039771161551932322713093483874254645035415806196576967347737730
Zambia007114121228235342449456563670677784791898910591130120112711342141214120
Zimbabwe001234567891011121314151516171819190
Other SADC00816233139475562707886941011091171251321401481561560
Total-SADC00292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758390
Yield (tc/ha)growthYieldSET
Malawi2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Mozambique2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
South Africa2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Swaziland2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Tanzania2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Zambia2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Zimbabwe2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Other SADC2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Total-SADC0000000000000000000000
Additional production
Production (tc)growthM tc
Malawi00112234456678910111213141516
Mozambique0071320283644526069798898109120131142154167180193
South Africa0000000000000000000000
Swaziland0000000000000000000000
Tanzania0023579101215171921242629313437404346
Zambia003691216192327313539434853576368737985
Zimbabwe0000000000001111111111
Other SADC0001112233344556677899
Total-SADC012243751657994110126143161179198217237258280303326350
Cumulative Change in area harvested (1000ha)
Malawi013264053667992105119132145158171184198211224237250263
Mozambique016132148264380496411251286144716071768192920902250241125722733289330543215
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania03977116155193232271309348387425464503541580619657696734773
Zambia071141212282353424494565636706777847918989105911301201127113421412
Zimbabwe01234567891011121314151516171819
Other SADC081623313947556270788694101109117125132140148156
Total-SADC0292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758395664
Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check
Malawi0.92%750418513117923128534340446853560668176084293010211117121813241436901
Mozambique0.92%750501103215942189281834834184492557066529739683099270102811134312461136341486716161175199017
South Africa0.92%75000000000000000000000900
Swaziland0.92%75000000000000000000000900
Tanzania0.92%75012124838352767883810061184137215701779199822292472272829973279357538874213904
Zambia0.92%7502204547019621238153018392164250728693249365140734517498454755990653271007697908
Zimbabwe0.92%750361013172125303439445056626875828997105900
Other SADC0.92%750245077106137169203239277316359403449498550604661721783849901
Total-SADC09101875289639765119632676008945103631185813433150911683718673206032263224764270022935331819320
Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)
Malawi031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Mozambique031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Zambia031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Zimbabwe031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Other SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Total-SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Table-14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table-15
Revised table (at top)
Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)
YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase
SADC total (cane, existing areas)93910131085116512521.45%
SADC total (cane, new areas)031184418823925
SADC total (all cane)93913241929304751778.91%
SADC total (sweet sorghum)05119118582060331819
SADC total (all)939644313787236503699620.16%
SADC demand & projections (energy basis)2032475431561558195
assumed percentage bio-ethanol:1%10%15%20%25%
Remaining allocation for export market736396894721749528801
relative to demand in other regions (volume basis)
China1%4%9%15%21%
Japan1%7%16%29%48%
United States0%1%2%3%4%
EU150%2%6%10%16%
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005
Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)
YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase
Malawi1691781892002111.08%168.5780639231178.3382400738188.6635018368199.5865660142211.1420436147
Mozambique1481571661751851.08%148.0142505948156.5838421834165.6495880253175.2402139988185.3861091259
South Africa156616561752185419611.08%1565.61024203881656.25448951661752.14677343421853.59093973041960.9084261341
Swaziland3523723944174411.08%351.8323079668372.2023681118393.7517950771416.5488707473440.6658303281
Tanzania1621711811912021.08%161.6668160735171.0268512161180.9288049788191.4040528623202.4857869172
Zambia1471551641741841.08%146.7626921079155.2598221258164.2489110843173.7584419653183.8185468318
Zimbabwe3523723944174411.08%
Other-SADC6476857257668111.08%
Total SADC354237473964419344361.08%
SADC Demand (10%)10251090114012801350
Remaining allocation25172657282429133086
as share of other demands
Brazil8%7%8%8%8%
China7%6%5%4%3%
India6%6%4%5%5%
United States0%0%0%0%0%
EU4%5%6%6%7%
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005
1990200120022010201520202025
Africa2.12.62.73.74.34.64.92.7
Brazil1.52.22.22.52.83.23.72.3
China2.34.95.29.210.712.314.24.5
India1.22.22.23.13.74.24.93.5
Japan5.35.45.35.35.45.45.30.0
United States a/17.019.619.722.524.225.827.31.4
Western Europe12.514.013.814.114.314.414.90.3
Africa4.0%3.1%1.4%1.3%2.6%
Brazil1.6%2.3%2.7%2.9%2.3%
China7.4%3.1%2.8%2.9%4.5%
India4.4%3.6%2.6%3.1%3.5%
Japan0.0%0.4%0.0%-0.4%0.0%
United States a/1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%1.4%
Western Europe0.3%0.3%0.1%0.7%0.3%
Africa3.74.34.64.9
Brazil2.52.83.23.7
China9.210.712.314.2
India3.13.74.24.9
Japan5.35.45.45.3
United States a/22.524.225.827.3
Western Europe14.114.314.414.9
159.0
1000 b/dayMl
2002200220052010201520202025
SADC217.8855138796126441423017327201372154222946
Brazil279.1454493151161991699418408206172356227244
China876.2997534247508526298489969104638120285138865
India176.9098630137102661167514466172661959922866
Japan1027.9095890411596505965059650607756077559650
United States8847.8328767123513443539679586420630727672428711522
EU2824.9697260274163934165261167498169874171062177001
SLCR-analysis
Revised table (at top)
Table 15: Area required for bio-ethanol production from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (1000 ha)
Area under caneArea under sweet sorghumTotal area for cane and sweet sorghumrelative to total agricultural arearelative to currently cultivated area
Country/Year20102025Average Annual Change2010202520102025currently cultivated
Malawi23394%66263893027%12%2.59Angola3.59
Mozambique5526912%804321585834847%76%4.58Botswana0.38
South Africa311285-1%003112850%2%15.712Congo7.8
Swaziland4342-0%0043423%22%0.192Lesotho0.334
Tanzania19293%1937732138022%16%5.1Madagascar3.55
Zambia3214311%353141238515564%29%5.289Malawi2.59
Zimbabwe4241-0%51947610%2%3.35Mauritius0.106
Other SADC169126-2%391562082820%2%16.58Mozambique4.58
Namibia0.82
SADC total6959742%14605839215568132%13%53.393South Africa15.712
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005Swaziland0.192
Tanzania5.1
Zambia5.289
Zimbabwe3.35
4.44Angola57.59
48.58Botswana25.98
99.64Congo22.8
1.392Lesotho2.334
48.1Madagascar27.55
35.289Malawi4.44
20.55Mauritius0.113
175.187Mozambique48.58
Namibia38.82
433.178South Africa99.64
Swaziland1.392
Tanzania48.1
Zambia35.289
Zimbabwe20.55
indices
km2
MalawiMozambiqueTanzaniaZambiaTotal
Total country (including water)1184808015909426907526122615372140569685111048890337311732Area of all four countries
Step in Analyses
5.2.2 Seasonal Land Cover Regions74224906446393546096585742490646435469658Area identified by Miombo Database as potentially suitable
5.2.3 Protected Areas59544602140292433480338595460240324338033Area after protected areas are removed
5.2.4 Steep Slopes58044529739892426579355580452939824267933Area after steep slopes (>16%) are removed
5.2.5 Global Land Cover31613773426421725960796330403228818526502Area after Global Land Cover categories are removed
5.2.6 Existing Sugarcane Farms31423770526421725960748322402928818526491Areas after currently cultivated areas are removed
5.2.7 Areas Smaller than 500ha25593469917741485053882255346917414855383After areas less than 500ha are removed
5.2.8 Unsuitable Soils20602338213421177738561
Remaining (1000 ha)2062338.2134.21177.73856.1
Total excluded3010227390221057145204470265
0
Total excluded883785276889216336074082145107
sweet-sorghum-area
available for cane (1000 ha)share of max:1
Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)SLCRcurrenttotalSLCR/availcurrent/availtotal/availadjust to max 5%, 10% or min 1%, 0.5%additionalYIELD (2000-2004)2025avgtc alloca
MalawiMalawi18502061922511.1%1.0%12.2%225206105115115236906%
MozambiqueMozambique440002338.22923675.3%0.1%5.4%236723381410010023382056%
South Africa839283233230.4%0.4%323067757500%
Swaziland120044443.7%3.7%4409710010000%
TanzaniaTanzania43000134.2161510.3%0.0%0.4%151134105115115154334%
ZambiaZambia300001177.71711953.9%0.1%4.0%1195117810712012014132434%
Zimbabwe1720043430.2%0.2%43010210510500%
Other SADC800071901900.2%0.2%190051757500%
414267100%
Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)Populationagricshare of Other-SADC to be assignednew areas - factoriesavail*poplitres/ha
Malawi1.8512105921510%22044031172140.9314011515147112
Mozambique44188631435030%54806311080.78772364063739629
South Africa83.9284502657890%860686064861371.51612419025734726
Swaziland1.2107734720%1897555001948.43346311574503
Tanzania4336977283840%8711871112212128.941567593722634651
Zambia3010812730215%40031402192179.49567167421499171
Zimbabwe17.212891784420%36531352062.49674868531016603
Other SADC158.60790595575075%1826791391211063.61339927488860518
379.785228346130738100%400854008549652
18267
Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)PopulationAgric
Angola54136259,680
Botswana25.61785783
Congo155277132,602
Lesotho21802696
Madagascar241740412,693
Malawi1.85121059,215
Mauritius0.0071221127
Mozambique441886314,350
Namibia381987926
South Africa83.928450265,789
Swaziland1.21077347
Tanzania433697728,384
Zambia30108127,302
Zimbabwe17.2128917,844
379.785228346130738
SADC-yields+ha
Low-inputsHigh-inputs
SuitableSuitabletotal-land-area
Angola1%10%124670
Malawi11%26%9408
Mozambique16%28%78409
South Africa0%1%121447
Swaziland0%0%1720
Tanzania4%13%88359
Zambia8%34%74339
Zimbabwe0%3%38685
Low-inputsHigh-inputs0.5
SuitableSuitablepotentialLow-inputsHigh-inputs
Malawi11%26%9408105424180.252631209
Mozambique16%28%7840912859217190.25321510860
South Africa0%1%121447012140607
Swaziland0%0%17200000
Tanzania4%13%883593093112220.257735611
Zambia8%34%743395650249040.25141212452
Zimbabwe0%3%386857713150.2519658
Other SADC1%10%124670623123420.251566171
2335675134
Corrected-Moz
Area Harv200020012002200320042005(est)5-Year Avg.1000 ha
Malawi1900018000180002000020000190001919
Mozambique2700027000300003000030000288002929
South Africa321913322000321234325956321571322535323323
Swaziland3650041000465004830748000440614444
Tanzania1500016000165001700017000163001616
Zambia1500018500185001700017000172001717
Zimbabwe4300042000400004500044000428004343
Other-SADC185881186977192999192810193190190371190190
Total-SADC663294671477683733696073690761681068681
Cane Production1000 tc
Malawi20000001900000190000021000002100000200000020002000
Mozambique3972764000004000004000004000003994553991440
South Africa2387616221156536230125542041893219094760215117892151221512
Swaziland38846004000000430000045000004500000423692042374237
Tanzania13550001500000175000020000002000000172100017211721
Zambia16000002000000200000018000001800000184000018401840
Zimbabwe42275004700000420000045330004121000435630043564356
Other-SADC93271309920750936830098046039807005964555896469646
Total-SADC46667668455772864693085445556535438227654571102245711
Yieldtc/ha
Malawi105106106105105105105
Mozambique15151313131450
South Africa74667263596767
Swaziland106989293949797
Tanzania9094106118118105105
Zambia107108108106106107107
Zimbabwe9811210510194102102
Other-SADC50534951515151
Total-SADC706869656367
Gareth-FAO
Sugar Production (F.O. Licht's)1999200020012002
Malawi (2)209216265259258257241197300207300215700260600Malawi
Mozambique50396717121220510845817390353500035000Mozambique
South Africa24382813229027512297222525182536000272900025040002626000South Africa
Swaziland (1)580529555605652584534183528241500680583014Swaziland
Tanzania124151168193227233173
Zambia (2)208243243239241252235197000189000243000232000Zambia
Zimbabwe (2)573545580501425420525583254585000638500554000Zimbabwe
Other-SADC776837685702738748
Mauritius (1)604684553569607603373300569000645597520887Mauritius
Others172153132133131144
Total-SADC495853734853542150505131
Sugar Yield (with C-strike)Corrected (estimated)inverseB-molA-mol
Malawi10.5%11.4%13.9%12.3%12.3%12.1%12.1%11.4%9.5%
Mozambique12.6%9.8%16.8%42.8%53.0%27.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%
South Africa10.2%13.3%10.0%13.5%12.0%11.7%11.7%11.0%9.3%
Swaziland14.9%13.2%12.9%13.4%14.5%13.8%13.8%13.0%10.9%
Tanzania9.2%10.1%9.6%9.7%11.4%10.0%10.0%9.4%7.9%
Zambia13.0%12.2%12.2%13.3%13.4%12.8%12.8%12.0%10.1%
Zimbabwe13.6%11.6%13.8%11.1%10.3%12.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%
Other-SADC8.3%8.4%7.3%7.2%7.5%7.8%10.0%9.4%7.9%
Mauritius11.8%11.8%11.3%10.9%11.7%11.5%11.5%
Others6.7%6.0%5.1%4.7%4.6%4.9%4.9%
Total-SADC10.6%11.8%10.3%11.9%11.5%11.2%11.2%8.909
SugarEthanol
kg/tcsugar/tcchangechange
C-mol115.511.6%8.8311.6%
B-mol108.810.9%94.2%12.716.8%
A-mol91.39.1%79.0%22.930.2%
juice75.8100.0%
Area HarvHa
Country200020012002200320042005Year
Angola950095009500950095009500
Congo360003650043000430004300043000
Madagascar673256778068235686906869068690
Malawi190001800018000200002000020000
Mauritius730567319772264716207200072000
Mozambique270002700030000300003000030000
South Africa321913322000321234325956321571312000
Swaziland365004100046500483074800048000
Tanzania150001600016500170001700017000
Zambia150001850018500170001700017000
Zimbabwe430004200040000450004400043000
Production
Country200020012002200320042005Year
Angola360000360000360000360000360000360000
Congo166900015600001911000178620017873001800000
Madagascar218863022084502223400245970524597052459705
Malawi200000019000001900000210000021000002100000
Mauritius510950057923004873900519869852000005200000
Mozambique397276400000400000400000400000400000
South Africa238761622115653623012554204189321909476021725100
Swaziland388460040000004300000450000045000004500000
Tanzania135500015000001750000200000020000002000000
Zambia160000020000002000000180000018000001800000
Zimbabwe422750047000004200000453300041210003290000
Yield
Country200020012002200320042005Year
Angola378947378947378947378947378947378947
Congo463611427397444419415395415651418605
Madagascar325084325826325845358088358088358088
Malawi105263210555561055556105000010500001050000
Mauritius699395791330674458725872722222722222
Mozambique147139148148133333133333133333133333
South Africa741696657035716380626432593796696317
Swaziland1064274975610924731931542937500937500
Tanzania9033339375001060606117647111764711176471
Zambia106666710810811081081105882410588241058824
Zimbabwe983140111904810500001007333936591765116
Land suitability for high input levels: Sweet Sorghum production in Africa Source: FAO
Areas suitable and available for sugarcane in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania, and ZambiaSource: UKwZN 2005, South Africa
Scenarios for SADC ethanol supply and demand
Chart4
939.284687280400
1013.1389144771311.35117835295118.8640894184
1085.2600587362843.772238746811858.2805446521
1164.50266180671882.382396985620603.0305287397
1251.79385437433924.800602286131819.1056729265
cane, existing areas
cane, new areas
SADC total (all cane)
sweet sorghum
Ethanol production in SADC from existing cane, new cane, and sweet sorghum
Ethanol-cane
Scenarios for Bioenergy from Sugarcane1000 tcSET
Year:20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Additional production
Production (tc)growth1000 tc
Malawi3.89%2000200021592243233024212515261327152820293030443162328634133546368438283977413142924459429222926%
Mozambique15.12%144014401908219725292911335238584442511458876777780189811033911902137021577318158209042406427703240642262456%
South Africa0.00%215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151200%
Swaziland0.00%4237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423700%
Tanzania3.17%1721172118321890195020122076214222102280235224272504258326652750283729273020311532143316321414934%
Zambia11.25%1840184022772533281831353488388143174803534359446613735681849105101291126812536139461551517260155151367534%
Zimbabwe0.00%4356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435600%
Other SADC0.00%9646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964600%
Total-SADC4555746752479274861449378502305118152244534345476756262579425983161956643526705370102735477744181847868368683640085100%
Yield (tc/hagrowthYieldSET
Malawi0.44%105105106106107107108108109109110110111111111112112113113114114115115
Mozambique3.53%505052545557596264666871737678818487909397100100
South Africa0.59%6767676768686969697070717172727273737474757575
Swaziland0.17%97979797979797989898989898999999999999100100100100
Tanzania0.45%105105106106107107107108108109109110110111111112112113113114114115115
Zambia0.58%107107108108109109110111111112113113114115115116117117118119119120120
Zimbabwe0.15%102102102102102103103103103103103103104104104104104104105105105105105
Other SADC1.98%5151525354555657585960626364656768697172747575
Total-SADC105105106107107108108109109110110110111111112112113113114114115115
Area Harvested (1000 ha)Check
Malawi3.6%19.019.020.321.021.722.523.324.124.925.726.627.528.529.530.531.532.633.734.936.137.338.638.6
Mozambique11.8%28.828.835.939.844.249.254.760.867.675.283.693.0103.4115.0127.9142.2158.1175.8195.5217.4241.7268.8268.8
South Africa-0.6%322.5322.5318.7316.9315.0313.2311.3309.5307.7305.9304.1302.4300.6298.8297.1295.4293.6291.9290.2288.5286.8285.1285.1
Swaziland-0.2%43.843.843.743.643.543.543.443.343.243.243.143.042.942.942.842.742.742.642.542.442.442.342.3
Tanzania2.8%16.416.417.317.718.218.719.219.720.320.821.422.022.623.223.824.525.125.826.527.228.028.728.7
Zambia11.2%17.217.221.123.325.828.531.534.938.642.747.252.257.763.970.678.186.495.6105.7117.0129.4143.1143.1
Zimbabwe-0.2%42.742.742.642.642.542.442.442.342.242.242.142.042.041.941.941.841.741.741.641.641.541.441.4
Other SADC-2.0%190.3190.3182.9179.5176.0172.6169.2165.9162.7159.6156.5153.4150.4147.5144.7141.8139.1136.4133.7131.2128.6126.1126.1
Total-SADC1.8%680.8680.8682.5684.3687.0690.5695.0700.6707.3715.3724.6735.6748.2762.7779.2798.0819.4843.5870.7901.3935.7974.2974.2
Change in area harvested (ha)
Malawi0133369572274777379982785588491594697910121047108311201158119812391282
Mozambique0708638874459495355086125681175738422936510413115801287614318159221770519687218922434427070
South Africa0-3768-1851-1851-1840-1830-1819-1808-1798-1787-1777-1766-1756-1746-1736-1725-1715-1705-1695-1685-1676
Swaziland0-148-74-74-74-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-73-72-72-72-72-72-72-72-72
Tanzania0904466481494507521535549564580595611628645663680699718737757
Zambia0386822242472273430243345370040934527500755386126677674958290916910142112181240813725
Zimbabwe0-127-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-63-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62-62
Other SADC0-7388-3479-3484-3415-3349-3284-3220-3158-3097-3037-2978-2920-2863-2808-2753-2700-2647-2596-2545-2496
Total-SADC01760180626613536449755516708797993781091712614144851654918827213442412527200306013436438529
Cumulative Change in area harvested (ha)Check
Malawi01333202927513498427050695896675176358550949610474114861253313616147361589517093183321961419614
Mozambique07086109741543220385258933201838829464035482464189746028618299058113377129298147003166690188583212926239996239996
South Africa0-3768-5619-7470-9310-11140-12959-14767-16564-18352-20128-21895-23651-25396-27132-28857-30573-32278-33973-35659-37335-37335
Swaziland0-148-222-296-369-443-516-589-662-735-808-881-953-1026-1098-1170-1242-1314-1386-1458-1530-1530
Tanzania09041370185023442851337239074457502156016196680774358081874394231012210840115781233512335
Zambia0386860928564112981432217668213682546029987349944053246658534346092869218783878852999747112156125880125880
Zimbabwe0-127-190-254-317-380-443-506-568-631-694-756-819-881-943-1005-1067-1129-1191-1253-1315-1315
Other SADC0-7388-10867-14351-17767-21116-24400-27621-30779-33875-36912-39889-42809-45672-48480-51233-53933-56580-59176-61721-64217-64217
Total-SADC01760356662279762142591981026517344964387454791674058189098438117265138609162735189935220536254900293429293429397825
Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check
Malawi0.87%7515116517318119019920821822924025126327628930331833334936538340190401
Mozambique0.87%751091461691962282653083574154825596497548761017118113711592184921472493902493
South Africa0.87%75162716421656167016851700171417291745176017751791180618221838185418701886190319191936901936
Swaziland0.87%7532132332632933233533834134434735035335635936236536837237537838190381
Tanzania0.87%7513014014515115816417117818519220020821722623524425426527628729890298
Zambia0.87%751391741952192462763093473894374905506186937788739801099123413841553901553
Zimbabwe0.87%7533033233533834134434735035335635936336636937237537938238538939290392
Other SADC0.87%7573073674374975676276977578278979680381081782483183884685386186890868
Total-SADC00.87%75.0353736573742383439344044416442964441460247814980520254505728604163936790723977488324832490
Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)
Malawi796481038211831984298540865287678882899991189238936094839608973598639994101251025910394
Mozambique378340584252444046374842505652805514575860136280655868487152746977998145850688829276
South Africa504751515226530353805459553956205703578658715957604461336222631464066500659566926790
Swaziland731474037480755876367716779778787960804381278212829783848471856086498739883089229015
Tanzania795080908199830784188529864387578874899191119232935494799604973298619992101251025910395
Zambia809082468370849286158741886889979128926193969532967198129955101001024710396105471070010856
Zimbabwe771178017881796280438125820882928377846285498636872588148904899590879180927493689464
Other SADC383440244137425643784504463347664903504351885337549056475809597661476324650566926884
Total-SADC519653595468558156985818594360746209635165006656682169957178737375797799803282808545
Production on new area (assume juice) - million litres
Malawi0111723293644526069788898109120133145159173188204
Mozambique02947699512516220525631638646856567881196611471358160418912226
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania07111520242934404551576470788593101110119128
Zambia032517397125157192232278329386451524607699803920105212001367
Zimbabwe000000000000000000000
Other SADC000000000000000000000
Total-SADC0791261792413113924835887078441000117813821615188221882538293933983925
Ethanol Production (C mol)yield (l/tc)Million litres
Malawi0.50%918202021222324252728293032333436383941434510
Mozambique0.50%91317202327313642485664758610011513415517920723927710
South Africa0.50%919519619719819920020120220320420520620720820921021121221321421510
Swaziland0.50%938393939393939404040404041414141424242424210
Tanzania0.50%916171718191920212122232425262728293031323310
Zambia0.50%91721232629323640455157637179889911012313815417310
Zimbabwe0.50%939404040404041414141414242424242434343434410
Other SADC0.50%987888889898990909191929293939494959595969610
Total-SADC0.50%9.042343644445346447548750151653255157259562165168472176381086492510
Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)
Malawi9529659759849931002101210221031104110511061107110811091110211121123113311441155
Mozambique4524835055255465685916156406666937217507818128458799159529911031
South Africa603614620627634641648655662669677684692699707714722730738746754
Swaziland8748828888949009069129189249309379439499569629699759829889951002
Tanzania9519649739829921001101110211030104010501060107010811091110111121123113311441155
Zambia967982993100410151026103710481060107110831095110711191131114311551168118111931206
Zimbabwe92292993594194895496096697397998599299810051011101810251031103810451052
Other SADC458479491503516529542555569583598613628644660676693710728746765
Total-SADC621638649660671683695708721735749764780797815834855876899923949
Production on existing area (assume C-molasses)
Malawi181819191919191920202020202121212121222222
Mozambique131415151616171818192021222223242526272930
South Africa195198200202204207209211214216218221223225228230233235238241243
Swaziland383939393940404041414141424242424343434444
Tanzania161616161616171717171717181818181818191919
Zambia171717171718181818181919191919202020202121
Zimbabwe394040404141414142424242434343444444444545
Other SADC8791939698101103106108111114117120123126129132135139142146
Total-SADC423432438445451457464470477484491498505513520528536544552560569
Ethanol Production (B mol)yield (l/tc)
Malawi0.45%204044454750525456596164677073767983869094982298105
Mozambique0.45%20293945526069809210712314216519122025529534139445652760922609467
South Africa0.45%2043243443643844044244444644845045245445645846146346546746947147322473259
Swaziland0.45%208586868687878788888989899090919192929293932293212
Tanzania0.45%203537384041434446474951535557596163666870732272958
Zambia0.45%20374651576472809010011212514015617419521824327230434038022379715
Zimbabwe0.45%208888888989909090919192929293939494959595962295839
Other SADC0.45%2019419519619619719819920020120220320420520620720720820921021121222212202
Total-SADC0.45%20.0939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035221910395
Ethanol Yield litres/ha (assume B-molasses)
Malawi211521432162218222022221224122622282230223232344236523862408243024512473249625182541
Mozambique100510731120116512111259131013621417147315321593165717231792186419382016209621802267
South Africa134013621376139114051420143514501465148014961511152715431559157615921609162616431660
Swaziland194219581970198219952007202020322045205820712084209721102123213621492163217621902204
Tanzania211121402159217921992219223922592280230023212342236423852407242924512473249625182541
Zambia214821812204222722502274229723212345236923942419244424692495252025472573260026272654
Zimbabwe204820632076208821012113212621392152216521782191220522182231224522582272228623002313
Other SADC101810641090111611441172120012291260129013221354138714211456149115281565160316431683
Total-SADC138014171440146414881513154015671595162516561689172417601799184018841930198020332089
Production on total area, million litres (assume B-molasses)
Malawi404445475052545659616467707376798386909498
Mozambique2939455260698092107123142165191220255295341394456527609
South Africa432434436438440442444446448450452454456458461463465467469471473
Swaziland858686868787878888898989909091919292929393
Tanzania353738404143444647495153555759616366687073
Zambia3746515764728090100112125140156174195218243272304340380
Zimbabwe888888898990909091919292929393949495959596
Other SADC194195196196197198199200201202203204205206207207208209210211212
Total-SADC939967986100610281052107911081141117712181264131413711436150815891681178419022035
Production on existing area, million litres (assume B-molasses)
Malawi404141414242434343444445454546464747474848
Mozambique293132343536383941424446485052545658606365
South Africa432439444449453458463468472477482487493498503508513519524530535
Swaziland858686878788898990909191929293949495959697
Tanzania353535363636373737383838393939404041414142
Zambia373838383939404040414142424243434444454546
Zimbabwe888889899090919192939394949595969797989899
Other SADC194203207212218223228234240246252258264270277284291298305313320
Total-SADC9399609739869991013102710411056107010851101111611321148116511811198121612341252
Production on new area, million litres (assume B-molasses)
Malawi034689111315182022252730333639434650
Mozambique08121825334253668198119143171203241285336395464544
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania0234568910121315161819212325272931
Zambia0813192533415060718498114132152174200228259295334
Zimbabwe000000000000000000000
Other SADC000000000000000000000
Total-SADC02133476381101125151181215254298348405470544628724834959
Sugar Production (at max)%suc1000t
Malawi12.1%241261271281292304315328340354367382397412428445462480499518538
Mozambique12.0%173229264303349402463533614706813936107812411428164418932179250828883324
South Africa11.7%251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518251825182518
Swaziland13.8%584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584584
Tanzania10.0%173184190196202208215222229236243251259267276285294303312322333
Zambia12.8%23529132336040044549555161368275884493910441162129314381600178019802202
Zimbabwe12.0%525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525525
Other SADC10.0%965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965965
Total-SADC54135555563957315835595060806225638765696774700472637556788582578678915396911029910989
Sugar Production (B strike only)%suc
Malawi11.4%227245255265275286297309321333346360374388403419435452470488507
Mozambique11.3%163216248286329379436502578665766882101511691345154917832053236327203132
South Africa11.0%237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372237223722372
Swaziland13.0%550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550550
Tanzania9.4%163173179184190196202209215222229237244252260268277285294304313
Zambia12.0%2212743053393774194665195776427147958849841094121813541507167618652075
Zimbabwe11.3%494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494494
Other SADC9.4%909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909909
Total-SADC5099523353115399549656055727586360166188638165986842711774287778817486229128970210352
Sugar Production (A strike only)%suc
Malawi9.5%191206214222231240249259269280290302313326338352365379394410425
Mozambique9.5%1371812082402763183664214855586437408529811129130014961722198322832628
South Africa9.3%199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990199019901990
Swaziland10.9%462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462462
Tanzania7.9%136145150155159165170175181186192198205211218225232239247255263
Zambia10.1%186230256284316352391435484539600667742826918102211371264140715651741
Zimbabwe9.5%415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415415
Other SADC7.9%762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762762
Total-SADC427943914457453046124704480649205049519353555537574259736233652768597235766081418687
Ethanol-cane
151.3079664871108.94173587071627.4525094142320.5398746843130.2005051622139.2033291681329.5714472039729.7248530452
164.7395372478145.63516117341641.643531692323.3349107768139.8021264682173.7850017557332.4452365909736.0878907292
172.6438582412169.11708466551655.9582965137326.1543189595145.4955126621195.0198848758335.3440847793742.5064126801
180.9274342175196.38518675921670.3978828863328.9983117517151.4207597524218.8494698204338.2682102763748.9809027085
189.6084621022228.04994335581684.9633792261331.8671035256157.5873101821245.5908046053341.2178334943755.5118488434
198.7060119228264.82026227541699.6558834397334.7609105229164.0049909341275.5996775143344.1931767677762.0997433694
208.2400686999307.51935422411714.4765030075337.6799508706170.6840291912309.2753507935347.1944643698768.7450828638
218.2315763501357.10316276351729.4263550667340.624444598177.6350686344347.0658727586350.2219225291775.448368234
228.7024836938414.68176589221744.5065664958343.5946136528184.869186404389.4740389902353.2757794473782.2101047549
239.6757926718481.54422837571759.7182739993346.5906819182192.3979107528437.0640819325356.3562653155789.0308021076
251.1756088743559.18746121641775.0626241936349.6128752295200.2332394169490.4691778963359.4636123322795.9109744173
263.2271944951649.34973436681790.5407736935352.6614213913208.3876587355550.3998713476362.5980547206802.8511402924
275.8570238259754.04959296651806.1538891988355.7365501945216.8741635491617.6535285639365.7598287464809.8518228634
289.0928414143875.63104835551821.9031475832358.8384934338225.7062779079693.1249464382368.9491727353816.9135498223
302.96372301091016.81605559631837.7897359819361.9674849251234.8980766235777.8182575788372.1663270912824.0368534625
317.50013944171180.76545236731853.8148518821365.1237605232244.464207699872.860290099375.4115343143831.222270719
332.73402354461371.14972352261869.9797032126368.3075581393254.4199156712979.5155598473378.6850390194838.4703432086
348.69884031821592.23117558771886.2855084352371.5191177592264.7810659051099.2030945457381.9870879541845.781617271
365.42966043561848.95936090781902.7334966362374.7586814616275.56416987571233.5153136795385.3179300178853.1566440097
382.96323728582147.08188779621919.3249076197378.0264934356286.7864114821384.2392153295388.6778162801860.5959793339
401.33808771192493.27309748921936.060992381.3228298.46567443021553.3801518365392.067868.100184
Malawi
Mozambique
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Other SADC
Million litres
Scenarios for Ethanol production from cane
Ethanol-sweet_sorghum
000000
41.0647597843501.1453654456120.5237932406220.18324212893.015272397824.2932667596
84.5790704111032.1845147213248.2369420454453.50061797836.210408578750.035649315
130.65252035721594.454841685383.4610851881700.53972495219.59345532377.2919784878
179.39905613622189.3469247141526.5306521424961.911527605913.1727794101106.1296632449
230.93714477282818.3065095208677.79333994261238.251228817416.9570795477136.6187868172
285.38994209373482.8365629347837.61060711141530.219172135920.9553987296168.8322062569
342.88546703584184.49940012031006.35818524851838.501776396825.1771370344202.845655556
403.55678218114924.91888778351184.42660889462163.812503722629.6320648815238.7378524476
467.54218073395705.78272600781372.22176430532506.892862070434.3303367607276.5906090186
534.98538016626528.84481144991570.1654577922868.513443525539.2825054508316.4889462678
606.03572275947395.92768471971778.69600430823249.474999582644.4995367448358.5212127427
680.84838328558308.9250648621998.26883698453650.609554695449.9928246997402.7792074004
759.58458407079269.80447395972229.35713833654072.781559422855.7742074275449.3583068366
842.411817701610280.60995498072472.45249389814516.889084541761.8559834483498.357597034
929.504077634911343.46488609352728.0655690554983.86505754568.2509286233549.8800097881
1021.042096985912460.57489478992996.72680988175474.678542990874.972313688604.0324639708
1117.213595778113634.23087526523278.98716881095990.336068218482.0339224077660.9260117987
1218.213536946314866.81211262153575.41885599476531.882995998589.4500703747720.6759902813
1324.244391394816160.78951758353886.61611724247100.40494573897.2356244706783.4021780247
1435.516412424117518.72897553864213.19603945397697.0292649141105.4060230173849.2289575784
Malawi
Mozambique
South Africa
Swaziland
Tanzania
Zambia
Zimbabwe
Other SADC
Million litres
Scenarios for ethanol production from sweet sorghum
Table-14
Scenarios for Bio-ethanol from sweet sorghum1000 tcSET
Area Harvested (1000 ha)20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Check
Malawi00132640536679921051191321451581711841982112242372502632630
Mozambique001613214826438049641125128614471607176819292090225024112572273328933054321532150
South Africa000000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000000
Tanzania0039771161551932322713093483874254645035415806196576967347737730
Zambia007114121228235342449456563670677784791898910591130120112711342141214120
Zimbabwe001234567891011121314151516171819190
Other SADC00816233139475562707886941011091171251321401481561560
Total-SADC00292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758390
Yield (tc/ha)growthYieldSET
Malawi2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Mozambique2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
South Africa2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Swaziland2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Tanzania2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Zambia2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Zimbabwe2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Other SADC2.05%4040414243434445464748495051525354555658596060
Total-SADC0000000000000000000000
Additional production
Production (tc)growthM tc
Malawi00112234456678910111213141516
Mozambique0071320283644526069798898109120131142154167180193
South Africa0000000000000000000000
Swaziland0000000000000000000000
Tanzania0023579101215171921242629313437404346
Zambia003691216192327313539434853576368737985
Zimbabwe0000000000001111111111
Other SADC0001112233344556677899
Total-SADC012243751657994110126143161179198217237258280303326350
Cumulative Change in area harvested (1000ha)
Malawi013264053667992105119132145158171184198211224237250263
Mozambique016132148264380496411251286144716071768192920902250241125722733289330543215
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania03977116155193232271309348387425464503541580619657696734773
Zambia071141212282353424494565636706777847918989105911301201127113421412
Zimbabwe01234567891011121314151516171819
Other SADC081623313947556270788694101109117125132140148156
Total-SADC0292584876116814601752204423362628291932113503379540874379467149635255554758395664
Ethanol Production (million litres)yield (l/tc)200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025Check
Malawi0.92%750418513117923128534340446853560668176084293010211117121813241436901
Mozambique0.92%750501103215942189281834834184492557066529739683099270102811134312461136341486716161175199017
South Africa0.92%75000000000000000000000900
Swaziland0.92%75000000000000000000000900
Tanzania0.92%75012124838352767883810061184137215701779199822292472272829973279357538874213904
Zambia0.92%7502204547019621238153018392164250728693249365140734517498454755990653271007697908
Zimbabwe0.92%750361013172125303439445056626875828997105900
Other SADC0.92%750245077106137169203239277316359403449498550604661721783849901
Total-SADC09101875289639765119632676008945103631185813433150911683718673206032263224764270022935331819320
Ethanol Yield (litres/ha)
Malawi031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Mozambique031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
South Africa000000000000000000000
Swaziland000000000000000000000
Tanzania031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Zambia031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Zimbabwe031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Other SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Total-SADC031183211330734053507361137193830394440624183430844364568470548454990513852925449
Table-14
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
Table-15
Revised table (at top)
Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)
YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase
cane, existing areas93910131085116512521.45%
cane, new areas031184418823925
SADC total (all cane)93913241929304751778.91%
sweet sorghum05119118582060331819
Scenarios for ethanol production in SADC939644313787236503699620.16%
SADC petrol demand - projections (energy basis)203247543156155819520.30%
assumed % ethanol:1%10%15%20%25%
Remaining allocation for export market73639689472174952880120.12%
relative to demand in other regions (volume basis)
China1%4%9%15%21%
Japan1%7%16%29%48%
United States0%1%2%3%4%
EU150%2%6%10%16%
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005
Table 14: Bio-ethanol production potential from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (million litres)
YEAR20052010201520202025Average Annual Increase
Malawi1691781892002111.08%168.5780639231178.3382400738188.6635018368199.5865660142211.1420436147
Mozambique1481571661751851.08%148.0142505948156.5838421834165.6495880253175.2402139988185.3861091259
South Africa156616561752185419611.08%1565.61024203881656.25448951661752.14677343421853.59093973041960.9084261341
Swaziland3523723944174411.08%351.8323079668372.2023681118393.7517950771416.5488707473440.6658303281
Tanzania1621711811912021.08%161.6668160735171.0268512161180.9288049788191.4040528623202.4857869172
Zambia1471551641741841.08%146.7626921079155.2598221258164.2489110843173.7584419653183.8185468318
Zimbabwe3523723944174411.08%
Other-SADC6476857257668111.08%
Total SADC354237473964419344361.08%
SADC Demand (10%)10251090114012801350
Remaining allocation25172657282429133086
as share of other demands
Brazil8%7%8%8%8%
China7%6%5%4%3%
India6%6%4%5%5%
United States0%0%0%0%0%
EU4%5%6%6%7%
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005
1990200120022010201520202025
Africa2.12.62.73.74.34.64.92.7
Brazil1.52.22.22.52.83.23.72.3
China2.34.95.29.210.712.314.24.5
India1.22.22.23.13.74.24.93.5
Japan5.35.45.35.35.45.45.30.0
United States a/17.019.619.722.524.225.827.31.4
Western Europe12.514.013.814.114.314.414.90.3
Africa4.0%3.1%1.4%1.3%2.6%
Brazil1.6%2.3%2.7%2.9%2.3%
China7.4%3.1%2.8%2.9%4.5%
India4.4%3.6%2.6%3.1%3.5%
Japan0.0%0.4%0.0%-0.4%0.0%
United States a/1.7%1.5%1.3%1.1%1.4%
Western Europe0.3%0.3%0.1%0.7%0.3%
Africa3.74.34.64.9
Brazil2.52.83.23.7
China9.210.712.314.2
India3.13.74.24.9
Japan5.35.45.45.3
United States a/22.524.225.827.3
Western Europe14.114.314.414.9
159.0
1000 b/dayMl
2002200220052010201520202025
SADC217.8855138796126441423017327201372154222946
Brazil279.1454493151161991699418408206172356227244
China876.2997534247508526298489969104638120285138865
India176.9098630137102661167514466172661959922866
Japan1027.9095890411596505965059650607756077559650
United States8847.8328767123513443539679586420630727672428711522
EU2824.9697260274163934165261167498169874171062177001
Table-15
cane, existing areas
cane, new areas
SADC total (all cane)
sweet sorghum
Ethanol production in SADC from existing cane, new cane, and sweet sorghum
SLCR-analysis
Revised table (at top)
Table 15: Area required for bio-ethanol production from sugarcane and sweet sorghum (1000 ha)
Area under caneArea under sweet sorghumTotal area for cane and sweet sorghumrelative to total agricultural arearelative to currently cultivated area
Country/Year20102025Average Annual Change2010202520102025currently cultivated
Malawi23394%66263893027%12%2.59Angola3.59
Mozambique5526912%804321585834847%76%4.58Botswana0.38
South Africa311285-1%003112850%2%15.712Congo7.8
Swaziland4342-0%0043423%22%0.192Lesotho0.334
Tanzania19293%1937732138022%16%5.1Madagascar3.55
Zambia3214311%353141238515564%29%5.289Malawi2.59
Zimbabwe4241-0%51947610%2%3.35Mauritius0.106
Other SADC169126-2%391562082820%2%16.58Mozambique4.58
Namibia0.82
SADC total6959742%14605839215568132%13%53.393South Africa15.712
Sources: demand projections from IEA 2005, U.S.DOE/EIA 2005Swaziland0.192
Tanzania5.1
Zambia5.289
Zimbabwe3.35
4.44Angola57.59
48.58Botswana25.98
99.64Congo22.8
1.392Lesotho2.334
48.1Madagascar27.55
35.289Malawi4.44
20.55Mauritius0.113
175.187Mozambique48.58
Namibia38.82
433.178South Africa99.64
Swaziland1.392
Tanzania48.1
Zambia35.289
Zimbabwe20.55
indices
km2
MalawiMozambiqueTanzaniaZambiaTotal
Total country (including water)1184808015909426907526122615372140569685111048890337311732Area of all four countries
Step in Analyses
5.2.2 Seasonal Land Cover Regions74224906446393546096585742490646435469658Area identified by Miombo Database as potentially suitable
5.2.3 Protected Areas59544602140292433480338595460240324338033Area after protected areas are removed
5.2.4 Steep Slopes58044529739892426579355580452939824267933Area after steep slopes (>16%) are removed
5.2.5 Global Land Cover31613773426421725960796330403228818526502Area after Global Land Cover categories are removed
5.2.6 Existing Sugarcane Farms31423770526421725960748322402928818526491Areas after currently cultivated areas are removed
5.2.7 Areas Smaller than 500ha25593469917741485053882255346917414855383After areas less than 500ha are removed
5.2.8 Unsuitable Soils20602338213421177738561
Remaining (1000 ha)2062338.2134.21177.73856.1
Total excluded3010227390221057145204470265
0
Total excluded883785276889216336074082145107
sweet-sorghum-area
available for cane (1000 ha)share of max:1
Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)SLCRcurrenttotalSLCR/availcurrent/availtotal/availadjust to max 5%, 10% or min 1%, 0.5%additionalYIELD (2000-2004)2025avgtc alloca
MalawiMalawi18502061922511.1%1.0%12.2%225206105115115236906%
MozambiqueMozambique440002338.22923675.3%0.1%5.4%236723381410010023382056%
South Africa839283233230.4%0.4%323067757500%
Swaziland120044443.7%3.7%4409710010000%
TanzaniaTanzania43000134.2161510.3%0.0%0.4%151134105115115154334%
ZambiaZambia300001177.71711953.9%0.1%4.0%1195117810712012014132434%
Zimbabwe1720043430.2%0.2%43010210510500%
Other SADC800071901900.2%0.2%190051757500%
414267100%
Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)Populationagricshare of Other-SADC to be assignednew areas - factoriesavail*poplitres/ha
Malawi1.8512105921510%22044031172140.9314011515147112
Mozambique44188631435030%54806311080.78772364063739629
South Africa83.9284502657890%860686064861371.51612419025734726
Swaziland1.2107734720%1897555001948.43346311574503
Tanzania4336977283840%8711871112212128.941567593722634651
Zambia3010812730215%40031402192179.49567167421499171
Zimbabwe17.212891784420%36531352062.49674868531016603
Other SADC158.60790595575075%1826791391211063.61339927488860518
379.785228346130738100%400854008549652
18267
Available Agricultural Land (Million ha)PopulationAgric
Angola54136259,680
Botswana25.61785783
Congo155277132,602
Lesotho21802696
Madagascar241740412,693
Malawi1.85121059,215
Mauritius0.0071221127
Mozambique441886314,350
Namibia381987926
South Africa83.928450265,789
Swaziland1.21077347
Tanzania433697728,384
Zambia30108127,302
Zimbabwe17.2128917,844
379.785228346130738
SADC-yields+ha
Low-inputsHigh-inputs
SuitableSuitabletotal-land-area
Angola1%10%124670
Malawi11%26%9408
Mozambique16%28%78409
South Africa0%1%121447
Swaziland0%0%1720
Tanzania4%13%88359
Zambia8%34%74339
Zimbabwe0%3%38685
Low-inputsHigh-inputs0.5
SuitableSuitablepotentialLow-inputsHigh-inputs
Malawi11%26%9408105424180.252631209
Mozambique16%28%7840912859217190.25321510860
South Africa0%1%121447012140607
Swaziland0%0%17200000
Tanzania4%13%883593093112220.257735611
Zambia8%34%743395650249040.25141212452
Zimbabwe0%3%386857713150.2519658
Other SADC1%10%124670623123420.251566171
2335675134
Corrected-Moz
Area Harv200020012002200320042005(est)5-Year Avg.1000 ha
Malawi1900018000180002000020000190001919
Mozambique2700027000300003000030000288002929
South Africa321913322000321234325956321571322535323323
Swaziland3650041000465004830748000440614444
Tanzania1500016000165001700017000163001616
Zambia1500018500185001700017000172001717
Zimbabwe4300042000400004500044000428004343
Other-SADC185881186977192999192810193190190371190190
Total-SADC663294671477683733696073690761681068681
Cane Production1000 tc
Malawi20000001900000190000021000002100000200000020002000
Mozambique3972764000004000004000004000003994553991440
South Africa2387616221156536230125542041893219094760215117892151221512
Swaziland38846004000000430000045000004500000423692042374237
Tanzania13550001500000175000020000002000000172100017211721
Zambia16000002000000200000018000001800000184000018401840
Zimbabwe42275004700000420000045330004121000435630043564356
Other-SADC93271309920750936830098046039807005964555896469646
Total-SADC46667668455772864693085445556535438227654571102245711
Yieldtc/ha
Malawi105106106105105105105
Mozambique15151313131450
South Africa74667263596767
Swaziland106989293949797
Tanzania9094106118118105105
Zambia107108108106106107107
Zimbabwe9811210510194102102
Other-SADC50534951515151
Total-SADC706869656367
Gareth-FAO
Sugar Production (F.O. Licht's)1999200020012002
Malawi (2)209216265259258257241197300207300215700260600Malawi
Mozambique50396717121220510845817390353500035000Mozambique
South Africa24382813229027512297222525182536000272900025040002626000South Africa
Swaziland (1)580529555605652584534183528241500680583014Swaziland
Tanzania124151168193227233173
Zambia (2)208243243239241252235197000189000243000232000Zambia
Zimbabwe (2)573545580501425420525583254585000638500554000Zimbabwe
Other-SADC776837685702738748
Mauritius (1)604684553569607603373300569000645597520887Mauritius
Others172153132133131144
Total-SADC495853734853542150505131
Sugar Yield (with C-strike)Corrected (estimated)inverseB-molA-mol
Malawi10.5%11.4%13.9%12.3%12.3%12.1%12.1%11.4%9.5%
Mozambique12.6%9.8%16.8%42.8%53.0%27.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%
South Africa10.2%13.3%10.0%13.5%12.0%11.7%11.7%11.0%9.3%
Swaziland14.9%13.2%12.9%13.4%14.5%13.8%13.8%13.0%10.9%
Tanzania9.2%10.1%9.6%9.7%11.4%10.0%10.0%9.4%7.9%
Zambia13.0%12.2%12.2%13.3%13.4%12.8%12.8%12.0%10.1%
Zimbabwe13.6%11.6%13.8%11.1%10.3%12.0%12.0%11.3%9.5%
Other-SADC8.3%8.4%7.3%7.2%7.5%7.8%10.0%9.4%7.9%
Mauritius11.8%11.8%11.3%10.9%11.7%11.5%11.5%
Others6.7%6.0%5.1%4.7%4.6%4.9%4.9%
Total-SADC10.6%11.8%10.3%11.9%11.5%11.2%11.2%8.909
SugarEthanol
kg/tcsugar/tcchangechange
C-mol115.511.6%8.8311.6%
B-mol108.810.9%94.2%12.716.8%
A-mol91.39.1%79.0%22.930.2%
juice75.8100.0%
Area HarvHa
Country200020012002200320042005Year
Angola950095009500950095009500
Congo360003650043000430004300043000
Madagascar673256778068235686906869068690
Malawi190001800018000200002000020000
Mauritius730567319772264716207200072000
Mozambique270002700030000300003000030000
South Africa321913322000321234325956321571312000
Swaziland365004100046500483074800048000
Tanzania150001600016500170001700017000
Zambia150001850018500170001700017000
Zimbabwe430004200040000450004400043000
Production
Country200020012002200320042005Year
Angola360000360000360000360000360000360000
Congo166900015600001911000178620017873001800000
Madagascar218863022084502223400245970524597052459705
Malawi200000019000001900000210000021000002100000
Mauritius510950057923004873900519869852000005200000
Mozambique397276400000400000400000400000400000
South Africa238761622115653623012554204189321909476021725100
Swaziland388460040000004300000450000045000004500000
Tanzania135500015000001750000200000020000002000000
Zambia160000020000002000000180000018000001800000
Zimbabwe422750047000004200000453300041210003290000
Yield
Country200020012002200320042005Year
Angola378947378947378947378947378947378947
Congo463611427397444419415395415651418605
Madagascar325084325826325845358088358088358088
Malawi105263210555561055556105000010500001050000
Mauritius699395791330674458725872722222722222
Mozambique147139148148133333133333133333133333
South Africa741696657035716380626432593796696317
Swaziland1064274975610924731931542937500937500
Tanzania9033339375001060606117647111764711176471
Zambia106666710810811081081105882410588241058824
Zimbabwe983140111904810500001007333936591765116
Chart6
203.2824204894736.0022667911
2475.27552800783968.0786542406
4315.0073393659472.3055027702
6154.739150722117495.17643681
8195.168977863728800.5311517232
SADC demand
export market
Scenarios for internal SADC and export market demand
Ethanol-cane
Scenarios for Bioenergy from Sugarcane1000 tcSET
Year:20042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820192020202120222023202420252025Additional production
Production (tc)growth1000 tc
Malawi3.89%2000200021592243233024212515261327152820293030443162328634133546368438283977413142924459429222926%
Mozambique15.12%144014401908219725292911335238584442511458876777780189811033911902137021577318158209042406427703240642262456%
South Africa0.00%215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151221512215122151200%
Swaziland0.00%4237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423742374237423700%
Tanzania3.17%1721172118321890195020122076214222102280235224272504258326652750283729273020311532143316321414934%
Zambia11.25%1840184022772533281831353488388143174803534359446613735681849105101291126812536139461551517260155151367534%
Zimbabwe0.00%4356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435643564356435600%
Other SADC0.00%9646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964696469646964600%
Total-SADC4555746752479274861449378502305118152244534345476756262579425983161956643526705370102735477744181847868368683640085100%
Yield (tc/hagrowthYieldSET
Malawi0.44%105105106106107107108108109109110110111111111112112113113114114115115
Mozambique3.53%505052545557596264666871737678818487909397100100
South Africa0.59%6767676768686969697070717172727273737474757575
Swaz