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Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013

Climate Change

Future CAP for Scotland: Challenges for post 2013

Climate Change

Graham Kerr

Group Manager, SAC Consulting

Scope of PresentationScope of Presentation

• Climate Change effects and impacts

• Agricultural emissions

• Scottish mitigation and adaptation

• Future CAP: Scottish debate so far

• Future CAP: European debate so far

• Future CAP for Scotland to address climate change challenges post 2013

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+ 2 - 6°C

+ 1 - 2°C

+ 1 - 3°C

+ 1 - 3°C

Global temperature rise:+2°CGlobal temperature rise:+2°C

3Source: Met Office

+ 8 - 16 °C

+ 5 - 7 °C

+ 3 - 8 °C

+ 4 - 8 °C

Source: Met Office

Global temperature rise:+4°CGlobal temperature rise:+4°C

Source: Cline 2007, http://maps.grid.no.go/graphic/projected-agriculture-in-2080-due-to-climate-change

Change in Farming: ProductionChange in Farming: Production

Source: UKCP09

Changes in mean precipitation to 2080, 50% probability estimate

Winter Summer

Change in farming : RainfallChange in farming : Rainfall

Source: UKCP09

Change in Farming: TemperatureChange in Farming: Temperature

Emissions from AgricultureEmissions from Agriculture

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MtCO2e

Source: Defra 2007

Emissions from AgricultureEmissions from Agriculture

9Source: NAEI 2010

Emissions from AgricultureEmissions from Agriculture

10Source: NAEI 2010

Agriculture contributes a disproportionate amount of high impact GHGArable = 20% of global N2O, Livestock = 37% of global CH4 and 65% of N2O

Agricultures share of non CO2 emissions is 47%

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Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves

Height = cost effectiveness

Width = abatement potential

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Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves Mitigation: Abatement Cost Curves

Cheap option, big emission savings

Expensive options, small emission savings

Financial savings

Farming for a Better ClimateFarming for a Better Climate

• Using energy and fuels efficiently

• Developing renewable energy

• Locking carbon into the soil and vegetation

• Optimising the application of fertilisers and manures

• Optimising livestock management and storage of waste

13www.farmingforabetterclimate.org

Climate Change Focus FarmsClimate Change Focus Farms

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Current Policy InitiativesCurrent Policy Initiatives

• Climate Change Adaptation

• Scottish Forestry Strategy

• Scottish Land Use Strategy

• Agriculture and Climate Change Stakeholder Group

• Climate Change Research

• PLANET Scotland• Scottish Greenhouse

Gas Tool Project• SRDP

– Grants and support– Skills Development

Funds

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Climate Change – the contextClimate Change – the context

1. Freedom and flexibility

2. Sustainable food production with environmental benefits

3. Capital Grants

4. Wider uptake of environmental schemes

5. LEADER

More stringent GAEC standards ruled out

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Pack Report: EnvironmentPack Report: Environment

European PerspectiveEuropean Perspective

• The aim of this Reform is also to improve the overall environmental performance of the CAP (Dacian Ciolos, January 2011)

• Objective 2: Sustainable management of natural resources and climate action– Enhanced provision of public goods– Green growth through innovation– Pursue climate change mitigation and adaptation

actions to allow response to climate change

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European Policy OptionsEuropean Policy Options

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Option 1

Option 2

Option 3

Policy OptionsPolicy Options

• Voluntary agreements• Information Provision• Grants, subsidies, charges, levies and taxes

– Mix of incentives and penalties– Links subsidies and incentives to environmental objectives– Carbon tax

• Cap and trade– Price emissions and incentives to find efficient ways to lower

emissions

• Direct Regulation– Emissions standards or limits restricting/requiring certain farming

practice

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Options?Options?

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