Dr Patrick Dixon Chairman Global Change Ltd

Future of Retail How customers are changing

帕特里克▪迪克森 Global Change Ltd 主席

Global  Outlook  -­‐    and  Bulgaria  Retail

• Global economy never stopped growingWGP  1980-­‐2013  (%,constant  prices)

Bulgaria  GDP  1980-­‐2013+  

• Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles

• Click  to  edit  Master  text  styles

Vietnam  GDP  1985-­‐2011  

>40% WDP by 2015 Asia powering growth

� IMF - adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity

•

$2.3  trillion  US  +  $85bn  per  month

Expect  INFLATION  

$3.4  trillion  

Reserves  

Text

One word will drive Future

Future retail is about

EMOTION

Customer

Focus

Time  Savers

22

SMARTCall-­‐Centres

Most  call-­‐centresslow,  blind  and  

deaf(single  screen  -­‐  no  social  media)

 

Mega  Chains

Expect  rapid  growth  of  large  retail  chains  in  Bulgaria  -­‐  new  outlets

Expect  35%  growth  in  consumer  electronics  2013-­‐2017  in  Bulgaria

HUGEMALLS

Expect  rapid  growth  of  large  Shopping  Malls  in  Bulgaria

Ultra  Premium

And  decline  of  smaller  shops  in  tradi]onal  streets

LeisureRetailing

Retail  Theatre  

Niche  Trader

BrandBusters

Brandsin  Brands  

RETAILJourneys

Guide  the  Experience

SELFSERVICE

OlderBuyers  

Europe Dying 4 couples to produce single great-grand child

1 in 3 Bulgarians over 65 by 2050Only 50% population working ageFastest rate of ageing in the world

75%  of  all  US  and  UK  wealth  owned  by  those  over  65  -­‐  mostly  women

OlderMoney

             Rest  -­‐  Reading  

OnlineBoom

e-­‐commerce  hit  $1  trillion  in  2012  e-­‐marketer  

Bulgaria  Greece  RomaniaInternet  Use1990-­‐201281% of 16-24 year olds use web >2 times a week

8% of 65-74 year olds use the web9% population made internet purchases in 2012

Increase of 2.5% in 12 months

What  people  in  Bulgaria  buy  online1. Clothes/sports goods: 64%2. Travel and holiday accommodation: 31%3. Books/magazines/newspapers or e-learning material: 26%4. Household goods: 21%5. Tickets for events: 15%6. Food or groceries: 11%7. Electronic equipment: 11%8. Computer/software and upgrades (including games): 7%9. Films/music: 7% 10. Computer hardware: 4%11. Shares/financial services/insurance: 1%

Price  Comparison

Italy:  58%  increase  in  aggregator  sales  of  policies  in  first  6  

months  of  2013  v  2012

MobileMarke]ng

•

TabletsBoom

MobileMORE THAN A CHANNEL

Bulgaria Smartphone sales up 24% in 20121 billion smartphone sales in 2013 globally

87

Loca]on  Marke]ngis  next

BIG  THING

From  Invasive  to  Insight  

Hype  toRevela]on

Mobile“On-time, anyhow, anywhere”

Reduce customer support costsBoost cross-sell / up-sell (works well)Easier policy changes and renewals

Policy alerts / progress on claimsIntegrated product offersFusion with social media

33%  in  UK  don’t  watch  live  TV

InformationRevelation

1  trillionpages  

a  month

Most  web  buyers  now  influenced  by  social  media

"Perfection!, Wonderful hotel. Good value, beautiful views.“

Madrid May 20, 2013

This was the most beautiful hotel. Clean, friendly and good value.

“Worst hotel I have ever been in. Should be closed down.“

Paris April 11, 2013

NEVER stay in this terrible place. Rats, insects, dirty. Many guests got sick.

74  million  users  a  month

MobilePayment

106

Wireless  Payment  Cash  costs  EU60bn  pa

>  200  million  mobile  payments>  70%  in  Africa    >  $160bn  

108

2m  businesses  use  SQUARE  in  US

Square  Daily  Volumes    soon  handling  7000  Starbucks  outlets  

• Kenya  -­‐  17m  customers• $9bn  pa  -­‐  >33%  GDP

•

1.7bn  users  unbanked

113

• In UK alone....• Transactions >$1trillion pa • Credit card debt >$100bn• Average card interest rate

16%• 2% commissions worth $18bn

Payments Doorway

Free mobile devicescalls / web / TV / games / payHigher income model

2010                                                  2013                                  2015                                                    

TelcoBanks

FusionOn-­‐Off  line

SALESOnline / physical

worlds become oneBuy online - deliver to store.

Buy store - deliver at home. Go to store, research and order

online etc.

Home    Delivery

Over  4000  road  hauliers  in  EU

SPEEDto  Market  

30  minutes  to  pick,  pack  and  send

30  minutes  to  pick,  pack  and  send

WirelessWarehousing

Gold  standard:10am  orders  for  3pm  Delivery

10am orders for 3pm Delivery

Internet of Things

A6  –  85  door  components50,000  product  combinaCons

1.5m components in supply chain

BIGDATA

90% all global data generated in last 2 years

Big  Data

Big Data means shift from

Marketing to Creative Advice

• Home• Work• Online• Offline• Sales• Entertain• Phone• Mobile• Chat

ONECUSTOMER

•Individuals•Family•Community•Wide World

Bejer  Retail  Future

Working  Together