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1 For professional investors only Fundamental Long term Contrarian
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Page 1: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

1

For professional investors only

Fundamental

Long term

Contrarian

Page 2: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

A time-tested investment philosophy and organisational structure

Orbis Investments 2

Long Term ContrarianFundamental

Private

OwnershipZero Base Fee

Alignment

of Interests

LONG

TERM

CONTRARIANFUNDAMENTAL

PRIVATE

OWNERSHIPINDIVIDUAL

ACCOUNTABILITY

ALIGNMENT

OF

INTERESTS

INVESTMENT PHILOSOPHY

ORGANISATIONAL STRUCTURE

Page 3: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Orbis Global Equity Fund: our returns

Orbis Investments | 31 May 2017 | Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Orbis Fund share prices fluctuate and are not guaranteed. Returns may decrease or increase as a result of currency fluctuations. When making an

investment in the Funds, an investor’s capital is at risk. Please refer to the notices page explaining how returns are calculated. Net returns are for the Investor Class Fee. *WHT stands for withholding tax,3

Since

Inception

11.9 24.65.4

7.0 6.0 18.0

Total rates of return per annum (%)

14.5

12.5

5y 3y 1y

5

10

20

40

80

160

90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

Valu

e (

US

$)

Net return

FTSE World Index, gross of WHT*

Page 4: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

LONDON

(23)

HONG KONG

(8)

BERMUDA

(8)

SAN

FRANCISCO

(7)

Investment team locations

Orbis Investments | 31 May 2017 | Numbers reflect Orbis’ equity and fixed income analysts. 4

Page 5: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Global Equity: investment team

Orbis Investments | 31 May 2017

William GrayRejoined in 1993

Brett MoshalJoined in 2003

Jeremie

TeboulJoined in 2008

Stefan

MagnussonJoined in 2003

Adam KarrJoined in 2002

US

7 in San Francisco

Nick

PurserJoined in 1996

Edward BlainJoined in 2010

Benjamin

PrestonJoined in 2000

Currency

2 in LondonJapan

6 in London

Europe

7 in London

Emerging Markets

8 in Hong Kong

Global Sector

11 in London & Bermuda

Global Equity

Strategy

5

Page 6: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

S&P 500: starting valuation and subsequent real returns

Orbis Investments | 31 Mar 2017 | Source: Datastream. This chart uses weekly data from March 1987 to show the starting price-to-revenues multiple for the shares in the S&P 500 and their five-year subsequent real return.

Statistics are compiled from an internal research database and are subject to subsequent revision due to changes in methodology or data cleaning.

(15%)

(10%)

(5%)

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.05-y

ear

subsequent

real re

turn

of

sto

cks in

S&

P 5

00 (

annualis

ed)

S&P 500: Price/Revenue ratio

Current P/R:

3.2x

6

Page 7: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Financial assets aren’t cheap… but they’re not all expensive

Orbis Investments | 31 May 2017 | Source: Datastream, Orbis. P/E series for stocks use the Datastream US Market, European Market and Emerging Market indices. 7

5

10

15

20

25

08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

US stocks P/E

European stocks P/E

Emerging market stocks P/E

Page 8: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings

Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017

Stock Country Sector % of NAV

Sberbank of Russia Russia Financials 2.8

British American Tobacco United Kingdom Consumer Goods 2.4

Rolls-Royce Holdings United Kingdom Industrials 2.0

Imperial Brands United Kingdom Consumer Goods 1.5

Swatch Group Switzerland Consumer Goods 1.3

SAP Germany Technology 1.2

Barclays United Kingdom Financials 1.1

Other 4.5

16.8

8

Page 9: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Swatch

Orbis Investments | Source: Shutterstock, The Swatch Group. 9

The perception The reality

Page 10: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Swiss watchmaking – an enduring brand

Orbis Investments | 31 Dec 2016 | Source: Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, Datastream, Shuterstock. *Prices have been adjusted for inflation using Swiss CPI. 10

Steady volumes and rising prices

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

CH

F

Units (

in m

illio

ns)

Volume (LHS) Average price, adjusted for inflation* (RHS)

Page 11: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Two headwinds create a contrarian opportunity

Orbis Investments | Source: Wikimedia Commons. 11

Apple Watch 1 Xi Jinping2

Page 12: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

The value of Swiss watches exported to China has declined

Orbis Investments | 31 Dec 2016 | Source: Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry, Wikimedia Commons. 12

0

5

10

15

20

25

06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

CH

F (

in b

illio

ns)

Greater China Rest of World

Page 13: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Swatch share price and fundamentals over the long term

Orbis Investments | 31 May 2017 | Source: Orbis, Datastream. Annual fundamentals using a December fiscal year end. 13

6.25

12.5

25

50

100

200

400

800

1600

93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

CH

F

Tangible net asset value 10x Earnings per share Share price

Page 14: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Diversified portfolio of businesses

Orbis Investments | Source: Shutterstock 14

Page 15: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

15

For professional investors only

Long Term

Fundamental

Contrarian

Page 16: Fundamental Long term Contrarian - Allan Gray · Orbis Global Equity Fund: European holdings Orbis Investments I 31 Mar 2017 Stock Country Sector % of NAV Sberbank of Russia Russia

Notices

Legal Notices

The content and information provided are owned by Allan Gray Proprietary Limited ("Allan Gray"), and are protected by

copyright and other intellectual property laws. All rights not expressly granted are reserved. The content and information may

not be reproduced or distributed without the prior written consent of Allan Gray.

Approved for use in the United Kingdom by Orbis Portfolio Management (Europe) LLP, 28 Dorset Square, London, England NW1 6QG;

a firm authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (“FCA”). These materials have been prepared by Orbis to form a

presentation on the Orbis investment methodology. Except in regard to the Orbis SICAV, a UK recognised scheme available to all UK

resident investors, this communication is directed at professional clients (as defined in the FCA Handbook). None of the Orbis funds are

regulated by the FCA although the Orbis SICAV has been recognised by the FCA. Any investment or investment activity to which this

communication relates is available only to such persons. Persons who are not professional clients should not rely on this

communication. These materials do not constitute an offer or solicitation to invest in the Orbis Funds. Subscriptions are only valid if

made on the basis of the current prospectus or offering memorandum of an Orbis Fund.

This presentation provides general information only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any shares or other

securities in the companies mentioned in it (“relevant securities”) nor does it constitute financial advice. While we have endeavoured to

ensure the accuracy of the information herein, such information is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. At any time,

members of the Orbis Group may have long or short positions in, and may be buying or selling, the investments, if any, referred to in this

presentation. This document has been prepared solely for the information of the party to whom it has been delivered and may not be

reproduced or used for any other purpose. All rights reserved.

Except as otherwise specifically stated, all information and investment team commentary, including portfolio security positions, is as at

the date stated in the top right corner of each page. The views expressed are subject to change without notice. This presentation

contains some forward-looking statements providing current expectations or forecasts of future events; they do not necessarily relate to

historical or current facts. There can be no guarantee that any forward statement will be realized. We undertake no obligation to publicly

update forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Any discussions of specific

securities should not be considered a recommendation to buy or sell those securities. A Fund may buy, sell, or hold any security

discussed herein, on the basis of factors described herein or the basis of other factors or other considerations. Fund holdings will

change.

Collective investment schemes (unit trusts or funds) are generally medium- to long-term investments. The value of units may

go down as well as up. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. There is no guarantee regarding

the capital or the performance of the Funds. The Funds are traded at ruling prices and can engage in borrowing and scrip

lending, subject to the disclosure documents. Unit prices are calculated on a net asset value basis, which is the total market

value of all assets in the Fund, divided by the number of units in issue. Orbis Funds trade weekly on a Thursday and unit

prices as well as a schedule of fees, charges and maximum commissions can be obtained free of charge by contacting Allan

Gray, or from www.allangray.co.za. The Orbis Global Equity Fund is approved for marketing under the Collective Investment

Schemes Control Act 45 of 2002.

Shares of Orbis Global Equity Fund and Investor Share Classes of the Orbis SICAV Funds (Global Balanced, Asia ex-Japan

Equity and Japan Equity): The Funds pay a performance-based fee. The fee is based on the net asset value of the Fund

(share class, in the case of the Orbis SICAV Funds). The fee rate is calculated weekly by comparing the Fund’s (share class,

in the case of the Orbis SICAV Funds) performance over three years against its benchmark. For each percentage point of

three year performance above or below that benchmark’s performance, 0.04 percentage points are added to or subtracted

from 1.5%, subject to (a) a maximum fee of 2.5% per annum and (b) a minimum fee of 0.5% per annum. Note: During the

first three years of the Global Balanced Fund’s existence, (a) returns will be calculated from the launch of the class and

grossed up to represent returns over three years and (b) a portion of the fee may be refunded to the Fund pursuant to

predetermined conditions.

Shares of Orbis Optimal SA Fund Limited: There are two parts to the fee: (a) a base fee of 1.0% per annum, paid monthly, of

the total net assets of each share class; plus (b) a performance fee of 20% of the outperformance of each class of Fund

share’s weekly rate of return relative to its performance fee hurdle, calculated and accrued on each dealing day and paid

monthly. The performance fee incorporates a high water mark.

The total expense ratio (TER) is the percentage of a Fund’s average assets under management that has been used to pay

the Fund’s operating expenses over the past year. The TER includes the annual management fees that have been charged

(both the base fee and the performance fee, if applicable) and other administrative expenses and excludes trading costs.

The current TER cannot be used as an indication of future TERs. The Fund’s performance figures are quoted after the

deduction of costs incurred within the Fund so the TER is not a new cost. A schedule of fees and charges is available in

each Fund’s disclosure documents.

Returns

Net returns for Orbis Funds are calculated gross of all income, net of fees and expenses, and assume reinvestment of dividends. Gross

returns are calculated gross of all income, net of all expenses, and assume reinvestment of dividends. Returns in currencies other than

the Fund’s base currency have been calculated using exchange rates used to value the Orbis Funds.

Sources (when relevant)

FTSE: FTSE World Index data source is FTSE International Limited ("FTSE”) © FTSE 2017. FTSE is a trade mark of the London Stock

Exchange Group companies and is used by FTSE under licence. All rights in the FTSE indices and/ or FTSE ratings vest in FTSE

and/or its licensors. Neither FTSE nor its licensors accept any liability for any errors or omissions in the FTSE indices and/or FTSE

ratings or underlying data. No further distribution of FTSE data is permitted without FTSE's express written consent. MSCI: The MSCI

information may only be used for your internal use, may not be reproduced or redisseminated in any form and may not be used as a

basis for or a component of any financial instruments or products or indices. None of the MSCI information is intended to constitute

investment advice or a recommendation to make (or refrain from making) any kind of investment decision and may not be relied on as

such. Historical data and analysis should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of any future performance analysis, forecast or

prediction. The MSCI information is provided on an “as is” basis and the user of this information assumes the entire risk of any use made

of this information. MSCI, each of its affiliates and each other person involved in or related to compiling, computing or creating any MSCI

information (collectively, the “MSCI Parties”) expressly disclaims all warranties (including, without limitation, any warranties of originality,

accuracy, completeness, timeliness, non-infringement, merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose) with respect to this

information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall any MSCI Party have any liability for any direct, indirect, special,

incidental, punitive, consequential (including, without limitation, lost profits) or any other damages. (www.msci.com). Tokyo Stock Price

Index (“TOPIX”): Tokyo Stock Exchange. TOPIX hedged into US$ and euro are calculated by Orbis using an industry-standard

methodology using the TOPIX which is in yen and is proprietary to the Tokyo Stock Exchange. No further distribution of the TOPIX data

is permitted. Morningstar: © 2017 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. The Morningstar information contained herein: (1) is proprietary to

Morningstar and/or its content providers; (2) may not be copied or distributed; and (3) is not warranted to be accurate, complete or

timely. Neither Morningstar nor its content providers are responsible for any damages or losses arising from any use of this information.

Hedge Fund Research Equity Market Neutral Index: Bloomberg.


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