Shape

Future scenarios: implications for thethird sector in Wales

Meirion Thomas, Professor Martin Rhisiart and Eva Trier

FUTUREyour

2 SHAPE YOUR FUTURE

About the AuthorsMeirion thomas is Director of Penbryn Consulting. Meirion has a blend of experienceof working on a number of strategic reviews across the public, private and third sectorwith extensive futures and scenario development experience.

Professor Martin rhisiart is Director of the Centre for Research in Futures andInnovation at the University of South Wales. He has led a range of national andinternational studies on futures and scenario building.

eva trier, a Cardiff based consultant, has extensive experience in third sectorconsultancy and social innovation as well as a strong background in futures work.

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Published by Wales Council for Voluntary Action, Head OfficeBaltic House, Mount Stuart Square, Cardiff, CF10 5FH

Registered charity number 218093

tel: 0800 2888 329Fax: 029 2043 1701Minicom: 029 2043 1702November 2016ISBN 978-1-910340-15-8

This report was commissioned jointly by WCVA and the 19 County Voluntary Councilsin Wales. The Shape Your Future exercise took place over summer 2016 to inform ourstrategic thinking. We also hope it will be a useful resource for other third sectorgroups in Wales.

Two reports have been published based on the Shape Your Future exercise. The firstexplores implications of future trends to 2030 for the third sector in Wales. The secondexplores four potential future scenarios and implications for our work today. Both canbe found at www.wcva.org.uk

AcknowledgeMentsWe’re extremely grateful to all those who participated in the Shape Your Futureexercise whether via the online poll, the three workshop sessions, the one to oneinterviews or the roundtable. The exercise was dependent on your participation.

Thanks to all WCVA’s staff who supported the project. Thanks to School ofInternational Futures for their support to WCVA in shaping the initial concept andoutline project. Thanks also to Hazel Lloyd Lubran from CAVO for her input on behalfof the County Voluntary Councils, and Gareth Coles for the illustrations.

Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 3

contentsAcknowledgMents 2

Foreword 4

IntroductIon 5

sectIon 01scenArIos For the FutureConscietious Prosperity 8

Willing Consumers 10

Boots on the Ground 12

The Die Hards 14

sectIon 02strAtegIc IMPlIcAtIons Introduction 17

AnnexThird sector Wales 2030: key drivers of change 20

4 SHAPE YOUR FUTURE

The nineteen County Voluntary Councils and WCVA have manyshared goals. We all work to enable the third sector andvolunteers across Wales to contribute fully to individual andcommunity wellbeing.

We know that we can achieve much more by working together, linking across our local,regional and national activities. This joint report exploring the future challenges andopportunities for the sector over the coming 15 -20 years is part of this collaborativeapproach.

This is one of two linked reports and together they raise some fundamental issues, notall of which are comfortable reading. It’s clear that if the sector is to play its full role inimproving wellbeing over the longer term, we will need to work closely with partnersacross all sectors. We have involved a range of partners in this work and I hope we cancontinue to engaged with them as we take forward the findings.

Looking to the long term can be a challenge for the sector whenour role is often to support others facing immediate crisis of dayto day survival.

The Wellbeing of Future Generations (Wales) Act sets a legislative framework thatrequires the public sector to incorporate long term planning into decision making. Italso sets a duty on Welsh Government to produce a Future Trends report to providethe data that will shape future scenarios to better inform the decisions we maketoday.

We have applied this principle in reviewing the future role of the third sector. Thisreport has provided a catalyst for engaging the wider sector in discussions to helpshape our future planning as WCVA and CVCs. I hope the process will also support thesector in contributing to the development of the local Wellbeing Plans required by theWFG Act.

The sector will be at the forefront of tackling the implications of the major futuretrends such as climate change, demographic change, technological advance anddisruptive economic change. The future wellbeing of our communities will bedependent on our ability to take early action to prepare for these changes, to buildresilience for the long term through community led action and so to become ‘a societythat prevents problems from occurring rather than one that, as now, copes with theconsequences.‘

Peter davies cbe Chair WCVA

richard edwardsChair, Wales Association ofCounty Voluntary Councils

Foreword

Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 5

IntroductIon

Futures work is not about trying to predict the future. It isabout developing a much better understanding of the factorsand drivers that will affect the future; exploring andchallenging our assumptions; and, thinking about what thismight mean for individuals and communities – and in thiscase, the third sector in Wales. By doing this, organisationscan improve the quality of their decision-making today.

The tools we used in the Shape Your Future exercise aredesigned to help groups to be better at anticipating futurechange. This builds capacity to deal with changes that thefuture may bring. Developing a better understanding of thepositive or negative impact of future trends and driversenables us to act today to shape a better future.

scenArIosIn the previous report, we looked at existing evidence onfuture trends and key drivers of change for the third sector inWales. In this report, we explore four potential scenarios.These were developed from two workshop sessions withthird sector groups.

They are based on two drivers that workshop participantsidentified as both important to the sector and open toinfluence:

• Levels of citizen engagement with society challenges • Levels and sources of funding for the third sector

WCVA and the County Voluntary Councils commissioned the Shape Your Future exercise to helpthem to plan ahead in the face of increasing uncertainty and complexity.

bAckground

the four scenarios – WillingConsumers, ConscientiousProsperity, Die Hards and Boots onthe Ground – were discussed anddeveloped using two ‘vignettes’.One is from the perspective of animaginary ‘beneficiary’ family andone from the perspective of animagined third sector organisation.

high level of third sector funding

willing customers

Retrenchmentof the state

Migration

AgeingSociety

Geo-politicalInstability &

shocks

Declining trustin intsitutions

Levels ofinquality

Generation Xand Y attitudes

Digitaltechnology &information

conscientiousprosperity

die hards boots on theground

low level of third sector funding

low level ofcitizen

engagement

high level ofcitizen

engagement

6 SHAPE YOUR FUTURE

Whilst funding is often top of people’s list of concerns, the scenario developmenthighlighted that citizen engagement might be more important and equally uncertain.Discussions also underlined both the importance and uncertainty of another keydriver – digital technology. There is an urgent need to address this.

The four scenarios explore different possible futures. One anticipates voluntary andcommunity action playing a core role in supporting people and communities toachieve their own local solutions and enabling community cohesion. However, this isnot guaranteed. An increasingly polarized sector that struggles to speak out formarginalized groups is also possible. Decreasing engagement and resources wouldfragment volunteering and social action, limiting its contribution to communityresilience. Some scenarios question the survival of the current ‘third sector’ by 2030.

The decisions the sector and its partners make today will impact on which elements ofthese scenarios are more or less likely to become reality by 2030.

strAtegIc IMPlIcAtIons A roundtable bringing together key stakeholders in and beyond the third sectordiscussed the strategic implications of the scenario work. The final section of thisreport sets out key themes that emerged from the roundtable discussion.

The beneficiary family is described as:

Our family has multiple needs. They live in a village in Rural North Wales and have noaccess to private transport. Mum (Steph) is 30 – 40 years old and works part time; Dad(Daf) is in his early 50’s, he is unemployed and suffers with diabetes. The family has ateenager with a mental health disorder and a small child living with them. In addition,two grandparents live in the household and both have emerging mental health issues.The family also has a great grandparent of 90+ in residential care a few miles away.

01

FUTURESCENARIOSCONSCIENTIOUS PROSPERITY

WILLING CONSUMERS

BOOTS ON THE GROUND

THE DIE HARDS

Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 7

SECTION

conscIentIous ProsPerIty: scenArIo 1Third sector organisations are ‘swimming with the tide’ –powered by the social conscience of the masses. These conditionshave also led to a certain complacency and staleness in the sector.

Uneven economic performance alsocontinues to be the picture within Wales,with the main measure of economicprosperity (GVA) considerably lower forWest Wales and the Valleys than for EastWales.

In 2030 globalisation has had a positiveimpact on the economy. The majority ofpeople are enjoying high(er) levels ofprosperity but there are still economicand social disparities remain withincountries and across communities. Theneed to advocate and campaign fordifferent social causes remains.

The maturing of the MillenniumGenerations ‘Y’ and ‘Z’ have shaped socialattitudes. For example, citizens identifywith social challenges and are willing toaccept a responsibility to care for others.However, it is still the well-off oldergeneration with time on their hands – thenow aged Baby Boomers – that mainlysets the tone of third sector activities.

Citizens are now very focused on thequality of their communities; emphasisinga healthier civil society, good social andcommunity relationships and the provisionof mutual support. Within the third sectorthere is pride in doing a good job and aconfidence that, in a relatively prosperouscountry, existing structures can providefor the diversity of needs in communities.

However, a tendency to ‘swim with thetide’ has led to a degree of complacencyand increasing stigmatisation of less‘worthy’ causes and needs. For instance,inward migration, which has continued tobe strong in response to the demandsfrom the economy and from the ageingpopulation for lower paid workers andcare workers, is regarded by many assimply increasing inequality. Migrants aremostly seen as a problem. Although theyplay an important role in delivering arange of low cost services (e.g. cleaning),they are not able to engage on equalterms with wider society.

‘citizens are highly engagedin tackling social challenges.organisations in the thirdsector are well resourcedand have innovated in thetypes of funding that theyraise.‘

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A family vignette

Steph and Daf’s family are ‘on theradar’ for a seemingly endless listrange of Public, private and thirdsector support providers who haveused access to ‘Big Data’ to helpthem understand individual andfamily needs and then created abespoke ‘menu’ tailored to thediverse needs of the family. Thesupport that they are able to accessis well funded and their ‘choice’ isabundant.

However, Steph and Daf often feelover-run by the volume and rangeof offers of support from both localvolunteers as well as differentcombinations of public, private andthird sector organisations. Thisleads them to feeling thatsometimes, they would like to beleft alone and able to take a breakfrom well meaning ‘do-gooders’.

Each member of the family, fromgrandad to the youngest child, hasbeen able to learn use informationtechnology and to get access to allsorts of information, on-lineservices and educational sites (aswell as social media sites). Steph,however, is concerned that Dafspends too much time ‘logged on’at the local community centrebecoming obsessed with ‘conspiracytheory’ sites and spouting moreand more right-wing opinions.

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Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 9

In 2030 citizens are not as willing as in thepast to simply trust their governmentsand international organisations.Uncertainties caused by global and localterrorism and the revived risk ofwidespread conflict in the world are acause of major concern. Many regard thisas institutional failure.

Therefore, while the public investments inwidespread low cost access to ICTnetworks has paid off giving citizensalmost unlimited access to informationand data, many people no longer trustthe accuracy and quality of informationbeing provided by mainstream sources.This is due to many public scandalswhere global corporations and somegovernments without a strong tradition ofliberal democracy have been exposed asmanipulating that information and accessto it.

People therefore are mostly happy to relyon social media for the information theyneed because at least there is a degree ofpeer-to-peer trust amongst (virtual)friends. But connecting mostly only withfriends with shared interests has placed avirtual ‘bubble’ around many citizens. Access to Big Data now allows thirdsector organisations and others to collectand analyse data. This has given them theluxury of a detailed understanding ofwhat their target sectors andbeneficiaries need and how best to targetservices and fund raising messages.

The result is that a lot of people simplyaccept a ‘menu’ of social causes andneeds drawn up by campaigners with thebest data management and social mediaskills rather than the advocates for thosein our society with the greatest needs.

In 2030 the shrinking of the state hascontinued and there is less and lesswillingness to listen to the voices arguingfor redistribution of wealth. The thirdsector are therefore seen as thechampions of social justice and havefound new ways of raising funding,including through competitively allocatedgovernment funds, crowd-funding,legacies, private donations etc, they arenow seen as well-resourced organisationswith a mixed income base.

Established third sector organisationshave benefitted from this access tofunding and have built thriving localorganisations that have taken advantageof greater citizen engagement. Theirfocus is on improving and maintainingthe quality of delivery and training staffand volunteers. There has been a shift tomore professional fundraising strategiesthat are increasingly integrated at a UKnational level. As a result, there is areduced need for the traditional fundingrole locally.

Across the third sector, as the larger‘players’ are ‘hoovering up’ funding andvolunteers, few new organisations areemerging. Where new ‘needs’ haveemerged, established third sectororganisations have either ‘delegated’delivery to the next layer of smallerorganisations or collaborated amongsteach other to jointly meet the new needrather than allow new entrants into thesector.

Greater cooperation with the public andprivate sector is resulting in more‘commercial’ organisational structuresand social enterprise service deliverymodels further blurring the boundariesacross the third sector. With a settledthird sector operating in relative comfortand with limited external challenge, aftera period of innovation around fundingthere is now little incentive fororganisations to innovate further. Havinggiven up its track record and expertise incampaigning and challenging the publicand private sectors, the distinctiveness ofthe sector is under threat.

Troubled Turnover – apossible organisationalresponse

As a result of relatively generouslevels of funding and a stronggroundswell of citizens who want tobe more engaged in society’schallenges and needs, a degree ofcomplacency has set in amongstthird sector generally.

The larger third sectororganisations have ‘hoovered up’the big funding pots and newentrants aiming to meet specificneeds are increasingly frozen out ofthe sector. A ‘cosy cabal’ is in placebetween the large third sectorplayers, their preferred partners inthe Private sector and Public sectorcommissioners who have ‘gonesoft’ because the funding is not anissue in most cases.

A distinctive third sector has almostdisappeared. The result is a‘troubled turnover’ across thesector.

Many smaller, niche third sectororganisations dwindle, die andleave the scene. However, theircitizen supporters are remainingactive and unsatisfied by the effortsof the establishment third sectorplayers.

A revolution in the third sector ispredicted by citizen activists andcommentators as citizens turn theirmotivations and passion for socialjustice on the status quo thirdsector.

10 SHAPE YOUR FUTURE

wIllIng consuMers: scenArIo 2In 2030 globalisation can be seen as having had a positiveimpact on the economy. For examples, patterns of wealthcreation have changed and more citizens have a stake ininnovative businesses. So while most people are relatively well-off, there are still economic and social disparities withincountries and across communities.

The change in attitudes in society drivenby Generations ‘Y’ and ‘Z’ has not had theimpact that was widely anticipated in theMillennium years. An ageing population issetting a rather regressive tone withageing ‘Baby Boomers’, who are willingand able to pay for their needs to beaddressed, mostly concerned about theirown health and social care needs. External shocks caused by geo-politicalevents and increasing global tensions andmigration have contributed to furtherdecreasing levels of citizen trust ingovernments, corporations andinternational organizations.

Therefore, while well-off citizens arewilling to donate and contribute funds to‘good causes’, this has more of apurchasing character and they are notpersonally committed to socialchallenges. They are also not engaged inlocal or national social activism includingvolunteering. There is now truly ‘no suchthing as society’. Instead, in this ‘sharingeconomy’, more and more people arelooking to make a return on any assetsthey have. This further weakens any

commitment they might have to gettinginvolved with specific or local socialcauses and needs.

Third sector organisations are thereforemostly seen as suppliers to the socialconscience of citizens. Overall, citizensare happy to pay for other people to dealwith social challenges for them as long asit is done at an arm’s length. As peoplegenerally don’t care from where theypurchase their social conscience boundariesbetween the third sector and the privateand public sectors are blurred.

Since citizens are not taking directinterest in addressing specific socialchallenges and causes, the ‘market’ is thekey mechanism for allocating resources.This is only reinforcing wealth andincome inequality between and withinnations and communities. Left to marketforces, house prices, for instance,continue to rise leading to higher levels ofhomelessness and while the affluentsociety is attracting in-migration, it is alsoless welcoming.

‘third sector organisationsare relatively well resourcedand enjoy funding from arange of sources. People arewilling to donate andcontribute funds – but arenot personally committedto social challenges. here isthe notion of the citizen asa willing consumer – quitehappy to pay for otherpeople to deal with thesechallenges; the consumer ina transactional sense.‘

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A family vignette

With the funding and resourcesavailable, the family is relativelywell provided for by the thirdsector, services are often providedfree or with a significant subsidyand, while the family areappreciative of this, they are awarethat many people within theircommunity (and society in general)see them as a ‘high dependency’family with a ‘feckless’ approach totheir responsibilities as citizens.The family naturally feel that thatthey have a stigma attached tothem which they resent but arepowerless to remove.

Steph has begun work for a thirdsector organisation providing socialcare for elderly people in thecommunity. For this she is paid atgood rate rather than as a freevolunteer. While the familywelcome this extra income, Stephand Daf are concerned that somepeople in the community who donot get paid for their volunteeringmay be resentful.

As more and more social servicesare now delivered by combinationsof the public, private and thirdsectors, the family have foundthemselves on the lower tier of‘tiered service’ arrangement withlittle hope of being able to chooseto ‘go private’ as some of theirneighbours have been able to do.This has just added to the stigma oftheir position and their ‘sense ofcommunity’ is weakening aroundthem.

Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 11

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In 2030 citizens have becomesophisticated consumers. They are usedto purchasing services, including socialcare and causes, of all types andcategories and demand high levels ofservice delivery, quality and value formoney. For citizens the focus is on thequality of the service offered and ease ofaccess to services rather than whoprovides the service to the needy.Because of this, external challenges tothird sector organisations largely comefrom individuals who feel they have notgot the service they were promised.

The state has not been able to matchthese expectations and has drawn backinto the delivery of more acute servicesreaching only the most vulnerable insociety. Unpopular causes areincreasingly dependent on the publicpurse while more ‘popular’ causes withmore public appeal receive greaterindividual giving. Those representing themost marginalised in society are at adisadvantage and find it increasinglydifficult to shape debates on issuesincluding equality and local solidarity.

Services for the most vulnerable that areprovided free or at a highly subsidisedrate create a stigma for families. What areseen as ‘high dependency’ families arefrowned upon by the ‘willing consumers’.

There is now ample space in the marketfor the third sector and the private sectorto step in. Now they compete directly andopenly with each other – with consumerchoices determining outcomes. This hasled to a radical transformation of how thethird sector is viewed and the rationalefor its very existence. The result has beenan increasingly ‘tiered service’ with somebeneficiaries and communities choosingto ‘go private’ since it’s the same type andquality of service but without anyassociated stigma that has becomeattached to third sector provision.

Third sector organisations generally havehad to put much more effort into skillsthat address marketing (of services,funding and volunteering), delivery ofhigh quality services and maximisingefficiency savings, for instance throughservices provided online. In the drive toachieve this products and services thatcan offer ‘willing consumers’ added valuefeatures and provide a ‘social premium’(such as Fair Trade or other ethical‘credits’), are the most highly sought.

In 2030 the ‘sense of community’traditionally maintained and sustained bythird sector engagement and volunteeringhas fragmented. Volunteering generallyhas decreased and membership of locallybased voluntary sector organisations hasdeclined alongside a lack of long terminvestment in local groups and structures.Increasing health care costs in an ageingsociety also mean that people are workingmore and longer, which further impactson the availability of volunteer resourcesand informal support services such aschild care.

Some third sector organisations havechosen to move into ‘paid’ volunteering.But this has meant that fewer people arenow willing to volunteer which is causingproblems for those third sectororganisations that are totally volunteer-led. Indeed, plentiful funding but with lowlevels of volunteering brings intoquestion the whole rationale for the thirdsector. How can the sector sustain a corecommitment to the public good and anethos that is different to profit-seekingbusinesses? One approach has been forwell-resourced third sector organisationsto create a national franchise approach tohelp compete with the private sectoremphasis on brand recognition,professionalism and service quality.

In 2030, the result is that there is amomentum towards a polarisation of thethird sector. Well-resourced andorganised bodies are taking a largelyprivate sector approach to products,services, quality and paid volunteeringwhile smaller local third sector bodies areleft to work with increasinglymarginalised groups, but dwindling innumber and vibrancy.

Friendly Franchise Company– a possible organisationalresponse

Citizens are happy to pay for otherpeople to deal with societalchallenges for them as long as it isdone at an arm’s length and thefocus is on the quality of the serviceoffered and the ease of access tothe purchasing of the ‘socialconscience’ rather than whoprovides the service to the needy.

Because the state has not beenable to match these expectations ithas withdrawn into the delivery ofmore acute services. This has leftopen a national ‘space’ where thethird sector and the private sectorare able to operate freely.

With access to adequate fundingbut accompanied by low levels ofvolunteering leads to well-resourcedthird sector organisations adoptinga ‘friendly national franchise’approach.

This approach is seen as marketled, driven by efficiency and quality.It is also motivated by a ‘big is best’philosophy where the scale andreach of the franchise beats localvolunteer delivery every time onthe metrics that citizens (willingconsumers) have become used toin the private services market –brand recognition, professionalismand service quality.

Small locally focused third sectorbodies don’t get a look in on largepublic service contracts and are leftto work with increasinglymarginalised groups before finallydwindling in their numbers andtheir vibrancy.

12 SHAPE YOUR FUTURE

boots on the ground: scenArIo 3Citizens are at the vanguard here – a DIY spirit or 'boots on theground'. The downside for the third sector is that the DIY ethosmeans that there is little scope for the growth of professionalorganisations.

In Wales, and the UK, in 2030 theeconomy continues to falter andeconomic and social disparities withincountries and across communities havebecome more pronounced.

Uncertainties caused by global and localterrorism, the revived risk of widespreadconflict in the world and otherdisruptions have stimulated citizens tolook more toward their own communitiesand neighbours. Citizens feel that theyneed to engage in tackling inequalities ata local and community level – eventhough their communities are adapting tothe dislocation caused internationally byconflict and migration.

Citizens are really engaged in addressingsocietal challenges partly driven by thematuring of the Generations ‘Y’ and ‘Z’and partly as a result of less economicprosperity. The result has been a growingwillingness for citizens to identify withsocial challenges and a willingness toaccept a responsibility to care for others.

The quality of their communities and ahealthier civil society is increasinglyimportant and the provision of mutualsupport within communities has come tothe fore.

Third sector organisations are in generalnot well-resourced. Due to the lingeringeffects of the long term policy ofausterity, funds from government arerationed and there has been littleinnovation in the types of funding raisedby the third sector. However, third sectororganisations are still mostly reliant onthe limited ‘pots’ of public funding thatthey need to win from competitively-bidprogrammes along with small donationsthat are hard won from withincommunities that are themselvessuffering economically.

As a result, the third sector’s core task isto support people to do things forthemselves – identifying their own needsand using their own skills, energy andassets to find local solutions.

‘citizens are engaged infighting societal challengesalthough funding is quitemeagre and limited interms of its sources. therehas been little innovation in terms of giving orfundraising mechanisms.‘

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A family vignette

Local people are motivated to helpdeal with the social needs andchallenges in their communities, sothe family feel able to take action,and responsibility, themselves.While only limited public servicesare available there is a goodawareness of ‘what's out there‘ andthe family have been able to turn totheir own community for adviceand support.

The family have been helped tomake use of online services andinformation and have access tocommunity broadband servicesand to use communal equipment.The local transport hub alsoenables the family to get to localtowns for shopping and visits tohospital and doctors, while visits tothe great grandmother everyfortnight can be arranged.

Community volunteers keep a closeeye on the family and are able toensure that they get support whenits needed without the need toalways have to ask. However, Staphand Daf find this a little bit intrusiveand a bit demeaning. There havealso been a few instances whenwell-meaning volunteers haveoffered advice when that advicemay not have been the mostappropriate in the circumstances.So far this has not caused anysignificant damage but there aresome in the community who areincreasingly wary. On occasion,they have had to step in and act asmediators.

Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 13

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Beneficiaries or users of services havehad to take more responsibility for theirsituation and their needs and haveturned to their own community forsupport. There has been a revival of amore traditional communitarian, localistethos with ample support from citizens.

This citizens’ movement has been helpedby migration into communities fromabroad and other parts of the UK.Migration has brought a wider pool ofpeople into communities eager andmotivated to begin engaging within theircommunities and to volunteer. At thesame time, migration has brought a newset of needs into communities withpeople from different cultural and socialbackgrounds. Integration has been, andcontinues to be, an issue for manycommunities but citizen engagement andlocal volunteer activism has shown itselfto be part of the solution as well as apositive asset to the community.

While the burgeoning ‘can do’ attitude ofcitizens is an asset for the third sector,the downside is that the ‘DIY’ ethos leaveslittle scope for the growth of professionalorganisations. More third sectororganisations have become predominantlyvolunteer-led with limited professionalstaff at the core. The increasing prevalenceof informal volunteering with limitedfunding restricts the ability to trainvolunteers and challenges any meaningfulquality control of services and thedevelopment of structured collaborations.Low cost-based organisations havebecome the reality for most of the sector.This has caused more fragmentation andan increasingly piecemeal provisionacross the third sector.

Locally bespoke solutions have alsoopened the door to the rise of specialinterest groups which has created tensionand conflict between different groupsand communities.

However, for some, ‘mutualism’ hasbecome a better description than‘volunteering’ bringing with it a clear focuson local needs and provision that matchesindividual needs with individual volunteersor providers within the community.

In this situation, the now ubiquitoussuperfast broadband networks that are inplace across the whole of Wales hasproved to be a key asset to the citizenactivism. Third sector organisations havebecome much more technology savvyand use online services to provide a verywide range of services. Using this

infrastructure to link volunteers acrosscommunities as well as to provide externaladvice and expertise has become acritical success factor. This has alsoallowed relatively small organisations towork across a larger area and providespecialist services and advice far afieldfrom their physical base.

However, volunteers have had to domany more things than the professionalthird sector staff of old were called to do.This has resulted in problems, forexample, when the service provision oradvice offered by local volunteers maynot be accurate or appropriate due to agap in knowledge or expertise. Informalvolunteering brings with it a danger thatspecific risks (e.g. Health and Safety) arenot well addressed. This has put usersand volunteers alike at risk of compliantand even litigation. There are examples oftrust within local communities becomingstrained and giving rise to unpleasant‘litigation’. Ironically, this has caused anincrease in demand for professionallytrained mediators within the third sectorsupport infrastructure that does survive.

A national level movement is underway toinform statutory authorities, and educatespecial interest groups and people comingtogether for their own causes andcampaigns etc. and to ‘broker’ arrangementsacross community groups.

Citizen Activist Platform – apossible organisationalresponse

Citizens are heavily engaged inworking together to address socialchallenges as they appear in theircommunities. They are building aplatform of citizen activism basedon identifying their own needs andusing their own skills, energy andassets to work together locally tofind positive solutions. In this sensethey have revived a traditionalcommunitarian, localist ethoswhere ‘mutualism’ has become abetter description than‘volunteering’.

Since third sector organisations arein general not well-resourced, theyhave to make do with smallcontributions provided from withintheir communities. So to maximisethe impact of their work, the newCitizen activism platforms haveused information andcommunication technology to linkvolunteers across communities aswell as to share advice andexpertise with other activists.

Building and maintaining theseplatforms across technologynetworks has allowed relativelysmall organisations to work acrossa larger area and provide specialistservices and advice far afield fromtheir physical base. They provide anunregulated and ‘open source’alternative to the traditional thirdsector infrastructure supportnetwork.

14 SHAPE YOUR FUTURE

the dIe hArds: scenArIo 4 This is a harsh, competitive environment for organisations in thethird sector – a hand to mouth existence for the die hards thatwill keep the faith and maintain the mission whatever thecircumstances.

In 2030 while parts of the UK haveprospered economically, quite severeeconomic and social disparities withincountries and across communities havebeen hidden at times. Globalisationeffects have mostly been to the benefit ofsome urban areas and has missed outthe rural and more isolated traditionalindustrial communities of Wales.

As community life and public servicedeclined in the 2020’s, better educatedand more prosperous citizens moved outof areas with few opportunities while‘white flight’ citizens from the UK’s citieshave taken their place. This has caused a‘vicious circle’ that has increaseddeprivation in many communities. Andwhile many newcomers are part of thedemographic ‘time bomb’ of a generallyageing population who have placedincreased demands on services, on theplus side, they are generally goodvolunteers and able to offer some extraexperience to their local communities.

External shocks caused by geo-politicalevents and increasing global tensions andmigration have contributed to a low levelof trust towards governments,corporations and internationalorganisations and third sectororganisations fall into this same category.

Citizens are generally not personallycommitted to dealing with global or evennational social challenges, nor are theymotivated to engage in local or nationalsocial activism including volunteering inthe numbers needed to make adifference. The levels of inequality thatexist in communities make it more andmore difficult to engage some groupswith fewer resources available to makean impact on wellbeing generally. Thepeople have become more disillusionedand fatalistic about their condition.

‘what does the third sectordo when citizens are notreally engaged in keysocietal challenges, thelevel of funding is low andthere is little innovation inthe way income isgenerated?‘

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A family vignette

The family are isolated, physicallyand socially, on the edge of theirrural village with very limited publictransport access and a dearth ofpublic or volunteer servicesavailable to meet the wide range ofsupport needs that they have.

Access to jobs, training andeducational support is very limitedfor Steph and Daf and they areterribly concerned about the lifechances for their children. This isparticularly acute for their youngestchild whose friends in schoolreceive after school educationalsupport that their parents have topay for. Their child is also not ableto join in after school sports andsocial clubs because these havebeen privatised by the localauthority and are now run as ‘for-profit’ even by the community clubsthat previously were providingthem as a community ‘good’.

Steph and Daf are naturallyfrustrated and fearful. They realisethat the system can only help themwhen they are regarded as‘hopeless cases’. Even when localvolunteers are willing to help, anyhelp they give free of charge will beseen by Government and localauthorities as an unjustifiedsubsidy so they have to stand asidefor now.

Achieving the modern equivalent of‘poor house’ status has just aboutbecome their goal. When theyreach that low point they know thatthe final safety net will closearound them and the Governmentwill finally pay local third sectororganisations to step in andprovide support. But by then Stephand Daf fear that the family unitand its coherence will have goneand will probably never be revived.

Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 15

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Funding for social causes and challengesis low and while relatively prosperouscitizens in the South East of England arewilling to donate to ‘good causes’, theyare too few and far between to make adifference in the rural and Valleyscommunities.

Access to information and communicationstechnology has been a boon even in theDie Hard communities, little has beendone to increase ‘digital literacy’ in Wales.So there are still many pockets of peoplein Wales who are most in need of supportand services but who are almost totallyexcluded from the digital world.

For the Die Hards, the ‘sense of community’that has previously been maintained andsustained by third sector engagementand volunteering has become furtherfragmented. Volunteering generally hasdecreased and membership of locallybased voluntary sector organisations hasdeclined alongside a lack of long terminvestment in local groups andstructures. Third sector organisationstherefore have to limit themselves tohighly targeted engagement activities.

The third sector that does remain activeis under great pressure to source fundingand this leads to an inevitable ‘burn-out’of people and energy. It creates asignificant stress on the volunteers in thefield and working in the management ofthe third sector organisations stillsurviving. Large charities with existingprofessional organisations and smallinformal organisations have the bestchances of survival whereas mediumsized organisations are most vulnerable.

Naturally, securing funding has had tobecome the priority activity for thirdsector organisations. As a result, whereneeds have to be prioritised, the ‘lowhanging fruit’ have been taken. Thismeans that the more ‘difficult’ cases andneeds have often been left behindplacing even more pressure on statutoryservices. In addition, the inevitable highfailure rate in third sector funding bidshas meant that more and moreopportunities are missed and more andmore needs go unsatisfied.

Greater efforts are being made to attractmore business funding so that the thirdsector organisations can invest in theskills needed to become more business-like while staying focused on their missionand keeping to a volunteering ethos.

Fears of losing organisationalindependence or even disappearingaltogether act as an obstacle to make themost of opportunities for innovation andgreater collaboration. The third sectorhas had to become more competitive inview of a prevailing attitude acrosscommunities that ‘charity begins at home’and a resulting further reduction involunteering and community level action.

A fragmented and uncoordinated thirdsector has a mostly confrontationalrelationship with Government and LocalAuthorities. With limited fundingavailable, Government and LocalAuthorities now focus on workingorganisations that are able to addressthose with the greatest needs and theyhave become ‘commissioners’ rather than‘providers’. In addition, statutory servicesthemselves have to be prioritised, forinstance giving up the maintenance ofparks in favour of services for the elderly.

As a result, those with control over the‘purse strings’ – the funding bodies – arethe ‘Kings’. In order to make their jobeasier, they allocate scarce funds to awide range of organisations attemptingto satisfy the most ‘worthy needs’ insociety. Application processes andeligibility criteria are therefore ever morestringent and onerous and third sectororganisations are finding themselves alsocompeting with Local Authorities.

The private sector now considers doinglow value work in communities as goodpublic relations or an opportunity toaffirm a commitment to ‘corporate socialresponsibility’. This further challenges therationale for third sector organisations tobe supported.

Although the Die Hard third sectorprobably will survive for a number ofyears, the demise of the volunteer-ledgrass roots action and services isanticipated to be on the horizon.

Big Funder – a possibleorganisational response

The level of funding in the thirdsector is low with little innovation inthe way income is generated.Securing funding has become thepriority activity for third sectororganisations and where needs areprioritised, the easy ‘low hangingfruit’ have been taken with ‘difficult’cases left behind.

The third sector has had to becomemore competitive becauseGovernment and Local Authoritieswill only work with organisationsable to deliver against targetsaround those with the greatestneeds.

Funding bodies are now‘commissioners’ rather than‘providers’ when allocating theirscarce funds to satisfy the most‘worthy needs’ in society. The resultis that funding applicationprocesses and eligibility criteria arestringent and onerous.

To try to make the fundingallocation process moretransparent, funders have adoptedthe ‘Challenge prize’ model offunding using competitions andaward programmes rather than astructured strategic process basedon needs.

The supply side therefore drivesthe process with little room forinnovation and a lack of focus onthe impact of services and supportfor most beneficiaries.

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SCENARIOIMPLICATIONSFOR THESTRATEGICREVIEW SECTION

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Future scenarios: implications for the third sector in Wales 17

IntroductIonA Stakeholder Roundtable was organised to discuss the strategicimplications of the Shape Your future exercise. Participantsincluded colleagues from the third sector, but also government,academia and funders.

VAlues, PrIncIPles And trustIf the third sector is to shape its future, itwill need strongcommunications anddialogue, sustained integrity and alwaysbe able to refer to its own values andprinciples. If partners can understandwhat a third sector organisation is aboutand what its guiding values are then theycan engage with confidence and trust.If the weakening of trust in allorganisations and sectors (as depicted inthe trends, drivers and scenarios) is realthen the third sector must grasp thischallenge to build and grow citizens’ andcommunity trust in the sector.

The values and principles of the thirdsector in Wales need to be moreprominent and better understood. Thethird sector needs to set out clearprinciples through which it operates inWales. Whilst being ‘well-principled’ isimportant, most private businesses wouldalso claim to operate in this way too.

Having a strong sense of mission, supportedby principles and values will be key forthird sector organisations in a number ofways. This includes building trust with thecitizens, businesses and public bodies.Also to support proper collaboration andallow for robust scrutiny.

Stakeholders felt that trust requires anintegrated approach that is based oncommon values and purposes. Muchdamage can be done (and has beendone), by just one quite isolated butpowerful example (such as AWEMA), wherethird sector values and principles are notadhered to. However, organisations stillneed to be allowed to fail and it’s notclear the right lessons have been learnt inthe relationship between WelshGovernment and the third sector.

dIstInctIVeness oF the thIrd sectorStakeholders noted that increasingly, andas depicted in the scenarios, manycitizens ask the question, ‘What is thethird sector for?’. This was felt to be asmuch a question about relevance andaction as it is about mission statementsand strategic objectives.

The discussion also highlighted that theconcept of clearly defined sectors –private, public and third sector – isbecoming less relevant, with a ‘blurring ofthe edges’ between the sectors and theirtarget audiences. Therefore, thedistinctions between social enterpriseand private enterprise or public servicesand commercial services are increasinglyless distinct. It will be more challengingfor the services and activities provided bythird sector bodies to be distinctive.

Re-localising society and economies toact as a counter balance to globalisationis shown to be important in some of thescenarios. Trends and drivers assumethat globalisation will continue and, can bea force for good. However, stakeholdersnoted that this needs to be balancedagainst the need to have stronger,connected communities that can buildlocal resilience in the economy.

IndePendence AndAccountAbIlItyAccountability is currently largelyunderstood to relate to government andfunders rather than beneficiaries. The‘third sector’ needs to represent citizensand communities as opposed to itself.Too often sustainability is simply viewedas keeping the organisation afloat. Sectororganisations can be as remote,unrepresentative and as unaccountableas any private or public body.

There is a need to not only strengthenthe beneficiary voice and to recognisethat communities have very distinct

the themes below are largely drawn from the discussion at the roundtable.

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preferences, assets and needs. Regaining the independenceto be able to respond to communities’ agendas, moving onfrom a widely held ‘deficit model’ and adopting public serviceagendas will be vital for the third sector.

Third sector organisations have the expertise, and a role, tochallenge government, public bodies, businesses and indeedother third sector groups. This will be important with thescenarios suggesting increasing marginalisation of some groups.

This can only be achieved where there is sufficient strengthof mission and a coherent form of scrutiny and accountability.Appropriate structure is important for the latter (eg,strengthened Public Service Boards), but perhaps focusing ontransparency will be important looking ahead. Citizens needsupport to confidently engage with this, and this needsresourcing.

What does independence mean in an increasingly interconnectedsociety? This will demand robust and honest dialogue.

One way of institutionalising accountability is to ensure thatthird sector activities are guided by clear and challengingoutcomes (where relevant, determined by communitiesthemselves) and that support a learning process. This willallow the sector to shape rather than react to calls for betterscrutiny supporting ‘boots on the ground’ in community /citizen led action, must be at the heart of the strategy.Alongside this, the work of those organisations with a remitto provide collective challenge needs to be strengthened. Inbroader terms it is about a ‘robust dialogue’ and morecontrol at the local level in designing local solutions.

coMPetItIon And collAborAtIon The clarity of individual organisations’ and collective thirdsector missions will also make it easier to make appropriateconnections within the sector. Indeed, ‘working togetheracross different missions and even sectors can be veryconstructive.’

At the same time, being more explicit about competition andfinding the best way to use competitive forces, withoutblindly adopting the private sector ‘competition is good’mantra that can be wasteful, will be important. Recognisingdifferent voices and ‘battling things out’ is one way ofachieving this. Making clear choices is key.

Collaboration and building consensus can becomeunhelpfully cosy. As seen in the scenarios, there is a dangerthis leads to larger more influential organisations workingwith other similar bodies in and outside the third sector,leaving little space for smaller groups and more marginalisedvoices. The third sector is diverse and has diverse voices.Challenge and competition also have important roles to play.More work is needed to unpick this balance. Focussing onimpact and outcomes should help.

uncertAInty oF dIgItAl IMPActThe role of digital technologies is fundamental and needs tobe considered in virtually all settings and scenarios. Thepublic and private sectors have seen ‘an explosion inbusiness models’ while the third sector has lagged behind –‘we need to embrace it’. As a driver, it is hugely importantand yet the particular impact is uncertain. There is an urgentneed to maximise the potential of digital technologies.

One of the key benefits for the sector was seen to be dataand open data in particular. To use this, it’s not just abouthaving the data, but being able to anlayse it and draw outuseful insights. Sharing data across organisations andsectors can help us understand whether and howinterventions are making a difference or by graspingopportunities to engage people through digital technologies(eg, creating a Pokemon stop to draw people in).

There are also concerns that the digital world will leave somebehind and could be harmful for, eg, data protection andincreasing polarisation of different groups.

the VAlue And chAllenge oF thewellbeIng oF Future generAtIons Act The Well Being of Future Generations Act was identified asproviding the sector with a new framework of common goals,measures and operating principles. With reducing funding ‘itwill not turn things round overnight’. It nevertheless has thepotential to rally people around a common vision ‘so we’renot collaborating for the sake of it of it, but because we haveshared goals that we all want to achieve and a set ofoperating principles as to how we work.’ It would be useful tomap the sector to understand how different organisationscan deliver on FGA commitments and where the gaps are.

Voluntary and community led activity - the thousands of local/ neighbourhood activities, many informal – has a hugeimpact on wellbeing. It’s a space where people can developrelationships, have fun, discuss what matters, support eachother and get on and do things. The public sector’s roleshould be more as an ‘enabling state’, with public policy andpractice enabling citizen, third sector and business activitythat contributes to wellbeing. The quality of third sectorleadership and engagement will be crucial.

The levels of trust between the statutory and third sector,going beyond CVCs, needs to be strengthened so that aBoots on the Ground vision doesn’t get jeopardised by atendency ‘to revert to large charities delivering big hitinterventions’.

The third sector is not subject to the legislative requirementsof the Act. This means that it can offer a good trial space forexperimentation on a low risk basis and help use the Act’smomentum to make things happen. A key task is to clearlycommunicate what the third sector has to offer. This needs aclear strategy for FGA engagement – ‘if we don’t deliver oncitizens’ engagement, nobody will.’

young PeoPleYoung people place great importance on playing a positiverole in society and there’s great potential for the sector to tapinto young people’s entrepreneuralism. However, there’s noguarantee that they will engage with the third sector. Therewill be challenges for third sector groups to adapt theirmodels and become more digitally enabled to engageeffectively with children and young people.

Sketch on page 19 is by one of the workshop participants,Gareth Coles, reflecting the discussions of the day.

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key drIVers oF chAnge: thIrd sector In wAles 2030IntroductionDrawing on the evidence gathered through the future trends report, a number of key drivers for change were identified. A meta-analysis identified a recent and relevant report on the the future role of civil society by the World Economic Forum1.The set of previously-tested drivers contained in that report was a solid foundation on which to discuss the future of thethird sector in Wales.These ‘Drivers of change’ are important forces that shape and alter the context for organisations andindividuals. These emerge from changes in the economy, society, technology and environment. The drivers identified arebriefly described in the table below:

driver definition trends report and evidenceLevel of inequality The level of wealth and income inequality between

and within nations.Relative Economic PerformanceDivisions and DeprivationThe Reinvention of Capitalism

Degree of trust ininstitutions

The level of trust expressed by citizens towardsgovernments, business and internationalorganizations. This is linked to the ability todetermine trustworthiness as well as external events.

Individual and collective value shifts

Democratization ofinformation andcommunication

The level of access to skills, infrastructure anddevices that enable information sharing andgeneral communication.

A digitalised world

Economic growth rate The rate of economic growth, both globally andwithin different countries and regions.

New notions of value creationRelative Economic performance

Geopolitical and geo-economicpower shifts

The shift in economic and military power awayfrom Europe and North America.

Changing Patterns of GlobalisationThe Reinvention of CapitalismThe Uncertain Future of Liberal Democracy

Level of citizenengagementwith societal challenges

The propensity of citizens to direct activity towardsor to identify with societal challenges and care forothers.

Individual and collective value shifts

Environmentaldegradation andclimate change impacts

The extent to which climate change and damage tothe environment manifests as significant costsor recurrent crises for populations, particularlyvulnerable ones.

Degradation of ecosystemsClimate change – policy and communityresponses

Scarcity or abundanceof natural resources

The abundance or scarcity, both physical andeconomic, of key natural resources such as energy,food, water and minerals.

Growing competition globally for naturalresources

Demographic shifts andmigration

Changing population age profiles, dependencyratios and the impact of movement of peopleacross borders.

Responses to Migration

Generational ValueShifts

The impact of changing attitudes in society, driven,for example by Generation Y (approx 1980s to2000) and Generation Z (2000-).

Individual and collective value shifts

Level and sources offunding for third sector

The level and sources of funding for development,such as bilateral donors, individual giving,foundation grants etc, and the development,implementation and uptake of new models forfunding, such as social investment bonds.

Individual and collective value shiftsChanging face of public services

Geopolitical conflict andstate of globalintegration

The risk of widespread conflict and state ofglobalization in the future.

Changing patterns of globalisationThe uncertain future of liberal democracyResponses to Migration

Austerity and theretrenchment of thestate

The degree to which the State withdraws orchanges its role in the lives of citizens

Changing face of public servicesRelative economic performanceChanging patterns of globalisation

1World Economic Forum, The Future Role of Civil Society, World Scenario Series, January 2013

drivers of change for the third sector