Fsa in Risk Adjusted Schedules Feb-2013

7/28/2019 Fsa in Risk Adjusted Schedules Feb-2013

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Forensic ScheduleAnalysis on Risk

Adjusted Schedules

John C. Livengood, Esq., AIA

Patrick M. Kelly, PE, PSP

Introductions John C. Livengood, Esq., AIA, CFCC, PSP

Associate Vice President

ARCADIS U.S., Inc.

Biography

Mr. Livengood is a registered architect with more

than 35 years of experience in architectural design,

project management, design analysis, and

document preparation. He is also an attorney

experienced in construction litigation, government

contracts, international contracts and arbitration, as

well as schedule delay and claims on a variety oflarge and small projects. He has served as an

expert witness and testified on scheduling,

damages, and causation issues numerous times.

Mr. Livengood has written numerous articles on

schedule delay and claims issues.


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Introductions Patrick M. Kelly, PE, PSPSenior Claims Analyst

ARCADIS U.S., Inc.

Biography

Mr. Kelly has m ore than 15 years of construction

management, government contracts and consulting

experience in the private and public sectors. He

has been engaged by both the owner and

contractor on Federal, State and Municipal levels

and specializes in transportation, government

facilities and critical structures assignments. He

has provided forensic schedule analysis and

litigation support on construction methodology, cost

analysis, and delay/disruption issues, and has

written several articles on scheduling and delay

analysis .

Introduction


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Variability of the Critical PathVariability of the Critical Path

The Critical Path, the longest continuous chain ofactivities which establishes the minimum overallproject duration for a project is identified through thedevelopment of a Critical Path Method schedule.

Schedule must have: Sufficient level of detail that includes full scope of work

Logic that accurately describes the planned order of thework

Durations that are calculated with respect to the plannedlevel of resources to be applied to that scope of work

This is the Critical Path, and a slippage or delay incompletion of any activity along that path will extendfinal completion correspondingly.

The Critical Path, the longest continuous chain ofactivities which establishes the minimum overallproject duration for a project is identified through thedevelopment of a Critical Path Method schedule.

Schedule must have: Sufficient level of detail that includes full scope of work

Logic that accurately describes the planned order of thework

Durations that are calculated with respect to the plannedlevel of resources to be applied to that scope of work

This is the Critical Path, and a slippage or delay incompletion of any activity along that path will extendfinal completion correspondingly.

6


The Construction Industry knows that the

Critical Path of a project is not static, and

will likely not remain on the exact path or

give the same predicted completion date

determined by the initial CPM calculations.

Knowing this, many are turning to

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) to try toidentify all the likely delays to project

completion, and all the likely Critical Paths.

The Construction Industry knows that the

Critical Path of a project is not static, and

will likely not remain on the exact path or

give the same predicted completion date

determined by the initial CPM calculations.

Knowing this, many are turning to

Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) to try toidentify all the likely delays to project

completion, and all the likely Critical Paths.


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Definition of QRADefinition of QRA

Quantitative Risk Analysis:

Risk analysis is used to estimate a numerical

value (usually probabilistic) on risk outcomes

wherein risk probabilities of occurrence and

impact values are used directly rather than

expressing the severity narratively or by

ranking as in qualitative methods.

Quantitative Risk Analysis:

Risk analysis is used to estimate a numerical

value (usually probabilistic) on risk outcomes

wherein risk probabilities of occurrence and

impact values are used directly rather than

expressing the severity narratively or by

ranking as in qualitative methods.

8

Purpose of QRAPurpose of QRA Assessing the potential

variability in projectduration (in individualactivities, various sub-networks, or the overallcompletion milestone)resulting from identifiedproject risks.

Assessing how risks,including threats andopportunities, in theproject schedule mayinfluence projecteconomics.

Assessing the potentialvariability in projectduration (in individualactivities, various sub-networks, or the overallcompletion milestone)resulting from identifiedproject risks.

Assessing how risks,including threats andopportunities, in theproject schedule mayinfluence projecteconomics.

Understanding whichpaths in the schedulehave the highestprobability ofinfluencing theschedule completion orkey milestones.

Understanding whichrisks have the mostinfluence on overallschedule variability.

Understanding whichpaths in the schedulehave the highestprobability ofinfluencing theschedule completion orkey milestones.

Understanding whichrisks have the mostinfluence on overallschedule variability.


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Definition of Monte Carlo

Analysis


Analysis

Monte Carlo Analysis:

Methods for finding solutions to mathematical and

statistical problems by simulation. Used when the

analytic solution of the problem is either

intractable or time consuming.

Relies on a well-developed CPM schedule and

probability distributions (often the triangular

distribution) for each activity duration, based on

normal duration estimating techniques andestimates of likelihood & effects of risks identified

by the project management team.

Monte Carlo Analysis:

Methods for finding solutions to mathematical and

statistical problems by simulation. Used when the

analytic solution of the problem is either

intractable or time consuming.

Relies on a well-developed CPM schedule and

probability distributions (often the triangular

distribution) for each activity duration, based on

normal duration estimating techniques andestimates of likelihood & effects of risks identified

by the project management team.

10


Analysis


Analysis

Risks are identified by the

project management team

and tracked in a Risk

Register.

Register shows risks, likely

impacts, responsible party

for the risk, and party

responsible for mitigating the

risk.

Risks listed in register are

then associated with specific

activities within the schedule,

and relate to duration

estimates.

Risk Register could be used

after the fact to determine

responsibility and efficacy of

actions taken to mitigate risk.


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Analysis


Analysis

The triangular

distribution establishes

the optimistic, most

likely and pessimistic

durations, for a specific

activity

Estimates are based on

the analysts

understanding of the

likelihood and severity

of the risks identified

for that activity withinthe risk register.

The triangular

distribution establishes

the optimistic, most

likely and pessimistic

durations, for a specific

activity

Estimates are based on

the analysts

understanding of the

likelihood and severity

of the risks identified

for that activity withinthe risk register.

T h e e s t ab l i s h m e n t o f t h e s e p o i n t s

o f t h e t r i a n g u l ar d i s t r i b u t i o n c u r v e

i s a m a t t er o f j u d g m e n t f o r t h e s c h e d u l e r a n d t h e r i s k a n al y s t , b u t

these points have a major effect on

the Monte Carlo simulation.

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InterpretingInterpreting

ResultsResults

Considerations in QRA ProcessConsiderations in QRA ProcessCreation of an adequate CPM model for use in QRA

Good CPM Practices, including resource/cost loading

Meeting Source Validation Protocols in RP 29R-03 Forensic

Schedule Analysis

Summary vs. Detailed Model

Probabilistic and Conditional Branching

Establishing risk relationships to schedule

Good risk register, communally developed

Linking risks to specific activities

Combination of linked risks and duration

ranges

Establishing Correlations

ScheduleSchedule

ModelBuildingModelBuilding

AssociateAssociate

Risks toRisks to

ActivitiesActivities

Monte Carlo Analysis Specify simulation

results

Accounting for merge

bias

Duration cruciality vs.

schedule sensitivity


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Recommended Texts for QRARecommended Texts for QRA

David HulettDavid Hulett GAO Schedule GuideGAO Schedule Guide

14

Recommended Texts for QRARecommended Texts for QRA

AACE RP 57R-09AACE RP 57R-09 AACE RP 64R-11AACE RP 64R-11


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QRA in Forensic Schedule Analysis:

Central Questions

QRA in Forensic Schedule Analysis:

Central Questions

If the project team was using a risk-adjustedschedule series, showing multiple likelycritical paths, then what did the project teamthink was critical at the time the schedule wascreated?

What implications does the QRA processhave for identification of delays andapportionment of responsibility?

How should analysts use the informationgenerated in the QRA, with regards tomethodology selection and execution?

If the project team was using a risk-adjustedschedule series, showing multiple likelycritical paths, then what did the project teamthink was critical at the time the schedule wascreated?

What implications does the QRA processhave for identification of delays andapportionment of responsibility?

How should analysts use the informationgenerated in the QRA, with regards tomethodology selection and execution?

Overview ofForensic Schedule

Analysis


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Forensic Schedule AnalysisForensic Schedule Analysis

Construction schedules (using Critical PathMethodology) are proj ec t management tool s that, in and of themselves, d o n o t d e m o n s t r a te root c aus at ion, res pons i b i l i ty for del ay s , or ent i t l ement.

Forensic Schedule Analysis: The study of how actual events interacted in the

context of a complex CPM model for the purpose ofunderstanding the significance of a specific deviationor series of deviations from some baseline model and

their role in determining the ultimate sequence oftasks within the complex network.

Construction schedules (using Critical PathMethodology) are proj ec t management tool s that, in and of themselves, d o n o t d e m o n s t r a te root c aus at ion, res pons i b i l i ty for del ay s , or ent i t l ement.

Forensic Schedule Analysis: The study of how actual events interacted in the

context of a complex CPM model for the purpose ofunderstanding the significance of a specific deviationor series of deviations from some baseline model and

their role in determining the ultimate sequence oftasks within the complex network.

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Two Major Phyla of

FSA Methodologies

Two Major Phyla of

FSA Methodologies

Observational MethodsObservational Methods

Examine existing

schedules; compare one

to another; make minimal

changes; perform

analysis of events using

existing schedules.

Examine existing

schedules; compare one

to another; make minimal

changes; perform

analysis of events using

existing schedules.

Modeled MethodsModeled Methods

Insert/extract activities

representing events

to/from network; compare

calculated results before

& after modeling;

determine delays &

impacts.

Insert/extract activities

representing events

to/from network; compare

calculated results before

& after modeling;

determine delays &

impacts.


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Forensic Schedule Analysis

Methodologies


Methodologies

Gross

Periodic

Static

Logic

Contemporaneous

As-Is

Bifurcated

Contemporaneous

Recreated /

Modified

Dynamic

Logic

Single

Base

Multiple

Base

Additive

Model

SingleSimulation

Multiple

Simulation

Subtractive

Model

Modeled

Observational

As-Planned vs. As-Built


Contemporaneous Period Analysis (W indows)

Bifurcated CPA

Recreated CPA

Impacted As-Planned

Retrospective TIA

Collapsed As-Built (Single)

Collapsed As-Built (Multiple)

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Methodology SelectionMethodology Selection

Choosing a

methodology is a

process that must

consider and balance

a variety of selection

factors, based on

these priorities.

Choosing a

methodology is a

process that must

consider and balance

a variety of selection

factors, based on

these priorities.

Facts of the Case

Contract documents

Issues to be claimed

Legal jurisdiction

Forum for resolution

1st

Technical Considerations

Quality of source data

Complexity of the dispute

Timing of analysis

Expertise of analyst

2nd

Commercial Considerations

Size of the dispute

Budget allowed

Time allowed

3rd


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Methodology SelectionMethodology Selection

An analysts selection of a methodology is

based (at least in part) on the quality of the

existing schedules, and how they were

used on the project.

If the project schedules were used to plan

and execute the project, it is advisable to

use those schedules in the analysis.

The schedules would have influenced thecontemporaneous understanding of criticality.

An analysts selection of a methodology is

based (at least in part) on the quality of the

existing schedules, and how they were

used on the project.

If the project schedules were used to plan

and execute the project, it is advisable to

use those schedules in the analysis.

The schedules would have influenced thecontemporaneous understanding of criticality.

ContemporaneousUnderstanding of

Criticalityand

Variability of theCritical Path in Risk

Adjusted Schedules


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Contemporaneous

Understanding of Criticality

Contemporaneous


It is generally accepted that the best

position for a forensic schedule analyst to

have is one which includes a detailed

understanding of what the people on the

project at the time it was being built

thought was critical.

It is generally accepted that the best

position for a forensic schedule analyst to

have is one which includes a detailed

understanding of what the people on the

project at the time it was being built

thought was critical.

Important Caveat: This assumes that the contemporaneous

understanding of criticality was established through legitimate project

scheduling practices. The situation is greatly complicated when thecontemporaneous schedule series contains software manipulations that

create critical paths to order. Such schedule series are of limited

usefulness in post-completion schedule analysis.

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Contemporaneous


Contemporaneous


Wickwire:Wickwire:

Delays are best evaluated on a

chronological and cumulative

basis, taking into account the

status (and critical path[s]) of

the project at the time of the

delay in question. With this

methodology and protocol, all

parties on the project live with the

events, actions, and sins of thepast.

Delays are best evaluated on a

chronological and cumulative

basis, taking into account the

status (and critical path[s]) of

the project at the time of the

delay in question. With this

methodology and protocol, all

parties on the project live with the

events, actions, and sins of thepast.

Bruner & OConnor:Bruner & OConnor:

There very well may be more

than one critical path on a project,

and the critical path may change

during the life of a project.

While every construction event

can eventually become

"critical by having its cushion

or float time used up, this is not

anticipated in the initialscheduling.

There very well may be more

than one critical path on a project,

and the critical path may change

during the life of a project.

While every construction event

can eventually become

"critical by having its cushion

or float time used up, this is not

anticipated in the initialscheduling.

Q RA is a process t hat at t empt s t o qu ant i f y, using t he ini t ial schedule (and

possib ly updat es), what event s are most l ikely t o have t heir cushion s of

f loat consumed. T he analyst must underst and how t his process inf luenced

t he cont emporaneous underst anding of cr i t ical i t y.


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Example Network (fordemonstration): Duration estimates

based on riskassessment areapplied to eachactivity.

Monte Carlo analysisis performed (usingPalisades @Risksoftware).

5000 iterations ofdurations (within thedistribution curve)develop the riskoutputs.

Example Network (fordemonstration): Duration estimates

based on riskassessment areapplied to eachactivity.

Monte Carlo analysisis performed (usingPalisades @Risksoftware).

5000 iterations ofdurations (within thedistribution curve)develop the riskoutputs.

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CPM Network Calculation OnlyCPM Network Calculation Only

Path 1

Path 2

Non-Critical Activity

CriticalActivity

Float Bar

Pat h 1 dr ives t he Cr i t ical Path in t he ini t ial

schedu le, and Pat h 2 ( t hrough T ask Y)

show s 12 days of T ot al Float

( roughly 7% of project durat ion).

Task Y


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Calculations using

Monte Carlo Analysis

Calculations using

Monte Carlo Analysis

Non-Critical Activity

CriticalActivity

Float BarBased on durat ion est im at es, c lear ly t here is

som e l ikel ihood t hat Pat h 2 wi l l dr ive t he Cr i t ical

Pat h. Sof t ware helps qu ant i f y t hat l ikel ihood.

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Range of Likely Project

Durations

Range of Likely Project

Durations

Probability

distribution of project

duration:

50% probability that

the project will finish

on time (182 days) as

shown by CPM alone.


the project will finish in

195 days.

Probability

distribution of project

duration:


the project will finish

on time (182 days) as

shown by CPM alone.


the project will finish in

195 days.

Distribution

Probability

CumulativeFrequency

Projects duration is a range rather

than a defini te number.

H o w s h o u l d t h a t b e h a n d l ed i n t h e

Firm Fixed Price Contract?


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Potential Criticality of Path 2Potential Criticality of Path 2

Task Y Total Float:


Path 2 will drive the

Critical Path.


Path 2 will have float

of 15 days.

Task Y Total Float:


Path 2 will drive the

Critical Path.


Path 2 will have float

of 15 days.

Distribution

Probability

CumulativeFrequency

D i d t h i s i n f l u e n c e t h e

c o n t e m p o r a n e o u s u n d e r s t a n d i n g

of cr i t ical i ty?

Did the project management team

a c t o n t h i s i n f o r m a t i o n ?

30


Non-Risk AdjustedNon-Risk Adjusted

A single, driving critical

path, usually with a

single causal activity.

Possible near-critical

paths that may become

the critical path in the

future.

A single, driving critical

path, usually with a

single causal activity.

Possible near-critical

paths that may become

the critical path in the

future.

Risk AdjustedRisk Adjusted

Multiple critical paths with

different likelihoods of

driving the predicted

completion date.

Quantitatively shows the

reality of construction

projects.

Multiple critical paths with

different likelihoods of

driving the predicted

completion date.

Quantitatively shows the

reality of construction

projects.

What di d the proj ec t m anagement team do

w i t h t h i s i n f o r m a ti o n ?


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What did the project management

team do with this information?

What did the project management

team do with this information?

Central Question:

If the project team was using a risk-adjusted scheduleseries, with its identification of the likelihood of variouslogic paths as possibly driving the longest path throughthe project rather than the simpler calculation of a singlezero-float path through the static network, then what didthe project team think was critical at the time?

Whether or not the QRA process was relevant tothe project management teams actions is likely tobe revealed during document research.

If it did (as it should have why else do a QRA?)then the analyst must account for this fact in thedelay analysis.

Central Question:

If the project team was using a risk-adjusted scheduleseries, with its identification of the likelihood of variouslogic paths as possibly driving the longest path throughthe project rather than the simpler calculation of a singlezero-float path through the static network, then what didthe project team think was critical at the time?

Whether or not the QRA process was relevant tothe project management teams actions is likely tobe revealed during document research.

If it did (as it should have why else do a QRA?)then the analyst must account for this fact in thedelay analysis.

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Risk-Adjusted Schedules:

Questions for the Forensic Analyst

Risk-Adjusted Schedules:

Questions for the Forensic Analyst

How was the schedule risk-adjusted?

What was the Quality of the Risk

Adjustment?

Did the Risk Adjusted Schedule Influence

the Contemporaneous Understanding of

Criticality?

How was the schedule risk-adjusted?


Adjustment?



Criticality?


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First QuestionFirst Question

How was the schedule risk adjusted? Summary Schedule QRA

More common.

Often performed by the owner during planning, and notused by contractor.

Summary schedule doesnt rise to the level of detailnecessary to show means and methods.

Some argue more useful overall, but likely to result in atime (or cost) contingency rather than influencingthoughts on criticality.

Summary Schedule QRA may still provide insightinto the project; however, it is not particularlyrelevant to FSA methodology selection.

How was the schedule risk adjusted? Summary Schedule QRA

More common.

Often performed by the owner during planning, and notused by contractor.

Summary schedule doesnt rise to the level of detailnecessary to show means and methods.

Some argue more useful overall, but likely to result in atime (or cost) contingency rather than influencingthoughts on criticality.

Summary Schedule QRA may still provide insightinto the project; however, it is not particularlyrelevant to FSA methodology selection.

34

First QuestionFirst Question

How was the schedule risk adjusted?

Detailed Schedule QRA

Often criticized as overly difficult or infeasible.

Means and methods are represented by the level

of detail.

More likely to influence thoughts on criticality.

Assuming Detail Schedule, adjusted through

QRA, was then used to plan and implementthe project, how well was the QRA

performed?

How was the schedule risk adjusted?

Detailed Schedule QRA

Often criticized as overly difficult or infeasible.

Means and methods are represented by the level

of detail.

More likely to influence thoughts on criticality.

Assuming Detail Schedule, adjusted through

QRA, was then used to plan and implementthe project, how well was the QRA

performed?


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Second QuestionSecond Question


Adjustment?

Quality of QRA is its own Source Validation

Protocol.

RP 64R-11s Minimum Conditions of

Satisfaction are relevant.


Adjustment?

Quality of QRA is its own Source Validation

Protocol.

RP 64R-11s Minimum Conditions of

Satisfaction are relevant.

36

Minimum Conditions of

Satisfaction

Minimum Conditions of

Satisfaction A development of scope of work, execution plan,

cost estimate, and schedule that are consistentwith each other;

A quality schedule: good activities, appropriatelevel of detail, logic, cost loaded, resource loaded;

Agreement on the schedule and/or approval of theschedule;

A comprehensive risk register, communallydeveloped, that shows impacts of risks and has a

mitigation plan; and An understanding of the systemic risks, if not

captured in the risk register, which may impact theprojects performance, including schedulecompletion.

A development of scope of work, execution plan,cost estimate, and schedule that are consistentwith each other;

A quality schedule: good activities, appropriatelevel of detail, logic, cost loaded, resource loaded;

Agreement on the schedule and/or approval of theschedule;

A comprehensive risk register, communallydeveloped, that shows impacts of risks and has a

mitigation plan; and An understanding of the systemic risks, if not

captured in the risk register, which may impact theprojects performance, including schedulecompletion.


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Second QuestionSecond Question


Adjustment?

Potential questions to ask:

What was the basis of estimation for the three-point

estimates? Did they come from some identifiable

source or quantifiable means? Were the line-by-line

estimates performed in light of accurate estimates of

quantity/resource levels/production rates?

What was the basis of choice of a distribution curve, if

not a triangular distribution?

Were issues related to merge bias taken into account?

Were risks properly correlated?


Adjustment?

Potential questions to ask:

What was the basis of estimation for the three-point

estimates? Did they come from some identifiable

source or quantifiable means? Were the line-by-line

estimates performed in light of accurate estimates of

quantity/resource levels/production rates?

What was the basis of choice of a distribution curve, if

not a triangular distribution?

Were issues related to merge bias taken into account?

Were risks properly correlated?

38

Third QuestionThird Question



Criticality?

Again, the answer to this question is in the

project documents.

If the QRA was performed and ignored, its

value to the analyst is diminished. Was QRA used in update schedules?

Recovery schedules?



Criticality?

Again, the answer to this question is in the

project documents.

If the QRA was performed and ignored, its

value to the analyst is diminished. Was QRA used in update schedules?

Recovery schedules?


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Additional Bases ofSelection of

Methodology

40

Methodology SelectionMethodology SelectionMethodology SelectionMethodology Selection

As a supplement to

the first and second

level factors for

consideration in

methodology

selection, the analyst

must also account for

the QRA and the risk-

adjusted schedules.

As a supplement to

the first and second

level factors for

consideration in

methodology

selection, the analyst

must also account for

the QRA and the risk-

adjusted schedules.

Facts of the Case

Contract documents

Issues to be claimed

Legal jurisdiction

Forum for resolution

1st

Technical Considerations

Quality of source data

Complexity of the dispute

Timing of analysis

Expertise of analyst

2nd

Commercial Considerations

Size of the dispute

Budget allowed

Time allowed

3rd


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Methodologies


Methodologies

Gross

Periodic

Static

Logic

Contemporaneous

As-Is

Bifurcated

Contemporaneous

Recreated /

Modified

Dynamic

Logic

Single

Base

Multiple

Base

Additive

Model

SingleSimulation

Multiple

Simulation

Subtractive

Model

Modeled

Observational



Contemporaneous Period Analysis (W indows)

Bifurcated CPA

Recreated CPA

Impacted As-Planned

Retrospective TIA

Collapsed As-Built (Single)

Collapsed As-Built (Multiple)

QRA performed but schedules

cant be used. QRA should be

used in identifying the as-built

critical path.

QRA is the most useful to

Windows. Use information to

track CPs and show how

means & methods were altered

to react to QRA.

Not useful in performance, but

could help justify use of IAP.

No effect on this method.

No effect on these methods,

because they do not rely on

contemporaneous

understanding of criticality.

42

ConclusionConclusion

Contemporaneous Period Analyses

(observational/ dynamic logic) uses the

existing schedule series which strongly

rely on contemporaneous understanding

of criticality.

Existence of a QRA should recommend a CPA

(or BCPA) analysis as a method, assumingother requirements are met.

Factoring in the QRA is essential.

Contemporaneous Period Analyses

(observational/ dynamic logic) uses the

existing schedule series which strongly

rely on contemporaneous understanding

of criticality.

Existence of a QRA should recommend a CPA

(or BCPA) analysis as a method, assumingother requirements are met.

Factoring in the QRA is essential.


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ConclusionConclusion

The As-Planned vs. As-Built family(observational/static logic) relies in part oncontemporaneous understanding ofcriticality for definition of the as-plannedcritical path.

Regardless of selected methodology, theperformance of the QRA will likely havegenerated important documentation

(intentions, means and methods, etc.) thatshould be nonetheless considered byanalysts.

The As-Planned vs. As-Built family(observational/static logic) relies in part oncontemporaneous understanding ofcriticality for definition of the as-plannedcritical path.

Regardless of selected methodology, theperformance of the QRA will likely havegenerated important documentation

(intentions, means and methods, etc.) thatshould be nonetheless considered byanalysts.

Forensic ScheduleForensic ScheduleAnalysis on RiskAnalysis on RiskAdjusted SchedulesAdjusted Schedules

Questions?

Patrick M. Kelly, PE, PSP

Construction Claims Services

ARCADIS U.S., [email protected]

(O) 410-381-1990 x12 (M) 757-217-6820

John C. Livengood Esq., AIA, CFCC, PSP

Construction Claims Services

ARCADIS U.S., [email protected]

(O) 410-381-1990 x31 (M) 202-669-1360

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Fsa in Risk Adjusted Schedules Feb-2013

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