Future Focus Ronan Lyons Dublin 16 June

8/14/2019 Future Focus Ronan Lyons Dublin 16 June

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What's Great about the Great Recession?Ronan Lyons06/16/2009


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Ronan Lyons EconomistJune 11, 2009

Contents

Four elephants in one roomThe world turns a corner The 21 st Century creedCrisi-tunity


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Contents



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Four Irish elephants are trying to hide in the back of the room

Banking

NAMA or nationalise or ...?

Who pays? This generation or thenext?

Budgets

25bn hole in revenuestax not the problem, weare

Property 15 years property built

years... and in the wron

1 in 5 face negative equhouseholds face negatiAND unemployment

Unemployment Over 230,000 'unexpected

unemployed' since 2007

Another 100,000 a possibility

Commuter belt worst hit


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Contents


Turn a different corner And if all that there is is this fear of beimaybe I should go back to being lonely

George Michael on the fate of small ope


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Measured by job losses, recessions up to the 1980s were short and sharp

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

3132

3334

3536

3738

3940

4142

4344

4546

4748

4950

5152

5354

55

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

Private sector jobs lost from peak

"1950s" 1974/75 1981/82 2000-03


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Since then recessions have been getting less frequent, milder... and longer

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

3132

3334

3536

3738

3940

4142

4344

4546

4748

4950

5152

5354

55

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%


"1950s" 1974/75 1981/82 1990/91 2000-03


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The dot bomb recession was particularly long, in terms of job recovery

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

3132

3334

3536

3738

3940

4142

4344

4546

4748

4950

5152

5354

55

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%


"1950s" 1974/75 1981/82 1990/91 2000-03


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This recession combines the worst of the different post-war recessions

12

34

56

78

910

1112

1314

1516

1718

1920

2122

2324

2526

2728

2930

3132

3334

3536

3738

3940

4142

4344

4546

4748

4950

5152

5354

55

-7%

-6%

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%


"1950s" 1974/75 1981/82 1990/91 2000-03 2008/09


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Globally, trade and output have fallen at least as much as in the 1930s

Source: O'Rourke & Eichengreen, http://bit.ly/korbe
http://bit.ly/korbehttp://bit.ly/korbe


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The severity of the crisis has led to an unprecedented policy response

Source: O'Rourke & Eichengreen, http://bit.ly/korbe
http://bit.ly/korbehttp://bit.ly/korbe


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30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

J a n - 0

6

A p r - 0

6 J u

l - 0 6

O c t - 0

6

J a n - 0

7

A p r - 0

7 J u

l - 0 7

O c t - 0

7

J a n - 0

8

A p r - 0

8 J u

l - 0 8

O c t - 0

8

J a n - 0

9

A p r - 0

9

US - manuf UK - manuf Eurozone -manuf

US - services UK - services Eurozone - services

Confidence and activity are returning... slowly


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Each region faces its own growth challenges and opportunities

USA Europe Asia

Business

Demographics

Banking

Government

Other Major environmental chal

Where will

growth comefrom?

Company balance sheets in goodshape pre-recession... vigorous costcutting since

Business - and consumers -particularly dependent on banklending

Shift towards domestic coand welfare systems likeltrade's weaker growth con

Retirement of baby-boomers... USAwill need to remain open to migrationin the future as it has in the past

Population at work is shrinking...rapidly in some countries

Rapidly growing populaticountries China and Japvery fast though

Major problems remain in bankingsystem but some signs of confidencereturning

Concerns over transparency of banksand ability to develop Europe-widesolutions

Lessons from 1980s and 1financial system in good

Significant fiscal boost in short-term...but the shift to bigger government islikely to last

Administrative burden and red-tapean issue for business... being tackledby the EU head-on

A lot of countries are in with significant infrastruprogrammes

A very flexible economy, close tradinglinks with Asian economies

Huge variety between large and small,rich and poor across the 40+countries


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Contents



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Contents


Lisa: Dad, do you know that in China thword for crisis as they do for opportuni

Homer: Yes... Crisi-tunity!


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Technology really is flattening the business landscape

Disruptive technologies do not carewhether it's boom or bust

At the height of the boom, Facebookgrew from 14m users in mid-2006 to27m users by mid-2007

At the height of the bust, Twitter grewfrom 0.5m users to 4.5m users over thecourse of 2008


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Technology means SMEs can focus solely on their core competences

SMEs can penetrate new markets easier

Websites such as Applied Language can translate your website's1000 words into Chinese within a week for less than 100

Sites such as elance match experts with work

SMEs can treat ALL non-core competences as utilities

Manufacturing, packaging, warehouses and logistics can all be

outsourced e.g. Amazon Fulfillment Services There are dedicated online services for accounts, project

management and collaboration

SMEs can manage their own brand among their audience

Identifying more of their audience, and engaging in more interactivecommunication, through online social media


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Technology creates opportunities for new creative brands

Sites like Cafepress offer manufacturing and shipping servicesfor a range of consumers goods...

... like my mug!

Authors and researchers can selltheir work on sites such as Scribd

Etsy is an online marketplace for buying & selling all thingshandmade, connecting artists andcraftspeople with new markets

This is actually for sale ohttp://bit.ly/ro-


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Some of Ireland's most popular Twitter brands...

Over 100,000 Irish brands peoplecompanies are on Twitter

The most popular are dominated bypeople and SMEs

Some well known brands are

These brands have generatedaudiences of hundreds or thousan

for free

The only investment is time


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Thank you

For more, see ronanlyons.com

If you're on Twitter: @ronanlyons

Happy to connect on LinkedIn too

And don't forget to buy your limited edition mug!

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Future Focus Ronan Lyons Dublin 16 June

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