Reproduction permitted with due © Concawe
acknowledgement
Fuels Décarbonés : Opportunités et
challenges (Concawe Low Carbon Pathways programme)
BPF – Brussels – 12 Dec. 2019
Jean-Marc Sohier – Science Director
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Agenda
01 Setting the scene
Role of Low Carbon Fuels in Transport
Low Carbon Fuels : examples and projects
02
03
Refinery 2050 : opportunities and challenges04
05 Main Takeaways
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To conduct research to provide impartial scientific information,
in order to:
• scientific understanding
• Assist the development of technically feasible and cost
effective policies and legislation
• Allow informed decision making and cost effective
legislative compliance by Association members.
Concawe – Environmental Science for European Refining
Concawe Membership
Concawe represents 40 Member Companies ≈
100% of EU Refining
Open to companies owning refining capacity in the EU
Concawe mission
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Setting the scene01
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A Clean Planet for all (DG CLIMA)Europe ambition to become the first “Zero Emission” continent.
Eight scenarios to achieve GHG emissions reductions between 80% and 100% by 2050 vs 1990) –
Alternative fuels recognized as key players
80% reduction
-100%
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Energy storage – Limitations of batteriesLiquid and gaseous fuels will remain needed
Sourc
e:
Concaw
e o
wn a
ssess
ment
base
d o
n d
iffe
rent
model
data
sheets
, JEC,
Ric
ard
o d
ata
(M
ass
EV s
tudy f
or
Concaw
e)
Practical
Impractical
Aviation and energy storage – beyond the limits for batteries
(1) http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-electric-aircraft-20160830-snap-story.html
Jet fuel Electric battery
100 tons1
Boeing 787
230 tons
at take-off
2000 tons1
JET FUE
L
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The key question
How to satisfy the future need for products and fuels…
… in a low GHG intensive manner?
The triple dimension challenge for the refinery of the future
Low Carbon fuelsLow Carbon feedstocks
to chemicals
Low CO2 intensive
sites
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Role of low carbon fuels:
Focus on road transport:
Light and Heavy Duty02
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Can the low carbon fuels effectively contribute to a low CO2 economy?
1 Light Duty vehicles
Impact analysis on
Mass EV adoption and
Low Carbon Intensity Fuels Scenarios
From production (Refinery) to final use (transport)
2 Heavy Duty vehicles
Low Carbon pathways (2030/2050)
3 Marine and Aviation
(In progress)
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Mass EV vs Low Carbon Liquid fuels. Assumptions.
The two main scenarios feature significant electrification and use of low carbon fuels (biofuels and eFuels)
(*) ≈70 Mtoe/y Low Carbon fuel used in Light duty segmentSource: Ricardo (2018)
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Mass EV vs Low Carbon Liquid Fuels - CO2 emissions (LCA) & Cost
• All scenarios reduce GHG emissions and meet reduction objectives at lower overall cost than BAU.
• Total costs to the end user are similar for the High EV and Low C Fuels scenario when adjusted to maintain Net Fiscal Revenue.
• Electricity requirement is High EV scenario (550 TWh, 17,5% of 2017 generation) is double than in LCF scenario
Embedded emissions (production and disposal of vehicle/batteries) increase their
importance through the period representing 8% of the total CO2 emissions in 2015
to 25% by 2050.
Overall picture - Total Fleet (LDV) Total Parc Annual Costs to End-users (LDV)
Source: Ricardo (2018)
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… and for Heavy Duty Vehicles?
• Combustion engines represent at least 47% of the vehicle stock in 2050 • Battery and fuel cell electric trucks as well as liquid fuels from renewables are relevant to meet the different level
of ambition in all scenarios.• Significant investments and demands swift action as well as joint collaboration between fleet operators, vehicle
manufacturers, technology suppliers, energy providers and politicians to define the suitable framework to ensure that the transition happen in the most efficient manner.
Source: FEV (2019)
Different pathways to achieve significant GHG savings by 2050
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Low Carbon Fuels : examples and
projects03
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What are liquid Low Carbon Fuels?
LCF are sustainable liquid fuels able to
reduce CO2 emissions during its production
and use compared to conventional
gasoline/diesel.
Key aspects:
• Storing energy in a really efficient way (e.g.
Gasoline x100 times vs Li-ion battery)
• Compatibility with existing fleet (or with minor
modifications)
• Minimum changes in existing infrastructure
GHG
savings up
to 90%
GHG savings depending on:
• The feedstock
• The production process
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Low Carbon fuels: An idea from the past…
Late 1800s…
First car designed to run on ethanol
(from gasification of wood)
… 1925…
… not from “anything” but almost…
Source: IFPEN
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… evolving towards 2020+To biomass wasteFrom 1G e-fuels
Examples!
70-90%
GHG
savings!
Plastics or municipal waste
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2nd Generation Biofuels and e-fuels
Source: IFPEN
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Car Manufacturers are developing multiple pathways
Source: Audi
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The technologies are being developed….
project in Heroya (Norway)
Some examples of R&D and Innovation projects currently ongoing
4kta e-methanol
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Refinery 2050 : opportunities and
challenges04
Vision 2050: possible technologies for Low Carbon Liquid Fuels
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Multiple technologies can be deployed together to give significant reduction in carbon intensity of liquid fuels
Co
mb
ined
Car
bo
n In
ten
sity
Red
uct
ion
Increasing substitution of Petroleum with new feedstocks and components
Reduced carbon footprint of Petroleum refining
Refinery Efficiency
StandardProposedstrategy
Current first examples
Green Hydrogen
CCUSTechnology
SustainableBiofuels
Advanced Biofuels
Power-to-Liquids
Fuel Quality
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The 2050 refinery as an ENERGY HUB…
… within an INDUSTRIAL CLUSTER
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(Our) main takeaways05
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Main takeaways• The EU Commission has recently published its long-term strategy, confirming Europe's commitment to lead in global climate
action
• In road transport, multiple technologies/pathways can achieve similar GHG reduction at a comparable cost offering anopportunity to diversify solutions / reduce risk.
• The challenge for the refinery of the future has a triple dimension: CO2 reductions at the site are not enough and need to beaccompanied by technologies/feedstocks to reduce emissions in the final use (fuels & products).
• Refineries can contribute to this long-term goal internationally:
• Delivering low-carbon fuels (biofuels, efuels including H2) recognised as key players in transport sector
• Availability of large amounts of both renewable electricity and low-carbon feedstocks (including biomass) would berequired.
• The combination of different pathways may offer a way to alleviate the resource risk
• R&D in increasing resource availability and mobilization (Supply chain) & technology scale-up / efficiency improvement arekey areas to enable deployment.
• Adequate policies need to be developed to support Low Carbon Fuels development
• The assessment is not intended to be a roadmap and multiple additional pathways/feedstocks could also be integratedwithin the EU refining system
• Challenges go beyond the bio-industry / refining battery limits!!
Reproduction permitted with due © Concawe
acknowledgement
Thank You
Jean-Marc Sohier – Science Director
