Richard de CaniDirector of Transport Strategy &

PlanningTransport for London

London’s context – key trends over last decade

• Growing demand for travel. 8% more pop, 5% more jobs, 13% more journey-stages.

• At the same time a shift from private to pubic transport. 7% net shift in mode share.

• Increasing congestion on the road and PT networks.• Public transport service provision and reliability at or close to ‘best ever’

levels.• Many other achievements including fleet and infrastructure renewal,

improvements to road safety and crime on the transport networks.• Policies such as Congestion Charging, Low Emission Zone, Barclays

Cycle Hire etc. now ‘mainstream’.• Looking to the future some major innovations (both infrastructure and

policy) that can be expected to change the face of travel further.

Growth in Travel Demand

London vs rest of GB

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Inner London Outer London Metropolitan Areas Large Urban Areas (over 250,000 people)

Index of people entering central London in the AM peak by mode

Falling road traffic volumes

Increased PT supply & demand - Bus

Increased PT supply & demand - Underground

The evolution of the DLR network

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Passenger kilometresJourney stages

Beckton extension opens

Lewisham extension opens

CityAirport extension opens

WoolwichArsenal extension opens

Profile of Trips in London

Looking to 2031: predicted growth

By 2031, London’s population is forecast to grow by 1.3 million

Employment is forecast to increase by 750,000 jobs

Increased trips (from 2008 base):30% PT15% total

3m extra trips per day by 2031(27m from 24m today)

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London is growing...every five years, one million more trips / day

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London is growing...every five years, one million more trips / day

London’s transport geography extends well beyond the GLA boundary

Continued Mode shift is the best way to achieve sustainable growth

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Mode share

The Mayor seeks an increase in the mode share of walking, cycling and public transport

24 m trips per day

27 m trips per day

London’s key places for growth

Central Activities Zone (CAZ) and Town Centres

Employment density

London’s key places for growth

Opportunity Areas

Key places: Opportunity Areas for major development

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Lea Valley

Thames GatewayWestern Arc

Brent Cross / Cricklewood

Heathrow

Croydon

London’s key places for growth

Strategic Industrial Locations

Current Transport Investment Supports this Growth

•National rail upgrades on radial routes to provide capacity into central London

•Tube upgrade to increase capacity across the whole network

•DLR/Jubilee and Overground enhancements to support growth in east London

Station Enhancements

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Tube Upgrades

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National Rail enhancements

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Crossrail will serve Opportunity Areas across London

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Including enabling Docklands to reach their economic potential

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The new London Overground network serves many of London’s Opportunity Areas...

About 20% of London’s population is within 1 km of the Overground network

Taking all TfL and national rail committed schemes in to account, access to employment will be significantly improved across London

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Before committed investment programme

Taking all committed schemes in to account, access to employment will be significantly improved across London

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Aftercommitted investment programme

London’s growth means 1m more trips a day by 2016

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24.5m

25.9m

26.8m 28.6m2007 2016 2021 2031

Every five years, an extra one million trips in London are added

...with strong pressures on public transport, cycling and walking...

...as well as up to 30% more road freight and servicing trips

...so increasing pressures on roadspace & conflicts between users/usesmost acutely freight and cycling

Population & employment are growing

Equivalent to adding city the size of Birmingham to London over 20 years

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Other rail investment is also needed in the medium term...

...and in the longer term with more DLR and tram improvements as well

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In the longer term, Crossrail 2 is vital to supporting London’s development

Objectives• Support growth and

regeneration• Alleviate crowding,

especially on Victoria, Piccadilly and Northern lines

• Improve passenger dispersal from National Rail termini including HS2

• Improve connectivity

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But across London, road congestion is hampering development and will get worse as London grows

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Delaying journeys

Making deliveries difficult

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Journey times could increase by over 30% on some corridors

London’s growth is of such a scale that some additional road space is required to accommodate growth in movements

This is needed to accommodate an increase in demand for road space from cars, servicing & deliveries traffic, buses and cyclists

While local roads within Opportunity Areas could be focussed on buses, cycling and walking, and essential deliveries

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Further interventions needed to meet CO2 reduction target and Air Quality limits

Summary

• London has successfully captured modal shift away from private transport to public transport & walking/cycling

• To continue this trend in a growth context requires sustained investment in the transport network - particularly rail/bus capacity

• Growth is spread across London but concentrated in particular locations – this will require targeted responses and investments

• Increased demand for use of road space (not just by cars – but servicing/cycles) will mean more road space is required in some locations to support growth

• This has to be delivered in the context of meeting the CO2 reduction targets and air quality limits

• Future funding context challenging –new methods of funding and delivering infrastructure have to be considered