July 2015
Source: SBP, PBS, Bloomberg
Equity Market Review and Outlook:
FUND MANAGER REPORT
For the month of October 2017
Macro Review and Outlook:CPI InflationCPI for the month of Oct-17 clocks in at +3.8%YoY; Food prices sustain momentum
AsperthelatestdatapublishedbyPakistanBureauofStatistics(PBS),headlineCPIinflationclockedinat+3.8%YoY(+0.7%MoM)forthemonthofOct‐17comparedto+4.2%YoY(+0.8%MoM)inthesameperiodlastyear,bringing4MFY18averageinflationto+3.5%YoY.KeydriversincludedHouseRentIndex(HRI),transportindex,educationindexandfoodindex,risingby+6.5%YoY,+3.9%YoY,+11.5%YoYand+3.2%YoYrespectively.FoodIndexisup+2.2%YoYinOct‐17,pullingup4MFY18averagefoodinflationto+1.5%YoY.Theuptickinfoodbasketisprimarilyduetoriseinpricesofperishables(up16.4%YoY)with1percentagepoint(ppt)contribution,whilecigaretteprices(down16.4%YoY)continuetobethedraghavinga‐0.2pptimpact.Non‐perishableswereupbyameagre+0.8%YoY,subduingfoodinflation.Therisingtrendinfoodpricescouldsubsideincomingmonthsoncesupplyofperishablefooditemsmoderate,keepinginflationsoft.Coreinflationeasedby10bpsMoMto+5.3%YoYcomparedto+5.4%YoYinSep‐17.SinceJul‐17,coreinflationhasdroppedby30bpsindicatingreductioninunderlyinginflationarypressuresontheeconomy.
External AccountCurrent account balance reached a deficit of USD 0.96bn in month of Sep-17:
DuringthemonthofSep‐17,CurrentaccountdeficitreachedtoUSD0.96bn,significantlyupby73.8%MoMand4.5xYoY,onthebackofmonthly/yearlyhigh/lowbaseeffect,howevercontinuouslyswollenofcurrentaccountdeficitmainlyderivedbydeclineinexportsandremittances,downby17.1%/33.8%MoMrespectively,moreoverFDIcouldnotsustainedit’sprogressivetrendshowninstartofFY18,inflowsdeclineby15.7%MoM.DuringtheMonthofSep‐17Country’sexportsstoodatUSD1.7bn,downby17.1%MoM,whereasimportbillalsodownby8.2%MoM,arrivedatUSD3.9bn,onaccountofhigherbaseeffect,whileIntradeterms,Country’stradedeficitreachedatUSD2.2bnimprovedby0.4%MoM.
FX Reserves slightly down by 0.3%MoM in Oct-17: FX reserves by the end of Oct-17 stood at USD 19.8bn as compared to USD 19.8bn in Sep-17 (down by 0.1mn).
Equity market Review and outlook:
Indexdownupby6.6%inOct‐17,duetopoliticalinstabilityandforeignoutflowsofUSD8.9mn.AfterpostingameagregrowthinmonthofSep‐17,KSE100couldnotsustainedat42klevelandarrivedat39Kpointsbypostingdeclineof6.6%MoM,duringthemonthofOct‐17thebenchmarkofKSE100indexdroppedby~2,792pointstoclosedat39,618pointsdeclineinindexonthebackofa)Politicalinstabilityb)Continuouslyforeignsellingc)lowerdailytradedvolumes.Averagetradingvolumesofthemarketwererecordedat156mnshares,slightlyupby8.2%MoMinOct‐17ascomparedtoaverage144mnsharesregisteredinSep‐17,increaseinvolumedepictattractiveprices,howeverprevailingcountry’spoliticalsituationpushtheinvestortoremainside‐linefortakingposition.LeadersandLaggardsbyMarketCapitalization:InthemonthofOct‐17,whereindexpostedanegativereturnof6.6%MoM,noneofthesectorwasinlimelightexceptMudarbas&Tobaco,howevertoplaggardwereOil&MarketingCompanies(downby16%MoM),PowerGenerationandDistributionCompanies(downby15%MoM),Refineries(downby15%MoM),Cement&Banksdownby13%/8%MoMrespectively.VolumewiseCementledthechart,upby+9.1%MoMfollowedbyPowerGeneration&DistributionCompanies,Cable&ElectricalGoodsupbyupby+4.6%/+2.4%MoMrespectively,howevervolumesdeclineinCommercialsBanksby5.4%MoM,Technology&CommunicationandFertilizerdownby2.0%/1.7%MoMrespectively.Keydomestic/internationalnews:•SBPkeptthepolicyrateunchangedat5.75%toachievetargetedgrowthrateof6%inFY18.•DuringthemonthofOct‐17governmentimposedRDonvariousproducttocurtailcurrentaccountdeficit.•InthemonthofOct‐17,brokers,andmutualfundsrepresentativeheldameetingwithprimeministertodiscusstheissuesconfrontingtheequitymarket.•TheWorldBankshownitssupportforPakistantoimplementbroadeconomicreformsandaddresscurrentriskstowardsachievingitsdevelopmentaspirations.
KSE 100
Money Market Review and Outlook:
Yield CurveMoneyMarketReviewandoutlookDuringthemonthofOct‐17,moneymarkettradedclosetothetargetrateamidregularliquidityinjections(5xOMOinjections)bySBPatclosetopolicyrate.OMOmaturitywitnessedadipinmaturitysizetoPKR1,375bnatmonthendcomparedtoPKR1,424bnpreviousmonth.InvestorsremainedbiasedtowardsshorttermbillsasevidentbyamassivecumulativeparticipationofPKR1,892bninT‐billsauctionsvsatargetofPKR1,300bn,whichwasmainlyconcentratedin3monthspaper.ThecentralbankacceptedtotalbidsworthPKR1,522bnwithcut‐offratesunchanged from the previous month
41,312.6
39,846.8
42,087.9
41,105.4
146 147
191
152
‐
50
100
150
200
250
38,500.0
39,000.0
39,500.0
40,000.0
40,500.0
41,000.0
41,500.0
42,000.0
42,500.0
10/07/17 10/14/17 10/21/17 10/28/17
Index Vol. (mn) ‐RS
(3,500)
(3,000)
(2,500)
(2,000)
(1,500)
(1,000)
(500)
-
(2,500.0)
(2,000.0)
(1,500.0)
(1,000.0)
(500.0)
-Trade Balance (USDmn) Current Acc. Bal. (USDmn)
-1.00
-0.50
-
0.50
1.00
1.50
-
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
CPI %MoM CPI %YoY
5.99 6.01 6.02 6.03
6.83
7.50
7.98
8.26
5.50
6.00
6.50
7.00
7.50
8.00
8.50
3M 6M 9M 1 YR 3YR 5YR 7YR 10YR
31/Oct/17 30/Sep/17 31/Oct/16
Strategy
Risk Profile
Pricing Mechanism
Pricing Days
Management Fee
Launch Date
Oct‐17 Sep‐17 MoM %
NAV per Unit (PKR) 115.2 118.3 ‐2.57%
Net Assets Value (PKR '000) 241,051 233,184 3.37%
* Asset Allocation have been developed by looking through the underlying assets of mutual funds investments.
30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 365 Days CYTD Since Inception
IGI Aggressive Fund ‐ IAF ‐2.57% ‐2.10% ‐7.81% ‐12.19% 2.35% ‐10.05% 6.93%
21‐Sep‐15 Value of 100 Rupees invested since inception
IGI Takaful Aggressive Fund‐TAF
For the month of October 2017
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE:To provide investors with an opportunity to earn long‐term capital appreciation optimizing through broad mix of asset classes largely driven by Shariah
compliant equity with a proportion of Shariah compliant fixed income & money market instruments.
FUND INFORMATION: RETURNS:Fixed Income / Equity
High During the month the fund generated an
absolute return of ‐2.57% against its last
month absolute return of 0.48%.
Daily Forward Pricing
Monday to Friday
1.5%
Absolute Return Annualized Return
IGI Aggressive Fund ‐ IAF BID PRICE:
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Market volatility can significantly affect short‐term performance. The value of
investment can fall as well as rise.
ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT:
Note: Fund returns are gross of management fee.
ASSET ALLOCATION *:
Oct‐17 Sep‐17
FUND PERFORMANCE:
112.58
117.72
125.75128.18 128.58 128.20
131.23134.95
126.46 124.98
117.70 118.26115.23
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
135.00
140.00
Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17 Apr‐17 May‐17 Jun‐17 Jul‐17 Aug‐17 Sep‐17 Oct‐17
38.7%
5.8%9.4%
43.7%
2.4%
Cash TFC's /Sukuk
T‐Bills TDR PIB's Stock DFI &Others
35.3%
7.2% 10.0%
44.4%
3.1%
Cash TFC's /Sukuk
T‐Bills TDR PIB's Stock DFI &Others
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
Oct‐15
Oct‐16
Oct‐17
Strategy
Risk Profile
Pricing Mechanism
Pricing Days
Management Fee
Launch Date
Oct‐17 Sep‐17 MoM %
NAV per Unit (PKR) 111.9 113.4 ‐1.29%
Net Assets Value (PKR '000) 550,704 523,779 5.14%
* Asset Allocation have been developed by looking through the underlying assets of mutual funds investments.
30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 365 Days CYTD Since Inception
IGI Balanced Fund ‐ IBF ‐1.29% ‐0.85% ‐4.70% ‐7.02% 3.09% ‐4.97% 5.48%
21‐Sep‐15 Value of 100 Rupees invested since inception
IGI Takaful Balanced Fund‐TBF
For the month of October 2017
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE:The investment objective of the Fund is to earn competitive long term return by investing in mix of Shariah compliant equity, fixed income and money
market instruments. This fund is suited for investors with moderate risk tolerance.
FUND INFORMATION: RETURNS:Fixed Income / Equity
Moderate During the month the fund generated an
absolute return of ‐1.29% against its last
month absolute return of 0.44%.
Daily Forward Pricing
Monday to Friday
1.5%
Absolute Return Annualized Return
IGI Balanced Fund ‐ IBF BID PRICE:
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Market volatility can significantly affect short‐term performance. The value of
investment can fall as well as rise.
ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT:
Note: Fund returns are gross of management fee.
ASSET ALLOCATION *:
Oct‐17 Sep‐17
FUND PERFORMANCE:
49.4%
9.4%14.0%
24.1%
3.1%
Cash TFC's /Sukuk
T‐Bills TDR PIB's Stock DFI &Others
47.8%
10.9% 14.1%
24.0%
3.3%
Cash TFC's /Sukuk
T‐Bills TDR PIB's Stock DFI &Others
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
Oct‐15
Oct‐16
Oct‐17
108.59
112.04
116.78118.22 118.49 118.46
120.39122.68
118.22 117.47
112.91 113.41111.95
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17 Apr‐17 May‐17 Jun‐17 Jul‐17 Aug‐17 Sep‐17 Oct‐17
Strategy
Risk Profile
Pricing Mechanism
Pricing Days
Management Fee
Launch Date
Oct‐17 Sep‐17 MoM %
NAV per Unit (PKR) 107.4 107.3 0.03%
Net Assets Value (PKR '000) 38,508 35,883 7.31%
* Asset Allocation have been developed by looking through the underlying assets of mutual funds investments.
30 Days 60 Days 90 Days 180 Days 365 Days CYTD Since Inception
IGI Conservative Fund ‐ ICF 0.03% 0.47% ‐0.54% ‐0.40% 1.76% 1.32% 3.41%
21‐Sep‐15 Value of 100 Rupees invested since inception
IGI Takaful Conservative Fund ‐ TCF
For the month of October 2017
INVESTMENT OBJECTIVE:To provide stable and competitive returns in line with the money markets exhibiting low volatility consistent with capital preservation by constructing a
liquid portfolio of low risk short term Shariah compliant investments yielding competitive returns.
FUND INFORMATION: RETURNS:Fixed Income
Low During the month the fund generated an
absolute return of 0.03% against its last month
absolute return of 0.44%.
Daily Forward Pricing
Monday to Friday
1.5%
Absolute Return Annualized Return
IGI Conservative Fund ‐ ICF BID PRICE:
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future performance. Market volatility can significantly affect short‐term performance. The value of
investment can fall as well as rise.
ASSETS UNDER MANAGEMENT:
Note: Fund returns are gross of management fee.
ASSET ALLOCATION *:
Oct‐17 Sep‐17
FUND PERFORMANCE:
56.3%
14.4%21.1%
4.2% 4.0%
Cash TFC's /Sukuk
T‐Bills TDR PIB's Stock DFI &Others
55.2%
16.6%20.6%
3.8% 3.8%
Cash TFC's /Sukuk
T‐Bills TDR PIB's Stock DFI &Others
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
Oct‐15
Oct‐16
Oct‐17
105.51105.86
106.19106.65 106.66
107.04
107.80
108.50
107.86 107.95
106.86107.33 107.36
104.00
105.00
106.00
107.00
108.00
109.00
Oct‐16 Nov‐16 Dec‐16 Jan‐17 Feb‐17 Mar‐17 Apr‐17 May‐17 Jun‐17 Jul‐17 Aug‐17 Sep‐17 Oct‐17