Future Business Models in Retail Payments Future Business Models in Retail Payments
EDC Payments & Cards Council 2012, Frankfurt am Main
© Edgar, Dunn & Company, 2012
Ag d
V t ll d Ei füh
Agenda
Vorstellung und Einführung
Ulf Geismar, Direktor bei Edgar, Dunn & Company, Frankfurt
„The Digital Wallet – the first choice of payment“
Siegfried Heimgärtner, CEO Skrill, London
„ Overview of successful business models in retail payments”
Pascal Burg Director bei Edgar Dunn & Company Paris Pascal Burg, Director bei Edgar, Dunn & Company, Paris
„Retail Payments Revolution“
David Yates, CEO VocaLink, London
Diskussion
Confidential 2
Edg D & C D E i ith Gl b l R hEdgar, Dunn & Company – Deep Experience with Global Reach
Management consultancy focused on payments since 1978
London FrankfurtParis
Deep expertise in over 30 countries including Germany, France, Spain, Italy, Benelux, UK, USA A i P ifiSan Francisco Atlanta
Singapore
USA, Asia Pacific
We help providers to develop their payment business
Sydney
p
We help merchants to optimize payment costs and revenues
Confidential 3
EinleitungEinleitung
© Edgar, Dunn & Company, 2012
G i k i di t t fidGerman economic key indicators support consumer confidence
Unemployment rate continuous downward trend
Rate in September 2012: 5.4%
Wage negotiations above inflation rate 3
4
5
Percen
tage
rateConsumer Climate Indext at highest level since beginning of end 2007
1
2
3
9
10
erce
ntag
e
Unemployment Rate
‐1
0
5
6
7
8Pe
‐2
1. Qua
rter
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3. Qua
rter
4. Qua
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2. Qua
rter
Qua
rter*
Qua
rter*
4
5
2007
M01
2008
M01
2009
M01
2010M01
2011M01
2012M01
1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3.
4.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Index of Real Wages Index of Monthly Gross Earnings
Consumer Price Index
Confidential 5
Source: GfK, Eurostat, Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), EDC
* Forecast, t Survey is a combination of economic expectation, income expectation and willingness to buy
Aft f h i g t d d After years of cash moving towards cards ...
70% Cash is still the dominant payment method
Continuous decline is 65% Continuous decline is observable
Debit Cards benefit most60%
Attractiveness of mobile and contactless payments for low value transactions 55% for low value transactions will accelerate cash decline
BUT: cash payments start 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Cash 67% 66% 65% 64% 62% 61% 60% 59% 58% 57%
50%p y
to go online
Confidential 6
Source: EHI Retail Institute
it´ d b t POS t i g t th i t t... it s more and more about POS payments moving to the internet
E‐Commerce business grows steady in i il
70
80
425
430
435
erce (€
billion
)
iling (€
billion
) economic turmoilCAGR in E‐Commerce almost 14% over the last 10 years
0.5% in general retailing
50
60
415
420
4 5
E‐Co
mme
Retai 5 g g
E‐Commerce share in retailing grew from less than 2% in 2002 to almost 7% in 2012
2630
30
40
405
410
5%
6%
7%
8%
811
13 1516
18 2022
24
10
20
390
395
400
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
407 401 410 414 416 411 416 409 411 422 4280385
390
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Retailing Ecommerce
0%
E‐Commerce Share in Total Retailing
Confidential 7
Retailing Ecommerce
Source: Statistisches Bundesamt (Destatis), Handelsverband Deutschland (HDE)
* Forecast
i Ri k... as is Risk,
50%
Returned Debit Debit (E‐Commerce)
40%
Credit Card Chargeback Ratios(E‐Commerce)
45%
%
30%
35%
40%
45%37%
31%
%
25%
30%
35%
17%
9%
17%
9%5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
10%12%
5%
10%
15%
20%
9% 9%3%
0%
5%
0‐1% 1‐2% 2‐3% 3‐5% 5‐10% >10%
6% 4%0%
5%
0% 0‐0.25% 0.25‐0.5% 0.5‐1% 1‐3% >3%
Top Reasons for Failed Direct Debits 78% of Online Merchants have Chargeback Insufficient Funds on Current Account: 93%Invalid Account Details
Almost 1/3 (29%) of Online Merchants have
Ratios below 0,5%
Confidential 8
Return Debit Notes higher than 3%Source: ibi research 2011
d F d ... and Fraud,
C b iCybercrime
Credit card data is used to purchase goods online and to re‐sell it
Use of 3D Secure in Online Shops
g
Although no valid data is available the federal criminal office expects damages of card fraud to have increased
57,9%
48%Yes
of card fraud to have increased tremendously
Credit card data is a tradable good in the “ d d ”
42,1%No
“underground economy”
Shift from crime with “white‐plastics” in favor of card‐not‐present fraud
30%
p2012 2010
Remainder in 2010:
unaware of 3D Secure
Confidential 9
Source: Cybercrime Bundeslagebild 2011 (BKA), EHI Retail Institute
...while skimming is on the decline following EMV ig ti i G migration in Germany
Fraud with German white plastics moves to mon EMV compliant countries
Confidential 10
Source: Lagebild Zahlungskartenkriminalität 2011 (BKA)
New payment methods and products are increasingly di if i g th t l h i diversifying the payment value chain,
2003
2009
2003
1950 1990198019701960
2005
20202000
2007
2003
2003
Confidential 11
Physical MobileOnline
d t diti l l ki g ig ifi t i ti… and non traditional players are making significant innovations
A t t tCard on File; or
Prepaid Account; or
Account to account
Closed loop prepaid – linked to bank account
Pass Throughcco
Target: P2P; P2SB
Leverage online Emerging market success storiesLeverage online
banking service to make remote purchases
N bil
success stories
Closed loop account to account
Next stop ‐mobileLinked to bank accounts
Mobile walletsEnable small / Mobile wallets
Focus on NFC and / or remote
/informal sellers to accept card payments
Attachments to
Confidential 12
Billing OptionsAttachments to smart phones
Most innovations, quite wisely, leverage the existing payments i f t tinfrastructure
Agent Agent Networks
Card Networks&
Confidential 13
Banking Networks
Are Banks running the risk of losing the race for the last mile“?
and
race for the „last mile ?
What are the business models of the future?
© Edgar, Dunn & Company, 2012