Date post: | 06-Aug-2015 |
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The Future of Trade Insights from Discussions Building on an Ini4al Perspec4ve by Gautam Sashi=al | CEO | DMCC
Context The ini4al perspec4ve on the Future of Trade kicked off the
Future Agenda 2.0 discussions. This updated summary includes addi4ons from events to date to be further challenged, built upon and enhanced.
Ini4al Perspec4ves Q1 2015
Global Discussions Q1/2 2015
Insight Synthesis Q3 2015
Sharing Output Q4 2015
A New Order? We are witnessing the transi4on to a new order: New na4onal interests,
new trading routes, new products / services are all emerging. How to ensure the development of trade in this environment will be key to success.
New Trading Routes The next decade will see the post-‐war routes eclipsed by the power of the
Indian Ocean region with new port construc4on plus proposed railways from coast-‐to-‐coast across South America showing the shape of things to come.
Influence of Key Ci>es As they grow ci4es become increasingly influen4al in their own right. OZen centres for innova4on, their reach stretches far beyond the confines of na4onal boundaries as they posi4on themselves as centres of excellence.
Last Mile Efficiency The benefits to be gained from bringing the same level of efficiency to the last mile as there is to the first thousand is a=rac4ng a=en4on: There will be more focus on reducing inefficiencies around the final part of delivery.
Automated Trucks Autonomous and driverless trucks are now star4ng to have impact. The vision of long-‐distance platoons of trucks all running on intelligent highways without
drivers has been a topic for some years... but the reality is not far away.
Rising Cyber-‐crime Cyberspace is about to undergo yet another massive change as the
Internet of Things connects billions of new devices making cyber-‐crime even more challenging to prevent and control.
Bribery and Corrup>on Non-‐state actors, that have no stake in the waterways, are more likely to disrupt them. More prosaically, roadside checkpoints cause delays but in addi4on they are oZen collec4on points for bribes and “safety money”.
Global vs. Bilateral Agreements A key ques4on for the next decade will be whether we will be able to achieve true global agreements, or will bilateral trade agreements remain the way by which na4ons can be=er manage and control economic influence?
Growth of Special Economic Zones Although some see limits to their applica4on, going forward Special
Economic Zones are expected to play a con4nued major role in providing the facili4es for accelera4ng change and improving trade efficiency.
The Climate Change Challenge Climate change can no longer be ignored. While many are now looking at improving the resilience of their facili4es to more extreme weather, how many will also seek to adapt to the new world of 4C of global warming?
The Talent Challenge As the global workforce becomes more mobile, how will organisa4ons
a=ract and retain top talent and how will governments ensure they provide them with the relevant educa4on that will allow economies to thrive?
A Data Marketplace Data is a currency, it has a value and a price, and therefore requires a market place. An ecosystem for trading data is emerging and anything
that is informa4on is represented in a new data marketplace.
Cross-‐Border Commerce Cross-‐border commerce is growing faster than domes4c commerce and so will become increasingly important and influen4al. Cross-‐border flow of goods,
services and finance could increase threefold to $85 trillion by 2025.
Conscious Stewards We are more aware of the consequences of our ac4ons: There is a sense of stewardship of the world -‐ not only in how we manage our home, but also in how we live in our ecosystem. We start to behave as conscious stewards.
Fair Compensa>on Fairer prices for farmers, food producers and consumers are driven by the elimina4on of subsidies, the introduc4on of sustainability accoun4ng into the corporate P&L and increased transparency and traceability of supply.
Infec>ous Diseases Post-‐Ebola The world prepares for infec4ous disease outbreaks with renewed vigor. There is increased prepara4on and coordina4on among both public and provider stakeholders and greater investments in early warning systems.
Seamless Ubiquitous Payments The ability to ‘transact anywhere’ with integrated, sophis4cated
authen4ca4on such as biometrics increases: More contactless technology and a convergence of standards, enable global informa4on exchanges.
Emerging Norms Influen4al developing economies drive new rules and prac4ces where individuals and organisa4ons design for risk and vola4lity -‐ and are no longer limited by legacy business models and infrastructure.
Global vs. Local Technology is by its very nature global and data does not respect na4onal
boundaries. Can na4on states con4nue to set the rules or will tension in global interoperability drive us to design for global standards but with localised use?
Rising Cyber Security Greater interconnec4vity and the Internet of Things creates new
vulnerabili4es for governments and corpora4ons -‐ as the unscrupulous and the criminal increasingly seek to exploit weakness and destroy systems.
Simplified Last Mile Delivery Seamless, integrated and shared last-‐mile delivery will replace
inefficient compe44on and duplica4on of goods distribu4on: Efficiency in moving things will be as important as efficiency in moving people.
The Funding Challenge In austere financial 4mes there is a significant challenge for
governments being able to fund the maintenance of the exis4ng transport system and investment in new infrastructure.
Unpredictable Growth In some countries, economies struggle to maintain growth as increased produc4vity and entrepreneurship is limited by fluctua4ng regula4on
and the challenge of running a free market economy.
Peak Globalisa>on Globalisa4on is reaching its limits. Wages in export sectors in both China and
India are now rela4vely high and companies are moving their produc4on closer to their markets, wan4ng to be able to respond more flexibly to demand.
Skill Concentra>ons The growth of the nomadic global elite ci4zenship accelerates the
concentra4on of the high-‐skill / high-‐reward opportuni4es within a select group of globally-‐connected ci4zens, who move ahead of the urban pack.
Consumer-‐Driven Trade A new trade order leaves behind the monolithic, legacy ins4tu4ons of the post-‐war era: Trade is empowered from the bo=om-‐up, with conscious ci4zenship driving more nimble self-‐regula4on and a reduc4on of tariffs.
Appropriate Regula>on More appropriate regula4on drives hot-‐spots of trade growth through special economic zones and free-‐zones that result in the movement of business, people and wealth. Protec4onist regimes lose out as a result.
New Exchange and Distribu>on Models Connected consumers co-‐create new forms of exchange and distribu4on, which are sensi4ve to cultural differences and oZen local in nature. This reduces waste and maintains the individuality and variety of products.
Free-‐trade Zones “In-‐a-‐Box” Free-‐trade zones rise in popularity and are replicated globally.
As they help to enable economic growth and security, even in challenging environments, commercial success comes as they expand and merge.
Supply Webs Not Chains The shiZ from centralised produc4on to decentralised manufacturing drives many to take a ‘smaller and distributed’ approach: Global supply chains are replaced by more regional, consumer-‐orientated supply webs and networks.
Catering for the Displaced Climate change drives migra4on, which in turn creates new markets where
consumer needs are based on survival. There is more benefit in providing low cost goods suppor4ng a basic lifestyle rather than aspira4onal luxury.
Sleeping Eagle -‐ Waking Dragon China uses economic might and soZ diplomacy to reshape the world order, usurp the dollar and dominate world trade. As a result migra4on to Asia
increases, changing established market places. Africa will suffer as a result.
Interna>onal Security – a Public / Private Partnership? Increasing global unrest and rising interna4onal fundamentalism challenge trade routes and places of produc4on. Corporates enhance government security to protect assets and maintain safe working environments.
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