F/SUPT HERBERT B CEZARD i r e c t o r

Fire National Training Institute (FNTI)

It is the premeditated, threatened, actual use of violence, force, or by any other means of destruction perpetrated against person/s, property/ies, or the environment. 

It is committed by any person or group of persons, whether natural or juridical, who, with intent to create or sow danger, panic, fear or chaos to the general public or a group of persons or particular person, or to coerce or intimidate the government to do or to abstain from doing an act.

Threatening or causing death or serious bodily harm (on person or persons);

Threatening or causing serious risk to health or safely of (the public or any segment of the public;

Threatening or causing substantial damage or wanton destruction or resorting to arson on critical infrastructure or property, public or private;

Threatening or causing serious interference with or serious disruption of an essential service, facility or system, whether public or private, other than a result of lawful advocacy, protest, dissent or stoppage of work;

Hijacking or threatening to hijack any kind of aircraft, electric or railroad train, locomotive, passenger bus or oilier means of mass transportation, or public conveyance, or piracy of ship or sea vessel;

Taking or threatening to kidnap or deprive any person of his/her liberty;

Assassinating or threatening to assassinate, or kidnapping or threatening to kidnap the President or the Vice President of the Philippines, the President of the Senate, the Speaker of the Mouse of Representatives or the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court;

Killing or violently attacking an internationally protected person or depriving the liberty of such person in violation of the Convention on the Protection and Punishment of Crimes Against Internationally Protected Persons, including Diplomatic Agents, and oilier international agreements;

Attacking or threatening to attack the cyberspace, by destroying the actual machinery of the information and communication infrastructure, disrupting the information technology underlying the internet, government or private networks or systems, or committing any unlawful act against networks, servers, computers or other information and communication systems;

Wilfully destroying the natural resources in land, water and air, such as    forests or marine and mineral resources, or intentionally causing oil or toxic spillages, or other similar acts of destruction against the environment that threatens ecological security;

Unlawfully manufacturing, processing, selling, acquiring, possessing, using, diverting, supplying or transporting chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear agents, or equipment and instruments used in their production, distribution, release or spread that would endanger directly or indirectly the safety of one or more individuals, or to cause mass destruction or great damage to property; or

Unlawfully manufacturing, selling, acquiring, supplying, disposing, using or possessing explosives, bombs, grenades, projectiles, devices or other lethal weapons, or substances or machinery used or intended to be used for the manufacture of explosives in furtherance of, or incident to, or in connection with an act of terrorism defined herein.

BALI BALI BOMBING BOMBING October October

20022002

WORLD TRADE WORLD TRADE CENTER CENTER

September 2001September 2001

Bus exploded into flamesat least 3 persons killed

Blast hit outside Gaisano Mall

at least 3 persons killed

2005 Valentine’s Day Bombings “Mini-9/11 in the Philippines”“Mini-9/11 in the Philippines”

Bomb detonatedat a bus terminal1 person killed

SUPERFERRY14 SUPERFERRY14 BOMBINGBOMBING

February 2004February 2004“the WORLD's fourth deadliest terrorist strike since September 11, 2001,

and ASIA's worst

since the Bali bombings of October 2002”.

-TIME MAGAZINE AUGUST 2004

LIST OF BOMBING ACTIVITIESTHAT TRANSPIRED IN 2006

July 11, 2006Mumbai, Indiaeight coordinated explosions during the evening rush hour190+ killed and hundreds injured.

July 10, 2006Sao Paulo, Brazilbomb Injures exploded inside a subway train More than 10 injured

July 5, 2006 Yakhroma, Russia bomb exploded at a Muslim prayer houseno casualties reported

June 26, 2006Suicide Attack in Colombo, Sri Lanka A top Sri Lankan general was killed along with several others

June 24, 2006Bangkok, Thailandtwo bombs exploded near the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party headquarters

June 23, 2006Sharif Aguak, Mindanaobomb exploded near a public market5+ people killed and 10 injured

June 20, 2006an explosion that occurred on a Makati street One injured

June 13, 2006pillbox bomb exploded inside Camp Bagong Diwano reports of injuries a SWAT van sustained damage

June 11, 2006Lipa, Batangasgrenade inside a bag exploded outside of a marketat least nine people injured

June 11, 2006Commonwealth Avenue, Quezon Cityhomemade bomb exploded near a parked bus no reports of injuries; bus sustained significant damage

June 11, 2006Plaza Lawton, Manila explosion hit a police station

June 9, 2006 Pampangagrenade attack on the residence of a PGMA supporter

June 6, 2006Makati Cityimprovised explosive device detonated outside the Great Pacific Life Bldgno reports of injuries

March 29, 2006 Digos City, Davao del Surbomb exploded inside a busat least 17 people were injuredthe bus and three nearby vehicles sustained damages

March 27, 2006a bomb exploded in Jolo, Sulu9 people killed, 20 others injured

February 20, 2006an explosion occurred inside the gates of Malacañang, Manilano reports of damage or injuries

February 18, 2006Jolo, Sulua bomb exploded at a karaoke bar located several meters from an army base where US soldiers are participating in joint exercises with the AFP1 person killed; 28 others injured

January 30, 2006 Ermita, Manila a small improvised explosive device detonated in front of the Court of Appeals Bldgno reports of damage or injuries

Types of Threats

Any inimical act and/or unwanted event, which may bring about adverse results.

NATURAL

MANMADE

TECHNOLOGICAL

TyphoonVolcanic EruptionEarthquakeFlood ErosionTERRORISMSabotageTechnical or Financial FraudCoup d’ Etat/RebellionLabor StrikeWarPlant BreakdownBreakdown or Failure of Protective DevicesEnvironmental Hazards

Nation

Person

Organization

Infrastructures

Community

Key Assets

Operations

Subjects of Threats

Transport Terminals

Public Conveyances

Telecom Facility

Power Facilities

Water Supply Facilities

Government Buildings

Movie Houses & Malls

Business Facilities

Medical/Health Facilities

Emergency Service Facilities

Road Infrastructures

Religious Institutions

Educational Institutions

Markets

Areas of Threats

A condition used to describe the openness or weakness of a subject of a threat.

The condition of vulnerability is directly influenced by the strength or weaknesses of a security or protective program.

The chance that a given threat will occur and bring about adverse consequences.

Importance of a subject of a threat as defined by its nature.

Importance is directed towards:a. The subject of a threat itselfb. Community and citizenryc. Any or all aspects of National Security

Tangible and intangible outcome or consequence of a threat occurrence, such as loss, injury, disadvantage or gain.

The product of threat probability and the sum of impact of a threat occurrence that can be inflicted against a target of an identified threat.

The systematic and logical study of a given threat, its likelihood of occurrence and the severity of its impact, purposely for the formulation and implementation of an effective and efficient security program to detect, control or prevent losses.

the probability that an undesirable event or threat may actually take place and inflict adverse consequences, including the failure to achieve goals and objectives.

One is at RISK when:

there is a threat

the threat is probable to occur

consequences if threat occurs

1ST STEP

2ND STEP

3RD STEP

4TH STEP

The 1st Step of Risk Analysis

involves the identification and profiling of a threat.

THREAT

Helps in designing an

effective and efficient security or protective program.

Who offers the threat?

Why the threat?

Objectives of the source of

threat?

Likely specific targets?

Modus Operandi?

Internal & External EnvironmentInternal & External Environment

Criticality or Nature of the Subject of Criticality or Nature of the Subject of Threat Threat

Historical Incidents/EventsHistorical Incidents/Events

are specific conditions that identify a threat. Also, they directly or indirectly influence the potential of a threat to exist or be present.

Nature & Criticality of Nature & Criticality of FacilityFacility

Operational Significance

Financial or Business Significance

Security Classification

Work or Input-Output processes and sensitive areas

Critical infrastructures and key assets (plus costs)

Financial Status and Financial Operations

Implications to national security, economy, politics, etc.

EXTERNAL INTERNAL

EnvironmentEnvironment

Politico-socio-economic situations

Geography, topography, etc

Demography Presence of PNP, AFP

and Emergency Response Agencies and their

capabilities Presence of sources of

threats in the area Global Situation

Structural Design Landscaping Facility Occupants Facility Contents Security Personnel &

their capabilities Presence of sources of

threats inside the facility

Organization

Internal Incidents

External Incidents

Security DeptOther Depts

GovernmentPrivate

Historical Event

• Near-miss events

• Actual events

Historical EventHistorical Event

RATING

LEVEL

1 – 2 Very Low

3 – 4 Low

5 – 6 Medium

7 – 8 High

9 – 10 Very High

Example: RATING

1.

The facility provides electricity in entire Luzon.

- 7

2.

The facility is located in an NPA-infested area.

- 9

3.

The facility was attacked by NPA’s in 2003. - 8

Average Threat Potential = 8

.

The 2nd Step of Risk Analysis

involves the identification and measurement of the weaknesses of the existing security or protective program of a subject of a threat, as against the strength of the same security or protective program.

Allows risk owners to know the strength of their existing Security Program, what needs to be corrected and what more are necessary to be put in place in defense against an identified threat.

Vulnerability directly influences the probability of a threat to actually take place.

WEAK SECURITYWEAK SECURITY Increases probability of threat occurrence

STRONG SECURITYSTRONG SECURITY Reduces probability of threat occurrence

absence of security or protective measuresabsence of security or protective measures

inadequacy of security or protective inadequacy of security or protective measures measures

defective security or protective measuresdefective security or protective measures

are specific security conditions that weakens or strengthens the security/protective program of a target of threat.

RATING

LEVEL

1 – 2 Very Low

3 – 4 Low

5 – 6 Medium

7 – 8 High

9 – 10 Very HighExample: RATING

1.

No security guards are employed. - 7

2.

Perimeter fence is below standard of 8 feet. - 9

3.

Personnel Control Policy is not strictly enforced.

- 8

Average Vulnerability = 8

to empirically estimate the vulnerability of a target of threat.

The 3rd Step of Risk Analysis

The probability that an identified threat is going to actually take place is measured using empirical parameters and tool.

Threat Factors (Threat Threat Factors (Threat Potential) Potential)

Vulnerability FactorsVulnerability Factors

specific conditions that influence the probable occurrence of an identified threat.

PROBABILITY =

Average Rated Threat Factors

XAverage Rated Vulnerability

Factors

100

VULNERABILITY RATING

1.

Facility does not have fence

- 9

2.

Facility does not have guards

- 7

AVERAGE = 8PROBABILITY =

7.5 X 8.0

100

PROBABILITY = 0.60 or 60%

THREAT FACTORS RATING

1.

Facility located in NPA area

- 7

2.

Facility already attacked once

- 8

AVERAGE = 7.5

EXAMPLE: Probability of Terrorist Attack to occur

PROBABILITY

LEVEL DESCRIPTION

0.00 ImprobableGiven no changes, threat will not occur.

0.01 - 0.20 Very LowLeast chance of occurrence.

0.21 - 0.40 LowOccurrence is less likely.

0.41 - 0.60 ModerateThere is 50:50 chance of occurrence.

0.61 - 0.80 HighOccurrence is much greater.

0.81 - 1.00Virtually Certain

Given no changes, threat will certainly occur.

The 4th Step of Risk Analysis

The possible impact of a threat occurrence and their severity are identified and measured.

Failure to achieve organizational goals & objectivesLoss of livesDestruction or loss of infrastructures & key assetsDestruction, disruption or loss of systems/operationsIncome lossesLoss of information and competitive edgeLoss of image, goodwill and reputationAdverse implications to all or any aspects of National Security

GENERAL IMPACT

Geographic dispersion of potential damages

Temporal extension of potential damages

Requirements of restoring the situation to the state before the damages occurred (i.e., reforestation and detoxification of water)

Violation of individual, social or cultural interests and values generating social conflicts and psychological reactions from those who feel inflicted by the risk consequences systems/operations

OTHER IMPACTS THAT NEEDTO BE CONSIDERED

Quantitative

Lives lost & CostDowntime period & costLost incomeReplacement CostRestoration CostCost of property destroyed

Qualitative

ReputationGoodwillPatronage lossMorale lossEffects to others

PUTTING VALUE TO IMPACT

IMPACT SEVERITY = Average

(Quantitative +Qualitative) X Probabilit

y

SAMPLE CASE

QUANTITATIVE RATING

1.Building destruction worth P10.0M

- 5

2. Income loss/day equal to P2.0M - 4

3. Death & injuries - 5

QUALITATIVE

1. Stoppage of services - 5

2. Loss of reputation/image - 4

3. Patronage loss - 5

AVERAGE IMPACT/LOSS RATING = 4.70

PROBABILITY = 0.60

IMPACT SEVERITY =

(14

+14)

X 0.60

=3.0

6

RATING

LEVEL DESCRIPTION

1Improba

bleEffect is insignificant.

2 Low

Can be covered by normal contingency services. Short discontinuance of operation.

3Moderat

e

Noticeable impact on earnings.Requires attention of top management.

4Very

Serious

Major impact on balance sheet account.Requires changes in investment policy.

5 FatalProlonged discontinuance of operation.Requires re-capitalization.

Threat

TERRORISTATTACK

Threat PotentialRating

Level: HIGH

8.00

VulnerabilityRating

Level: HIGH

8.00

Impact

Level: FATAL

4.70

Impact Severity

Level: MODERATE

3.00

Threat Probability

Level: MODERATE

0.60

In a complex and rapidly changing world, the day can instantly turn from friendly to hostile in a least expected time and with serious consequence …

…thus, constantly “penetrating the

fog of the future”, and managing the dangers beyond is a vital priority for

all of us!

F SR/SUPT HERBERT B CEZARD i r e c t o r

Fire National Training Institute (FNTI)