Future Automotive Fuel

Options/Implications

January 27, 2005

Charles L. Gray, Jr.Advanced Technology Division

Office of Transportation and Air Quality

2

World Crude Oil Production

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-2000 -1000 0 1000 2000 3000

Wo

rld

Cru

de O

il P

rod

ucti

on

(M

bb

l/d

ay)

Proven Reserves Double Proven Reserves

Source: EIA – Department of Energy

3

0

1020

30

40

5060

70

8090

100

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Wor

ld C

rude

Oil

Prod

uctio

n (M

bbl

/day

)

Proven Reserves Double Proven Reserves

2007

Urgency of Planning for Transition World Crude Oil Production/Consumption

0

1020

30

40

5060

70

8090

100

1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

Wor

ld C

rude

Oil

Prod

uctio

n (M

bbl

/day

)

Proven Reserves Double Proven Reserves

2007

2016

Source: EIA – Department of Energy

4

U.S. Trade Balance - Goods1960-2003

-547,552

-25,500

-111,037

-452,414

-600,000

-400,000

-200,000

0

200,000

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

Mil

lio

ns

of

Do

lla

rs

Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division

5

Major Positive and Negative Commodities 2003 U.S. Trade Balance

-600 -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400

Billion Dollars

Net Trade Balance

Vehicles, Engines, Parts

Petroleum Products

Apparel, Household Goods

Computers, Accessories

Pharmaceutical Preparations

Civilian Aircraft, Engines, Parts

Semiconductors

Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, etc.

Other Industrial Supplies

Plastic Materials

Source: US Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division

6

Domestic Crude Oil Prices 1949 - Present

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1949 1954 1959 1964 1969 1974 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004(Oct)

Dol

lar /

Bar

rel

Nominal Oil P rice

Inflation Adjusted Oil P rice 2004 Dollars

$ 66.20/bbl

$ 54.93/bbl

Source: US Dept of Energy

7

Choices… Decisions…

Engines Incremental

improvements to Gasoline Engines

Clean Diesel Variable Displacement Variable Compression DI Gasoline HCCI engine Fuel Cell Free Piston Engine

Fuels Low Sulfur Gasoline Low Sulfur Diesel Bio-Diesel Fischer-Tropsch Diesel DME (Dimethyl Ether) Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas/CNG/LPG Hydrogen Electricity

Drivetrains CVT Electric Hybrids Hydraulic

Hybrids

The key is to select powertrains that are exciting to the consumer and are simultaneously cost-effective and ultra-efficient.

8

oil- 5,728 (15%)coal- 22,723

(61%)

natural gas- 5,654 (15%)

oil shale / tar sand- 3,173

(9%)

coal- 5,709 (65%)

oil- 126 (1%)

natural gas- 192 (2%)

oil shale / tar sand- 2,840

(32%)

Energy Reserves (Quads BTU)

The World

United States

• International Energy Annual 2002 – EIA/DOE• Oil shale data is from World Energy Council

9

Fuel/Feedstock Comparison - Year 2000

$0.00

$0.50

$1.00

$1.50

$2.00

$2.50

Coal Biomass Municipal Waste Natural Gas

Feedstock

Ga

so

lin

e E

qu

iva

len

t P

um

p P

ric

e,

$/g

al CNG

Methanol

Electricity

Ethanol

Source: 1991 in-house staff study updated to 2000 dollars.

10

11

Key Driver is Economics

12

Non-Petroleum Highway Fuel U.S. Production Potential

2008 2010 2012

Low High Low High Low High

Ethanol / Methanol

3.1 5.1 3.7 8.0 4.5 12.5

Biodiesel .1 .24 .14 .6 .22 1.5

CNG/LPG .2 .25 .22 .31 .24 .37

FT-Diesel 1.7 4.7 5.1 10.3 10.3 15.4

TOTAL 5.1 10.3 9.2 19.2 15.3 29.8

Hwy Fuel Demand

189 195 201 .

(billion gallons, gasoline-equivalent)

Note: From non- coal/shale feedstocks

Source: In-house staff sensitivity projections.

13

Choices… Decisions…

Engines Incremental

improvements to Gasoline Engines

Clean Diesel Variable Displacement Variable Compression DI Gasoline HCCI engine Fuel Cell Free Piston Engine

Fuels Low Sulfur Gasoline Low Sulfur Diesel Bio-Diesel Fischer-Tropsch Diesel DME (Dimethyl Ether) Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas/CNG/LPG Hydrogen Electricity

Drivetrains CVT Electric Hybrids Hydraulic

Hybrids

The key is to select powertrains that are exciting to the consumer and are simultaneously cost-effective and ultra-efficient.

14

EPA Clean Diesel Combustion 4 cylinder engine working, installed in mini-van Meets levels of Tier 2/bin5 NOx (without NOx

aftertreatment) Maintains high diesel efficiency Working with industry on application to larger

engines Public Announcement with International Truck and

Engine Corp. – May 2004 Public Announcement with Ford – January 2005

Methanol Engine Great efficiency 40+% Paper in March 2003 SAE World Congress

Advanced Engine Options

15

EPA Clean Diesel Combustion (1.9L Multi-Cylinder Evaluation)

Engine Brake Efficiency (%) Brake Specific NOx (g/hp-hr)

42%

40-41%

Pexhaust = Pinput + .1 Bar

NOx below .2 everywhere

16

Methanol “CPI” 4-Cylinder Efficiency Results

32

3434

36

36

38

38

40

40

42

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Speed (rpm)

10

20

20

30

30

40

40

50

50

60

Combined Cycle VW 1.9L PFI SIMethanol Turbo Efficiency Map

Combined Cycle Baseline Diesel

VW 1.9L TDI Base Efficiency Map

20

20

22

22

24

24

26

26

28

28

30

30

32

32

34

34

34

36

36

38

3840

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

180.0

200.0

220.0

240.0

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

Speed (rpm)

10

20

20

30

30

40

40

50

50

60

70

80

80

VW 1.9L TDI Base Efficiency Map

40%

40%

17

HCCI Combustion 4 cylinder engine working, installed in truck Virtually “no” NOx or PM emissions Diesel like efficiency from gasoline Excellent engine for a series hybrid Paper in March 2004 SAE World Congress

Free-Piston Engine Great efficiency -Hydraulic power directly from engine for

series hybrids Clean 4-stroke cycle or High Power 2-stroke cycle Capable of Clean Diesel or HCCI combustion High Reliability/Low Cost potential: fewer moving parts Paper in April 2005 SAE World Congress

More Advanced Engine Options

18

HyTEC – Hybrid Thermal Energy Converter Recovers energy from engine exhaust heat, Works best with series hybrids or long haul trucks

Variable Displacement Engine Allows optimum high efficiency use of a small

displacement engine while retaining the option for sustained high power when needed

Variable Compression Engine Allows low power, very efficient engines to also

provide high power performance

Emerging Engine Technologies…

19

Choices… Decisions…

Engines Incremental

improvements to Gasoline Engines

Clean Diesel Variable Displacement Variable Compression DI Gasoline HCCI engine Fuel Cell Free Piston Engine

Fuels Low Sulfur Gasoline Low Sulfur Diesel Bio-Diesel Fischer-Tropsch Diesel DME (Dimethyl Ether) Methanol Ethanol Natural Gas/CNG/LPG Hydrogen Electricity

Drivetrains CVT Electric Hybrids Hydraulic

Hybrids

The key is to select powertrains that are exciting to the consumer and are simultaneously cost-effective and ultra-efficient.

20

Hydraulic Hybrid Configurations

Engine

Trans Drive Shaft

Conventional Vehicle

High Pressure Accumulator

Low Pressure Accumulator

Pump/

Motor

Engine

Pump/Motor & Gearbox

High Pressure Accumulator

Low Pressure Accumulator

Pump/

Motor

Mild Hydraulic

Hybrid (Parallel)

FULLHydraulic

Hybrid(Series)

21

Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid

80+ mpg combined city/highway mpg

~8 seconds 0-60 acceleration time

No need for expensive lightweight materials (test weight 3800 lb)

Led the way for subsequent demonstration vehicles

EPA’s full series hydraulic hybrid test chassis.

Historic EPA Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid Test Chassis

Led to CRADA partnerships with Ford, Eaton, Parker, International Truck and Engine Corp.

22

Sport Utility Vehicle Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid

Full integrated hydraulic hybrid, diesel engine, clean packaging, cost effective, targets 85% mpg improvement from a conventional gasoline vehicle

1-3 year payback for consumer Showcasing the full use

of hydraulics in a Ford Expedition.

Exhibited at the 2004 SAE World Congress

23

Comparison of SUV Technologies… Consumer Payback

Progress Report on Clean and Efficient Automotive Technologies Under Development at EPA - January 2004

www.epa.gov/otaq/technology

24

Urban Delivery Vehicle - Full Series Hydraulic Hybrid

First-ever full integrated hydraulic hybrid delivery vehicle, targets 70% mpg improvement in city driving

2-year payback has attracted attention from fleets

Partnership involving EPA, Eaton, UPS, International Truck and Engine Corporation, and U.S. Army

Showcasing full hydraulic hybrid systems in an

Urban Delivery Vehicle.

Public announcement coming soon!