Page 1
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
FROM MATRIC INTO AND THROUGH UNIVERSITY
Higher Education access and outcomes in South Africa
Hendrik van Broekhuizen, Servaas van der Berg, and Heleen Hofmeyr
Research Colloquium on Skills PlanningHow do we plan to meet South Africa’s skills needs?
29 - 30 September 2016Birchwood Conference Centre
RESEPResearch on Socio-Economic Policy
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 1 / 11
Page 2
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Project background
Project backgroundOutputs, data, and research focus
I Working papers available: http://www.lmip.org.za/lmippublicationsand http://www.ekon.sun.ac.za/wpapers/
I Acknowledgements: DBE and DHET (Kirsten Barth) for the data linking,anonymisation, and provision
I Links 2008 - 2013 NSC and 2009 - 2014 HEMIS
I For the first time allows detailed, nationally representative quantitative analysis ofI transitions from school to university (access),I how matric results, demographics, and school background influence universityoutcomes, and
I how students progress through the public university system
I Focus mainly on the 2008 matric cohort
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Page 3
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
The qualifications hierarchyHow many reach the top of the pyramid?
100Start
School
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
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Page 4
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
The qualifications hierarchyHow many reach the top of the pyramid?
100
60
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 3 / 11
Page 5
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
The qualifications hierarchyHow many reach the top of the pyramid?
100
60
3714 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 3 / 11
Page 6
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
The qualifications hierarchyHow many reach the top of the pyramid?
100
60
37
12
14 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
9 go immediately3 go later
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 3 / 11
Page 7
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
The qualifications hierarchyHow many reach the top of the pyramid?
100
60
37
12
6
14 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
9 go immediately3 go later
get some kind of undergraduate university qualification within 6 years after matric
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 3 / 11
Page 8
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
The qualifications hierarchyHow many reach the top of the pyramid?
100
60
37
12
6
4
14 Bachelor passes12 Diploma passes
9 go immediately3 go later
get some kind of undergraduate university qualification within 6 years after matric
get a degree within 6 years after matric
StartSchool
WriteMatric
PassMatric
AccessUniversity
CompleteUG qual
CompleteDegree
0 20 40 60 80 100
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 3 / 11
Page 9
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
Inequalities across race groupsUniversity access rates by race group - all candidates
16.619.8
43.3
47.4
8.8
14.2
36.3
42.5
71.2
63.1
72.8
63.4
53.7 53.3
66.1
59
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Black Coloured Indian White Black Coloured Indian White
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (
%)
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 3 / 11
Page 10
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
Inequalities across race groupsUniversity access rates by race group - all candidates vs Bachelor pass candidates
16.619.8
43.347.4
8.8
14.2
36.3
42.5
71.2
63.1
72.8
63.4
53.7 53.3
66.1
59
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Black Coloured Indian White Black Coloured Indian White
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (%
)
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Page 11
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
Inequalities across school quintilesUniversity access rates by school quintile - all candidates
9.211.2
14.7
23.5
45.2
4.4 5.57.4
13.7
34.9
63.265.8
67.6 68.470
44.647.8
49.653.1
62
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (
%)
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 4 / 11
Page 12
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
The qualifications hierarchy University access by race University access by school quintile
Inequalities across school quintilesUniversity access rates by school quintile - all candidates vs Bachelor pass candidates
9.211.2
14.7
23.5
45.2
4.4 5.57.4
13.7
34.9
63.265.8
67.6 68.4 70
44.647.8
49.653.1
62
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Any undergraduate programmeUndergraduate degree programme
All pass types Bachelor passes
6-ye
ar a
cces
s ra
te (%
)
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 4 / 11
Page 13
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
Delayed university entry is significant and persistentOne to six year access rates for the 2008 to 2013 matric cohorts
13.0
11.7 12
.3
10.0
13.6 14
.6
16.7
16.4 17
.7
14.2
18.7
18.2
18.3 19
.7
15.7
19.0
19.3 20
.6
19.6
19.9
20.0
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
Cum
ulat
ive
univ
ersit
y ac
cess
rat
e
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Matric Cohort
1-year 2-year 2-year 4-year 5-year 6-year
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Page 14
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
Matric performance really matters for university outcomesMatric average and university access, completion, and dropout
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Rat
e
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Matric average achievement
1-year access 6-year access 6-year completion 5-year dropout
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Page 15
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
Gateway subjects really matter for university accessGateway subject participation and performance vs university access
25.1
64.8
83.1
14.3
24.6
39.1
26.1
69.2
90.9
14.9
20.7
53.0
60%+
40%+
Wrote
60%+
40%+
Wrote
60%+
40%+
Wrote
60%+
40%+
Wrote
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mat
hsM
ath
Lite
racy
Phys
ical
Scie
nces
Engl
ishFA
L
6-year access rate (%)
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Page 16
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
Gateway subjects also matter for programme completionGateway subject participation and performance vs university completion
63.2
65.6
70.8
46.6
47.2
50.9
62.5
65.3
75.7
56.8
56.9
62.6
60%+
40%+
Wrote
60%+
40%+
Wrote
60%+
40%+
Wrote
60%+
40%+
Wrote
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Mat
hsM
ath
Lite
racy
Phys
ical
Scie
nces
Engl
ishFA
L
6-year completion rate (%)
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Page 17
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
Huge differences in matric performance across universitiesMatric average achievement distributions for the 2008 matric cohort, by university (2009 FTEN degrees)
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Mat
ric a
vera
ge a
chie
vem
ent
UC
T
US
UP
WIT
S
RH
OD
ES
UKZ
N
NW
U
UFS
NM
MU UJ
UN
ISA
MU
T
VU
T
UL
DU
T
UW
C
UN
IVEN
CPU
T
UZ
WSU
UFH
TUT
CU
T
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Page 18
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
Students take long to graduate - if at all4 vs 6-year completion rates for the 2008 matric cohort
36.9
32.3
38.8
31.8
34.9
36.0
52.7
32.9
32.9
41.5
39.0
11.3UNISA
Contact
Quintile 5
Quintile 4
Quintile 1-3
White
Asian
Coloured
Black
Degrees
Dip/Cert
Overall
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
4-year completion rate
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Page 19
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
Students take long to graduate - if at all4 vs 6-year completion rates for the 2008 matric cohort
36.9
32.3
38.8
31.8
34.9
36.0
52.7
32.9
32.9
41.5
39.0
11.3
58.1
47.8
61.6
53.5
53.8
62.1
71.6
54.0
54.2
62.9
60.6
27.9UNISA
Contact
Quintile 5
Quintile 4
Quintile 1-3
White
Asian
Coloured
Black
Degrees
Dip/Cert
Overall
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
4-year vs 6-year completion rate
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Page 20
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Delayed access Matric performance Intake performance differences (S)low throughput Dropout
University dropout is high, but not as high as often claimed5-year dropout rates for the 2008 matric cohort
28.4
39.8
22.2
32.0
33.8
22.8
18.1
33.3
30.8
23.9
27.0
45.4UNISA
Contact
Quintile 5
Quintile 4
Quintile 1-3
White
Asian
Coloured
Black
Degrees
Dip/Cert
Overall
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
5-year dropout rate (%)
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Page 21
Introduction Key findings I - 3 Key findings 4 - 8 Conclusion
Conclusion: 8 Main insightsImportant new or reaffirmed findings
1. Very few matriculants obtain university qualifications. Even fewer obtain degrees.
2. Nearly 1/3 of Bachelor passers never go to university
3. Among Bachelor passers, university access is not skewed against black students,and is less skewed against students from poorer schools than commonlybelieved. Yet, large differences in access to undergraduate degree programmesremain evident
4. Many matrics who go to university only do so two or more years after finishingschool
5. Matric performance overall and in ’gateway subjects’ are good indicators ofuniversity access and, to a lesser extent, also of university success
6. There are extremely large differences in the matric performance levels ofstudent intakes across universities
7. Many students take a long time to complete university qualifications
8. University dropout, though high, is not as high as is often reported
From Matric into and through university (29/09/2016) http://resep.sun.ac.za 11 / 11
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