From De-Urbanization to Selective Re-Urbanization: The Transformation of American Shrinking Cities in the 21st
CenturyALAN MALLACH, SENIOR FELLOW
CENTER FOR COMMUNITY PROGRESS
WASHINGTON, DC
HistoryThe story of American older industrial cities during most of the second half of the 20th century was one of almost unremitting decline.
0.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
11.1
1950 1990
Population change 1950-1990 (1950 = 1)
New York Chicago Philadelphia
Detroit Baltimore Cleveland
St. Louis Washington Boston
History
Decline was fueled by Suburbanization Regional migration De-industrialization
The 20th century narrative was one of urban decline
“The cities are
finished”
“we should try to help people….as quickly as
possible facilitate transition to new locations and jobs.”
“Ladies and gentlemen, the Bronx is
burning”
The narrative began to shift near the end of the century
2000
1998
Conditions have changed
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1990 2000 2017
New York Chicago Philadelphia
Detroit Baltimore Cleveland
St. Louis Washington Boston
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1.1
1950 1990
Population change 1950-1990 (1950 = 1)
New York Chicago Philadelphia
Detroit Baltimore Cleveland
St. Louis Washington Boston
Population change 1990-2017 (1990 = 1)
Change is visible in American cities
Many cities are outpacing national trends
11.11.21.31.41.51.61.71.81.9
2
DC BOS
BALT
PITT ST
LBU
FCL
E US
CPI 1
999-
2015
Growth in median income 1999 to 2015
0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%9.00%
10.00%Job growth 2008 to 2014
A hierarchy of urban change has replaced a pattern of consistent declineBoomtowns Strong but partial
revivalLimited revival Little revival
BostonWashington DCNew York City
ChicagoBaltimorePhiladelphiaPittsburghSt Louis
Cincinnati DetroitBuffaloMilwaukee
FlintYoungstownGaryDaytonCamden NJ
This shift was driven by the emergence of a new urban economy
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
Health care &education
Manufacturing
JOBS BY SECTOR 1950-2015
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Baltimore Cleveland Pittsburgh
Manufacturing1967
Manufacturing2015
Eds and Meds 2015
…and a rising new demographic: a young, well-educated population – the “young grads”
Share of population over 18 who are 25 to 34 with BA or higher degree
2000
2016
…creating a growing consumption sector
These changes are transforming cities
Baltimore
St Louis
Cleveland
Or are they?
Baltimore
Detroit
St Louis
Detroit
The revival is real butso are the poverty andinequality
They are inextricably linked
Inequality is….
SpatialEconomicRacial
Baltimore’s White “L”
Median salesprice >$200K
60%+ Non-Latino White Young BA+ clusters
and its “Black Butterfly”
Poverty >20%
Percentage African-American
Housing vacancies >20%
The population of young university graduates is spreading but not everywhere
Baltimore 200025,775 25-34 BA+ Baltimore 2015
48,533 25-34 BA+
Wealth is concentrating in fewer places
20.00%
25.00%
30.00%
35.00%
40.00%
45.00%
50.00%
2006 2015
Share of total citywide salesby dollar valuein Baltimore inareas wheremedian >$200K
Cities are adding jobs, but city residents aren’t filling them
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
JOBS
IN C
ITY
JOBH
OLD
ERS
LIVI
NG
AN
DW
ORK
ING
IN C
ITY
JOBH
OLD
ERS
LIVI
NG
INCI
TY
Change in number of jobs and jobholders inBaltimore 2002-2015
050000
100000150000200000250000300000
Who works in Pittsburgh?
Vacancy and abandonment are spreading
1990
2010
2000
Baltimore 1990-2010
Racial disparities are growing
Change in median household income 2000 to 2017
CPI INCREASE 2000 TO 2017
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Baltimore St Louis Pittsburgh Milwaukee Philadelphia Cleveland Detroit
WHITE BLACK
Areas of concentrated and segregated poverty are spreading
2000
2015Areas with >30% poverty rate and >50% black population
Detroit 2000-2015
Areas of concentrated and segregated poverty
in 2000 and 2016
Declining areas: areas of concentrated and
segregated poverty in 2016 but not in 2000
TOLEDO 2000 TO 2016
More neighborhoods are declining than gentrifying
GentrificationNeighborhood decline
Indianapolis
Neighborhood change in Chicago 2000 to 2017
Only seven out of 229 largely (>60%) black low or middle-income neighborhoods in Chicago trended upward from 2000 to 2017.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
to low income Remained thesame
To upper income
Middle Income Neighborhoods
<25% black >60% black
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
To very lowincome
Remained thesame
To middle orupper income
Low Income Neighborhoods
<25% black >60% black
What does this mean? American cities are doing better than at any
time in the last 60+ years.Yet more people cannot make a living wage and
are living in poverty, and poor housing and neighborhood conditions.
American cities are creating jobs and drawing billions of dollars in investment.Yet more neighborhoods, particularly African-
American neighborhoods, are losing ground.
Closing observations
The past, present andfuture of America’s shrinking (or ex-shrinking) cities
Urban shrinkage in the American context Urban shrinkage took place at a time when the
United States population was steadily growing. Shrinkage reflected fundamental regional and
economic changes in the United States Shrinkage constituted a de-urbanization of the
American society and economy. Shrinking cities, in the American context, also
concentrated social and economic disadvantage and disinvestment.
The era of de-urbanization is over
The United States is now in a period of uneven or selective re-urbanization
The social and economic legacies of de-urbanization remain
The American urban hierarchy
LOCATION
SIZE (critical mass)SMALL LARGE
COASTAL
INLAND
A hierarchy of urban change has replaced a pattern of consistent declineBoomtowns Strong but partial
revivalLimited revival Little revival
BostonWashington DCNew York City
ChicagoBaltimorePhiladelphiaPittsburghSt Louis
Cincinnati DetroitBuffaloMilwaukee
FlintYoungstownGaryDaytonCamden NJ
SMALL CITIES
Three central challenges
The challenge of sustaining and extending revival
The challenge of building equity and rebuilding opportunity
The challenge of finding a future for small cities
Thank you.