Frost & Sullivan Das Active Safety

© Frost & Sullivan 2008

Future Evolution of Advanced Driver Assistance Systems in Europe

Nick Ford Senior ConsultantFROST & SULLIVAN


Ag

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S Overview of the Market for Safety and DAS Technologies

Active Safety Technologies – Identifying Growth Opportunities

Customer Attitudes and Perceptions towards Safety Technologies

Conclusions & Recommendations


Key Product Launches in Automotive Safety Market – 2007Collision avoidance is a key development area – Europe’s first system using Radar + Camera

sensor fusion for Emergency braking

Driver Alert Control (DAC)Production Models : S80, V70 and XC70

Sensor Used : CMOS Camera

Developed by : Volvo, Mobileye

System Functioning : LDW camera monitors distance between the car and the road lane markings to determine whether the driver risks losing control or not.

Collision Warning with Automatic BrakingProduction Models : S80, V70 and XC70

Sensor Used : Camera + Radar

Developed by : Volvo, Mobileye, Delphi

System Functioning : Sensor fusion of radar and camera data for obstacle detection with initial audio and video warnings followed pre-charging of the brakes or automatic-braking in the case of driver inaction.

Park4U Semi-autonomous ParkingProduction Models : VW Touran, Tiguan

Sensor Used : Ultrasonic sensors

Developed by : Valeo

System Functioning : The system measures a parallel parking space and guides the car into the gap taking steering control, with the driver required to just accelerate or brake.

* Launched in 2008

PathFindIR – Automotive Night Vision

(Aftermarket)Sensor Used : Far Infra-red camera

Developed by : FLIR + NAV-TV

System Functioning : PathFindIR is an autonomous, stand-alone camera system that uses thermal imaging for improved road visibility in night driving conditions. The system can be installed on any vehicle platform quickly and easily.

*

Lane Departure Warning (LDW) – Camera BasedProduction Models : BMW 5-Series

Sensor Used : CMOS Camera

Developed by : Siemens VDO + Mobileye


Key Product Launches in Automotive Safety Market – 2008City Safety – Europe’s first Low Speed Collision Avoidance System to be installed as a standard in

Volvo XC60

City Safety systemProduction Models : XC60

Sensor Used : Infrared Sensors

Developed by : Volvo, Continental

System Functioning :Three Infrared Sensors behind the windscreen scans the front of the vehicle up to 6 m and can bring the car to a complete halt if the relative speeds are less than 15 km/hr

Audi Side AssistProduction Models : A4 , Q7

Sensor Used : 24 GHz sensors

Developed by : Hella

System Functioning :The system constantly monitors the adjacent right and left lanes. It provides an optical alert - with warning lights on the side mirrors .

Blind Spot DetectionProduction Models : Jaguar XF

Sensor Used : 24 GHz sensors

Developed by : Valeo

System Functioning :This radar based sensor technology alerts a vehicle driver of the presence of another vehicle at the rear blind spot. A visible icon is displayed in the side view mirror in such a situation, thus alerting the driver.

Intelligent Park AssistProduction Models : A3

Sensor Used : Ultrasonic Sensors

Developed by : Unknown

System Functioning :. The system measures a parallel parking space and guides the car into the gap taking steering control, with the driver required to just accelerate or brake


Key events/concepts in Automotive Safety Market – 2008

Renewed interest in monitoring driver and driving behaviour for accident prevention

* Announced in 2008

Attention Assist SystemExpected Launch Year : 2009

Developed by : Mercedes

System Functioning : The system warns the driver of tiredness using various sensors to analyse driving behaviour. The system creates a driver behaviour profile during normal driving and compares it in different scenarios to detect fatigue

Blaupunkt “Dual View” SystemExpected Launch Year : 2009

Developed by : Bosch

System Functioning : The system displays two different programs on a single screen with the driver and passenger able to view different images based upon the angle of viewing, with space requirements remaining the same.

*

Integrated Project GST(Global System for Telematics)

Developed by : Renault + BMW

System Functioning : Renault and BMW jointly developed a rescue scenario and implemented it for the first time in vehicle prototypes, focusing specifically on inter-vehicle communication. The prototypes have interoperable telematics with open architecture for easy communication.

Saab – Driver Attention Warning

SystemDeveloped by : Saab

System Functioning : Development project for designing a system that Detects Driver Drowsiness & Driver Inattention – Utilizes two miniature infra-red cameras, one installed at the base of the driver’s A-pillar and the other in the center of the main fascia, focused on the driver’s eyes.


Nissan ASV-4: Using V2X communication for avoiding accidents at intersections and better traffic management

V2V Communication:The Nissan ASV-4 warning system employs vehicle-to-vehicle communications to alert the driver to take defensive actions in situations where an on-coming vehicle is not yet visible, but poses a potential threat to road safety.

ITS Project:The system is fed traffic data via links to traffic infrastructure (e.g. using beacons)

Another on-going project employs telematics via cellular phones to improve traffic flow and reduce traffic congestion


•ABS

•Front air bag

•Side air bag

•Seat belt

•Seat belt warning

•Passive Pedestrian protection systems

• Lane Departure Warning (LDW)

•Tire Pressure Monitoring Systems (TPMS)

•Blind Spot Detection (BSD)

•EBS / ABS

•ESP

•Emergency Brake Assist (EBA)

•Active Steering

Intra-brand Crash

Compatibilty

•Occupant Detection and classification

• Anti Submarining and variable stage deployment airbag

•Whiplash protection

•Belt pretensioning

Automatic Crash Notification

•Driver Drowsiness Warning

•Integrated Lane Change Assistance /Lane keeping System. Curve speed warning

•Integrated Chassis System

•Active Pedestrian protection systems

•Pre-Crash Occupant Protection

Crash Compatibilty

across Brands and Body

Styles

Advanced Automatic Crash

Notification

1995

2005

2015

2025

Driver Warning and Information Systems

Vehicle Stability Systems

Occupant Protection

Safety SystemsPartner Protection

Automatic Notification

System

Active Safety Systems Passive Safety Systems

• ACC

• ACC (Stop & Go)

•Integrated Lane Change Assistance /Lane keeping System

•Longitudinal and Lateral Collision Avoidance systems

•Intelligent Speed

Collision Avoidance

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Safety Systems Evolution 1995 - 2015

Source: Frost & Sullivan

Inter-section support, Urban Driving Assistance, Rural Driving Assistance

Integration of DAS Applications with MAP Data


Asia is the Major Contributor to the Global Safety Systems Market Revenues Attributable to Wider Installation in Japan

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cast

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

Active Safety Passive Safety

Year 2012

Year 2012

$38.3Billion

54.7%

45.3%

53.3% 53.0%56.8%

43.2%

46.7% 47.0%

Mil

lio

n U

S$

$11.6Billion $10.9

Billion

$15.8Billion

Year 2006

$26.1Billion

51.9%

48.1%

CAGR 6.6%

Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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cast Global Active Safety Systems Market Revenues to Exceed 20

Billion USD by 2012Global Active Safety Systems Market: Revenue Forecasts (in Million US$), 2006 and 2012

Note: ABS/ESC – Antilock Braking System / Electronic Stability Control, TPMS – Tyre Pressure Monitoring System, LDW – Lane Departure Warning, BSD – Blind Spot Detection, NVS – Night Vision System, PA – Parking Assistance, ACC – Adaptive Cruise Control

Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan

$21 Billion

0

3,000

6,000

9,000

ABS/ESP TPMS LDW BSD NVS IPA ACC

Year 2012

Year 2006 Year 2012

$12.5 Billion

71.7%

8.6%

61.3%

5.8%

10.5%

84.6%65.0%

42.7%

5.5%

15.7%

5.7%

22.7%

2.8%

Mil

lio

n U

S$

CAGR 8.9%

9.6%1.3%

1.2%

1.1%

11.6%

7.0%

1.0%

10.0%

$6.2 Billion

$9 Billion

$5.8 Billion3.7%

7.3%3.4%

5.7%

17.3%

13.1%

2.1%

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Pen

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_

+

Lane Departure Warning (LDW) 4.3%

Blind Spot Detection (BSD) 6.0%

Adaptive Cruise Control 8.2%

Seat - Active Massage (Driver/Passenger) 8.5%

EHB + Hybrid braking+ EMB /EWB 14.0%

Seat - Ventilation (Driver/Passenger) 19.2%

A

B

C

Active Steering 20.0%

DVD 24.0%

Air Suspension 25.0%

Start-stop system 30.0%

Occupant Sensing Systems 33.2%

DCT + AMTs 35.0%

Advanced ESP 35.0%

Multi-functional Switches 36.0%

Pay as you drive (PAYD) 35 - 40%

Turbocharger (% of gasoline) 40.0%

Embedded Navigation 40.0%

VVT (% of gasoline) 42.5%

In-vehicle Displays 48.0%

Passive Hands free 55.0%

GDI (% of gasoline) 57.5%

Whiplash Protection Systems 61.1%

EPS -> CEPS + PEPS + REPS 70.0%

Stolen Vehicle Tracking 75.0%

RVD 75.0%

MP3/ WMA 91.0%

Standard ESP 100.0%

e-call 100.0%

DPF (%of diesel) 100.0%

Tyre Pressure Monitoring System 100.0%

2020

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Legislation driven technologies like e-call and Tyre Pressure Monitoring are expected to have a high penetration in EU

Lea

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s A – Technologies Driven By Legislation

B – Features Standard in higher segment vehicles, but optional in mid and lower segments

C – Features that will only be available as option


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Passive Safety Technologies – Growth Opportunities in a mature market





Integration of DAS with navigation and post-crash safety systems reaching introduction phase

Obstacle sensors to become commodity products – CMOS

presents strong growth opportunities

Non-chassis suppliers making in-roads into DAS market including

low-speed maneuvering

Success of DAS features will be

significantly influenced by quality of HMI

Potential end-user demand for DAS in

the aftermarket – new products entering

market

Key

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Active Safety Systems – The Burning Topics

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Source: Frost & Sullivan study on European Markets for Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, 2006

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2004 2010 2015

Collision Warning (CW)Collision Warning (CW)

Night Vision System (NVS)Night Vision System (NVS)

Lane Departure Warning (LDW)Lane Departure Warning (LDW)

Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)

Intelligent Park AssistIntelligent Park Assist

Blind Spot DetectionBlind Spot Detection

AutomaticAutomatic Audible and VisualAudible and Visual

Push ButtonPush Button Visual DisplayVisual Display

Push ButtonPush Button HapticHaptic

Push ButtonPush Button Automatic braking and acceleration. Automatic braking and acceleration.

Push ButtonPush Button Visual DisplayVisual Display

Push ButtonPush Button Warning Light and AudibleWarning Light and Audible Push ButtonPush Button Visual DisplayVisual Display

CMOSCMOS

Radar 24 GHz > 79 GHzRadar 24 GHz > 79 GHz

CMOS based Near Infrared SensorsCMOS based Near Infrared Sensors

Far Infrared SensorsFar Infrared Sensors

Infrared Sensors (2004)Infrared Sensors (2004)

CMOSCMOS

Radar 76/77 (1998)Radar 76/77 (1998)

Lidar Sensors (2003)Lidar Sensors (2003)

24 GHz Sensors > 79 GHz Sensors24 GHz Sensors > 79 GHz Sensors

Fusion of Radar 76/77 & CMOSFusion of Radar 76/77 & CMOS

CMOSCMOS

CMOSCMOS

Infrared SensorsInfrared Sensors

Radar 24 GHz > 79 GHzRadar 24 GHz > 79 GHz

CM

OS

Sh

ari

ng

AC

C,

LD

W,

NV

S &

CW

CM

OS

Sh

ari

ng

AC

C,

LD

W,

NV

S &

CW

Input Option

s

Input Option

s

Output Option

s

Output Option

s

Driver Assistance SystemDriver Assistance System Sensors UsedSensors Used

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Ro

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Key Dimensions – Systems, Sensors, HMI



Rea

rR

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Growing Interest from OEMs in Low Speed Driving Assistance

Applications

2005 2010 2015

Sid

eS

ide

Fro

nt

Fro

nt

Standalone Ultrasonic

Park Assist

Intelligent Park Assist

Parallel Parking / side

protection

Rear Perpendicular

Parking

Front Perpendicular

Parking / Side View

Forward / Garage

Parking System

Standalone Ultrasonic

Park Assist

360o

Monitoring

Low Speed

Parking and

Driving

Assistance

Systems


Supplier Customers Cost

• Present: Volkswagen 5 Models

• Future :16 Models by 2010

Current Penetration:15%

650 €

• Toyota Prius T Spirit

• Toyota Lexus

• Current Penetration: 40% in

Lexus

• 2600 € pack that includes satellite navigation and

Bluetooth connectivity

unnamed European vehicle in

2009 NA

No Production Customers So far NA

unnamed European vehicle in

2009 NA

Valeo is a clear leader in the Intelligent Park Assist Market and will supply to 16 models by 2010

Slot Length: In relation to the length of the car

Valeo: 1.08

Aisin:1.3

Hella:1.1

TRW:1.2

Minimum time to park

Valeo:42 sec

Aisin :74 sec


TRW- 15-20%

Bosch-45-50%

Delphi 1- 4% Continental, 30-35%

Others 5-10%

Supplier Market Share for ACC Stop & go, 2014

•Beyond 2010,the market will witness the entry of new suppliers like TRW , Delphi* , Hella with stop & go capabilities ‘

•Bosch is expected to be the market leader with almost 50% of the market share supplying to higher end and high medium models within BMW and Audi

•Suppliers like TRW , Delphi . are expected to cater to Volkswagen , Jaguar, General motors models respectively

Continental, 17.8%

Bosch, 82.2%

Denso, 1.0%

Supplier Market Share for ACC Stop & go, 2008

•Bosch leads the way in ACC Stop & go market with more than 80% of the market share

•Bosch supplies to BMW , and Audi models

•Continental is a follower in the market with 17.8 % of the market share

•Continental supplies ACC Stop & go systems to Mercedes models

The market for ACC stop & go to witness entry of new suppliers to cater to high end cars within volume manufacturers

* Delphi sensor developed with Fujitsu 10


Vehicle to vehicle communication

Vehicle to Infrastructure communication

Lane Change Assistance

Side AssistLane Departure

Warning

Collision Warning

Rear collision warning and mitigation

Extended Collision Warning

Extended rear Collision

Warning and blind-spot

Communication & sensor based

Sensor based

Challenges1.Scalable and reliable communication system

2.Secutity issues

3.Availability (coverage area)

4.Certain market penetration necessary for availability

5.Needs cross industry synergy and government support for deployment


Car- Car and Car –Infrastructure communication is the next big thing for vehicle technology with extensive benefits to all stake holders

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ACC

Digital Map data key forMany ADAS Applications

Lane Departure Warning Fuel Economy

Adaptive Front Lighting

Curve Warning

Electronic Stability Control

Bosch, BMWBosch, BMWAisin, ToyotaAisin, Toyota

Visteon ( Ford)Visteon ( Ford)

Navimatic Transmission

Aisin, ToyotaAisin, Toyota

Valeo, PSAValeo, PSA

Continental, Mercedes Benz

Continental, Mercedes Benz

Aisin, ToyotaAisin, Toyota

Host of ADAS Applications where Digital Map Data is a Key Component for Enhanced Accuracy and Results

Vehicle speed sensor

Steering angle sensor

Vehicle height sensor

Digital Map Data

GPS Sensor

SensorFusion

Adaptive Front Lighting Systems

Example of digital map acting as a sensor

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Curve Warning & Driving Stability Improvement System

• Toyota jointly developed with Aisin and currently available in Europe on select Toyota models

• System uses digital map data to sense curvature radius

• Suspension damping forces gets optimum control in line with the curvature radius

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Map based applications

Fuel Economy and Emissions

Short term20062012

Long term 20162020

Medium term 20122015

Map enabled ADAS systems

• Speed Limit• Stop Light/Sign• Sharp Curve

• Predictive Cruise Control

• ACC

• No Passing Zone• Overtaking Zone

• Hybrid Power Management• Predictive Shift Transmission

• Lane Merge• Pedestrian Crossing

• Adaptive Front Lightning • Collision avoidance • BSD

• LDW• LCA• ACC stop & go

ADAS and Telematics Integration Inaccurate map data information and defining, standardizing information exchange interface remains a major challenge


AM/FM radio

Digital satellite radio

Wireless LAN

Satellite data

Infrared

Cellular

Local Area communication

Coverage and availability

Good availability

Affordable , Good bandwidth

Global availability

Affordable and good bandwidth

Availability and coverage

One way communication

One way communication

Accident hot spot coverage

High cost low speed

Line of sight communication

High cost and low speed

Wide Area communication

Bluetooth No license , affordable

Limited capacity

Technology Trends

InfraredNo license , affordable

Line of sight communication

Near end communication

Source: Frost & SullivanHigh Interest / Involvement

Low Interest / Involvement

Wireless LAN combines the advantage of affordability and bandwidth for vehicle communication requirement

Advantage Shortcomings Trend


0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Un

its

Conservative Optimistic Realistic

E-Call Implementation Pushed Ahead by a Year – Market Still in its Nascent Stages

• Currently very few services operating in the European market – BMW Assist, Volvo on Call, Fiat Blue & Me Nav and some Opel models with the On star functionality

• Member states have been asked to develop the necessary PSAP infrastructures for the smooth operation of E112 (Automotive & Telecom industry) – Germany signs the MOU for E Call only in June 2007

• The smooth implementation of E call is expected to boost applications like b call, RVD which share the same hardware platform

• Currently very few services operating in the European market – BMW Assist, Volvo on Call, Fiat Blue & Me Nav and some Opel models with the On star functionality

• Member states have been asked to develop the necessary PSAP infrastructures for the smooth operation of E112 (Automotive & Telecom industry) – Germany signs the MOU for E Call only in June 2007

• The smooth implementation of E call is expected to boost applications like b call, RVD which share the same hardware platform

30-35% Realistic

E Call Market Forecast - Conservative Vs Optimistic Scenario

€1.84 billion market in 2015!


Harman Becker

Bosch

Continental/S VDO

Delphi

Denso

Hella

Supplier ADASChassis Power train Comfort

Chassis Suppliers currently dominating Safety market – Expect non-Chassis Suppliers to Impact DAS market

Sensor Fusion

Legend: Low HighSource: Frost & Sullivan

TRW

Valeo

Visteon



Suppliers using 4 key methods to overcome barriers to market entry for Active Safety

New Technology companies use

partnership with Tier-1 suppliers to find their

way to VMs

Joint ventures with non-automotive companies for

technology capabilities

Co-development of Tier-1 / Tier-2 suppliers

with Vehicle Manufacturers

Non-electronic suppliers expanding product portfolio to

include Active safety

+

++


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Case Study - TomTom GO was launched in a market dominated by complex, expensive, built-in car

navigation systems. TomTom GO managed to position itself not just as another technical product, but as

an easy, smart and accessible consumer solution, moving to take a 56% market share

Significant Aftermarket Potential for DAS – No “Breakthrough”

Product Thus Far

Source: TomTom

Tomorrow for DAS

DIY / Aftermarket Installed

Warning / Information Systems

Want / Incentivised by insurance

Indispensable for safe driving


HUD

TPMS Park Assist

LDW

Systems Already in Market


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List of Clients who invested in this VOC Multi-Client Study on Safety

• Frost & Sullivan developed this study to enable manufacturers and suppliers to better understand the

expectation of customers, their desirability for safety and willingness to pay.

• The quality of the methodology is emphasised by 6 OEMs and 4 Tier 1 suppliers sponsoring the

study.

• List of clients for this study -

http://images.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.british-car-auctions.co.uk/images/Custlogo_Nissan.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.british-car-auctions.co.uk/main.asp%3Fpage%3D1380&h=208&w=239&sz=26&tbnid=cwBgYEdAd0IJ:&tbnh=90&tbnw=104&hl=en&start=3&prev=/images%3Fq

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http://www.valeo.com/automotive-supplier/Jahia/pid/2

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Q.10 How important are the following to you when you consider a package of safety features for your vehicle?

8%

17%

9%

8%

12%

30%

9%

37%

46%

41%

37%

43%

39%

34%

13%

18%

21%

17%

21%

16%

20%

30%

19%

28%

30%

23%

14%

33%

13%

1%

2%

8%

1%

1%

4%

Features that help maintaincorrect speed in driving zone

Features that enhance brakingunder different conditions

Features that warn or informdriver of potential risks

Features that help maintain safedistance b/w vehicles

Features that aid driver vision

Features that protect occupantsin collision

Features that relay for assistanceafter collision

Will not purchase vehicle if absent Will purchase vehicle if standard Will likely purchase as option

Nice to have Don't want

Across Europe, ‘traditional’ occupant protection and braking technologies are preferred over newer active technologies.

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Source : Information from Consumer research study done with 1,635 respondents



Q.12e If you are making a decision to buy a new car, which safety features would you include?

6%

5%

5%

6%

41%

35%

34%

33%

24%

19%

18%

20%

27%

32%

36%

38%

2%

9%

7%

3%

Blind Spot Detection(BSD)

Lane ChangeAssistant (LCA)

Collision WarningSystem (CWS)

Night Vision System(NVS)

Features That Aid Driver Vision

Blind Spot Detection (BSD)

Lane Change Assistant (LCA)

Collision Warning System (CWS)

Night Vision System (NVS)

Will not purchase vehicle if absent Will purchase vehicle if standard Will likely purchase as option

Nice to have Don't want

14%

10%

11%

16%

42%

41%

39%

39%

17%

17%

18%

19%

25%

26%

28%

24%

2%

6%

4%

2%




Relative Importance of Safety Attributes – EUROPE

Don’t Want It

Nice to Have

Likely Purchase Likely Purchase as an Optionas an Option

Will PurchaseWill PurchaseVehicle if StandardVehicle if Standard

Will Not BuyVehicle if Absent

Correct Speed

Enhance Braking

Warn of RisksKeep Distance

Aid Driver Vision

Protect : Collision

SOS : Collision

Providing protection to passengers in a collision, and the enhancement of braking, are the attributes most expected to be standard. Vehicles with these features will be considered for purchase.

Providing protection to passengers in a collision, and the enhancement of braking, are the attributes most expected to be standard. Vehicles with these features will be considered for purchase.

* These are based on the mean scores of the importance ratings for each attribute.

On average, speed correction, keeping distance, and summoning for emergency assistance (SOS) after a collision, are the attributes most considered for purchase as an option, and least expected to be standard.

On average, speed correction, keeping distance, and summoning for emergency assistance (SOS) after a collision, are the attributes most considered for purchase as an option, and least expected to be standard.

http://images.google.ca/imgres?imgurl=http://www.seriouswheels.com/pics-2005/2005-Touareg-W12-Speedometer-1024x768.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.seriouswheels.com/2005/2005-VW-Touareg-W12-Sport-Speedometer-1024x768.htm&h=768&w=1024&sz=156&tbnid=Jo5ZEJwLTu0J:&tbnh=112&tbnw=149&hl=en&start=5&prev=/images%3Fq%3Dspeedometer%26hl%3Den%26lr%3D%26sa%3DG

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Pricing remains a key barrier preventing the wider

uptake of many DAS features. Requires brave decisions.

Upgrading parking sensors to Automatic Parking units offers

significant growth opportunities to suppliers

Success of DAS features will be significantly

influenced by quality of HMI

Threat of new dimension to competition – Non-Chassis suppliers and aftermarket

potential for DAS!

BSD and LDW features present stronger market

growth opportunities than ACC

Consumers in Europe willing to pay for active safety systems, however not ready for autonomous driving – yet!!

Ke

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Date post:	13-Sep-2014
Category:	Automotive
View:	2,307 times
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