French-Serbian Summer school - 2006 ENERGIES FOR A SUSTAINABLE FUTURE The potential of Renewable...

French-Serbian Summer school - 2006

ENERGIES FOR AENERGIES FOR ASUSTAINABLE SUSTAINABLE

FUTUREFUTURE

The potential of The potential of Renewable EnergiesRenewable Energies

F.P. Neirac – CEP – Ecole des Mines


ENERGIES FOR AENERGIES FOR ASUSTAINABLE SUSTAINABLE

FUTUREFUTURE

F.P. Neirac – CEP – Ecole des Mines

EnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy

Renewable Renewable EnergiesEnergies

Renewable Renewable EnergiesEnergies

SynthesisSynthesisSynthesisSynthesis

•History•Energy and economy•The case of Renewable Energies

•Classification•PV•Solar concentrating technologies•Wind•Geothermy•Biomass•Solat thermal


HISTORY OF ENERGYEnergyEnergyEnergyEnergy

-15 Billions of year :

The Big-Bag

-18000 Lighting

Paleolithic

-5 Billions of years :

The Sun

-500 Millions of years :The Life

-300 Millions of years

Creation of the fossil ressources

-400000 : The Fire(Homo-Erectus)

-4,5 Billions :The Earth

Mesolithic

Wind energy(vertical axis,

Asia)

Agriculture

Middle Age

-10000 BC -8000 BC -3000 BC -2000 BC +1000 AD

The wheel

-200 BC

Age of fire

-10000 BC

DomesticationOf animals

Intensification of energy use : wood

and muscular traction

+700 AD

Hydraulic energy,Mills



Wind mills(horizontal axis)

1200

1810

1300

First use of coal(wood depletion)

Industrial revolution,Massive use of coal

The steam engine

First oil well (Pennsylvania, Edwin Drake, USA)

1787

1859

1800

First electric generator (Volta)

1930+ 1885 1882 1938 1942

First Oil Crisi

1973

First coal electric plant (New-York)

Hydraulic Energy

Massive use of oil

Atomic fissionFirst nuclear

reactorUniversity of

Chicago

1980

Second oil crisis



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1850 1900 1950 2000

Coal Renewables (except hydro.)

O il Natural gas

Hydropower Nuclear


0

3

6

9

0 2 4 6

Evolution of energy needs from 1990 …

Population (billions

Tep

/hab

North America

Latin America

Western Europe

China

South AfricAfricaMiddle East

Russia FSUAustralia Japan

Source : « World Energy Assessment », UNDP, UNDESA, CME, 2001

9 billions of TEP


0

3

6

9

0 2 4 6 8 10

Population mondiale, en milliards d’habitants

Conso

mm

ati

on

par

hab

itant

en

tep … to 2050

Amérique du Nord

Amérique latine

Europe de l’Ouest

Chine … Asie du SudAfrique

Moyen-Orient

Russie-PECO

Australie Japon

20 billions of tep


ENERGY IS THE OXYGEN OF THE ECONOMIC LIFE


• Since 200 years, the economic growth has been linked to an exponential use of energy

• Today, humanity has to face a double challenge :CO2Fossil reserves




• CO2 :

Futur

ResourcesUse

Past + 2000 Future

CO2




• Fossil Reserves depletion :

Oil consumption continues to increase !





The proved reserves in 1999 …





… and the evolution in 2005


Proved World

Reserves

A cube5.7x5.7x5.7

km3

1200GBl



1200MBl

World consumption :

80 M Bl/j=

150 m3/s

Flow of the Seine river :

250 m3/s

IntroductiIntroductionon

IntroductiIntroductionon




•Situation for oil :Actual reserves are estimated at 1200 Gbl (180 Gtep) ~ 40 years of actual consumptionReserves could increase :

•Improvement of recovering factors

•Non conventional oil (heavy oil, tar sands, …)




•Situation for oil :Actual reserves are estimated at 1200 Gbl (180 Gtep) ~ 40 years of actual consumptionReserves could increase :

•Improvement of recovering factors

•Non conventional oil (heavy oil, tar sands, …)The reality is that we consume each year more oil than we discover …

World Oil: Depletion, Geopolitics, CO2

1850

We Are Here

1850 2050




• Situation for Natural Gas :Actual reserves are estimated at 155 Tm3

(139 Gtep) ~ 60 years of actual consumption (2.5 Tm3/y)

More NG is discovered each year than we consume

However, if we would have to replace oil and coal consumption by NG, R/P would become only 17 years

World Gas: Depletion, Geopolitics, CO2

1900

We Are Here

2050




• Situation for coal :Huge reserves : R/P > 230 yearsNo intense prospection : reserves could

increaseCoal is mainly consumed where it is

produced




• Situation for coal :Huge reserves : R/P > 230 yearsNo intense prospection : reserves could

increaseCoal is mainly consumed where it is

produced

• However : coal is the most polluting and CO2 emitting

fossil energyMining has strong environmental impacts

World Coal: Depletion, Land Impacts, CO2

1850

We Are Here

2150




• Situation for uranium : With the known resources (4 MT) and the actual

consumption (60000 t/y), R/P ~ 70 y With surgeneration, reserves could last over 1000

years

• Drawbacks : Nuclear energy is very capital intensive, investments

are not favored by deregulation Social acceptability Risks of dissemination

World Nuclear: Surgeneration is needed

1950

We Are Here

Uranium

BreederReactors

2075




• Situation for RES :

Today RES accounts for 14 % of the world electricity production




• Situation for RES :

84 % of this production is hydroelectricity"New" RES (PV, Wind, …) account for less

than 1 %

Renewable Energy: Infinite, Clean

We Are Here


RenewablRenewable Energiese Energies





Extra-terrestrial radiation :1400 W/m2

Is Renewable energy really "Inifinite" ?

• Solar Energy :Life time : 5 billions of yearsEnergy received annually by the earth :

R=6400 km

Radiation received in the cross section: 1.8 1011 MWEnergy received in 1 year : 1,6 1015 MWh ~ 130 106 MTEPWorld energy consumption : 3500 MTEP

Solar Energy > 30000 times World Energy Consumption !





• Practically, energy received at the ground level is reduced :Atmosphere, cloudsEarth rotationGround radiation ~ 10000 times WEC

• Orders of magnitude :France : 3 kWh/m2 day (North) to 5 kWh

(South)Serbia : likely more (6 kWh/m2 day)





• Illustration :A 100 m2 three levels buildingEnergy needsheating (150 kWh/m2 y) : 45000 kWhElectr. (35 kWh/m2 y) : 10500 kWhTotal : 55500 kWh

Incident Solar Energy on 100 m2 :ISE (kWh/y) ISE/needs

3 kWh/m2d 110000 25 kWh/m2d 185000 3.36 kWh/m2d 220000 4





• Illustration n° 2:Ennergy produced by 1 m2 PV panel

- France : 100 kWh/m2/year for a photovoltaic panel

450 TWh yearly electricity

Equivalent PV surface = 5000 km2

Comparison : buildings ground surface = 10000 km2





• In terms of "orders of magnitude", RES have the potential to become an important energy source

• However, tremendous obstaclesCostsVariability :

• In time (sun, wind, hydro, biomass, …)• In space (towns, deserts, …)

Difficulty (impossibility ?) to be stored




Classification ofrenewable energy sources

• RES inside the global scheme of energy sources :












REVIEW OF THE MAIN RES

• Photovoltaic energy• Solar concentrating technologies • Wind energy• Geothermal energy• Biomass


PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

The Photovoltaic Energy

• Technical aspects• Efficiency of the PV conversion• The PV industry• Use of PV energy• Economic aspects


Technical Aspect

(90 % of the market) :

Silicium Made from sand

(1800°C) Purified Amorphous (a-Si) Monocristallin (mc-Si) Poly-cristallin (c-Si)

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy


Silicium Lingot Lingot scié

Wafer

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Technical Aspect


Wafer Cell

ConnexionModule

Doping +

Antirefl.

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Technical Aspect


Other materials GaAs : Spatial, 30 %

efficiency CdTe : "cheap", 10%

efficiency CuInSe2, ou CIS : 17 %

Dye-cells (Titane Dioxide de titane), polymers, photo-electro-chemical, organic…

Research is going on …

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Technical Aspect


• Solar spectrum : Photons issued from the solar radiation do not have the

same energy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Efficiency


• Semi-conductors : Depending on their nature, they allow some "solar" photons

to extract electrons and to create an electric curent

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Efficiency


• Theoretical efficiency :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Efficiency


• Practical efficiency : The actual efficiency of the best commercial panels is around

15 % Practically, the real efficiency is affected by :

• Temperature influence• Mismatch (deviation from the optimal voltage)• Losses• …

The real efficiency is today 10 %

• Surfacic production : Assuming a location with 1000 kWh/m2 year (~ 3 kWH/m2d) The productibility is around 100000 MWh/km2

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Efficiency


• The World PV Market :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

The PV industry

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Ma

rke

t S

ize

in M

Wp

Off-Grid & Consumer on-Grid

40 % p.a.


• The European PV Market :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

The PV industry

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Total 2006e

Total 2005e

Total 2004

Allemagne

Luxembourg

Espagne

France

Pays-Bas

Italie

Autriche

Suisse

RU

Grèce

Belgique

Danemark

Suède

Finlande

Portugal

Pologne

MW


• Structure of a PV System :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PV Systems

Isolated system Grid connected system


• Grid connected systems (Switzerland) :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PV Systems


• Grid connected systems (Germany) :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PV Systems


• Grid connected systems : The Reichstag in Berlin 370 m2, 37 kWp

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PV Systems


• Stand alone systems (DC current) :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PV Systems


• Hybrid systems (AC current) :

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PV Systems


• Actually PV is one of the most expensive ways to produce energy

• The cost of electricity production by a RE system is linked to : Its investment cost Its productibility

• For PV systems : Investment cost ~ 3000-7000 €/kWp(wind turbine : 1000 €/kW) Productibility ~ 1000 hours / year(wind turbine : 2000-4000 hours/year)

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Economic aspects


• But the costs can only decrease : Learning curve of PV cells

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Economic aspects

PV modules learning curves (measured 1977-99; projected 2000-20)

1999

1999

0,1

1,0

10,0

100,0

1 10 100 1000 10000 100000

Cumulative Production Volume [MWp]

ASP [const $/Wp] ASP all modules (const $/Wp) [12PVSEC]

ASP c-Si Power Modules (const$/Wp) [12EPVSEC]

ASP ThinFilm Power Modules (const $/Wp)


• Optimistic assumption : PV could become competitive before 30 years …

PVPVEnergyEnergy

PVPVEnergyEnergy

Economic aspects


Technical aspect

• Use of the direct solar radiation • Concentration on a receptor

• Conversion in thermal energy (high temperature)

• Transfer to a conversion cycle (steam turbine, stirling engine, …)

• Thermodynamic conversion from heat to electricity

Solar Solar ConetratioConetratio

n n technologitechnologi

eses



eses


Trough collecors

The sun radiation is collected at the focal line of a cylindro parabolic mirror

Installed capacity : 390 MW(California > 90%)SEGS (Solar Electric Generating

System)75% solaire 25% gaz naturel



eses



eses


TOWER PLANTS

French prototype THEMIS1 MW in Mont Louis, (Pyrennean)

Various heat transfer fluids :•water-beam (USA, JPN, IT, RU)•Sodium (ES, PFS Almeria)•Melteld salts (FR, Themis)

Réalisations :SOLAR I (water) : 1818 héliostats10 MW, 510 °C, 100 barsSOLAR II ( melteld salts)



eses



eses


Efficiencies

Trough plants

• Global efficiency ~ 15-16%• Capacity factor ~ 25%Tower plants

• Global efficiency ~ 15%• Trends : 20%

• Surface productivity : 100 000 MWh/km2/year



eses



eses


Parabolic concentrators

• Concentration : 600 à 2000 T° ~1 500°C

• Small systems : 25 kW – D ~ 10 m

• Use of a stirling engine at the focal point of the parabole

• Rdt ~ 23%• Facteur de capacité ~12,5% version hybride 50% possible



eses



eses


Economic aspects

Investment cost Trends

Trough 2 700 €/kW SEGS1 080 €/kW ISCCS215 €/m2 110 – 130 €/m2

Towers 4 400 €/kW475 €/m2

2 500 €/kW (2030)200 €/m2

Parabole 10 à 14 000 €/kW (7 000 €/kW)

1 600 €/kW (10 000 unités/an)100 €/m2



eses



eses


Numerous projects all over the world



eses



eses


Technical aspect

• Wind energy has been the most developed RES since 20 years

• Technological progress have been made :Mechanics (blades)Electric generatorsGearboxesSize (scale effect)

Wind Wind EnergyEnergy

Wind Wind EnergyEnergy 22

19891985 1992 1993 1996

15 m

30 m

46 m

37 m 600 kW

500 kW

300 kW

50 kW

46 m

112 m

4.500 kW

1.500 kW

70 m

200x


Efficiency

• Wind turbine efficiency is limited by the Betz factor

• Surface productivity : ~ 15000 mWh/km2/year




Economical aspect

• Main effect : the costs have been largely reduced :



CDR éolien à terre ; t = 8 % (cEUR/kWh)

6,89

4,87

5,74

4,06

4,59

3,25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

2000 h/an

2400 h/an

3000 h/an


Perspectives for Europe

European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) :

Predicted in: Prédiction

1991 4,000 MW en 2000 (100,000 MW in 2030)

1997 8,000 MW en 2000 (100,000 MW in 2020) 40,000 MW en 2010

13,000 MW realised en 2000

2000 60,000 MW in 2010 (incl. 5,000 MW offshore)

150,000 MW in 2020 (incl. 50,000 MW offshore)




Actual situation

• Only 20 countries are concerned (from which numerous developong countries)

• 8.4 GW installed today• Estimated potential 50 GW in

2030• Philippines : 22 % of the

national electric energy• Indonesia :19 GW planned in

the next 30 years

MWe installés (1999)

36%

22%9%

9%

7%

6%4% 4% 3%

USA Philippines ItalieMexique Indonésie JaponNouvelle Zélande Amerique centrale Reste du monde

GeothermGeothermal Energyal Energy



Actual situation




Technical aspect

• Power ranging from 350 kW to 55 MW

• Used as base power plants at nominal power




Economic aspects GeothermGeothermal Energyal Energy


Installed Power Investment costs Energy cost

World Bank (US $ / kWe) (US c / kWh)

< 5 MWe 1600 – 3700 5,0 – 10,5

5-30 MWe 1300 – 2500 4,0 – 7,0

> 30 MWe 1150 – 2200 2,5 – 6,0

EUropean Commission (€ / kWe) (c€ / kWh)

15 MWe 2300 – 2400 5,5

30 MWe 1800 – 1900 4,5

55 MWe 1400 – 1500 3,7


Actual Situation

• It is estimated that 14 % of the world energy conumption is issued from biomass (> nuclear + hydro)

• Biomass is the only accessible energy source for over 2 billions of people

• In DC's: Low efficiencies Severe local environmental impacts (desertification)Africa (~90%) - India (45%) - China (30%)

• Industrialised countries : small contribution : < 1% (UK,D) à > 12% (FI,DK)New developments (biogaz, biocarburants, wood/electricity,...)

BIOMASSBIOMASSBIOMASSBIOMASS


The Biomass cycleBIOMASSBIOMASSBIOMASSBIOMASS


Efficiency

• Biomass efficiency is extremely low : 1-5 %

• Surface productivity : ~ 1500 MWh/km2/year



Biomass Pathways

Biomass & residues

Gasturbine

CombustionCo-combustion

Pyrolysis

vapour

Biocarbs

Wood coal

SynGasCO-H2

BiogasCO2-CH4-vapeur

Gazéification

Anareobic digestion

SteamTurbine

Gasengine



Objective

18

4275

Chauffage Electricité Transports

MTep

MTepMTep

Objectifs 2010 en EUROPE

6.8

38

Chauffage Electricité

MTep

MTep

Situation 1995 en EUROPE

In EUROPE :



SOLARSOLARTHERMALTHERMAL


• Description :

Technical Aspect




• Hot water solar collector :

Technical Aspect




• Solar heating :

Technical Aspect




• Individual house :

Integration




• Individual house :

Integration




• Collective building :

Integration




Economic aspects Solar thermal collectors are simple systems :


Economic aspects

• Solar thermal collectors are simple systems : No moving parts Copper pipes and absorber, insulation, glass, absorbent

coating

• Solar water heaters are a viable option : Payback time < 10 ears without any subvention < 5 years if subsidised

• Solar heating remains more expensive Payback time < 10 years with subvention




RES under development

• Oceans : Thermal gradient Waves Tidal energy Marine currents

• Biomass/hydrogen : Flash pyrolysis of waste biomass Photo-electrolysis (plancton)

• Solar tower concepts• …

OTHERSOTHERSOTHERSOTHERS


Are RES really expensive ?

• RES are the only • …

SYNTHESISSYNTHESISSYNTHESISSYNTHESIS



• Environmental impacts be more and more taken into account …




• … resulting in externalities :



NO "MARKET"NO "MARKET"FOR RESFOR RES

A SIMPLE EQUATION

FOSSIL ENERGYABUNDANTAND CHEAP

NOENVIRONMENTAL

CONSTRAINTS



??????

Today :A New Context

FOSSIL ENERGYABUNDANTAND CHEAP

NOENVIRONMENTAL

CONSTRAINTS




ARMINES - Ecole des Mines de

Paris 1600 people on 4 sites : Paris, Évry, Fontainebleau, Sophia Antipolis

600 permanent staff,

1000 students (22% from abroad)

Civil engineer (120 / year) : Paris

PhD and Masters (330 /year) : On all sites

19 research centres


22 millions euros of research contract with industry (about 1000 contrats with 200 companies).

25% with a foreign partner

2, 5 millions euros from patent rights on a yearly basis

Important links with industry


Materials sciences and engineering 355

Earth and environmental sciences 169

Energy and process engineering 148

Human and social sciences 113

Mathematics, automatics and computer sciences 161

Many areas

of engineering sciences


CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIESStaff, as of 12/31/2002: 148 (47 scientists, 67 research

students)

PARIS (staff: 74)• Heat transfers in industrial processes• Thermodynamics and systems• Solar and green buildings• Energy demand side management• Air-conditioning systems • Environmental impacts of energy

• Colloidal systems in industrial processes (16)

SOPHIA ANTIPOLIS (staff: 52)• Renewable energies• Thermal comfort in confined areas• Energy and materials• Energy storage and conversion processes• Plasma conversion process

• Remote sensing and modeling

FONTAINEBLEAU (staff: 22)• Thermodynamic of phase equilibria• Kinetics of transfers between phases

ENERGY AND TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION :

• Methodological and experimental studies, modeling• Technological innovations• General studies on energy and the environment

22. Jul 2002


Centre d’EnergétiqueSophia Antipolis

• 52 people, as follows :• 23 senior researchers• 8 technical et administrative people• 21 PhDs

• Budget is 2.7 M€ of which 1.5 M€ contracts

• Research Activities at Sophia Antipolis Renewable energies Storage and conversion of energy Materials elaboration Plasma conversion Remote sensing


Research activities

DistributedGeneration

Evaluation and prediction :- solar resource- wind resource

Poly energy systemsbased on RE : - PV/diesel - Wind/diesel - PV/EL/FC

Planning tools (SIG)

Fuel cell Storage technologies


Substation

SubstationSubstation

DSO Operation centre

TSO Operation centre

Aggregator or ESP Operation centre

The system as it is today


Substation

Substation

Substation

DSO Operation centre

TSO Operation centre

Aggregator or ESP Operation centre

Penetration of DER on MV and LV systems


Evaluation of the offshore wind potentialthrough remote sensing techniques


GIS : Renewable energies integration

104


H2

O2

H2O

ElectrolyserFuel Cell

Load

PV FieldPMU

Battery230 VAC 4 kW

30 VDC 3,6 kW

12 VDC 4 kW

24 VDC 2 kWh210 VDC

3,6 kWp

12 kWh

Description of the test bench


Activities in the fuel cell field

• Fuel cell test bench

400 W to 10 kW power rangeFuel cell round robin tests within Europe

• Participation in different demonstration programmes at a national level

• Fuel Reforming activities


Matériaux à caractéristiques « énergétiques » particulières

Nouveaux matériauxMatériaux d ’électrodes-super capacités-piles à combustible

Materials with specific Characteristics for energy use

Transparent insulationSuper insulation

Electrode materials- super capacities- fuel cells

Hydrogen storage

New materials


Elaboration of silicon Aerogel

500 1000 1500 2000 25000.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0Run 6-2 400 °C

Tra

nsm

ittan

ce

Wavelength (nm)

r642th r642td r642tr

%TR = 88 % (CSTB Grenoble)

Transparent thermal super insulation


Electrochemical aplications

Electrodes for PEM Fuel cell

Matérial « Aérogel »

adaptable and open prosity :

Optimal Distribution of catalyst decrease in Pt, Au … homogeneous distribution

Electronic conduction : Aérogel Carbone(1) ou SiO2 « chargé » C(2), …

Hydrophobe area (évacuation H2O compartiment cathodique)

(1) : R. Petricevic, J. Fricke, ISA6, JNCS (in press)(2) : C.A. Morris, M.L. Anderson, R.M. Stroud, C.I. Merzbacher, D.R. Rolison, Science 284 (1999) 260


TECHNOLOGIE

• Puissance : 260 kW

• Température : 3,000 – 12,000 °C

• Gaz plasma : He, Ar, H2, N2, CO

• Précurseurs Hydrocarbures (Gaz, Liquides) Carbone solide (+ cat.)

• Capacité : 1 kg / heure


CARBON “NECKLACES”

Carbon “Necklaces”J-C Charlier, Andrei Palnichenko,

Hanako Okuno, UCL


Enveloppe bâtiment- gestion des gains directs-composants d ’enveloppe

Production répartie d ’énergie

Demand SideManagement

Buildings- heating- cooling

Building Enveloppe- Direct gains management- Enveloppe components

Decentralised Generation

Planning tool (SIG)


LINKS

• www-cep.cma.fr

• [email protected]

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