Date post: | 24-Dec-2015 |
Category: |
Documents |
Upload: | matthew-blair |
View: | 221 times |
Download: | 5 times |
Fredric T. Walls, IIManaging DirectorSunTrust Banks, Inc.Foundations and Endowments Specialty Practice(202)[email protected]
Economic and Market UpdateApril 30, 2014
Taylor Howerton Director SunTrust Robinson HumphreyFinancial Risk Management (404)[email protected]
Andy Richman, CTFA Director of Fixed IncomeSunTrust Banks, Inc.Private Wealth Management (561)[email protected]
Table of Contents
I. Investment Overview
II. Economic Overview
III.Monetary Policy Overview
IV.Investment Outlook
V. Q&A
Summary
Global stocks were slightly higher in March, capping off a choppy first quarter
– Equities proved resilient in March despite ongoing tensions in Ukraine and soft China economic data. A rebound in payrolls and manufacturing indicates the US is thawing from the winter chill, while Europe’s recovery continued at a gradual pace.
– The MSCI ACWI, a proxy for global equities, rose 0.4% in March, finishing a choppy first quarter with a gain of 1.1%. The S&P 500 gained 0.8% in the month, bringing its year-to-date return to 1.8%; eight of the ten S&P 500 sectors were positive for the month, with Telecom, Utilities, and Financials gaining over 3%.
– Emerging markets (EM) equity was the clear leader last month, gaining 3.1%. This rebound helped cut EM’s first quarter loss to just 0.4%. Conversely, Developed International markets declined 0.6% in March but closed the first quarter up 0.7%.
Bonds were mixed in March, but outperformed stocks in the first quarter
– Remarks from new Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggested short term interest rates could rise earlier in 2015 than market expectations led to a slight rise in yields; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury yield ended March at 2.72%, up from 2.65%.
– The Barclays Aggregate Index declined 0.2% in March, but returned 1.8% in the first quarter. The Barclays High Yield Index extended its year-to-date outperformance by gaining 0.2% in March, while EM bonds snapped back with a return of 1.3%. Municipal bonds also continued its 2014 leadership, gaining 0.2% for the month and is now up 3.3% for the year.
REITs and Commodities posted another positive month, as the FTSE NAREIT All Equity Index and DJ-UBS Commodity Index each gained 0.4%. Both asset classes are up strongly thus far in 2014.
2014 base case outlook remains intact
– With economic series rebounding, we expect the US growth will rise near 3% over the course of the year. Our 2014 equity outlook remains unchanged; we anticipate positive but moderate returns with greater volatility. This view is predicated on an improving economic and earnings outlook as we progress through the year. Within fixed income markets, we continue to favor a slightly short maturity portfolio and taking credit risks over interest rate risks.
3
Economic Overview
4
Sluggish Recovery in World’s Largest Economies
Source: Bloomberg, IMF, Consensus Estimates
Country 2013 GDP GDP 2014E GDP 2015EUnemployment Rate
2014E
United States 1.9% 2.7% 3.0% 6.4%
China 7.7% 7.4% 7.2% 4.1%
Japan 1.5% 1.4% 1.2% 3.8%
Germany 0.4% 1.8% 2.0% 6.7%
France 0.2% 0.9% 1.3% 10.8%
UK 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 6.8%
Brazil 2.2% 1.9% 2.3% 5.7%
Italy (1.9%) 0.5% 1.0% 12.7%
Russia 1.3% 1.1% 2.1% 5.7%
India 4.5% 4.7% 5.3% 4.8%
Canada 2.0% 2.3% 2.5% 2.8%
World 2.1% 2.7% 3.0% 7.6%
The US holds 4.5% of the world’s population and produces 22% of global GDP
5
US Economic Indicators have Lagged by Most Measures…
Source: Strategas Research Partners. Data through February 2014. Charts begin at cycle peak of Dec 2007 where indexed to 100. Average recovery ends after approx. 20 mos.
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891
01112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748495051525354555657
81
85
89
93
97
101
105
109Industrial Production
Average Re-covery
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891
011121314151617181920212223242526272829303132333435363738394041424344454647484950515253545556
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
106Total Workers Employed
Average Re-covery
9M jobs lost651K to go
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891
0111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455
879297
102107112117122127
Retail Sales
Average Re-covery
-18
-17
-16
-15
-14
-13
-12
-11
-10
-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-101234567891
0111213141516171819202122232425262728293031323334353637383940414243444546474849505152535455
9193959799
101103105107109
Real Personal Income
Average Re-covery
6
US Economic Indicators by Comparable Recessions
Since the Great Depression, ten recessions have been
followed by a recovery that lasted at least three years
The recovery that started June 2009 was the weakest coming
out of a recession as shown in the graphs to the left:
(1) GDP growth never been weaker
(2) Unemployment rate never remained so high
History suggests recessions caused by financial crisis lead to
much slower recoveries
US GDP Growth Three Years Into Recovery
US Unemployment Rate Three Years Into Recovery
8.2%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
1948-49 1953-54 1960-61 1969-70 1973-75 1981-82 1990-91 2001 2007-09
Recession Cycles
6.8%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
1948-49 1953-54 1960-61 1969-70 1973-75 1981-82 1990-91 2001 2007-09
Recession Cycles
Source: Bloomberg, US Department of Labor7
But We Expect Growth to Pick Up in 2014
Source: STI Econ
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
282.5%250.0%
190.0%
-275.0%
-15.0%
277.5%205.0% 195.0%
250.0%
>3%
US Annual Real Economic Growth (%)
STI EST
8
Recently Improved US Macro Backdrop
-200%
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
US
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g J
ob
s
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14
Co
nsu
mer
Sen
tim
ent
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
Mo
M%
Ch
ang
e
DescriptionMetric
Case-Shiller Home Price Index
Consumer Sentiment
US Manufacturing Jobs
Natural Gas Production
Housing
Consumer
Manufacturing
Energy
U.S. Natural Gas Production (Trillions of cubic feet per year)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Shale Gas
Other
EIA Forecast
Home prices up 8% YOY
Housing starts up 11% YOY
Residential investment growing > 20% and contributing
~0.5% to GDP
US consumer ~70% of GDP
Consumer sentiment recently reached a five year high
Profound impact on sentiment due to rising equity prices
US manufacturing growth has outpaced other advanced
economies, adding over 500,000 jobs in the past three years
Rising costs of labor abroad and shipping to the US has led to
a repatriation of jobs as technological innovation and
specialized skills lead to efficiencies in production
The EIA estimates the US will become a net exporter of natural
gas by 2016
Recently, the United States became a net exporter of liquefied
petroleum gases (LPG) for the first time
US carbon emission hit a 20 year low as producers converted
from coal to less expensive natural gas
Source: Bloomberg, Haver Analytics, US Census Bureau, PIMCO, National Association of Realtors, EIA9
Data source: Bloomberg
Economic Overview
Depending on the industry,
most US economic data is
beginning to reverse the
larger-than-normal impact
from the harsh winter season.
Auto sales jumped to 16.3
million units (SAAR), up 6.9%
in March, after weaker results
during December and
January. Retail and food sales
rose 0.3% in February,
snapping a two-month slump.
Manufacturing gauges also
rebounded for February, as
new durable goods orders
surged 2.2% and industrial
production increased 0.6%.
The trend of housing data,
however, remains somewhat
unknown as the most recent
housing data still included the
impacted weather timeframe
and showed monthly declines.
Some, but not all, economic data no longer impacted by the winter weather distortions
2008
2008
2008
2009
2009
2009
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2014
6.00
8.00
10.00
12.00
14.00
16.00
18.00
US Auto Sales (SAAR)Though March 2014
Un
its
in m
illi
on
s
10
Recent jobs data appears back on prior trend, helping US private payrolls finally exceed pre-recession high
Data source: FactSet
Economic Overview, continued
As expected, job growth
accelerated once the wicked
winter weather passed.
Nonfarm payrolls increased
by 192,000 jobs in March,
along with revisions of
37,000 more than previously
reported for January and
February. That took the six-
month average to 188,000,
roughly in-line with the prior
trend. The composition of
the March gains illustrate
that the industries that
suffered the worst weather-
related declines, such as
construction and retail,
accelerated in March (or in
February and March). This
has helped US private
payrolls finally exceed pre-
recession high.
1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 201490,000
95,000
100,000
105,000
110,000
115,000
120,000
Total US Private PayrollsThrough March 2014
In m
illi
on
s
11
Monetary Policy Overview
12
13
The Fed’s Dual Mandate
62%
63%
64%
65%
66%
67%
68%
Mar-96 Mar-02 Mar-08 Mar-14
An
nu
al %
Rat
e
Participation Rate Average: 66.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Feb-96 Feb-02 Feb-08 Feb-14
An
nu
al %
Rat
e
Core CPI Core PCE
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Apr-96 Apr-02 Apr-08 Apr-14
An
nu
al %
Rat
e
Unemployment Rate Underemployment Rate
Unemployment (U-3) & Underemployed (U-6): Since 1994 Core Inflation Metrics
Labor Force Participation Rate
The unemployment rate has fallen to 6.7% from a peak of 10%.
Large part of the drop is due to falling participation rate
Core inflation metrics, the second part of the Fed’s dual mandate,
remain dormant
Yet, given the expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, price
stability may become a greater challenge in the future
Source: Bloomberg14
Economists’ Interest Rate Outlook (Bloomberg Survey – March 2014)
Current Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Q4 14 Q1 15 Q2 15
10Y UST 2.78% 2.84% 3.00% 3.16% 3.34% 3.46% 3.59%
2Y UST 0.43% 0.39% 0.49% 0.63% 0.80% 0.94% 1.13%
3M LIBOR 0.24% 0.27% 0.31% 0.35% 0.41% 0.47% 0.63%
Fed Funds 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.25% 0.38%
Real GDP 2.40% 1.90% 2.80% 3.00% 3.05% 3.00%
CPI 1.60% 1.40% 1.70% 1.80% 1.90% 1.95%
Unemployment Rate
6.70% 6.60% 6.50% 6.40% 6.20% 6.10%
Based on Bloomberg Economist Survey (3/13/2014)
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
0.80%
0.90%
1.00%
Q4 12 Q2 13 Q4 13 Q2 14 Q4 14
Economist Averages
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
Q4 12 Q2 13 Q4 13 Q2 14 Q4 14Economist Averages Economist Predictions
3M LIBOR – Past & Projected
10Y Treasury – Past & ProjectedEconomic Expectations
The charts on the right show the Bloomberg consensus forecast for 3-
Month LIBOR (48 economists) and the 10-Year Treasury (76 economists)
through the fourth quarter of 2014
With a few exceptions, there is a general sense within the
economic community that short-term rates will remain low for an
extended period. This view is consistent with recent comments by
the Fed
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
Q4 12 Q2 13 Q4 13 Q2 14 Q4 14Economist Averages Economist Predictions
Source: Bloomberg, Indicative only – Not a recommendation or offer to deal15
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14
US GDP (rt. Axis) 10-yr UST
QE1 QE2
Op. Twist & QE 3/4
Market Response to QE
GDP is expanding (slowly), yet US treasury rates are still near record lows
10-yr Treasury Yield vs. GDP (annualized)
Even in the depth of the recession, the
10-year Treasury yield was above 2%.
Over the past 12 months, the 10-year
yield reached new record lows following
QE despite an expanding economy
Treasury rates are lower now than at any point during the great recession
Source: Bloomberg 16
500
700
900
1100
1300
1500
1700
1900
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
Apr-04 Apr-06 Apr-08 Apr-10 Apr-12 Apr-14
10-yr UST S&P 500 (rt. Axis)
QE1 QE2
Op. Twist & QE 3/4
Market Response to QE
10-Year Treasury Yield vs. S&P 500
The typical relationship between treasuries and stocks has decoupled since the Fed began QE programs
Since the announcement on March
18, 2009 of the first round of
Quantitative Easing (ending March
2010), the S&P has gained over
100%
The announcement came in
December that the Fed would begin
reducing their quantitative easing
program by $10bln per month
Source: Bloomberg 17
1.30%
1.50%
1.70%
1.90%
2.10%
2.30%
2.50%
2.70%
2.90%
Oct-12 Nov-12 Dec-12 Jan-13 Feb-13 Mar-13 Apr-13 May-13 Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14
Interest Rate Volatility – 10 Year Treasury Yield
Interest rate markets dominated by the Euro-zone, FOMC, and negotiations in Washington
Congress passes bill to avoid many of the
“Fiscal Cliff” tax increases
Better than expected February payrolls
Fed announces QE4: $45BN of
Treasury purchases monthly
Positive April employment
report
Possible QE slowdown
Fed refrains from QE taper
Fed begins QE taper
Yield reaches 3% for first time since July
2011
Russia/Ukraine situation escalates
Yellen more hawkish than expected at
press conference
Source: Bloomberg 18
0.00%
2.00%
4.00%
6.00%
8.00%
10.00%
12.00%
14.00%
16.00%
18.00%
1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014
10 Year Treasury Avg (6.66%) Avg Since '90 4.98%
Historical 10 Year Treasury – Last 30 Years
History suggests long-term rates may increase rapidly once the Fed begins signaling an increase in short-term rates, and/or if the market begins to price in the risks associated with current monetary policy and the unprecedented US debt burden
Despite recent move higher, interest rates are still near historic lows
Source: Bloomberg
19
Investment Outlook
20
March 2014 Market Returns
Total Return*Periods ending March 31, 2014
1 Month YTD 12 Months
Global Markets (in US $)
MSCI AC World Equity Index (net) 0.4% 1.1% 16.6%
Citi World BIG USD un-hedged -0.1% 2.5% 2.4%
US Equities
Large-Cap US Stocks (S&P 500) 0.8% 1.8% 21.9%
Small-Cap US Stocks (Russell 2000) -0.7% 1.1% 24.9%
International Equities
Developed Countries (MSCI EAFE) (net) -0.6% 0.7% 17.6%
Emerging Markets (MSCI EM) (net) 3.1% -0.4% -1.4%
US Fixed Income
US Treasury Bonds (Benchmark 10 Yr.) -0.3% 3.4% -4.4%
Barclays Aggregate Bond Index -0.2% 1.8% -0.1%
BofAML High Yield Master 0.2% 3.0% 7.5%
Barclays Municipal Bond Index 0.2% 3.3% 0.4%
International Bonds
Citi World BIG non-USD un-hedged 0.0% 3.0% 4.5%
JPM Emerging Mkts Bond Index 1.3% 3.5% -1.1%
Non-Traditional
REITs (FTSE NAREIT Equity Index) 0.4% 8.5% 3.3%
Commodities (Dow Jones UBS) 0.4% 7.0% -2.1%
* All returns in US dollars Data Source: Factset
The MSCI ACWI, a proxy for global equities, rose
0.4% in March, finishing a choppy first quarter
with a gain of 1.1%. Emerging markets equity was
the clear leader last month, gaining 3.1%, while
Developed international was down 0.6%
Remarks from new Fed Chair Janet Yellen
suggested short term interest rates could rise
earlier in 2015 than market expectations led to a
slight rise in yields; the benchmark 10-year US
Treasury yield ended March at 2.72%, up from
2.65% the previous month.
The Barclays Aggregate Index declined 0.2% in
March, but returned 1.8% in the first quarter. The
Barclays High Yield Index and the Barclays
Municipal Bond Index each rose 0.2% last month,
extending their year-to-date outperformance. EM
bonds also snapped back with a monthly return of
1.3%.
REITs and Commodities had another positive
month and are up strongly thus far in 2014.
21
Returns are represented by the follow indices: Barclays Municipal Bond Index, Citi World BIG Index, Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index, Barclays Bellwether 10 and 30 year US Treasury Index, Barclays Financial Institutions Bond Index, Barclays MBS Fixed Rate Bond Index and Barclays US Investment Grade Corporate Index. Data source: Morningstar and Barclays Live
Market Overview
After the best year for global
equities since 2003 and the
worst annual performance for
the Barclays US Aggregate
Bond Index since 1994, a
reversion in trends took hold
as bonds outperformed
stocks in the first quarter.
World equities generally
rallied during March and in
the first quarter, but returns
were uneven. There was a
great deal of rotation within
and across markets. The MSCI
ACWI gained 0.4% for the
month and 1.1% for the
quarter. The S&P 500 rose
0.8% in March, bringing its
year-to-date gain to 1.8%. The
MSCI Emerging Markets Index
raced up 3.1% for the month,
but remained the biggest
laggard for the year.
Global stocks rose modestly in March, capping off an uneven first quarter in which bonds outperformed
S&
P 5
00
Sm
all C
ap
Dev
elop
ed I
nt'l
Em
ergi
ng M
kts
Agg
Bon
d
HY
Bon
d
Mun
i Bon
ds
Wor
ld B
ond
Com
mod
ity
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
0.8%
-0.7% -0.6%
3.1%
-0.2%
0.2% 0.2%
-0.1%
0.4%
1.8%1.1%
0.7%
-0.4%
1.8%
3.0% 3.3%
2.5%
7.0%
Major Market Returns Through March 2014
MTD YTD
22
Global stocks were slightly higher in March, capping off a choppy first quarter
Equity Market Overview
Returns are represented by the following indices: S&P 500 Stock Index, MSCI Emerging Market Index in US dollars and local currencies, MSCI EAFE developed country index in US dollars and local currencies. Data source: Morningstar
Emrg Int'l Local (MSCI EM)
Emrg Int'l USD (MSCI EM)
Developed Int'l Local (EAFE)
Developed Int'l USD (EAFE)
US (S&P 500)
Global (MSCI ACWI)
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
0.7%
1.8%
1.1%
1.9%
3.1%
-0.5%
-0.6%
0.8%
0.4%
US & International Equity Market Returns Through March 2014
MTD YTD
The MSCI ACWI, a proxy for
global equities, rose 0.4% in
March, finishing a choppy first
quarter with a gain of 1.1%.
The S&P 500 gained 0.8% in
the month, bringing its year-to-
date return to 1.8%; eight of
the ten S&P 500 sectors were
positive for the month, with
Telecom, Utilities, and
Financials gaining over 3%.
Emerging markets (EM) was
the clear leader last month,
gaining 3.1%. This rebound
helped cut EM’s first quarter
loss to just 0.4%. Conversely,
Developed international was
down 0.6% in March but closed
the first quarter up 0.7%.
23
Modest headline index gains masked significant rotation below the surface
Equity Market Overview, continued
Data source: Factset, country returns based on MSCI indices; data shown in USD on a net basis
Despite relatively flat
headline index performance,
a tremendous amount of
rotation within and across
markets occurred in the
quarter. Many of the more
expensive, high growth
areas, such as internet and
biotechnology stocks, sold
off late in the March, as
investors re-priced the
amount they were willing to
pay for future growth
expectations. Japan, 2013’s
star performer, has
struggled this year, while
peripheral European markets
Italy and Ireland jumped
14.6% and 14.0%,
respectively.
Russia
China
Japan
Germany
USA
India
Ireland
Italy
-24.0% -14.0% -4.0% 6.0% 16.0%
-14.5%
-5.9%
-5.6%
-0.3%
1.7%
8.2%
14.0%
14.6%
Select First Quarter CountryStock Market Performance
24
Remarks from Fed Chair Yellen suggested short term
interest rates could rise earlier than market expectations led
to a slight rise in yields; the benchmark 10-year US Treasury
yield ended March at 2.72%, up from 2.65% last month. As a
result, the yield curve flattened during the first quarter. The
Barclays Aggregate Index declined 0.2% in March, but
returned 1.8% in the first quarter. Meanwhile, the Barclays
High Yield Index rose 0.2%, extending its year-to-date
outperformance. EM bonds also snapped back with a
monthly return of 1.3%.
Spurred by low rates and strong investor demand,
companies continued to borrow in record amounts during
the first quarter. With rising demand, spreads on corporate
bonds closed the quarter at their lowest levels since July
2007. The average spread on investment grade bonds was
106 basis points at the end of March. Still, we find value in
corporate bonds from the incremental yield they offer over
Treasuries and recommend investors maintain an
overweight position.
With spreads are at seven-year lows and some of the recent
issuance driven by equity-friendly motives on the part of
corporations, we believe security selection and active
management of positions is critical.Data source: Bloomberg
Returns are represented by the following indices: Barclays Municipal Bond Index, Citi World BIG Index, Barclays Aggregate Bond Index, Barclays US Corporate High Yield Index, Barclays Bellwether 10 and 30 year US Treasury Index, Barclays Financial Institutions Bond Index, Barclays MBS Fixed Rate Bond Index and Barclays US Investment Grade Corporate Index.
Taxable Bond Market OverviewH
igh
Yie
ld
Co
rpo
rate
Mu
ni B
on
ds
Mo
rtg
Ba
ck
ed
Wo
rld
Bo
nd
Ag
g B
on
d
US
Ts
y 1
0 Y
r
US
Ts
y 3
0 Y
r
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
-0.3% -0.1% -0.2% -0.3%
0.9%
3.0% 2.9% 3.3%
1.6%2.5%
1.8%
3.4%
8.1%
Fixed Income Market Sector Returns Through March 2014
MTD YTD
1 2 3 5 7 10 15 20 25 300.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
Treasury Yield Curve Comparison
3/31/2014 12/31/2013
Maturity (years)
25
Commodity Market Overview
Returns are represented by the follow indices: DJ-UBS Commodity Index and the following Sector Sub-Indexes of the DJ UBS Commodity Index: Industrial Metals, Precious Metals, Energy and Agriculture. Data source: Morningstar.
Surge in agriculture help commodities notch fourth straight monthly gain
Industrial Metals
Precious Metals
Energy Agriculture DJ-UBS Commodity
Index
-1000%
-500%
0%
500%
1000%
1500%
2000%
-156.0%-397.0%
-177.0%
497.0%
41.0%
-455.0%
542.0% 420.0%
1651.0%
699.0%
Commodity Index and Sector ReturnsThrough March 2014
MTD YTD
Gains in agricultural
commodities offset a selloff in
precious and industrial metals
as the DJ-UBS Commodity
Index gained 0.4% in March,
bringing its year-to-date gain
to 7.0%.
Wheat prices surged over 15%
while corn and grains jumped
over 8% in March, aided by
extreme weather conditions.
Metals prices were generally
lower. Copper fell over 5% on
China growth concerns. The
DJ-UBS Gold Index fell 2.9% in
March and Silver declined
7.0%.
Energy markets were mixed;
natural gas gave back some of
its previous gains.
26
Hedge funds stumble in March, but post solid first quarter results
Alternatives Investment Overview
Data Source: Hedge Fund Research, Factset
Hedge fund investing involves substantial risks and may not be suitable for all clients. Hedge funds are intended for sophisticated investors who can bear the economic risks involved. Hedge funds may engage in leveraging and speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be illiquid, and are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors. Hedge funds may involve complex tax structures, have delays in distributing tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds and often charge higher fees.
Choppy equity markets
hampered hedge fund returns
during March as the HFRI
Fund Weighted Composite
Index slipped 0.3%. Similarly,
most of the major equity-
related strategies were
negative for the month.
Conversely, fixed income-
based approaches
outperformed as the HFRI
Relative Value Index rose 0.6%
in March and were the best
performing strategy during the
first quarter, up 2.4%. Other
narrowly-focus fixed income
approaches also did well in
March. Hedge funds, however,
largely kept pace for the first
quarter as the HFRI Fund
Weighted Composite Index
gained 1.1% compared to 1.8%
for the S&P 500 Index.
S&P 500
Barclays Aggregate Bond
Fund of Funds Diversified
Relative Value
Macro: Systematic Diversified
Equity Hedge
Fund Weighted Composite
-2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0%
1.8%
1.8%
0.1%
2.4%
-1.8%
1.4%
1.1%
0.8%
-0.2%
-0.9%
0.6%
-1.9%
-0.2%
-0.3%
Comparative HFRI Hedge Fund ReturnsThrough March 2014
MTD YTD
27
Category Underweight Neutral Overweight Investment Rationale
PORTFOLIO RISK Improving economy and record corporate profitability vs. a maturing economic cycle, fair equity valuations, still fragile European recovery and emerging market risks.
EQUITY Stocks are reasonably valued and offer dividend yields competitive with bond yields.
US Large Cap US leads recovery; reasonable valuations, strong balance sheets, and diverse revenue.
US Small & Mid Cap Earnings growth potential, improved lending conditions and increased M&A activity.
Master Limited Partnerships Valuations at rich levels and expectations for rising rates to increase borrowing costs.
Non-US Developed Markets Improving economies, but these markets remain vulnerable and structural issues remain.
Non-US Dev. Mkts. Small Cap Improving growth and credit environment is especially positive for smaller-cap companies.
Emerging Markets While economically important and favorably priced, these markets still face headwinds.
Real Estate Securities Should be a near-term beneficiary of a moderately improving economy and labor market.
Natural Resources Though valuations are fair, commodity supply dynamics are not favorable.
FIXED INCOME With a better economy and a transition in Fed policy, rates should move higher; we continue to underweight the more interest-rate sensitive bond market sectors.
US Government Particularly vulnerable to a rise in rates; TIPS continue to provide some relative value.
US Mortgage-Backed Securities Tend to outperform government bonds when rates rise and have a slightly higher yield.
US Investment Grade Corporate Within credit, investment-grade bonds have lower yields and a longer duration profile.
US Preferred Securities High risk profile and sensitivity to interest rates increase chance for negative returns.
US Convertible Opportunity relative to US equity and credit is not compelling.
Municipal Attractive on an after-tax basis, but underweight due to potential for rising rates.
US High Yield Better yield, lower duration and current environment supports low default expectations.
US Leveraged Loans Provides duration management and return opportunity should rates rise.
Non-US Developed Markets Yields likely to remain lower than US as economic trends/monetary policy lag.
Emerging Markets Attractive yields and diversification opportunity, but volatility may persist near term.
NON-TRADITIONAL Allocations to hedge funds should smooth returns and expand the opportunity set as stock market returns moderate and a move up in interest rates pressures fixed income.
Alternative Strategies Offers differentiated sources of return and lower risk profile vs. equity. Hedged equity should benefit from falling intra-stock correlations.
Real Assets Current data do not support adding inflation protection to portfolios. Commodities expected to be pressured by a stronger dollar, slower growth in China and improving supply.
Allocations based on a balanced portfolio. Neutral = within 10% of benchmark weight; Over/Underweight = over 11% deviation from benchmark weight. Opportunistic allocations are out-of-benchmark and are made within a range of 0-20%. Benchmark = 50% MSCI All Country World Index, 50% Barclays Aggregate Bond Index. = No Allocation; = Current Allocation; = Opportunistic Allocation
These positions represent SunTrust’s outlook regarding the attractiveness of asset classes and strategies versus our benchmark over a tactical time horizon in a balanced portfolio. Our opinions are informed by the assessment of global economic variables, financial stress indicators, valuation metrics and technical analysis under a broad range of potential risk and return scenarios.
Strategy Summary April 2014
28
What Next?
Reasons for Optimism Reasons for Concern
Improving economic backdrop
Housing market recovery
Wealth impact from increasing home
and equity prices
Rapid technological innovation
Stabilizing European debt crisis
Structural employment problems
Global monetary policy can distort
markets and create unintended
consequences
Aging demographic trends
Large fiscal deficit
29
Q & A
30
The information and material presented in this commentary are for general information only and do not specifically address individual investment objectives, financial situations or the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this commentary. Investing in any security or investment strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for you, and you may want to consult a financial advisor. Nothing in this material constitutes individual investment, legal or tax advice. Investments involve risk and an investor may incur either profits or losses. Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance.
Services provided by the following affiliates of SunTrust Banks, Inc. : Banking and trust products and services, including investment advisory products and services, are provided by SunTrust Bank. Securities, insurance (including annuities) and other investment products and services are offered by SunTrust Investment Services, Inc., an SEC registered broker-dealer and a member of the FINRA and SIPC, and a licensed insurance agency. Investment advisory products and services are offered by SunTrust Investment Services, Inc., RidgeWorth Capital Management, Inc., and GenSpring Family Offices, LLC, investment advisers registered with the SEC.
SunTrust Bank and its affiliates and the directors, officers, employees and agents of SunTrust Bank and its affiliates (collectively, "SunTrust") are not permitted to give legal or tax advice. Clients of SunTrust should consult with their legal and tax advisors prior to entering into any financial transaction.
If included as a part of the presentation, any Baseline Financial Services, Inc. (Baseline), or Crandall, Pierce & Company (Crandall Pierce), or First Rate (First Rate) statistical data is provided as a service of SunTrust Banks, Inc. and its affiliates (including SunTrust Investment Services, Inc.) by Baseline, Crandall Pierce or First Rate, all of which are unaffiliated third party vendors. While this information is believed to be accurate, SunTrust Banks, Inc., including its affiliates, does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness or timeliness of, or otherwise endorse these analyses or market data.
Investment and Insurance Products: •Are not FDIC or any other Government Agency Insured• Are not Bank Guaranteed •May Lose Value
The opinions and information contained herein have been obtained or derived from sources believed to be reliable, but SunTrust Investment Services, Inc. (STIS) makes no representation or guarantee as to their timeliness, accuracy or completeness or for their fitness for any particular purpose. The information contained herein does not purport to be a complete analysis of any security, company, or industry involved. This material is not to be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security.
Opinions and information expressed herein are subject to change without notice. STIS and/or its affiliates may have issued materials that are inconsistent with or may reach different conclusions than those represented in this commentary, and all opinions and information are believed to be reflective of judgments and opinions as of the date that material was originally published. STIS is under no obligation to ensure that other materials are brought to the attention of any recipient of this commentary.
STIS shall accept no liability for any loss arising from the use of this material, nor shall STIS treat any recipient of this material as a customer or client simply by virtue of the receipt of this material.
The information herein is for persons residing in the United States of America only and is not intended for any person in any other jurisdiction.
Investors may be prohibited in certain states from purchasing some over-the-counter securities mentioned herein.
The information contained in this material is produced and copyrighted by SunTrust Banks, Inc. and any unauthorized use, duplication, redistribution or disclosure is prohibited by law.
STIS’s officers, employees, agents and/or affiliates may have positions in securities, options, rights, or warrants mentioned or discussed in this material.
Important Disclosures
31
Asset Allocation does not assure a profit or protect against loss in declining financial markets.
Emerging Markets: Investing in the securities of such companies and countries involves certain considerations not usually associated with investing in developed countries, including unstable political and economic conditions, adverse geopolitical developments, price volatility, lack of liquidity, and fluctuations in currency exchange rates.
Fixed Income Securities are subject to interest rate risk, credit risk, prepayment risk, market risk, and reinvestment risk. Fixed Income Securities, if held to maturity, may provide a fixed rate of return and a fixed principal value. Fixed Income Securities prices fluctuate and when redeemed, may be worth more or less than their original cost.
Hedge funds may involve a high degree of risk, often engage in leveraging and other speculative investment practices that may increase the risk of investment loss, can be highly illiquid, are not required to provide periodic pricing or valuation information to investors, may involve complex tax structures and delays in distributing important tax information, are not subject to the same regulatory requirements as mutual funds often charge high fees which may offset any trading profits, and in many cases the underlying investments are not transparent and are known only to the investment manager.
High Yield Fixed Income Investments, also known as junk bonds, are considered speculative, involve greater risk of default and tend to be more volatile than investment grade fixed income securities.
Important Disclosures
International investing entails greater risk, as well as greater potential rewards compared to U.S. investing. These risks include potential economic uncertainties of foreign countries as well as the risk of currency fluctuations. These risks are magnified in emerging market countries, since these countries may have relatively unstable governments and less established markets and economies.
Investing in smaller companies involves greater risks not associated with investing in more established companies, such as business risk, significant stock price fluctuations, and illiquidity.
uncomfortable with this level of risk should not trade managed futures or commodities.
Real Estate Investments are subject to special risks, including interest rate and property value fluctuations, as well as risks related to general economic conditions. Because of their narrow focus, sector investments tend to be more volatile than investments that diversify across many sectors and companies.
32
It is not possible to invest directly in an indexBarclays Aggregate Bond Index: The broadest measure of the taxable U.S. bond market, including most Treasury, agency, corporate, mortgage-backed, asset-backed, and international dollar-denominated issues, all with investment-grade ratings (rated Baa3 or above by Moody’s) and maturities of one year or more.Barclays US Corporate High Yield includes USD-denominated, non-investment grade, fixed-rate, taxable corporate bond market. Securities are classified as high-yield if the middle rating of Moody’s, Fitch, and S&P is Ba1/BB+/BB+ or below. Barclays Corporate Bond Index includes fixed rate corporate bonds with a maturity of at least one year rated investment-grade (Baa3/BBB-/BBB-) or higher using the middle rating of Moody’s, S&P, Fitch after dropping the highest and lowest available ratings. Barclays US Government Index is representative of fixed income obligations issued by the U.S. Treasury, government agencies, and quasi-federal corporationsBarclays 10-Year U.S. Treasury Bellwethers Index is a universe of Treasury bonds, and used as a benchmark against the market for long-term maturity fixed-income securities. The index assumes reinvestment of all distributions and interest payments. Barclays 1-15 Year Municipal Index is an unmanaged index of investment grade tax-exempt municipal bonds with maturities of one - 15 years
The J.P Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index Plus (EMBI+) tracks total returns for traded external debt instruments (external meaning foreign currency denominated fixed income) in the emerging markets. The regular EMBI index covers U.S.dollar-denominated Brady bonds, loans and Eurobonds. The EMBI+ expands upon J.P.Morgan's original Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI), which was introduced in 1992 and covered only Brady bonds. An external debt version, the EMBI+ is the JPMorgan EMBI Global. JPMorgan EMBI Global Index is an unmanaged index that tracks debt securities of emerging markets
FTSE NAREIT Equity REIT Index is an unmanaged index reflecting performance of the U.S. real estate investment trust market
BofAML US Treasury 3-Month Bill is represented by the a subset of The Bank of America Merrill Lynch 0-1 Year US Treasury Index including all securities with a remaining term to final maturity less than 3 months.
US intermediate term government bonds index is derived from Morningstar’s database and tends to have a similar duration of three to five year treasuries
Index DefinitionsCredit Suisse Leverage Loans is a representative index of tradable, senior secured, U.S. dollar denominated non-investment-grade loans
DJ Dividend Select Index is an index that selects stocks by dividend yield, dividend per share growth, dividend payout ratio, and average trading volume and weighted by indicated annual dividend.
The S&P GSCI® Gold Index provides investors with a reliable and publicly available benchmark tracking the COMEX gold future
S&P 500 Index is comprised of 500 widely-held securities considered to be representative of the stock market in general.
MSCI EAFE Index comprises 21 MSCI developed country indices outside of North America: Europe, Australasia and the Far East.
MSCI Emerging Markets Index is a free float-adjusted market capitalization index that is designed to measure equity market performance of emerging markets. As of May 27, 2010 the index consisted of the following 21 emerging market country indices: Brazil, Chile, China, Colombia, Czech Republic, Egypt, Hungary, India, Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russia, South Africa, Taiwan, Thailand, and Turkey.Source: MSCI. The MSCI information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality, accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. MSCI All-Country World ex-US Index: is a free float-adjusted market capitalization weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed and emerging markets, ex-US equities.
33