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French Maritime Cluster
Le Faire-Savoir MaritimeThe Maritime Voice
Presentation
Mare fORUM
FranceA maritime nation
It is ahead of many other traditional and dynamic sectors in all respects
Has exports and turnover twice as big as those in the wine and spirits industry
Employs 120,000 people more than the banking sector
Has a bigger turnover than aeronautics
Has a bigger turnover than fashion industries
Employs as many people as the entire car industry
In France, the maritime cluster:
Présentation Chiffres Appui Final
19 500 40 000 39 000 27 100 46 000
59 750 56 000 3 300 6 000 11 000
FranceA maritime nation
311,650 direct jobs
Présentation Chiffres Appui Final
Merchant fleet
Shipbuilding and maritime equipment manufacturers Ports Offshore
Nautical industry
Fishing and seafood
Stateaction at sea
Research institutes
Organisations and training Other activities
Turnover of € 53.7 bn
12
6.37.6
8.56.24.5
1 0.6 2
5
GROWTH & TRADE FORECASTSGROWTH & TRADE FORECASTS
o World trade overreacts to global economic trends (-11% in 2009)
o Strongest decrease in seaborne trade since the early 1980s (-2/3%)
o Growth forecasts for 2009 & 2010 are regularly revised downwards by financial institutions
-15,0
-10,0
-5,0
0,0
5,0
10,0
2007 2008 2009 2010
World GDP Growth vs TradeWorld GDP World Trade Seaborne trade
%
LEVEL OF FLEET RENEWALLEVEL OF FLEET RENEWAL
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 June 09
Percentage of the active fleet on order by type
Oil Tanker Bulk carriers Containerships
% dwt of fleet on order
67%
41%
36%
o Percentage of ships on order still very high despite absence of new orders, and cancellations (49% of world fleet on order)
o Containerships: first to react but still overbuilt in the overpanamax segment
o Tankers: a less exposed segment -renewal justified by 2010 phase out
o Bulk carriers: the crisis is ahead of us
DELIVERIES vs CANCELLATIONSDELIVERIES vs CANCELLATIONS
o Should be cancelled or
delayed
o Reasonable level of
deliveries required
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
200,000
220,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DELIVERIES vs CANCELLATIONS
Cancellations as at June 2009
Total deliveries
(000 dwt)(Based on f irm orders June 2009)
0.1%0.6%
4.7%
6.6%
4.4%
5.2%
IMPACT OF FULL ECONOMIC RECOVERYIMPACT OF FULL ECONOMIC RECOVERY
1 000
1 100
1 200
1 300
1 400
1 500
1 600
1 700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Scenarios for the futureDelays & Cancellations = 30+30 M dwt/yr 2009-2011Surplus of deliveriesFleet required (@ +6% Seaborne 2011+) Fleet required (@ +4,5% Seaborne 2011+) Fleet required (@ +3% Seaborne 2011+)
M dwt
Full recovery to limit period of
oversupply
OUTLOOK FOR 2009OUTLOOK FOR 2009« They died not all, but all were sick. »« They died not all, but all were sick. »
• Extreme volatility of the charter marketExtreme volatility of the charter market
• Order book surplus has not yet fully impacted the market Order book surplus has not yet fully impacted the market due to delaysdue to delays
• The real shipping overcapacity crisis is still ahead of usThe real shipping overcapacity crisis is still ahead of us
• Risk of bankruptcy of shipyards could lead to nationalism Risk of bankruptcy of shipyards could lead to nationalism and protectionist measures in the Far East.and protectionist measures in the Far East.
• Opportunities will rise and cash-rich owners will be ahead of Opportunities will rise and cash-rich owners will be ahead of the gamethe game
• Growth recovery potential of BRIC and other developing Growth recovery potential of BRIC and other developing countries may bring stronger relief than expectedcountries may bring stronger relief than expected
In shipping, the worst is never certain!In shipping, the worst is never certain!
French maritime cluster
310 000
315 000
317 500
311 800 311 650
290 000
306 600
43,8
5453,7
48,5
37,638,8
43,4
280 000
285 000
290 000
295 000
300 000
305 000
310 000
315 000
320 000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Est. 2009
Em
plo
ymen
t
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Tu
rno
ver
B €
French Maritime Cluster
Le Faire-Savoir MaritimeThe Maritime Voice
“embark with the CMF”
Thanks for your attention!
www.cluster-maritime.fr