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Frank RaesJoint Research Centre
1
Climate –KIC Innovation Festival, Bologna2 October, 2012
The EU Low Carbon Roadmap to 2050
Meinshausen Nature 2009
emissions without (rood) and with (blauw) policies
Meinshausen 2009
by 2050, we needto be able to reduce CO2 emissions by
80 Gt CO2 /yr
greenhouse gas emissions without and with policies
Decarbonising the globalpower sector by 2050would yield a reduction of
60 Gt CO2 /yr
requires building a zero-carbon power capacityof 13 000 GW
Montalto di Castro (Italy) power stations
instead building 6500 of these2000 MWe nuclear PP
not building 4360 of these3600 MWe oil&gas PP
Decarbonizing the global power sector by 2050 means
OR building 300000 of these44 MWe/0,8 km2 PV parks
Decarbonizing the global power requires 240 000 km2 of PV
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Why does EU insist on a decarbonization policy?
In 2010 EU CO2 emissions are only10% of global emissions
Decarbonization takes place “automatically”
JRC EDGAR emission inventory
7
Why does EU insist on a decarbonization policy?
- gives a purpose to the EU- jobs, competitiveness- be a credible partner in the international climate negotiations
8
Based on model and scenario analyses for the World and EU (e.g. POLES, PRIMES,..)
HOW?
The EU Low Carbon Roadmap to 20502012 Communication from the Commission to the EP and the Council
A Roadmap for moving towards a competitive low carbon economy in 2050
EU GHG emissions towards an 80% domestic reduction (100%=1990)
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The EU Low Carbon Road Map
ENERGY SECTOR
- Shift to electricity as energy carrier in transoprt (electric vehicles,...) and households (heat pumps, ...
- Absorb extra demand for electricity by energy efficiency
- Low carbon electricity production (RES, CCS, nuclear): nearly 100% carbon-free by 2050
- Networks and an EU energy market - demand driven management, smart grids- Public & Private Investment in:
R&D, demonstration projects, early deployment
number power plants to be built in the EU per decade to achieve an 80% CO2 emission reduction by 2050
35,000
7,000
28,000
35,000
7,000
28,000
38,000
10,000
28,000
46,000
11,000
35,000
40,000
25,000
Wind offshoreWind onshore
0
2040-2050
15,000
2030-2040
15,000
2020-2030
11,000
2010-2020
5,500
2000-2010
1,000
1990-2000
Wind turbines1
Solar2
Actual 80% RES pathway
Total by 2050 :1500 GW
2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050: 80% RES scenario
2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050
exchange / trade of energy accross Europe needed
2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050
the EU energy network
2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050
the map of ENEROPA
THANK YOU
15
The EU Low Carbon Road Map
NEED FOR SUSTAINED INVESTMENT
- Additional 270 bE/yr over the next 40 years =
- 1,5 % of GDP each year on top of e.g. 19% of GDP in 2009 (China 48%, India 35%, S-Korea 26% in 2009)
- 1,5% is about what was lost due to the crisis:hence: recovery through investments in low carbon technologies (see stimulus packages)
- EU energy bill is 175-350 bE/yr
- ETS- Public-private partnerships to overcome risks
Coal2
40353120
239
107-83%
Actual 80% RES pathway
1020105317
94
2040-20502030-20402020-20302010-20202000-20101990-20001980-1990
-79%
89812
21
35
-66%
Gas1
Nuclear3
Total by 2050: 150 GW
2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 :80% RES scenario
number power plants to be built per decade contributing to a 80% CO2 emission reduction by 2050
consumption production
policies
Policies
ICT
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The EU Low Carbon Road Map
TRANSORT SECTOR
- Up till 2025 Fuel efficiency: more km per unit of energy (hybrid, transport )
- Later more : new fuels and prulsion systems EV (batteries, fuel cells, biofuels)
- Transport networks
- CO2 Standards and taxation- Consider co-benifts (air pollution, congestion, oil-
independence,...)- R&D, demonstraion projects and early
deployement
19
The EU Low Carbon Road Map
BUILDING SECTOR
- 2011 Directive on energy perfomance of new builings: must all be zero-energy from 2021 onwards (financed through fuel saving)
- Refurbishing old buildings (200bE public &private investment over next 10 years
- Use of electricity for heating (Heat pumps, ...) and to renewables (solar heating, biomass,...)
- Green public procurement
20
The EU Low Carbon Road Map
INDUSTRIAL SECTOR
- resource efficient production processes- Recycling- Emission reductions of non-CO2 GHG’s- Sector specific sollutions- after 2035 CCS in industrial plants
(cement and steel)- Avoid carbon leakage (Internalional policy
needed!)
21
The EU Low Carbon Road Map
AGRICULTURAL SECTOR
- efficient production of food and feed- Efficient fertilizer use (NO3- > NH3> N2O,
NOx, ...)- Maintain soil carbon stocks (forests,
grasslands, low tilage, ...)- Avoid carbon leakage- Adress compotetion for land for food and
biofuels
consuming differently
ECO-oneUniversity of Warwick
220 km/h100 km/h in 4 sec
95% biologisch afbreekbaar &
recycleerbaar
producing differently
Meinshausen Nature 2009
emissions without (rood) and with (blauw) policies
How do we produce13000 GW by carbon-free sources:by 2050
- Have 13 000 1GW Nuclear power plants installed by 2050 Bring 1 on line every two days between 2000 and 2050.
or
-Have 650 000 20 MW PV parks installed by 2050 Bring 35 on line every day between 2000 and 2050
or
-Have 1 850 000 7 MW Wind turbines installed by 2050 Bring 100 on line every day between 2000 and 2050
Montalto di Castro (Italy) 44 MW photovoltaic park 0.8 km2
Area of Italt = 301.000 km2
Meinshausen 2009
by 2050, we needto be able to reduce GhG emissions by
80 Gt CO2 /yr
greenhouse gas emissions without and with policies
XX Gt CO2 /yr in the power sector
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Arctic sea ice area at summer minimum: trend
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Arctic sea ice area at summer minimum: trend
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Positive feed back at work?Heading to a tipping point ?
Meinshausen 2009
by 2030, we needto be able to reduce GhG emissions by
45 Gt CO2 eq /yr
greenhouse gas emissions without and with policies
total: 20 Gt CO2 eq
potential to reduce GhG emissions in various sectors by 2030through technolgy only
another 25 Gt CO2 eq needed ...
What does reducing CO2 emissions by 80 Gt/yr by 2050 mean?e.g.Can we reach that by decarbonizing the whole power sector?
Back of the envelop calculation, based on 2011 WEO data
Assume following BAU baseline: in 2050 - global power sector mix equals US power sector mix of yr 2000- 50% of transport, industrial and household energy delivered trough electricity- then 66% of global emissions or will be through power production Decarbonization the power sector would give a reduction of 60 GtCO2 in 2050
Decarbonising the power sector by 2050 needed but not sufficient!
Anyway:
What does it mean to decarbonize the whole power sector by 2050?
With 0.5 kg CO2 per kWh (emisison factor US power sector in 2000)
It means to produce 13000 GW with zero carbon sources by 2050
2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050
2010 European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050
demand driven management