Centre Interprofessionnel Technique d’Etudes de la Pollution Atmosphérique
Interprofessional Technical Centre on Atmospheric Pollution Studies
French experience in prospective scenarios Energy – Climate – Air pollution
Estimations of emissions of GHG and air pollutants in 2020 and 2030
Jean-Pierre FONTELLE
TFEIP Stockholm 2-3 May 2011
2
Content
Framework and scenarios produced Emissions of GHG in France in 2020 and 2030 Emissions of air pollutants in France in 2020 and 2030 Conclusions
Study conducted by CITEPA in March 2011(N. ALLEMAND, J. JABOT, E. DEFLORENNE, C. GUEGUEN, E.
PROUTEAU , J-M. ANDRE, J-P. CHANG, R. JOYA, E. MATHIAS, J-P. FONTELLE)
OPTINEC 4 – Scénarii prospectifs climat – air – énergie. Evolution des émissions de polluants en France à l’horizon 2020 et 2030
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Estimations of future energy consumption
Based on specific work coordinated by the French Ministry of Ecology and carried out by ENERDATA with the POLES and MEDPRO models
Validation of assumptions in cooperation with different experts of the Ministry and the industry sectors
Future energy demand and characteristic based on a large number of parameters : Demography, number of households, future economic growth,
costs of energy, costs of carbon, Energy demand per sector : industry, building, tertiary activities,
agriculture, transport (all modes), Trends for each sector in energy efficiency, energy savings, Changes in energy mix (especially use of renewable energy).
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Scenarios produced PG Business as usual (before 2007) AME Existing PAMs adopted < 2010 AMSM Existing PAMs < 2010 + effect expected from supplementary
PAMs AMSO Existing PAMs < 2010 + full compliance with the target as a
result of supplementary Policies (this scenario underlines possible differences where the real effect is different from the initial efficiency expected)
AMSO F4 similar to AMSO until 2020, continuation on the basis of theoretical compliance with a reduction of emissions by a factor 4 in 2050
PAMs : policy and measures
5
GHG emissions (LULUCF excluded) (Mainnland France + Overseas
territories)
350 000
400 000
450 000
500 000
550 000
600 000
650 000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emissions of GHG for France(in kt eq CO2)
PG AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4
MT éq CO2
1990 565,3
2009 514,7
2020PG 551,5 -2%
AME 501,6 -11%
AMSM 475,1 -16%
AMSO 434,6 -23%
AMSO F4 434,6 -23%
2030
PG 583,0 3%
AME 510,6 -10%
AMSM 463,1 -18%
AMSO 422,3 -25%
AMSO F4 385,4 -32%
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
1990
2009
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
PG AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4
Emiss
ions
of G
HG -
kt C
O2
eq.
Wastes - CRF 6
Agriculture -CRF 4
Use of solvent - CRF 3
Industry -CRF 2
Energy - CRF 1
6
Emissions of GHG (LULUCF excluded) (Mainland France + Overseas
territories) PG
AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4
60000
65000
70000
75000
80000
85000
90000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Industrie et construction (CRF 1A2)(en kt éq CO2)
PG AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4
7
GHG emissions – France GHG emission trends - energy sector
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
150000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Transports (CRF 1A3)(en kt éq CO2)
PG AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Autres secteurs - tertiare - résidentiel - agriculture (CRF 1A4)(en kt éq CO2)
PG AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Industrie de l'énergie (CRF 1A1)(en kt éq CO2)
PG AME AMSM AMSO AMSO F4
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Pollutant emissions – Mainland France
3 scenarios AME, AMSM and AMSO only tested for air pollutants, Emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, NH3, COVNM estimated in
2010, 2015, 2020, 2025 and 2030, Estimations of emission trends split according to two
configurations : One based on the current legislation as of 01/01/2010, Another based on additional measures taken after
01/01/2010 (the new IED of 24 November 2010) and a set of potential additional measures proposed by the Ministry (scenarios marked “mPA”
100
300
500
700
900
1 100
1 300
1 500
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emissions of SO2(kt SO2)
AME AMSM AMSM avec mesures PA AMSO AMSO avec mesures PA
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2000 2010 2020 2030
Emissions of SO2(in kt SO2)
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SO2 emissions
_____ provisional ceiling in 2020 according to different ambition levels
10
SO2 emissions by sectors
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
35000020
09
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2009 AME AMSM AMSM avec mesures PA
AMSO AMSO avec mesures PA
Déchets
Autres sources mobiles
Transport routier
Procédés industriels hors combustion
Combustion et fours industriels
Chauffage RT, tertiaire, agriculture
Transformation de l'énergie
AME AMSM AMSM mPA AMSO AMSO mPA
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emissions de NOx en métropole(en kt NOx)
AME AMSM AMSM avec mesures PA AMSO AMSO avec mesures PA
400
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emissions de NOx en métropole(en kt NOx)
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NOx emissions – Mainland France
_____ provisional ceiling in 2020 according to different ambition levels
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
120000020
09
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2009 AME AMSM AMSM avec mesures PA
AMSO AMSO avec mesures PA
Déchets
Autres sources mobiles
Transport routier
Procédés industriels hors combustion
Combustion et fours industriels
Chauffage RT, tertiaire, agriculture
Transformation de l'énergie
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NOx emissions by sectors
AME AMSM AMSM mPA AMSO AMSO mPA
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Emissions of PM2,5(in kt PM2,5 )
AME AMSM AMSM avec mesures PA AMSO AMSO avec mesures PA
170
190
210
230
250
270
290
2000 2010 2020 2030
Emissions of PM 2,5(in kt PM 2,5 )
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PM 2.5 emissions – Mainland France
_____ provisional ceiling in 2020 according to different ambition levels
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
30000020
09
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2010
2020
2030
2009 AME AMSM AMSM avec mesures PA
AMSO AMSO avec mesures PA
Agriculture hors combustionDéchets
Autres sources mobiles
Transport routier
Procédés industriels hors combustionCombustion et fours industrielsChauffage RT, tertiaire, agricultureTransformation de l'énergie
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PM 2.5 emissions by sectors
AME AMSM AMSM mPA AMSO AMSO mPA
15
Highlights on prospective emissions exercise
Conclusions Such an exercise is necessary for assessing feasibility of complying
with future ceilings in the frame of current negotiations (Gothenburg Protocol)
Energy savings needed to meet the EU Climate/Energy targets and the French national targets enable emission reductions linked to the production and use of energy (SO2, NOx, a part of PM2.5 and NMVOCs (biomass combustion)) scenario AMSM mPA but not enable the following to be reached :
All targets in 2020 (SO2 only in compliance), The most ambitious current targets under no circumstances
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Highlights on prospective emissions exercise
Conclusions
Emissions of NOx, PM2,5 and NMVOCs can be significantly impacted by the increase in use of biomass which is included in climate PAMs.
For the scenario AMSO, in which the use of biomass is the most important, emissions of PM2.5 are higher than with the scenario AMSM (emissions of PM 2.5 and NMVOCs are potentially high in small domestic appliances where energy efficiency is low and the combustion is not regulated and well controlled ; NOx emissions are higher with wood than natural gas and light distillates).
Therefore, the best scenario regarding GHG emission reductions is not the best for all air pollutant emission reductions (eg. PM2.5 and NMVOCs)
Thanks for your attention
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