MIKE KINGSELLADevelopment Manager, Holland Partner Group
Executive Director, Oregon LOCUS
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION
The Do’s and Don’ts to Achieve Affordable TOD
LOCUS NATIONAL LEADERSHIP SUMMIT | APRIL 25, 2017 | WASHINGTON, D.C.
OVERVIEW OF OREGON LOCUS
Oregon LOCUS is the first Statewide Chapter of LOCUS, Smart Growth America’s Coalition of Responsible
Developers and Investors. Oregon LOCUS is an advocacy organization that supports state and local pol-
icy that enables and promotes the development of dense, walkable neighborhoods that are economically,
socially and environmentally sustainable.
In 2016, Oregon LOCUS worked with the City of Portland and other key stakeholders to provide important
analysis and policy discussion around Inclusionary Housing (“IH”) within days of its forming as an organiza-
tion, and is now continuing with accountability and measures of success for the IH program as well as craft-
ing additional industry-led policy solutions to urban housing, land use and transportation issues statewide.
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 2
REGIONALLY SIGNIFICANT LOCAL SERVING
SUBDIVISION/EDGELESS CITYTri-State Land Area: 95.0%DRIVEABLE SUBURBAN DRIVE-IN
Tri-State Land Area: 2.3%
METROPOLITAN LAND USE IN THE U.S.
WALKABLE URBAN WALKUPTri-State Land Area: 0.5%
NEIGHBORHOODTri-State Land Area: 2.0%
1Source: The WalkUP Wake-Up Call: New York, Leinberger, C., Rodriguez, M., Loh, T., The George Washington University School of Business (2017)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 3
PORTLAND’S URBAN GROWTH BOUNDARY
Though widely known for its walkable urbanism, rail transit and bikeability, 87% of metro Portland’s walkable urbanism is in its center city. Though Orenco Station is a national model of greenfield transit-oriented development, Portland has experienced little urbanization in its suburbs. The metro area continues to build drivable sub-urban patterns, in spite of an urban growth boundary meant to discourage sprawl.
1Source: Foot Traffic Ahead: Ranking Walkable Urbanism in America’s Largest Metros, Leinberger, C., Rodriguez, M., The George Washington University School of Business (2016)2Source: Metro (2016)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 4
PORTLAND’S PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION
WIL LAM
ETTE R I V ERRail System
September 2015
Washington Park toRose Quarter: 24 min
NW Portland toSouth Waterfront: 32 min
NW Portland toSouth Waterfront: 32 min
PSU to Rose Quarter: 17 min
PSU to Rose Quarter: 17 min
Convention Center/NE 7thto OMSI: 13 min
Convention Center/NE 7thto OMSI: 13 min
19 m
in
17 min
12 min
15 min
14 min
10 min
16 min
27 m
in
25 min
13 min
SE 17th & Rhine toPSU: 11 min
SE 17th & Rhine toPSU: 11 min
NorthrupBroadway
Weidler
Lovejoy
11th
10th 6t
h
5th
6th
5th
Morrison
18th
1st
Yamhill
Grand
Martin Luther King Jr
Bond
Moo
dy
Mill
Market
Harrison
Portland Aerial Tram
7th
23rd
Hawth
orn
Farm
Was
hing
ton/
SE 12
th
Merlo
/SW
158t
hHillsb
oro C
entra
l/SE 3
rd Tr
ansit
Cen
ter
Beav
erto
n Ce
ntra
l
Portland Airport
Mt Hood
Cascades
SE Main
SE Division
SE Powell
SE Holgate
Lents Town Center/SE Foster
SE Flavel
SE Fuller
Clackamas Town Center Transit Center
Overlook Park
N Prescott
N Killingsworth
Rosa Parks
Kenton/Denver
N Lombard Transit Center
Delta Park/Vanport
Expo Center
Albina/Mississippi
E 102
nd
E 148
thE 1
62nd
E 172
nd
Ruby
Junc
tion/
E 197
th
Civic
DrRo
ckwoo
d/E 1
88th
Was
hing
ton
Park
SE Bybee
SE Tacoma/Johnson Creek
SE 17th & Rhine
SE Park
Milwaukie/Main
SE 17th & Holgate
Clinton/SE 12thOMSISE Water
Goose HollowSW Jefferson
Pioneer Courthouse
SW Pine
Pioneer Place
SW Madison
SW Montgomery
SW College
City HallSW Jefferson
SW Mill
SW Jackson
Providence Park
Kings HillSW Salmon
MallSW 4th
MallSW 5th
SW3rd
SW Oak
LibrarySW 9th
GalleriaSW 10th
PioneerSquare S
PioneerSquare N
YamhillDistrict
Old TownChinatownOld TownChinatown
NW Hoyt
NW Davis
NW Glisan
NW Couch
Skidmore FountainSkidmore Fountain
Oak/SW 1stOak/SW 1st
LincolnSW 3rd
South WaterfrontSW MoodySouth WaterfrontSW Moody
Suns
et Tr
ansit
Cen
ter
Beav
erto
n Tr
ansit
Cen
terHat
field
Gov
ernm
ent C
ente
rTu
ality
Hos
pita
l/SE 8
thFa
ir Co
mpl
ex/H
illsb
oro A
irpor
tOre
nco/
NW 23
1st
Quata
ma/
NW 20
5th
Will
ow C
reek
/SW
185t
h Tr
ansit
Cen
ter
Elm
onica
/SW
170t
hBe
aver
ton
Cree
kMill
ikan
Way
E 122
nd
Parkrose/Sumner Transit Center
E 181
st
Gresh
am C
ity H
all
Clev
elan
d
Gresh
am C
entra
l Tra
nsit
Cent
er
Hall/Nimbus
Tigard Transit Center
Tualatin
Wilsonville
46
47 48
57
46
47
52 5
9 88 C
C RID
ER
67
62
2
0 48 5
0 59 6
2 TCT
D
6
3
20
52 53
54 57
58 61
76 78
88 SM
ART
6 58 68
15 18 51 63 15 18 51 63
15
4
9
17
10 14 71
19
29 30 33 34 71 72 79 152 155 156
35 85
72
44
4 75
4
C-TRAN
11
15 20
71
2
5 87
20 25
87
4 21
87
4
9 20
21 80
81 84
87 SA
M
76 78
12 45 64 76 78 93 94 YCTA
76
CAT CHERRIOTS SMART
12 21 71 C-TRAN
Gatew
ay/N
E 99t
h
Tra
nsit
Cent
er
Rose
Qua
rter T
rans
it Ce
nter
Conv
entio
n Ce
nter
NE 7th
Lloy
d Ce
nter
/NE 1
1th
Holly
wood
Tran
sit C
ente
r
NE 60t
hNE 8
2nd
4
8 44
77 85
C-TR
AN
7
2 77
6 8 70
7
1
15 1
9 22 2
3 24 2
5 87
15 1
9 22 2
3 24 2
5 87
6
6 75 7
7
InterstateRose Quarter
InterstateRose Quarter
35
Park & Ride
Secure Bike Parking
Bus Transfer Nearby35 NORTH
MAX Green LineClackamas/City Center/PSU
MAX Blue LineHillsboro/City Center/Gresham
MAX Red LineAirport/City Center/Beaverton
MAX Orange LineMilwaukie/City Center
MAX Yellow LineExpo Center/City Center/PSU
Portland Streetcar A LoopPSU/City Center/Lloyd Center/OMSI
Portland Streetcar B LoopPSU/OMSI/Lloyd Center/City Center
WES Commuter RailWilsonville/Beaverton
Portland Streetcar North South LineNW 23rd/City Center/South Waterfront
GRESHAM
BEAVERTON
N PORTLAND
HILLSBORO
CLACKAMAS
MILWAUKIE
AIRPORT
UNIONSTATION
SOUTHWATERFRONT
NWPORTLAND
PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY
SEPORTLAND
NEPORTLAND
PO
RT
LA
ND
T
RA
NS
IT
MA
LL
WILSONVILLE
MARQUAMHILL
33 99
29 32 33 34
34 99
19
17 70
17 70
9 17 70
9 17 43
9 17 35 36
9 17
1Source: Trimet (2015)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 5
UGB(Supply Constraint)
Housing Affordability
PopulationGrowth
YOU CAN’T STOP THE WATER(POPULATION GROWTH)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 6
UGBHousing
Affordability
PopulationGrowth
AS POPULATION INCREASES,AFFORDABILITY DECREASES,UNLESS YOU BUILD AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF HOUSING.
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 7
UGBPopulationGrowth
ONE OPTION IS TO GROW OUT,HOWEVER THIS HAS INFRASTRUCTURE COST IMPLICATIONS THAT ARE FINANCIALLY STRAPPING MANY CITIES
Housing Affordability
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 8
UGBHousing
Affordability
PopulationGrowth
THE SOLUTION IS TO GROW UP, IN PLACES WHERE INFRASTRUCTURE DOLLARS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPENT
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 9
LACK OF ADEQUATE HOUSING SUPPLY POLITICALLY UNSUSTAINABLE
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 10
PORTLAND’S CENTRAL CITY PLAN
25 STORIES13 STORIES
1Source: City of Portland Bureau of Planning and Sustainability (2017)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 11
PORTLAND’S SOUTH WATERFRONTWHAT WAS PLANNED
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 12
PORTLAND’S SOUTH WATERFRONTWHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE?
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 13
$1.1B LOSTPROPERTY TAX REVENUE OVER USEFUL LIFE OF PROJECT
$11.3MANNUAL PROPERTY TAX REVENUE LOST
1,800 UNITS LOST
3,300 RESIDENTS LOST
2,274METRIC TONS OF CO2
NOT REDUCED ANNUALLY
AS DEVELOPED
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED
PORTLAND SOUTH WATERFRONT
Lost tax revenue by building lower-density forms
1Source: Multnomah County Assessor (2017) 2Source: Holland Estimates Developed Using IMPLAN and Proprietary Modeling
466 CARS ADDED TO ROADS
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 14
BUILT VS. ZONED HIGH DENSITY SOUTH WATERFRONT | PORTLAND, OR
1Source: Multnomah County Assessor (2017)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 15
1Source: Multnomah County Assessor (2017) 2Source: Holland Experience
ANNUAL PROPERTY TAX REVENUE BY PRODUCT TYPE
25
1,000
$2.46M
$.06M
$.23M
$175
75
850
$10.14M
$.24M
$.69M
$250
11%
45
900
$5.53M
$.13M
$.41M
$225
29%
SUBURBANSUBDIVISION
GARDEN 4-STORY SLABON GRADE
WRAP PODIUM HIGH-RISE
VA
LUE
6
1,500
$0.74M
$0.02M
$0.21M
$130
125
750
$21.51M
$.51M
$1.15M
$315
26%
500
650
$98.32M
$2.32M
$4.60M
$400
27%
HOUSING UNITS PER ACRE
SQUARE FEET PER HOUSING UNIT
TAXABLE VALUE PER ACRE
ANNUAL TAX REVENUE PER ACRE
IMPACT FEE PER ACRE
COST PER SQUARE FOOT
INCREMENTAL COST PREMIUM
CITY
BRE
AK E
VEN
— 6
0 HO
USIN
G UN
ITS
PER
ACRE
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 16
$90,000,000 | $50,000/UNITINFRASTRUCTUREINSTALLATION
LONG-TERM MAINTENANCE COSTS ARE ESTIMATED AT $395 MILLION OR $220,000/UNIT
1,800 HOMES | 300 ACRES | 6 UNITS/ACRE
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 17
MARKET RATE HOUSING DEVELOPMENTPUBLIC INVESTMENT RETURN ANALYSIS
Homes Built at Edge of UGB in
Driveable Suburban Form
Homes Built Near Transit in Dense, Walkable Urban Form
UNITS ACRES DUAPUBLIC
INVESTMENT1, 2
ANNUAL TAXREVENUE
GENERATED3
1,800 300 6$395,000,000
$220,000 per dwelling unit
$5,225,703
1,800 8 225$161,668,564
$90,000 per dwelling unit
$17,628,038
PAYBACKPERIOD4
76 years
9 years
1Public investment in driveable suburban development represents the long-term infrastructure maintenance with curbs, gutters, streets, roads, wet utilities, dry utilities installed and put into service by developer. 2Public investment in dense, walkable urban development represents a 10 year abatement of 80% of property taxes. This is the key ingredient in financing the incremental cost premium of high-rise versus podium product. 3Source: Multnomah County Assessor (2016) 4Based on Payback Period Concept as discussed in the essay the “Growth Ponzi Scheme, Part 2.” Thoughts on Building Strong Towns, Volume 1, Marohn, C. (2012)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 18
$210M ADDEDPROPERTY TAX REVENUE OVER USEFUL LIFE OF PROJECT FROM A $16.8M INVESTMENT
$2.1MANNUAL PROPERTY
TAX REVENUE ADDED
770 UNITS ADDED
1,425 RESIDENTS ADDED
975 METRIC TONSOF CO2 REDUCED ANNUALLY
1Source: Washington County Assessor (2017)2Source: Holland Estimates Developed Using IMPLAN and Proprietary Modeling
200 CARS TAKEN OFF
THE ROAD
ORENCO STATIONAdditional tax revenue by enabling appropriate density
AS ZONED, LOW DENSITY, MARKET RATE DEVELOPMENT WITH NO CITY PARTICIPATION
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 19
BUILT VS ZONED LOW DENSITYPLATFORM DISTRICT, ORENCO STATION, HILLSBORO, OREGON
1Source: Washington County Assessor (2017)
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 20
POLICY CONCEPTWALKUP REGENERATION DISTRICT
• Focus on strategic transit-oriented development locations.
• Prioritize locations where existing infrastructure can support increased density.
• Prioritize potential regionally significant and emerging regionally significant walkable urban places.
• Remove height and FAR restrictions in these districts.
• Capture increased tax revenue over and above potential tax-revenue based on existing zoning.
• Use such incremental revenue to fund affordable housing and other community assets.
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 21
$1.1B LOSTPROPERTY TAX REVENUE OVER USEFUL LIFE OF PROJECT
$11.3MANNUAL PROPERTY TAX REVENUE LOST
1,800 UNITS LOST
3,300 RESIDENTS LOST
2,274METRIC TONS OF CO2
NOT REDUCED ANNUALLY
AS DEVELOPED
WHAT COULD HAVE BEEN DEVELOPED
PORTLAND SOUTH WATERFRONT
Lost tax revenue by building lower-density forms
1Source: Multnomah County Assessor (2017) 2Source: Holland Experience
466 CARS ADDED
TO ROADS
5,360 PERMANENTLY
AFFORDABLE UNITS NOT FUNDED
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 22
THE RESULT:PERPETUAL AFFORDABLE HOUSING FUND
Current Development Levels
$5,600,000DEDICATED TO THE
AFFORDABLE HOUSING FUND
SUPPORT FOR 2,349 UNITS IN PORTLAND AT 80% OF MFI
$17,600,000
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 23
WALKUP REGENERATION DISTRICT IMPLEMENTATION SCENARIO
$33.3MANNUAL PROPERTY
TAX REVENUE ADDED
7,370 UNITS ADDED
9,210RESIDENTS ADDED
2,530CARS
OFF THE ROAD
1GBD Architects (2016)2Multnomah County Assessor (2016)
PORTLAND: 5 Potential Walkup Urban LocationsWhat could be developed with vertical public investment
As zoned, low density, financially feasible market rate development with no vertical public investment
1 2
3 4 5
1. OMSI 2. Post Office 3. Conway 4. SOWA 5. Rose Quarter
31,860PERMANENTLY
AFFORDABLE UNITS FUNDED
FROM POLICY TO IMPLEMENTATION: THE DO’S AND DON’TS TO ACHIEVE AFFORDABLE TOD MIKE KINGSELLA DEVELOPMENT MANAGER, HOLLAND PARTNER GROUP AND EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, OREGON LOCUS | 24
THANK YOU!
