Third International Early Warning Conference Scientific and Technical Symposium Bonn, Germany, 28 March 2006 From Sudden Local From Sudden Local Wildland Wildland Fire Disasters Fire Disasters to to Transboundary Transboundary Impacts Impacts of Creeping of Creeping Wildland Wildland Fire Mega Events: Fire Mega Events: Needs for Global Early Warning of Needs for Global Early Warning of Wildland Wildland Fire within a UN Fire within a UN Multi Multi - - Hazard Global Early Warning System Hazard Global Early Warning System Presented by: Johann G. Goldammer Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) Coordinator of UNISDR Wildland Fire Advisory Group & UNISDR Global Wildland Fire Network
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Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
From Sudden Local From Sudden Local WildlandWildland Fire DisastersFire Disastersto to TransboundaryTransboundary ImpactsImpacts
of Creeping of Creeping WildlandWildland Fire Mega Events: Fire Mega Events:
Needs for Global Early Warning of Needs for Global Early Warning of WildlandWildland Fire within a UN Fire within a UN MultiMulti--Hazard Global Early Warning SystemHazard Global Early Warning System
Presented by:Johann G. GoldammerGlobal Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC)
Coordinator ofUNISDR Wildland Fire Advisory Group &UNISDR Global Wildland Fire Network
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
A joint paper prepared in conjunction with the project proposal
Development of a Global Development of a Global WildlandWildland Fire Early Warning System Fire Early Warning System within the envisaged Multiwithin the envisaged Multi--Hazard Global Early Warning SystemHazard Global Early Warning System
Co-authored by
Johann G. Goldammer1, Michael Brady2, Ivan A. Csiszar3, William J. de Groot2, Christopher O. Justice3, Tom Keenan4, Eckehard Lorenz5,
Kevin O’Loughlin6, Timothy J. Lynham7, Dieter Oertel5, Brian J. Stocks2
1 Global Fire Monitoring Center (GFMC) 2 Canadian Forest Service3 University of Maryland, U.S.A.4 Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, Australia5 Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Germany6 Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre, Australia
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Facts and Trends (I): Increasing landFacts and Trends (I): Increasing land--use and fire pressureuse and fire pressure
Human population growth in many countries is associated with accelerating conversion of natural vegetation to
Agricultural and pastoral systemsDevelopment of residential areasDevelopment of infrastructures and traffic
Land-use change is involving conversion of the natural space that traditionally had been uninhabited or uncultivated before
Extreme mountain slopesCoastal regionsFloodplains
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Underlying Causes of Increasing Fire OccurrenceUnderlying Causes of Increasing Fire OccurrenceIn many countries vegetation conversion is associated with the use of fire for land clearing
Poverty-driven: Slash-and-burn agricultureMarket-driven: Large-scale forest conversion for agribusiness (establishment of soybean,sugar cane and oil palm plantations)
Increasing occurrence of uncontrolled wildfiresescaping from land-use fires or set intentionally
illegal activities: Hiding of illegal loggingEconomic and political: Land tenure conflicts
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Facts and Trends (II): Decreasing landFacts and Trends (II): Decreasing land--use and wildfires use and wildfires In industrialized countries (e.g., Europe, North America, Australia) several trends are observed that are leading to an increase of wildfire hazard(uncontrolled fires resulting in economic and ecological damages):
Rural exodus of the poor: Abandonmentof the rural space - less intensive utilization of biomass - increasing fire hazardEx-urban move of the wealthier: Housing areas at the wildland-urban interface are increasingly vulnerable to wildland fire Plantations of fast growing trees: Highfuel loads resulting in high-intensity and high-severity wildfires
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Impacts of Impacts of Wildland Wildland Fires (I): ImmediateFires (I): ImmediatePrevention of and preparedness for sudden wildland fire events requires functioning early warning systems in order to reduce
Economic losses: Forestry, agriculture, infrastructures, cultural assetsFatalities: People at risk (professionals & general public)Public health: Smoke pollution
Examples of smoke pollution episodes:Examples of smoke pollution episodes:Estimates of weekly premature deaths due to PMEstimates of weekly premature deaths due to PM--1010in Indonesia and Brazil 1997in Indonesia and Brazil 1997--9898
Smoke Smoke Impacts of peat fires in Moscow RegionImpacts of peat fires in Moscow Regionand in and in RussiaRussia‘‘ss Far East (Far East (20022002--2005)2005)
Composition of vegetation fire smoke Acute toxicity:
Particulate effects on the respiratory / cardiovascular systems
Respiratory infections in adults and childrenAcute and chronic changes in pulmonary functionAsthma attacksCardiovascular diseases (CVD)Hospital admissionsIncrease of daily mortality
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Impacts of Impacts of WildlandWildland Fires (II): LongFires (II): Long--term / creepingterm / creepingWildland fire early warning and uncontrolled fire incident reduction will contribute to reduce disasters that are consequence of creeping environmental degradation, e.g.
Secondary disasters local to landscape level: Mudslides, land and rockslides, flash floods, and flooding at landscape level Regional to global significance: Loss of natural biodiversity, desertificationClimate change: Transfer of terrestrial carbon to the atmosphere = additional contribution to the greenhouse effect and global warming
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Landslide in Landslide in LeyteLeyte, The Philippines, The PhilippinesFebruary 2006February 2006
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Long-term Effects of Interactions between Vegetation Degradation and Climate Change
• Effects of Global Climate Change on VegetationIncreasing continental drynessIncreasing occurrence of wildfiresIncreasing severity of wildfiresIncrease of cyclonesAccelerated desertificationDisplacement of populationsIncreasing vulnerability of populations
Potential Effect of Climate Change: Increase of Fire Hazard in the Boreal Zone (Canadian Climate Center Global Circulation Model)
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Maintenance of Vegetation Cover by Fire ManagementMaintenance of Vegetation Cover by Fire Management
• Stable vegetation cover is essential for Stabilizing the soil surfaceIncreasing the resilience of natural and cultivated ecosystems against degradation and susceptibility to extreme natural events
• The protecting elements of vegetationRootsHumus and grass layerStems and leaves of brush and trees
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Involvement of peopleInvolvement of people
• Local level: Active involvement of local populations Principle: Assume responsibility to maintain stability and productivity of land-use systems in their immediate area of influence and interest.Approaches: Community-Based Forest Management or Community-Based Fire ManagementCommunity-based and people-centred Wildland Fire Early Warning Systems
• National level: Policies Prevention and preparedness Development of land-use plansImplementation and law enforcement
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Need to harmonize national, regional and global Need to harmonize national, regional and global operational and experimental operational and experimental WildlandWildland Fire Early Warning Fire Early Warning SystemsSystems
The necessary science and technology exists, but a globally The necessary science and technology exists, but a globally coordinated effort by multiple international partners is requirecoordinated effort by multiple international partners is requiredd
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Development of a Global Development of a Global WildlandWildland Fire Early Warning Fire Early Warning System within the envisaged MultiSystem within the envisaged Multi--Hazard Global Early Hazard Global Early Warning SystemWarning System
Welcome to theWelcome to theWildlandWildland Fire Side EventFire Side EventTodayTodayRoom B, 13:00Room B, 13:00--14:5014:50
Third International Early Warning ConferenceScientific and Technical SymposiumBonn, Germany, 28 March 2006
Thanks for your attentionThanks for your attention
