Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Future of Hotelsand Irish Hospitality Industry

ALL      BIG      TRENDS      ARE      RELATED

What  will  Irish  Hotel  Industry  look  like  in  2020  ?

Downturn  is  (almost)  history  but  customers  have  CHANGED

Tourism in Ireland EU 7bn

Around 200,000 jobs - 4.5% of GDP50,000 in hotels and guest houses

11% of all workers in Ireland

Visitors to Ireland -

The Gathering 2013Overseas visitors up 7%

US visitors up 15%

265,000 extra visitors was huge achievement in difficult economic situation

6,000 extra hotel beds in boom- only 1500 lost in last 3-4 years

- 70% bed nights are Irish customers

Hotel Occupancy and Rates will continue to recover

Hotel Occupancy and Rates will continue to recover

Experiences Matter Most

Strategies often overtaken by eventsWorld can change faster than you can hold a board meeting

You need more than

one strategy to grow your

hotel business

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GLOBAL ECONOMY

WILL GROW 2014-2020

WGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

US  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

EU  GDP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)  

Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

Republic of Ireland boom was fed by low Euro interest rates

Low borrowing costs, high inflation, fixed exchange rate

2% inflation target likely to be discarded

•

£  375bn

$2.3  trillion  US  +  $65bn  per  month

Euro  to  Pound  -­‐  managing  risk  

>40%  WDP  by  2015� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity

$3.4  trillion  

Reserves  

300  million  move  to  ciSes  in  ChinaRapidly  growing  middle  class  =  travellers

FUTURE of TRAVEL will

be DRIVEN by

EMOTION and desire for EXPERIENCE

• Mother changed mind re banking online / mobile - in 3 hours, leapt 30 years

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“Great  hotel  guest  experiences”    

Mystery  Shopping    

80%  lost  in  seconds  

Hotels,  conference  centres  and  travel  agents  

need  to  respond  instantly  to  e-­‐mail

Online  travel  revoluSon

               What  can  hotel  call-­‐centre  see  ?

LEISUREGROWTHMARKETS

People  Eat  Out  More  

Breaks  –  Stress-­‐Busters• Luxury and pleasure• Impulse buying • Special treats• Many more short city-

breaks – at all times of year

• Second main holidays / adventure / activity eg winter sun

5%  in  UK  will  take  an  adventure  break  in  2014    

Tailor  made  holidays  /  mulS-­‐desSnaSon  luxury

City  breaks  now  as  popular  as  beach  holidays  for  UK  residents

Stag  weekend  /  Hen  weekendAverage  UK  15-­‐24  year  old  took  5  breaks  last  year

21,000 marriages a year in Irelandand global trend is more elaborate

• 5000 brides confetti.co.ukEU 600 million

Desire  to  be  Different    

Memories  and  Moments

BUSINESSGROWTHMARKETS

68,000 overseas visitors to Dublin conferences in 2013Ireland events market EU100m a year

Making  it  more  Personal  

Demand  for  unusual  venues  is  growing

Business mixed with Leisure• 33%  of  tourism  spending  in  London  is  by  business  travellers

OLDER GUESTS GROWTH MARKET

1 billion over 60 year olds in 10 years

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce singlegreat-grand childin some nations

75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by  those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women

             Rest  -­‐  Reading  

IMPACTOF ONLINEON HOTELS

IN 2014

Would recommend you to a friend ?

"Perfection!,"  TripAdvisor Member, FEb 17, 2014 This was a most beautiful Paris hotel. Delightful, all perfect. We will stay again v soon. "Terrible! TripAdvisor Member, Jan 23, 2014 Terrible place, rats, dirty, noisy - sick with food poisoning for 2 weeks. Nearly died.

1  trillion  pages                  a  month

1 Billionaccounts

e-­‐commerce  hits  $1.5  trillion  201412%  all  UK  retail

Huge growth aggregators

Hotels and conference centres need to respond instantly to e-mail enquiries

PriceTransparency

Italy:  58%  increase  in  aggregator  sales  of  insurance  in  first  6  

months  of  2013  v  2012

2014  ruling  by  Office  of  Fair  Trading  allows  Online  Travel  Agents  to  discount  hotel  rooms,  paid  out  of  their  own  margins

Hotel  bookedon  arrival  in  city

Why  can’t  I  find  a  place  to  stay?

LocaSon  MarkeSngis  next

BIG  THING

• Zettabyte = 1024 ExabytesExabyte = 1024 PetabytesPetabyte = 1024 TerabytesTerabytes = 1024 Gigabytes

BIGData

• Home• Work• Online• Offline• Sales• Entertain• Phone• Mobile• Chat• Mobile

KNOW YOURCUSTOMER

Travel and RoomPreferences

HOW TO AMAZE YOUR

GUESTS

Night Flight or Day Flight Going out or coming home? – work, food, drink,

chat, party, unwind, dark, quiet, sleep, leave

Best  for  Business  ?Out  /  Back  

100

�Click to edit Master text styles

RoomKey

Junk but no iron

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Treat every customer as if a member of your own family or a

friend eg web / phone

The  only  hotel  value  worth  having  

Wonderful  Memories

RESOURCES>500 videos of Keynoteshttp://www.youtube.com/pjvdixon

Global Trends Website:http://www.globalchange.com