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Future of Voter Decision-making Hanna Willman-Iivarinen
Future of Voter Decision-making
Hanna Willman-Iivarinen
Background
Huge Dissertation Project 2005-
2019: Modelling Consumer
Decision-Making
My own company Miratio 2011
Spin-Off: Research about Voter decision-making -Vaalimuusa 2014-
Spin-Off: Research and forthcoming book about Ice Hockey Referee decision-making 2018-2019
My research about voting
Databank about voter
decisionmaking> 312 variables
European Parliament 2014
Finnish Parliament 2015
Municipal Election 2017
Finnish Presidential 2018
European Parliament 2019
Databank about the effect of
election advertising
YouTube
Event marketing
Newspaper ads
Opinion writing
Photos and slogans
The effect of…
The election of…
Co
rrel
atio
ns
Surv
eys
INTRODUCTION
Why people vote
Proportionsare based on Vaalimuusa databank of Finnishvoters 2014-2019
How voters’ decide?
Proportions are basedon Vaalimuusa databank of Finnishvoters 2014-2019
How voters’ decide?
Voting adviceapplications, Polls, recommendations
”Looks nice””Feels good”
Thinking and comparingcarefully using a lot of timeand effort
Best according one principle…Deleting all candidates, who…
WHAT IS CHANGING
Top 6 major changes based on data
https://infogram.com/future-of-voter-decisions_vaalimuusa2019-1h7k23j0pm8g4xr?live
1. Candidate shopping
2.Voting as participation and social fun
3. Busy and impatient voters
4. Information
bubbles
5. Complicated problems in society: Voters of European Parliament Election 2019 worried about:
6. Outsourcing decision-making
HOW DO THE CHANGES AFFECT
DECISION MAKING
The effect on decision-making
New voter types
THE EFFECT ON DEMOCRACY
The effect on democracy
THE EFFECT ON ELECTION
OUTCOME
Voter types and election outcomeCandidate
shopping: Centre, Democrats,
Populists
Participation and social fun: All
parties
Busy voters: Centre, Populists
Worried voters: Democrats, Greens, Left
Living in information
bubble: All parties
Outsourcing votingto VAA: Greens
Voting as a duty: Coalition
Expressing a view: Greens,
Left
Values based: Left
My intrests comes first:
Populists
Voting to influence: Coalition
Voter types and party choices:
correlations
National Coalition
Party
Centre Party (Farmers
etc)
The Social Democratic
Party of Finland
The Greens of Finland
Left Alliance of
Finland
The Finns (Populistic
party)
Candidate shopping 0,06 0,22 0,11 -0,08 -0,07 0,17
Participation and social fun 0,02 -0,03 0,01 0,01 0,05 -0,08
Busy voters 0,00 0,10 0,06 -0,04 -0,07 0,11
Worried voters 0,00 -0,03 0,10 0,19 0,16 -0,14
Living in information bubble 0,02 0,05 -0,06 0,06 -0,06 0,03
Outsourcing voting to VAA 0,02 0,02 0,01 0,17 0,02 -0,03
Voting as a duty 0,11 0,02 -0,01 -0,09 -0,03 -0,04
Expressing a view -0,08 -0,14 -0,04 0,08 0,13 -0,07
Values based 0,04 -0,21 -0,10 0,06 0,09 -0,16
My intrests comes first 0,03 0,04 0,06 -0,06 0,01 0,08
Voting to influence 0,12 -0,01 0,00 -0,06 -0,02 -0,06
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
https://infogram.com/future-of-voter-decisions_vaalimuusa2019-1h7k23j0pm8g4xr?live
How do the changes affect DMDecision-Making
Candidate shopping Voters choose the candidate carefully by deliberation or heuristic method. However, the choice of party is irrelevant.
Voting as participation
The decision is not deliberated. Can be intuitive or outsourced.
Busy voters The decision is not deliberated. Can be intuitive or outsourced
Information bubble No matter how carefully the decision is made, the result can be rather random
Complicated problems
Can be either deliberated carefully or intuitive/ outsourced
Outsourcing decision-making
The decision-making is outsourced and the results is rather random
Human resources which affect
voter behaviour
Intellectual capital (education, sense
of history)
Empathy, self-interest, values
Social capital
Available time and energy
Time style (living in present vs.
Planning the suture etc).
Intellectual capital (education, sense
of history)
Empathy, self-interest, values
Social capital
Available time and energy
Time style (living in present vs.
Planning the suture etc).
What affects voter decision-
making
Motives
Resources
Information
Voter Decision-Making
