The  Future  of  Work      Insights  from  Discussions  Building  on  an  Ini4al  Perspec4ve  by:    Andrew  Curry  |  Director,  Global  Knowledge  Lead  |  The  Futures  Company  

Context  The  ini4al  perspec4ve  on  the  Future  of  Work  kicked  off  the    

Future  Agenda  2.0  global  discussions  taking  place  through  2015.    This  summary  builds  on  the  ini4al  view  and  is  updated  as  we  progress.  

Ini4al  Perspec4ves  Q4  2014  

Global  Discussions  Q1/2  2015  

Insight  Synthesis  Q3  2015  

Sharing    Output  Q4  2015  

The  Global  Challenge  The  global  challenge  of  work  is  two-­‐fold.  First,  will  automa4on,  in  its    various  forms,  destroy  jobs?  And  second,  even  if  not,  will  workers    

be  paid  enough  to  sustain  the  global  economic  system?  

Manufacturing  vs.  Services  One  of  the  reasons  for  the  boom  in  living  standards  in  the  C20th  was  because  of  the  long  boom  in  manufacturing,  the  dominant  economic  trend  for  much  of  the  century.  Produc4vity  growth  tends  to  fall  as  services  become  dominant.  

Peak  Globalisa=on  Globalisa4on  is  reaching  its  limits.  Wages  in  export  sectors  in  both  China  and  

India  are  now  rela4vely  high  and  companies  are  moving  their  produc4on  closer  to  their  markets,  wan4ng  to  be  able  to  respond  more  flexibly  to  demand.    

Posi=ve  Immigra=on  Economists  agree  that  immigra4on  is  good  for  economies.  Migrants  tend  to  be  

younger,  more  enterprising,  and  economically  ac4ve,  and  their  effect  on  wages,  economic  growth  and  tax  contribu4ons  is  almost  completely  posi4ve.  

Technology  Takeover  There  is  a  widespread  fear  that  the  rise  of  robots  -­‐  or  more  exactly,  a  

combina4on  of  compu4ng  power,  algorithms  and  robo4cs  -­‐  will  destroy    the  labour  market,  even,  possibly,  the  very  idea  of  labour  value.  

Good  Jobs  Companies  out-­‐perform  through  a  combina4on  of  be[er  wages,  investment    in  training,  and  appropriate  technological  investment  to  support  staff…  High  value  work  benefits  individuals,  businesses,  as  well  as  society  as  a  whole.  

External  Drivers    Much  of  the  labor  market  woes  of  the  past  decade  are  down  to  the    

financial  crisis,  reduced  investment  and  the  impact  of  globalisa4on.  Many  middle-­‐skill  jobs  will  prove  more  resistant  to  unbundling  than  adver4sed.  

Post  Modern  Workplaces  We  are  on  the  cusp  of  a  transi4on  to  a  world  where,  half  of  the  popula4ons    

of  Europe  and  the  United  States  subscribe  to  post-­‐modern  values  of    autonomy  and  diversity.  The  workplace  will  not  escape  this  trend.    

Perfect  Storm  The  explana4on  that  seems  best  to  fit  present  state  of  work  is  that  it  has  been  through  a  “perfect  storm”  of  a  globalised  workforce,  the  deskilling  of  rou4ne  

work  and  the  shib  of  these  workers  into  manual  or  service  work.    

Living  Wage  Un4l  very  recently,  the  idea  of  a  basic  income,  a  minimum  sum  paid  to  all  people  regardless  of  their  work  status,  was  right  at  the  fringe  of  poli4cal  

discourse.  But  it  has  been  moving  rapidly  towards  the  mainstream.    

Less  is  Not  More  Increased  automa4on  allows  us  to  produce  more  with  less,    

decoupling  the  link  between  wages  and  produc4vity.  Many  na4onal    policies  have  to  address  an  increasingly  under  employed  workforce.  

Smart  Mindfulness  We  take  more  care  of  our  smartphones  than  we  do  of  ourselves.    

Many  corpora4ons  adopt  new  technology  to  help  workers  manage  stress    and  remain  both  physically  and  mentally  fit  and  produc4ve.    

Over-­‐=red  and  Over-­‐worked  Our  defini4on  of  success  and  the  adop4on  of  an  always-­‐connected  work-­‐life  have  made  the  millennial  genera4on  more  stressed  and  over-­‐4red  than  any  

other.  The  high-­‐achievers  will  con4nue  to  pay  a  high  price  for  success.    

Hollowing  Out  the  Professions  Technology  is  challenging  the  white-­‐collar  worker  and  automa4ng  both    middle  and  high-­‐end  jobs.  The  future  will  see  fewer  accountants,  lawyers    and  doctors  and  a  hollowing  out  of  the  previously  ‘safe’  professions.  

Skill  Concentra=ons  The  growth  of  the  nomadic  global  elite  ci4zenship  accelerates  the  

concentra4on  of  the  high-­‐skill  /  high-­‐reward  opportuni4es  within  a  select    group  of  globally-­‐connected  ci4zens,  who  move  ahead  of  the  urban  pack.  

Suppor=ng  the  Ageing  Workforce  As  major  economies  suffer  from  increasing  dependency  ra4os,  the  challenge    of  suppor4ng  an  increasingly  older  workforce  demands  rethinking  of  life-­‐long  

learning  and  broader  acceptance  of  the  cost  of  part-­‐4me  flexible  jobs.  

Wi-­‐fi  Global  Nomads  For  some  in  the  knowledge  economy  the  poten4al  for  con4nuous  travel,  

blended  with  part-­‐4me  work,  is  focused  on  ‘wi-­‐fi  hopping’for  regular  access    to  high-­‐speed  connec4vity  -­‐  no  ma[er  where  in  the  world  they  are.  

Two-­‐Way  Trust  An  increase  in  trust  between  employees  and  employers  builds    

greater  alignment  and  enables  democra4sa4on  of  the  workplace,    more  flexible  ways  of  working  and  more  effec4ve  organisa4ons.  

Surplus  People  We  need  to  make  posi4ve  choices  to  avoid  a  world  of  increased  

 automa4on  with  surplus  people  seeking  employment  and    greater  economic  exploita4on  of  those  in  work.  

Making  Work  Work  (for  People  and  Work)    We  will  see  a  shib  in  priority  from  ‘money  ma[ers’  to  ‘meaning  ma[ers’.    

This  will  lead  to  the  emergence  of  community  and  wellbeing    managers  in  organisa4ons  and  new  ways  to  measure  success.  

Lower  Growth  Economy  Lower  expecta4ons  for  economic  growth  in  many  regions  will  see    greater  use  of  robots  to  increase  produc4vity,  changing  spending    

pa[erns  and  a  rise  in  the  sharing  economy.    

Inequality  Dilemma  The  inequality  dichotomy  in  developing  countries  con4nues  to  expand,  beyond  just  wealth  and  opportunity:  Gender,  race  and  skills  gaps  all  increase  and,  even  

as  some  of  the  poorest  see  improvements,  the  wealthy  pull  further  away.  

African  Spring  Ineffec4ve  governance  encourages  a  disaffected  popula4on  to  demand  new  

poli4cal  leaders  who  put  the  needs  of  the  public  before  their  own:  Voices  from  the  middle  and  wealthy  classes  ini4ate  necessary  system  change  themselves.  

Skills  Flight  vs.  Social  Isola=on    Economic  migrants  to  move  to  regional  economic  centres  of  excellence.  More  fragmented,  imbalanced  socie4es  are  leb  behind,  with  surplus  low-­‐skilled  

labour,  falling  wages  and  a  rise  in  poli4cal  isola4on  and  aggression.  

Private  Investment  in  State  Infrastructure  Con4nued  decline  of  trust  in  Governments  leads  to  more  private  capital    

filling  the  gaps  leb  by  inadequate  governance  and  inappropriate  investment.  This  includes  more  interven4ons  in  energy,  transport  and  educa4on.    

Back  to  the  Village  In  developing  markets,  increased  societal  fragmenta4on,  off-­‐grid  living  and  a  growing  disenchantment  with  the  inefficiency  of  the  status  quo  leads  to  a  return  to  community  ‘village’  lifestyle  where  local  independence  reigns.  

21st  Century  Organisa=ons  The  emerging  organisa4on  feels  very  different  from  c20th  companies  -­‐  collabora4ve,  crowd-­‐funded,  fla[er,  human-­‐focused,  hyper-­‐specialised,  informal,  localised,  out-­‐sourced,  project-­‐based,  purpose-­‐led  and  virtual.    

A  New  Social  Contract  Defini4ons  of  success  become  more  personally  meaningful  to    each  individual  and  are  supported  by  employers,  re-­‐purposed    

unions  and  the  power  of  the  sharing  economy  network.  

Constant  Learning  and  Skill  Development  Personalised  and  contextually  relevant  on-­‐the-­‐job  training    

and  educa4on  will  extend  effec4ve  working  lives  and    ensure  that  skills  are  constantly  refreshed.  

Wisdom  Workers  Focus  is  on  enabling  reinven4on  stemming  from  opportuni4es  created  by    non-­‐linear  career  paths  and  innova4on  networks,  giving  rise  to  the  ‘wisdom  worker’  -­‐  where  experience  is  the  cri4cal  addi4on  to  skills  and  intelligence.  

Cyber  Reputa=ons  Personal  and  corporate  cyber  reputa4ons  move  with  the  individual,  enabling  transparency  and  accountability  about    

performance  of  services  and  interac4ons.      

Feminine  Spirit  Leading  organisa4ons,  in  par4cular  those  in  the  West,    promote  and  invest  in  women,  be[er  represen4ng  the  popula4ons  that  they  serve.  

Many  benefit  from  doing  so.  

The  Fun  Factor  As  a[rac4on  and  reten4on  for  jobs  becomes  more  compe44ve  in  a  freelance  

world,  companies  aim  to  “elevate”  the  workplace  experience  -­‐  reducing  rou4ne  drudgery  and  emphasizing  self-­‐actualising,  fun  experiences.  

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