Future energy vision based on G20¼ŽOS_F1_kashiwagi.pdfEnergy Mix in Japan 2010FY 2016FY 2030FY...

Takao Kashiwagi

Distinguished Professor・Professor Emeritus, Tokyo Institute of Technology, Chairman, Advanced Cogeneration and Energy Utilization Center Japan

Future energy vision based on G20

Clean Coal Day in Japan9th Sep 2019

Draw up strategic plan All Japan’s efforts (projects, international collaboration, financial dialogue, policy)

5th Strategic Energy Plan

Towards 2030~ To reduce emission of greenhouse gases

by 26% ~~ To achieve energy mix target ~– Currently halfway to the target– Deliberate promotion– Realistic initiatives– Intensify and enhance measures

<Primary measures> Renewable energy• Lay foundations to use as major power source• Cost reduction, overcome system constraints,

secure flexibility of thermal power

Nuclear power • Lower dependency on nuclear power generation

to the extent possible• Restart of nuclear power plants and continuous

improvement of safety

Fossil fuels• Promote independent development of fossil

fuels upstream, etc.• Effective use of high-efficiency thermal power

generation• Enhance response to disaster risks, etc.

Energy efficiency• Continued thorough energy efficiency • Integrated implementation of regulation of Act

on Rationalizing Energy Use and support measures

Promotion of hydrogen/power storage/distributed energy

Towards 2050~ Toward reducing GHGs by 80% ~

~ Challenges towards energy transitions and decarbonisation ~

– Possibility and uncertainty– Ambitious multiple track scenario– Pursue every option– Choose priorities by scientific review

<Primary directions> Renewable energy• Aim to use as major power source, economically

independent and decarbonised• Start on hydrogen/power storage/digital

technology development

Nuclear power • One of the options for decarbonisation• Pursuit of safe reactors, development of back

end technologies

Fossil fuels • Major power source during the transitional

period. Enhance resource diplomacy• Shift to gas, fadeout inefficient coal• Start hydrogen development for

decarbonisation

Heat & transportation, distributed energy• Challenges for decarbonisation with hydrogen,

power storage, etc.• Distributed energy systems and regional

development(Combination of next generation renewables/ power storage, EV, micro grid, etc.)

Changingcircumstances ① Start of inter-technology

competition for decarbonisation② Geopolitical risk increased by technology changes

③ Intensified competition between nations and firms

We aim to contribute to further growth of the Japanese economy, improvement of the standard of living, and global development through

energy supply that is stable, sustainable long term, and independent.Following the 3Es+S principles, realise an energy supply and demand structure

that is stable, low-burden, and compatible with the environment.3Es+S Sophisticated 3Es+S

〇 Safety + Safety innovation by technology/governance reform〇 Energy security + Raise technical self-sufficiency rate and ensure diversity of choice〇 Environment + Work towards decarbonisation〇 Economic efficiency + Enhance domestic industrial competitiveness

1. Start of inter-technology competition for decarbonizationEfforts to create a decarbonized energy system by combining technologies for renewable energy, electricity storage, digital control, etc.

2. Geopolitical risks increased by technology changesEnergy structure remaining subject to geopolitical risks; Geopolitical risks coming to the surface; Dependence on China for solar panels

3. Intensified competition between nations and firmsSetting of ambitious visions by the national government; Individual firms' activities to pursue new technologies; Responses of financial and capital markets

Structure of the 5th Strategic Energy PlanChapter 1 Structural Issues, Changes in Circumstances, and Policy Timeframe

● Efforts to achieve an optimal energy mix by 2030 only half done(i) Energy efficiencyEstimated to achieve energy reduction of around 50 million kl in FY2030The amount of reduction as of FY2016 around 8.8 million kl

(ii) Zero-emission power source ratioEstimated to be around 44% in FY2030The ratio as of FY2016 being 16% (renewable energy: 15%; nuclear power: 2%)

(iii) Energy-derived CO2 emissionsEstimated to be around 0.93 billion tons in FY2030The emissions as of FY2016 around 1.13 billion tons

(iv) Electricity costEstimated to be 9.2 trillion to 9.5 trillion yen in FY2030The cost as of FY2016 around 6.2 trillion yen

(v) Energy self-sufficiency rateEstimated to be 24% in FY2030The rate as of FY2016 around 8%

Section 3 Achievement of an optimal energy mix by 2030 and its relation with the 2050 scenario

1. Vulnerability due to high dependency on overseas energy resourcesWorsening of the situation due to suspension of nuclear power plants; Japan's energy self-sufficiency rate for FY2016 remaining around 8%

2. Mid- to long-term changes in the energy demand structure (population decline, etc.)Demand decrease due to population decline; Possible changes in energy demand structure due to digitalization, such as the dissemination of AI, IoT and VPP

3. Instability of resource prices (increased energy demand in emerging countries, etc.)Changes in demand trends (China, etc.) and in supply structure (shale revolution) → Oil price in 2040 estimated to be 60 to 140 dollars (IEA)

4. Increasing global greenhouse gas emissions32 billion tons in 2016 →Approx. 36 billion tons in 2040 (IEA's New Policy Scenario); Momentum caused by the Paris Agreement and SDGs

Section 1 Structural issues faced by Japan

Section 2 Changes in energy environments

●Ideas towards 2030 ●Ideas towards 2050

1. Confirmation of the basic viewpoint (3Es+S): To ensure environmental suitability while improving economic efficiency, on the premise of safetyand with energy security as the top priority; To aim to achieve an optimal energy mix by 2030 under the principles of 3Es+S

2. Building of a "multilayered and diversified flexible energy supply-demand structure" and policy direction: Full utilization of AI and IoT3. Position of each energy source in the primary energy structure and its policy direction: Position of each energy source; Policy direction to

achieve an optimal energy mix by 2030; Preparation for utilizing renewable energy as the major power source4. Principles of the secondary energy structure: Facilitation of strategic development of the system and infrastructure based on the Basic Hydrogen

Strategy

Chapter 2 Basic Policies and Measures towards 2030

1. Promotion of securing of resources: Promotion of independent development of fossil fuel and mineral resources and establishment of a robustindustrial system

2. Realization of a thorough energy efficient society: Integrated implementation of the Act on Rationalizing Energy Use and support measures3. Efforts for the utilization of renewable energy as the major power source: Efforts to reduce costs, overcome system constraints, and secure

sufficient load following capacity4. Re-establishment of the nuclear energy policy: Reconstruction and revitalization of Fukushima; Continuous pursuit of safety and establishment of

stable business environment5. Efficient and stable use of fossil fuel: Promotion of effective use of high-efficiency thermal power generation6. Fundamental reinforcement of measures for realizing a hydrogen society: Implementation of measures based on the Basic Hydrogen Strategy7. Promotion of energy system reform: Promotion of competition; Development of market environments for responding to public issues and balancing

public interests8. Enhancement of resilience of the domestic energy supply networks: Strengthening of the preparedness against disaster risks such as earthquakes

and snow damage9. Improvement of the secondary energy structure: Promotion of cogeneration; Utilization of storage batteries; Dissemination of next-generation

vehicles10. Development of energy industry policy: Enhancement of competitiveness and international expansion; Promotion of a distributed energy system

based on the idea of local production for local consumption11. International energy cooperation: Strengthening of collaboration with the US, Russia and Asian countries; Contribution to significant CO2

emission reduction in the whole world

1. Formulation of plans and roadmaps for energy-related technology development: Promotion of energy and environmental innovation strategies2. Technical challenges to be addressed: Discovery and cultivation of innovative seeds of renewable energy; Innovation of nuclear technologies based

on social demand; Reduction of hydrogen costs; Development of methanation technologies

1. Deepening of understanding of all levels of the society: Ongoing efforts to improve PR activities and ways of information provision; Positivepublication in an easy-to-understand manner

2. Transparent policy planning processes and enhancement of two-way communication: Utmost disclosure of policy planning processes;Enhancement of two-way communication; Communication concerning nuclear power through a regional symbiosis platform

Section 1 Basic policies

Section 2 Policy measures towards 2030

Section 3 Promotion of technology development

Section 4 Enhancement of communication with all levels of the society

Chapter 3 Efforts for Energy Transitions and Decarbonization towards 2050

● Comparison with major countries- UK: Combining multiple means for decarbonization, such as expanded use of renewable energy, shift to gas, and continuous use of nuclear power → Effectively reducing

CO2 emissions- Germany: Pursuing decarboniszation only through energy saving and expanded use of renewable energy → CO2 emission reduction stagnating due to dependence on coal

● Energy environments unique to Japan (poor in resources, lacking international interconnections, facing area constraints)→Adoption of ambitious multiple tack scenario to pursue every option

●All-out efforts: Public-private collaborative efforts to constantly promote technological innovation and foster and secure human resources●Measures for the global issue of underinvestment: Steady designing and creation of a mechanism to secure required investment● Implementation scenario: Intensive allocation of policy resources to achieve energy transitions and decarbonization; Implementation of political

measures such as market reform and system reform; Efforts to make international collaboration; Enforcement of the industry and reconstruction ofenergy infrastructure; Reconstruction of a fund flow mechanism

● Renewable energy: Aim to develop and utilize renewable energy as the major power source, economically independent and decarbonized;Development of high-performance low-price storage batteries

● Nuclear power: Practical option for decarbonization; Pursuit of safe reactors and development of back end technologies for restoring social trust● Fossil fuel: Major power source during the transitional period until the achievement of decarbonization; Shift to gas; Fadeout of inefficient coal use;

CCS and shift to hydrogen

1. Sophisticated 3Es+S〇 Safety: With safety as the top priority, achieve innovation by technology/governance reform〇 Energy Security: Raise resource self-sufficiency rate and technical self-sufficiency rate and ensure diversity of choice〇 Environment: Work towards environmental suitability and decarbonization〇 Economic Efficiency: Mitigate the cost burden on the people and enhance domestic industrial competitiveness

2. Scientific review mechanismRegularly ascertain the latest technological trend and circumstances and flexibly correct and decide development goals and relative priorities of each option

3. Cost/risk verification and dynamism among decarbonizing energy systemsShift from cost verification by power source to cost/risk verification among decarbonizing energy systems- Comparison of all costs actually required (including costs for supply and demand adjustments and system reinforcement, etc.) is difficult through cost verification by

power source.- Verify technologies and costs of energy systems as a whole, including heat and transportation systems, and achieve dynamic energy transitions

Section 4 All-out efforts to realize the scenario

Section 2 Designing of the 2050 scenario

Section 3 Issues faced by each option and priorities in response thereto

Section 1 Ambitious multiple track scenario - Pursue every option

Energy Mix in Japan

2030FY2016FY2010FY

Renewables 7%

Nuclear 11%

Fossil fuels: 82%Gas 19%Oil 40%Coal 23%

Nuclear 0% Renewables13-14%

Nuclear11-10%



Renewables 10%

Renewables 22-24%

Nuclear22-20%

Renewables 15% Renewables 10%

Nuclear 26%

Fossil fuels: 64%Gas 28%Oil 9%

Coal 27%



Fossil fuels

Non-fossil fuels

Wind 1.7%

Geothermal1.0-1.1%

Solar 7.0%

Biomass3.7-4.6%

Hydro8.8-9.2%

Nuclear 2%

Primary energy

Power

• Energy Mix is a forecast and also a vison of a desired energy structure. the goals of “Energy security”, “Economic efficiency” and “Environment” are achieved

0

Source: IEA, METI statistics

Current State of Zero Emission RatioJapan

US(in 2015)

EU (in 2015)

In 2010 In 2015 EU ave.*1 Germany UK France

Zero emission rate 35% 16% 33% 56% 44% 46% 93%

Renewable energy 10% 15% 13% 29% 29% 25% 16%

Variable renewables

0.7% 4% 5% 13% 18% 14% 5%

Stablerenewables

9% 11% 8% 16% 11% 11% 11%

Nuclear 25% 1% 19% 27% 14% 21% 78%

PV：3%Wind：1%

PV：1%Wind：4%

PV：3%Wind：10%

PV：6%Wind：12%

PV：2%Wind：12%

PV：1%Wind：4%

Hydro ：9%Geo：0.3%

Biomass ：2%

Hydro ：6%Geo ：0%

Biomass ：1%

Hydro ：11%Geo ：0.2%

Biomass ：6%


Biomass ：7%


Biomass ：9%


Biomass ：1%

PV：0.3%Wind：0.4%

Hydro：7%Geo*2：0.2%Biomass：1%

*1 OECD members, *2 Geothermal power 1

2

Interconnection with overseas grid

Compact CitySmart Building

Commercial Area Area-wide use of energy

Smart Factory

Large CHP

Industrial Area

Demand side・Demand side management・Mutual use of infrastructure

Information

Thermal network

CHP, Battery, Renewables

Area-wide thermal use, Coproduction, biomass, Hydrogen infrastructure Ad-Absorption

Thermal network

Thermalnetwork

H2 Network(Power to Gas)

Mega power generation

Smart meterSmart HELED, HPFuel Cell, Solar, Battery

Residential Area

Smart House

Electricity

Supply side ・Next generation conversion ・Sector integrated energy supply

Direct current transmissionUltrahigh voltage transmission

※

Wind, Mega solar Renewables

・Thermal network・Ad-Absorption Tech.

H2 Network(Power to Gas)

FEMS

Electricity

Smart City

・ 5G IoT・ Big Data・ A-I・ Society 5.0

Industry 4.0

Thermal Waste Heat Utilization for Achieving Super Smart Community

All Rights Reserved : Kashiwagi Lab.

Ｃ

Nuclear power

1


Utilization of various energy sources Promote introduction of domestic solar power generation and an approach for local production and local

consumption such as aerial expansion of thermal utilization including waste heat recovery and renewable energy heat.

Promote introduction of cogeneration including residential fuel cell(*ENE・FARM) expected to be utilized as a distributed energy system. *ENE・FARM：improved residential fuel cell with the world’s highest energy efficiency and conservation

[Gas cogeneration]

Domestic solar power generation

[ENE FARM]

Renewable energyThermal utilization:

Approx. 13,410 ML• Solar heat: Approx.550 ML• Biomass, etc.: Approx. 6,670 ML• Unutilized heat, etc.: Approx. 6,180 ML

Domestic solar power generationApprox. 9.5 billion kWh

* Of them, 40% or so are domestically consumed.

ENE FARM5,300,000 units (Approx. 16 billion kWh)

CogenerationApprox. 119 billion kWh

2


Renewable energies, electric vehicles, and plug-in hybrid vehicles in residential communities

3

Demonstration of Smart Communities in Japan Starting in FY2011, large-scale smart community demonstration projects have been proceeding in 4

regions across Japan that constitute representative examples of different concepts, with theparticipation of many residents, local governments, and corporations.

Kitakyushu City

Keihanna Science City

Housing complex styleDemand response demonstration is being implemented for approximately 700 general households. In addition, a power company provides consulting business about saving energy for the residential sector.


Fixed supplier styleIn an area where power is supplied by Nippon Steel &Sumitomo Metal Corporation, a pricing system is beingimplemented in which the energy price fluctuates inaccordance with the state of supply and demand ofenergy for the day, applicable to 180 households.

GEGE

GEGE

Yokohama City

Wide-area metropolis styleLarge-scale demonstrationis being implemented for4000 households and 10large-scale building.Multiple storage batteries asone massive virtual batteryare used to control batterycharging and discharging.

Separate housing styleThe demonstration about local production for localconsumption is being implemented for 67 householdsequipped with devices to create, charge and control.In addition, an advanced transportation systemincluding next generation vehicles is beingimplemented.

Toyota City

4


Establishment of core technologies ①

Developed Community Energy Management System which controls energy supply and demand among a community. (Ex1.)

Established international standard interface (ECHONET Lite) to control devices exist in households. (Ex2)

Route B

Power company

HEMS

ECHONET-Lite

AggregatorOpenADR

CEMS at Kitakyushu（Fuji electric CO., LTD.）

Ex1. Development of CEMS（Community Energy Management System） Ex2. Establishment of standard interface

http://www.tlt.co.jp/tlt/new/sisetsu/led_down/led_down.htm

http://www.tlt.co.jp/tlt/new/sisetsu/led_down/led_down.htm

5


Establishment of core technologies ②

Developed the SCADA system to integrally controls batteries and demonstrated co-operation of batteries for home, workplace, utility. (Ex3)

Developed the system to provides electricity to household from EV and PHEV.（Vehicle to Home: V2H）Complied V2H Guidelines for electric power connection between vehicle and household. Provide electricity to household from FCV was carried out based on this guidelines at the demonstration. (Ex4)

Screen image

Batteries installed at workplace.

Large scale batteries installed

at TsunashimaSubstation (TEPCO)

Residential

batteries

Screen image

■ Provide electricity to household from EV and PHV

Ex３ Development of battery control technology

Ex４ Development of V2H technology

【Source】 Toshiba Co., Ltd

■ Provide electricity to household from FCV

【Source】 Honda Motor Co., Ltd

【Source】 Toyota Motor Co., Ltd

6

Thermal Waste Heat Utilization for Achieving Super Smart CommunityVerify the effects of Demand Response Demonstrated the effect of peak-cut operation by ①Demand Response based on the electricity tariff

(Ex1), and ②Negawatt trading which reduce electricity use based on the request from utility. (Ex2)

Ex1. Price-based Demand Response Ex2. Negawatt Trading

Kitakyushu Results of the FY2012 Number of sample case：180）

＜Baseline＞■ Key points of the guidelines

• Participated to CPP (Critical Peak Pricing) led to reduce electricity approximately 20%.

• Respond to the demand reduction request within 15 minutes at the shortest were verified.

• Complied Guidelines for Trading Negawatts on March 2015.

Results of the FY2013 Number of sample case：178）

(1) Method of estimating theconsumed amount of electricity when DR is not requested.

(2) Method of measuring the amount of electricity saved.

(3) Penalties, compensation paid to consumers, etc.

Requested period

Load

Baseline

Summer of 2012

(Jun to Sep)Winter of 2012(Dec to Feb)

Summer of 2013(Jun to Sep)

Electricity price Peak cut effect Peak cut effect Peak cut effetTOU －－－

CPP＝50yen —18.1% -19.3% -20.2%CPP＝75yen —18.7% -19.8% -19.2%CPP＝100yen —21.7% -18.1% -18.8%CPP＝150yen —22.2% -21.1% -19.2%

KeihannaScience City




Winter of 2012(Dec to Feb)


Electricity Peak cut effect Peak cut effect Peak cut effectTOU

（premium:20yen） -5.9% -12.2% -15.7%

CPP（premium:40yen） —15.0% -20.1% -21.1%

CPP（premium:60yen） —17.2% -18.3% -20.7%

CPP（premium:80yen） —18.4% -20.2% -21.2%

Load duration

Time

7


The Fukushima Plan for a New Energy SocietyThe Fukushima Innovation Coast Initiative

The Fukushima Renewable Energy Institute, AIST (FREA)FREA is a leading institute in Japan which focuses particularly on R&D of renewable energy technology, established under the

National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST).

The floating wind turbines demonstration projectThe world’s largest floating wind turbine (7,000kW) has been installed and in operation off the coast of Fukushima.

* The Innovation Coast Initiative also covers other policy measures in non-energy policy areas.

To accelerate the energy-related policy measures of the Innovation Coast Initiative and to create a future model for a “new energy society”, the Fukushima Plan for a New Energy Society is to be developed in early September.

The Fukushima Plan for a New Energy Society

○Supports for installation of transmission lines in the Abukuma and Futaba areas for building new wind farms.

Expansion of introduction of renewable energy in Fukushima

○Producing green hydrogen from renewable energy (power-to-gas) on the largest scale in the world(10,000kW-class)

Development of a model for realizing a ‘Hydrogen Society’

Creation of smart communitiesin Fukushima

○Demonstration projects in Shinchitown, Naraha town, Namie town and Soma city

○Feasibility studies in other areas of Fukushima prefecture to develop smart communities

To develop clusters of renewables and hydrogen

related industriesTo be a pioneering place for

renewable technologiesTo promote the “Fukushima

Model” to the world

REFERENCE SLIDES


9


Handle electricity supply-demand problem with promotion of introduction of HEMS / BEMS, high efficient air conditioners, lighting and hot-water supply.

Pursue energy efficiency of entire systems by managing entire houses and buildings. In addition, more efficient energy management can be realized by cross-management of houses and buildings,

or regional management.

ZEH- Net zero energy

house

ZEB- Net zero energy

buildingHEMS

BEMSGEGE

Cooperate by buying equipment such as efficient air conditioners and lighting, and controlling them with HEMS or BEMS.

Installation of energy management equipment Optimize houses and buildings

“Net zero energy” means that net annual primary energy consumption is approximately zero.

Regional or cross-regional optimization

Next step in Energy Management

Smart community

http://kaden.watch.impress.co.jp/cda/parts/image_for_link/11605-804-7-1.html




10


Significance of Smart Communities in Japan “As Smart Community is introduced on a larger scale, a more efficient energy supply will be pursued

through demand response etc. In addition, by supplying various energy sources according to the demand, it will be possible to realize significant energy-saving at ordinary times and to ensure the energy supply in an emergency within the entire community, while at the same time Smart Community is expected to support community infrastructure and to have an effect of enhancing the business continuity of companies etc.”(“Fourth Strategic Energy Plan”(Cabinet Decision on April 11, 2014))

More efficient supply of energyDemand and supply can be adjusted by urging electricity-saving etc. at peak hours through demand response etc. without generating more electricity by thermal power plants.

Energy-saving at ordinary timesOptimal operation of energy generating, energy storage and energy-saving equipment etc. according to the situation of demand and supply without impairing comfort.

Ensuring energy supply in an emergency

Energy supply can be achieved within the community by distributed energy system such as renewable energy and cogeneration system etc. in time of disaster.

Response to insufficient adjusting capability

It is possible to mitigate insufficient frequency adjusting capability caused by a sudden output fluctuation, through controlling energy generating/ storage/ saving equipment etc. according to the demand-supply situation.

Response to insufficient capacityIt is possible to mitigate the rise in voltage and suppress reverse power flow by generating demand during light load period utilizing surplus power on the principle of local production for local consumption through controlling energy generating/storage/ saving equipment etc. according to the demand-supply situation.

GEGE

Energy storage equipmentEnergy-saving equipment

Energy generating equipment

Expected effects of establishing Smart Communities

Effective utilization of energy generating equipmentintroduced on the consumer side

Efficiently control the demand

＜Contribution to the wider introduction of renewable energy＞

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