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06/04/2017 Fundamental Analysis
06/04/2017
Fundamental Analysis
Major events this week (April 3 - 7)
Thursday, 06 April 2017 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
01:30 am AUD Retail Sales m/m February -0.1% 0.3% 0.4%
08:30 am GBP Manufacturing PMI March 54.2 55.1 54.5
02:00 pm USD ISM Manufacturing PMI March 57.2 57.2 57.7
TUESDAY
04:30 am AUD Cash Rate 1.50% 1.50% 1.50%
08:30 am GBP Construction PMI March 52.2 52.5 52.5
12:30 pm CAD Trade Balance February 1.0B 0.7B 0.4B
Tentative NZD GDT Price Index 1.6% 1.7%
WEDNESDAY
08:30 am GBP Services PMI March 55.0 53.5 53.3
12:15 pm USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change March 263K 191K 245K
THURSDAY
06:00 am EUR German Factory Orders m/m February 3.5% -7.4%
12:30 pm USD Unemployment Claims Last week 251K 258K
FRIDAY
08:30 am GBP Manufacturing Production m/m March 0.3% -0.9%
01:30 pm CAD Employment Change March 5.7K 15.3K
01:30 pm USD Non-Farm Employment Change March 176K 235K
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Key highlights of the week ended March 31
Euro zone In March, the German Business Climate Index rose more than many experts estimated. It surged to 112.3, appearing to be the highest since June 2011. Such notable change suggests that German businesses have finally adapted to the new US Administration and are not disturbed by the US President Donald Trump’s plan to levy a 35% border tax on German car manufacturers or his $375 billion bill for NATO handed to the German Chancellor Angela Merkel. United Kingdom Data released on Friday showed that the UK's current account deficit hit a five-year record low, which surprised many experts. In the Q4 of 2016, the current account advanced from -25.7 billion pounds to -12.1 billion pounds. The country’s trade balance with the rest of the world improved dramatically. United States The US Department of Commerce reported that orders for durable goods advanced 1.7% in February, following the preceding month’s upwardly revised gain of 2.3% and surpassing analysts’ expectations for a 1.1% increase. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased significantly despite experts' pessimistic forecasts. In March, it gained 8% and reached 125.6, which is the highest value since December 2000. In February, the Pending Home Sales Index spiked 5.5% and reached the highest level in almost a year and the second highest level in over a decade. Other data released on Wednesday revealed that US crude oil inventories rose 900,000 barrels last week, following the preceding week’s gain of 5 million barrels. The Commerce Department reported on Thursday the economy grew at a 2.1% annualised rate in the Q4 of 2016, compared to the previously estimated 1.9% pace. Nevertheless, for all of 2016, the economy expanded just 1.6%, the slowest pace of growth since 2011, following a 2.6% expansion in 2015. Other data released on Thursday revealed that initial jobless claims dropped 3,000 to a seasonally adjusted 258,000 in the week ending March 25, remaining below the 300,000 level for 108 consecutive weeks. Canada Statistics Canada reported that the country’s GDP advanced 0.6% in January, following the preceding month’s 0.3%. Canada’s goods-producing industries expanded for the seventh time in eight months, growing 1.1% in January. Meanwhile, the country’s service-producing industries grew 0.4%, the highest since June 2015.
Thursday, 06 April 2017 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
“The survey data indicate that UK business activity growth regained some momentum after having slipped to a five-month low in February, but the upturn fails to change the picture of an economy that slowed in the first quarter.” - Chris Williamson, IHS Markit
GBP
Impact
UK Services PMI rises to three-month high High
The PMI for the British services sector surprised many experts, who did not expect any significant change in March. According to IHS Markit, the PMI soared to 55.0 while analysts forecasted only a minor increase to 53.5. Thus, the PMI remained above the no-change value for the eighth consecutive month. This result showed that activity in the British services sector rebounded from five-month lows registered in the previous month. In March, business activity and new work creation grew at the fastest pace this year, so far. According to Markit, it was attributable to greater customers' demand and favourable economic conditions, such as the weak Pound. In fact, especially high demand on British services was recorded in the United States. The overall sentiment about business prospects among the surveyed companies remained positive. Thus, half of the respondents believed that their business activity would improve in the year-ahead. However, some companies continued to complain about the Brexit-related anxiety, which precluded investment inflows. Moreover, average prices charged by service providers increased at the highest rate since 2008, as input costs surged markedly in the recent months. In addition, experts also recorded the weakest job creation since August 2016.
Trends* Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
MAX 1.84 1.32 1.62
75% percentile 1.25 1.26 1.28
Median 1.22 1.22 1.24
25% percentile 1.20 1.20 1.18
MIN 1.07 1.03 1.02 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
05.04 open
price 05.04 close price % change
GBP/USD 1.2441 1.2484 0.34%
EUR/GBP 0.8580 0.8542 -0.44%
GBP/CAD 1.6672 1.6771 0.59%
GBP/JPY 137.76 138.20 0.32%
Thursday, 06 April 2017 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
“The labour market is tight and it will get tighter. The labour shortage might be exacerbated by immigration issues.” - Mark Zandi, Moody’s Analytics
USD
Impact
ADP reports 263,000 job gain in March; Services activity slows last month; Crude oil inventories rise unexpectedly High
US private companies created more jobs than markets expected last month, suggesting further tightening of the labour market. According to the ADP National Employment Report released on Wednesday, the US private sector added 263,000 new jobs to the economy in March, following the preceding month’s downwardly revised gain of 245,000 and surpassing analysts’ expectations for an increase of 184,000. The ADP data come ahead of the US Department of Labour’s more comprehensive report on non-farm employment due on Friday. Yesterday’s better-than-expected figures ratchet up analysts’ expectations for Friday’s numbers, who initially expected the NFP report to show a gain of 174,000 jobs. Other data released by the ISM on Wednesday revealed that US services activity slowed more than expected last month, with the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI coming in at 55.2, down from the prior month’s 57.6, while analysts anticipated a slight decrease to 57.0 points. In the meantime, the EIA reported US crude oil inventories climbed 1.6M barrels in the week ended March 31, missing expectations for a 0.1M barrel decrease, following the preceding week’s gain of 0.9M barrels and raising concerns over the production cut agreement.
Trends* Q1 17 Q2 17 Q3 17
MAX 122 122 125
75% percentile 116 118 118
Median 114 114 115
25% percentile 110 109 110
MIN 98 100 100 * the data is based on international banks’ forecasts
05.04 open
price 05.04 close price % change
AUD/USD 0.7564 0.7570 0.08%
USD/CHF 1.0020 1.0049 0.29%
USD/JPY 110.75 110.70 -0.05%
NZD/USD 0.6973 0.6964 -0.13%
Thursday, 06 April 2017 07:30 GMT
Major events previous week (March 27 - 31)
Thursday, 06 April 2017 07:30 GMT
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
Day/Time (GMT) Flag Currency Event Period Actual Forecast Previous
MONDAY
08:00 am EUR German Ifo Business Climate March 112.3 111.2 106.9
TUESDAY
02:00 pm USD CB Consumer Confidence March 125.6 113.9 114.8
02:10 pm CAD BOC Gov Poloz Speaks
WEDNESDAY
02:00 pm USD Pending Home Sales m/m February 5.5% 2.3% -2.8%
THURSDAY
07:00 am CHF KOF Economic Barometer 107.6 105.9 107.2
01:30 pm USD Final GDP q/q Q4 2016 2.1% 2.0% 1.9%
FRIDAY
08:30 am GBP Current Account Q4 2016 -12.1B -16.3B -25.5B
01:30 pm CAD GDP m/m 0.6% 0.3% 0.3%
01:30 pm USD Core PCE Price Index m/m February 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
EXPLANATIONS
Chart SMA (55) – Simple Moving Average of 55 periods SMA (200) – Simple Moving Average of 200 periods Forecasts
Third Quartile – separates 25% of the highest forecasts
Second Quartile – the median price based on the projections of the industry
First Quartile – separates 25% of the lowest forecasts
Dukascopy Bank SA, Route de Pre-Bois 20, International Center Cointrin, Entrance H, 1215 Geneva 15, Switzerland tel: +41 (0) 22 799 4888, fax: +41 (0) 22 799 4880 [email protected]
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