FUTURE GENERATIONin association with Waverley Management Consultants
Brian BraderAlister Wilson
Strategic Futures Coaching
National Council for Higher Education
Valletta, Malta
27th July 2007
Mob: +44(0)7786 180923
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Admin. issues
Emergencies Facilities Phones
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AGENDA
9.30 What is strategic futures analysis? 10.00 Introduction to scenario planning 10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s
driving change in higher education? 11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties
for the future of higher education 11.30 Coffee
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AGENDA cont’d 11.45 Group activity: creating
scenarios 12.30 LUNCH 13.15 Working with scenarios 14.00 The scenario toolkit 14.15 Closing discussion 14.30 Close
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What is Strategic Futures Analysis?
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Characteristics
Structured, evidence-based process Wide range of analytical tools Resilient and innovative strategies Neutral space for challenge Encourages broader dialogue
…….resilient and innovative strategy.resilient and innovative strategy
Resilient and innovative strategic plansResilient and innovative strategic plans
Future a Future a ““Safe place” forSafe place” for
challengingchallengingstrategicstrategic
conversationconversation
Prioritisation for Prioritisation for business business
intelligence,intelligence,
Contingency Contingency trigger pointstrigger points
Evidence and Analysis to…..Evidence and Analysis to…..
Test strategic assumptionsTest strategic assumptions
ID of priorityID of priorityuncertaintiesuncertainties
Core analysisCore analysison certaintieson certainties
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Horizon scanning is……Horizon scanning is……
Looking ahead Looking ahead – beyond usual timescalesLooking acrossLooking across – beyond usual sourcesSeeing things - you don’t normally see
Beyond a Beyond a single futuresingle future
totoImplications Implications for today’s for today’s decisionsdecisions
How to get relevant evidence (1)
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FUTURE GENERATIONHow to get relevant evidence (2)
Drivers of change:
Social Technological Economic Environmental Political
FUTURE GENERATIONHow to get relevant evidence (3)
V
Importance
(visibility)
Time
the current and near future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them
Horizon 1:
looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its exact form is not yet clear. We have to look harder to find the signals - but trends are beginning to emerge
Horizon 2:
the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult separate signals from background noise.
Horizon 3:
The lens of now
The journey Purpose and context Senior sponsor Gathering evidence Analysis Communication Decision support
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Combatting short-termism
In order to combat the short-term nature of the political cycle, there is a need for horizon scanning to be embedded into the policy making process
UK House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee 2006
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The UK Horizon Scanning Centre - Aims
Strategic context Synergy Capacity building WIST
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UK Horizon Scanning Centre – Products
Sigma & Delta scans Projects (S&T trends, ATF, Identity
management) Strategic Futures Coaching Strategic Futures Networking (FAN Club)
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Analytical toolkit Systems mapping Scenarios Wind-tunnelling Force field analysis
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Be realistic…
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Questions?
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AGENDA
9.30 What is strategic futures analysis?
10.00 Introduction to scenario planning
10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education?
11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education
11.30 Coffee
Stories that describe how the world might look in the future what’s different from today what we need to do to be successful
Based on an analysis of what’s driving change
Allow critical uncertainties and predetermined elements to be separated
Not predictions or forecasts
Help decision makers imagine and manage the future better identify what’s in their control identify what isn’t identify what needs to change to ensure future success
Simplify some of the apparent complexity in the world
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Scenarios…?
Sector EnvironmentSector Environment
internal
environment
Contextual EnvironmentContextual Environment
Driving Forces
Driving Forces
Technological
Economic
Environmental
Political
Societal
Building Scenarios…?
Agree purpose,outcomes and scale
Agree purpose,outcomes and scale
Identify participantsIdentify participants
Interviews andnatural agendaInterviews andnatural agenda
Identify importantchange drivers
Identify importantchange drivers
Identify critical uncertaintiesand predetermined elements
Identify critical uncertaintiesand predetermined elements
Define the scenariospace
Define the scenariospace
Outline the scenarionarratives
Outline the scenarionarratives
Detail the scenarionarratives
Detail the scenarionarratives
Communicate thescenarios
Communicate thescenarios
Pre-workshopPre-workshop
WorkshopWorkshop
Post workshopPost workshop
Desk
research em
erging tren
ds and issues
Desk
research em
erging tren
ds and issues
Agree purpose,outcomes and scale
Agree purpose,outcomes and scale
Identify participantsIdentify participants
Interviews andnatural agendaInterviews andnatural agenda
Identify importantchange drivers
Identify importantchange drivers
Identify critical uncertaintiesand predetermined elements
Identify critical uncertaintiesand predetermined elements
Define the scenariospace
Define the scenariospace
Outline the scenarionarratives
Outline the scenarionarratives
Detail the scenarionarratives
Detail the scenarionarratives
Communicate thescenarios
Communicate thescenarios
Pre-workshopPre-workshop
WorkshopWorkshop
Post workshopPost workshop
Desk
research em
erging tren
ds and issues
Desk
research em
erging tren
ds and issues
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AGENDA
9.30 What is strategic futures analysis?
10.00 Introduction to scenario planning
10.15 Presentation and discussion: What’s driving change in higher education?
11.00 Group activity: Critical uncertainties for the future of higher education
11.30 Coffee
Sources… Leadership Foundation scenario workshops Strategic Priorities for the UK (PMSU) Long Term Opportunities and Challenges for the UK
(HMT) The Futures Project (Scottish Executive) Empirical observation
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An empowered ageing
population…and an ageing crisis
Under 20s declining in the UK
Rising expectatio
ns
Rising attainment
Emergence of the ethical economyMore single
households
Global economic migration
Societal
…and increasing
in developing economies
A widening gender gap
Mobile computing
Lots of informatio
n
Wireless cities
Technological Changing work and work places
Changing decision making
Changing business modelsRise of
the technologi
cally superior learner
Skype
BlogsYou Tube
AIM
Second Life
MySpace
The economics
of scarcity or of
plenty?
Mobile investment
Globalisation
Labour mobility
Increasing value of knowledge
Importance of soft skills
China
Open source and distribute
d manufactur
ing
Economic
End of Doha?
…and AmericaRising
dependency ratio Slow or
rapid transition
to retirement
Co-opetition
Oil depletion Water Wars
Carbon neutral
consumption
Pressure to halt global warming
Growth within
environmental
limits?
Quest for sustainabi
lity
Environmental
Carbon credits?
Right to mobility?
Biofuels?
Evolution of the EU
Contract between state and citizen
e-Democracy
Self improving public services
Nanny state or light touch?
Single Issue
everything
Policy divergence
since devolution
Rise of non state actors
Step change in customer care
Political
Culture change
Public service
reform and competitiv
eness
Competing demands
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FINAL DISCUSSION
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Understanding context of strategic futures analysis
Gathering evidence Analysis tools Using the output to improve strategy
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Building scenarios
Key drivers of change Uncertainties Select key variables Write the stories
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Using scenarios
Create dialogue Identify research goals Identify choices Define strategy
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Continue the futures journey!Resources:
Sigma scan: www.sigmascan.org
Delta scan: www.deltascan.org
UK Horizon scanning centre :
www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/index.html
Strategic futures analysis tool-kit :
www.foresight.gov.uk/HORIZON_SCANNING_CENTRE/Good_Practice/Toolkit/Toolkit.html
UK Department for Transport scenario planning tool-kit (produced by Waverley Management consultants):
www.dft.gov.uk/pgr/scienceresearch/futures/secsceniss/?version=1