Futures study - IZT€¦ · Axel Biermann, Ruhr Tourismus GmbH Stefan Lohnert, SevenCenters of...

1

Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping

our industry

Futures study

2

3

Preface . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4 Petra Hedorfer (GNTB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Matthias Schultze (GCB) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Partners and supporters of the study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6

Situation and challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10

Megatrends . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12 Globalisation and internationalisation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14 "Peak Everything" – Shortage of resources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 Urbanisation – City of the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 Demographic change, feminisation and diversity . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 Technology in work and life . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32 Sustainable development . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38 Mobility in the future . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44 Safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48

Scenarios . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 Architecture . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 Transfer of knowledge . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 62 Technology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 68

Summary of study results . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74

Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .84 Methodology . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84 References . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 86 Participants in the futures study . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 88 Glossary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90

Solely for reasons of better readability, we use the masculine form only for gender-specific terms in our study. This includes both genders as a matter of course.

Contents

Table of Contents

4

Preface

“It is not our task to predict the future but to be well-prepared for it.” PERICLES (5TH CENTURY BEFORE CHRIST)

5

When it comes to the rating of destinations for meetings and conventions, Germany has always been in the top range of all important international rankings. But it would be careless to rely on the assumption that this favourable situation would automatically continue.

Due to globalisation and technology, increasing mobility and the constantly evolving idea of sustainability, the general circumstances are subject to rapid change. The German Convention Bureau has made it their business to determine the challenges we might be facing in the years to come, and the measures that might be suitable to maintain our success as a meeting and convention destination on a high level or even increase it in the future.

To paint a detailed picture of probable future developments in the meeting and convention business, the GCB has prepared this study with the support of a wide selection of industry partners. The joint preparation for the challenges we will be facing bears many opportunities for further growth!

With reference to eight generally applicable so-called "megatrends", numerous fields of activity may be derived for our industry, which shall be further examined in the eight chapters of the study.

Specific scenarios have been designed for this study focussing on architecture, transfer of know ledge and technologies, which provide a good overview of how trends that are currently emerging will develop up until 2030.

The aim of the study will have been reached if a constant dialogue continous and sustainable is established among the players in the industry as well as with representatives of politics and science, which will ideally develop into a continuous process of jointly and collaboratively managing the challenges we will be facing. Against this background, providers and event planners on the one hand can derive individual strategies, and industry associations can use the study to create a common roadmap for the future on the other.

I would like to thank our study partners whose support has clearly enabled us to prepare the study in the given form, the participants in the Delphi surveys, the participants in the interviews and workshops, the numerous industry experts, the representatives of politics and society, the scientists from the most different disciplines and the IZT (Institute for Futures Studies and Technology Assessment).

Preface

Petra Hedorfer, Chief Executive Officer of the German National Tourist Board (GNTB) and Chair of the GCB’s Board of Directors

Matthias Schultze, Managing Director of the GCB German Convention Bureau

6

Study partners

Gerrit Jessen, MCI Deutschland GmbH

Joachim König, EVVC European Association of Event Centres

"Globalisation, unlimited mobility and sustainability: these are only three factors which have a large impact on conventions and events already today. We participate in the study to be able to identify future trends early, using them to develop recom-mendations for our customers. As a global agency, we regularly invest in research concerning the event indus-try in our core markets."

In your opinion, which will be the most

important challenges in the area of meetings and

conventions of the future, and why have

you participated in the study?

"For the EVVC, the crucial challenge is to inform the members of the association in a comprehensive way about trends, outlooks and concepts regarding possible future develop-ments, identifying critical develop-ments for the event industry early on and mastering them. The biggest challenge will be to recognise the changes to be made to event formats in the future. The demographic de-velopment with an increasingly older, more colourful and feminine society will also show its impact on the meet-ing and convention industry – both on the participants and on the staff. Our reason to participate in the study is to learn new approaches in thinking, novel ideas and opportunities regard-ing this topic."

Study partners

7

Study partners

Axel Biermann, Ruhr Tourismus GmbH

Stefan Lohnert, SevenCenters of Germany

Heike Mahmoud, visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office

"The Ruhr metropolitan area as the third-largest urban agglomeration in Europe reflects the societal mega-trends like a melting pot. Examples of the future-oriented change in the region are the former coal mines which are now used as locations for events and meetings, and Innova-tionCity Ruhr, a project regarding a climate-friendly reconstruction of a model city.

We have participated in the study because we would like to obtain new findings to implement this new spirit of innovation of the region in meet-ings and convention tourism too."

"The most important challenge in our industry is as simple as difficult: to be able to constantly adapt to the framework conditions which are changing in an increasingly fierce way and markedly faster. Those can be space-related, technical but also legal requirements – and this in an international context.

The study is an important oppor-tunity to mutually bring us up to speed, comparing our activities to the actions of the top players in the industry in addition."

"Conventions and meetings represent an important part of knowledge trans-fer and personal exchange of informa-tion. Markets and customer behaviour are changing at a breathtaking speed, almost in parallel with the technologi-cal evolution of society. One of our tasks is to provide strong networks and platforms for innovation and trends to our Berlin customers. The integration of science in this process, as is currently realised by the German Convention Bureau, is an important contribution for the meeting industry, not only in Germany but all over the world. Berlin is one of the leading convention destinations of the world. We have participated in this study in order to learn the requirements of the future."

Study partners

8

Study partners

EDITOR OF THE STUDY

STUDY PARTNERS

9

Supporters

SUPPORTERS OF THE STUDY

German National Tourist Board

10

Situation and challengesReliable information about the future and the identification of actionable options for shaping that future are more and more urgently required to be able to master the big challenges of globalisation, rapid societal change and the tech-nological and scientific changes both in terms of the seizing of opportunities and the assessment of risks.

Introduction

Future Study: Fields of actionFuture ScenariosStatement from Experts

Futurology: Desktop Research, Delphi Survey, Interviews with Experts, Scenario Workshop, Online Workshop

Megatrends

Measures and

Suggestions2014: Development

of a Roadmap

11

Introduction

In the past decades, meetings and

conventions have developed into sig-

nificant economic factors with compara-

tively good prospects for the future. In

Germany, 2.97 million events hosting

362 million participants were held in

2012. Among all meeting and conven-

tion destinations, Germany is presently

the number one location in Europe and

number two in the world - after the

U.S.A.

An important reason for the unchal-

lenged position as European market

leader is Germany’s excellent infrastruc-

ture. A broad network of providers from

various industries offers ideal prerequi-

sites for the organisation of successful

meetings and conventions. The wide

range of top-class meeting hotels,

congress centres and event locations is

of particular importance here, as is the

excellent value for money. And the trans-

port connections with more than 40 air-

ports, an extensive railway network and

well developed motorways are unique

as well. In addition, German providers

distinguish themselves by their high

power of innovation and their leading

position in the area of "Green Meetings"

and sustainability, for example.

"Meetings and conventions 2030: A study of

megatrends shaping our industry" shall con-

tribute to the efforts aimed at safeguarding

that power of innovation. This study identi-

fies, analyses and evaluates trends and

drifts with regard to their expected develop-

ment until 2030 and their significance for

the meeting and convention industry. The

aim is to bring attention to relevant trends

early on to allow the industry to respond

in time, thereby protecting and further

expanding Germany’s successful position

as a meeting and convention destination.

The providers and meeting organisers of

today shall be offered a tool for shaping the

meeting and convention industry of tomor-

row, to be able to efficiently go along with

developments, and partly even influence or

control them.

Events promote innovation

The meeting and convention industry in

its multifaceted appearance is particularly

affected by the ever increasing complexity

of the modern world. Meetings, conven-

tions and events serve as platforms for

exchanging experiences and ideas. For

this reason, their successful organisation

also depends on numerous contextual

conditions and prerequisites – and this

is not likely to change during the next

few decades. By forming

a basis for an exchange of

information and the transfer

of knowledge and support-

ing all aspects of education,

events also promote innova-

tion. In this way, they gener-

ate impulses for political,

economic, scientific, and so-

cial processes, serving as an

instrument for international

understanding in addition. All the more,

significant players need to identify and

communicate future-oriented topics early

on and integrate them in their business

strategies. Modern scientific futurology

may make a material contribution here,

providing support and stimulation.

A tool for the meeting and convention industry of tomorrow

Recognised experts from all relevant

scientific disciplines as well as partners

and members of the German Convention

Bureau were involved in the scientific

work in a targeted way, contributing their

expertise to this study.

Proven methods of modern scientific

futurology were used for preparing the

study: in addition to guideline-based

interviews with international and national

experts, these included scientific trend

analyses, a two-step Delphi survey of se-

lected international and national experts, a

broad online survey within the industry on

the further development of the meeting

and convention industry and a process-

oriented and participatorily designed

outlining of scenarios. Initially, this study

gives an overview of the current situation

of the meeting and convention industry.

Based on that, selected social megatrends

especially important to the industry are

described: globalisation, shortage of re-

sources, urban development, demographic

change, feminisation and diversity, mecha-

nisation and digitalisation, sustainable

development, mobility and safety.

These developments are very plausible

and likely; due to the complexity of the

individual developments, the descrip-

tions shall not serve as "forecasts",

however. They shall rather stimulate the

reader to imagine various and multifac-

eted possible developments which are

interconnected in addition.

DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE INDIVIDUAL DEVELOPMENTS, THE DESCRIPTIONS INCLUDED IN THE STUDY SHALL NOT SERVE AS FORECASTS. THEY SHALL RATHER STIMULATE THE READER TO IMAGINE VARIOUS POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS.

12

Megatrends

Globalisation and

internationalisation

Sustainable development

Demographic change, feminisation and diversity

„Peak Everything"

Mobility in the future

Urbanisation – city of the future

Safety

Technology in work and life

13

Megatrends

An important starting point for futures studies based on scientific facts is the concept of "megatrends" which is also used for the given study. Trends in general indicate factors resulting from change and innovation.

Megatrends are long-term overall transformations encompassing a long time frame and demonstrating a wide reach as well as high impact and stability. They can be experienced by anyone, as they lead to a paradigm shift or reorientation e.g. in politics, during leisure time, at work, and in the structures of value creation (in the meeting and convention industry, for example), thus resulting in overall change.

The term "megatrend" was created by John Naisbitt, a U.S. trend researcher, in his book of the same name in 1982. Today, four characteristic features are attributed to a megatrend:

» Stability: exists for at least two decades

» Omnipresence: has an effect on all areas of life

» Universality: is of a basically global character despite regional differences

» Robustness: survives even temporary setbacks

Megatrends

14

MEGATREND

Globalisation and internationalisation

Megatrends | Globalisation and internationalisation

15

Contrary to previous ages, the kind of glo-

balisation which has been observable dur-

ing the past decades is a process impacting

the entire surface of our planet. This pro-

cess is multifaceted and can be identified

in almost all areas of social life. It immedi-

ately involves more and more population

groups on all continents. Increasing global

interrelations between areas like economy,

politics, social life, culture, communica-

tion and environment can be seen. The

complexity of global relationships grows

on the level of individuals, institutions,

states, companies and associations as well

as supranational organisations such as the

European Union.

This consolidation of relationships be-

tween states in particular is referred to

as internationalisation. Development is

directed away from merely national politics

and towards the consolidation with and

delegation of regulation competences to

supranational and international institu-

tions.

Globalisation indicators

Almost all of the indicators for globalisation

such as individual mobility, goods transport

volume, communication and internet access

are pointing upward. The same applies to

the areas of culture, language and politics.

International legal relations are increas-

ing, as is the number of organisations, the

importance of non-governmental organisa-

tions is growing.

SOFI futures studies

As part of an international think tank - the

"Millennium Project" - futurologists and

masterminds gather information about fu-

tures studies, and produce the "State of the

Future Index" (SOFI) annually. The research-

ers assess areas indicating an improvement

or deterioration during the past 20 years,

projecting them over the next 10 years into

the future. The latest SOFI stated: •


Foreign participants in events in Germany (in millions)

14.316.6 17.5 16.6

18.719.9

22.1

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

*Forecast based on the average annual change rate for the period 2006-2012, EITW

2020: A total of 80 million overnight stays by foreign guests in Germany

2010

60m

+14mEurope

+4mAsia, Arabic Gulf

States

+2mAmericas

2020

80m

SOU

RCE

: GN

TB F

OR

ECA

ST

16

Professor Dr. Ulrich Reinhardt, Scientific Head at the FOUNDATION FOR FUTURE STUDIES (BAT – British American Tobacco)

"There is less poverty in the world, fewer

infectious diseases, and less war. People are

living longer, the literacy rate is growing,

more women are in public offices and the

internet is more widespread than ever".

b For further information please refer to

www.gcb.de/en/future

Localisation and diversity as countertrendAs is the case with all megatrends, globali-

sation is no monolithic process. There are

opposing trends like the important phenom-

enon of "glocalisation" or localisation, where

local and traditional aspects are strength-

ened. At a cultural level, diversity and variety

are, in part, a result of globalisation. For

globally acting companies, this means that

they have to better take into account the re-

quirements of local customers and markets

despite the increasing homogenisation in

many product areas. This is especially true

for the meeting and convention industry.

In view of the rapidly changing framework

conditions, the significance of meetings

and conventions distributed over several

locations and countries is growing. Now it is

even more important to know perceptions

and backgrounds from the various markets,

countries and people in order to plan and

react correctly.

Globalisation as a dynamical process

The forms of globalisation represent a com-

prehensive and powerful process causing

different interests to arise which may be of

international impact.

b "Global Trends 2030": further link at

www.gcb.de/en/future

Increasing efforts to achieve "global governance"

Against the background of existing and pos-

sibly arising economic, technological, eco-

logical and sociocultural challenges, the ef-

forts to achieve "global governance" should

intensify. Understanding and concerted

action ("coalitions of the willing" in climate

protection, for example) will be agreed upon

more often in the future.

Due to globalisation, meetings and conven-tions will have to become even more interna-tional. What does this mean in detail for the meeting and conventions industry in Germany during the next two decades?

"Due to the international competition between destina-

tions, the participation in conventions will also depend on

the ability and willingness to pay for such participation in

view of economic crises. The attendance at events in far

away countries might decrease also because of the time

needed and the associated efforts. In any case, intercultur-

al skills have to be strengthened and technological options

need to be utilised in a targeted way."

•


17

» Taking into account patterns of expectation, lan-

guages, cultural behaviours as well as ways of com-

munication and interaction when preparing and

organising successful meetings and conventions

(including the use of technology)

» Qualification and further education measures for the

strengthening of intercultural sensitivity, language

skills and attentive manners of communication

» Investing in market research and education

» Forming strategic marketing alliances

» Intensified competition with emerging destinations

such as the BRICS states

» Adapting to a new range of participants from the emerg-

ing destinations

» Growing importance of meeting locations and events

as an essential platform for the increasing processes of

clarification and networking

» Increasing requirements in the area of intercultural

skills / sensitivity

» Measures» Challenges

INTERCULTURAL SKILLS GROW MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT.

ConclusionsWith globalisation, the international competi-

tion among former competitors in the German

meeting and convention industry will aggra-

vate. In addition, there are emerging destina-

tions such as the BRICS states. Initially, they

will be attractive mainly within a regionally

limited area, but later develop global attrac-

tiveness depending on their international

orientation – especially in view of the prosper-

ing economies and the growing middle class

of those regions which are of special relevance

for meetings and conventions.

During the course of the progressing interna-

tionalisation and globalisation of the markets

and societal structures, the meeting and con-

vention industry will gain in importance. Suit-

ably equipped meeting locations and events

are an essential prerequisite for the increasing

processes of clarification and networking. For

globally acting organisations in particular, ef-

ficient exchange of information and transfer of

knowledge are of particular importance as their

market position and services are mainly based

on the development and leveraging of intel-

lectual resources.

Patterns of expectation, languages, cultural

behaviours as well as ways of communication

and interaction will need to be taken into con-

sideration even more in the future. This applies

to salutations, for example, religious rituals,

necessary meeting breaks and locations for

prayer, forms of contact and taboos, holidays

and food culture.

But the local ambience of event locations is im-

portant as well and has to meet international

requirements and competitive criteria. Against

the background of increasing globalisation,

destinations are facing the challenge to better

concentrate their forces. Ideally, they will jointly

try to attract events, participants and guests

using a coordinated or even shared strategy.


18

MEGATREND

"Peak Everything" – Shortage of resources

Megatrends | Peak Everything

19


Since the beginning of industriali-sation, the consumption of natural resources has increased hugely all over the world. Several resources are clearly facing depletion, which partly results in their prices significantly increasing. Environmental stress may affect regions worldwide, influencing the utilisation of resources. At the same time, the global population of currently around 7 billion people will have grown to around 9 billion by the year 2050, which will additionally ag-gravate the problem.

Climate change

The consequences are visible in climate

change. Between 1970 and 2000 the portion

of CO2 in the atmosphere increased by 1.5

parts per million (ppm) per year - since then,

it has been increasing by 2.1 ppm per year.

The developed as well as the developing

countries are responsible for more than 80

per cent of those emissions. Although they

have committed to reducing emissions in

the meantime, this commitment will not be

sufficient to reduce CO2 concentration in an

adequate way.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPPC) had actually expected the

given changes of the weather and climate to

occur only after 2020.

With the so-called "Earth Overshoot Day",

the Global Footprint Network has pointed

out for years when the yearly available

environmental budget would be con-

sumed each year. In the year 2013, this was

20 August instead of 31 December: this

means that mankind had consumed the

environmental budget for the whole year

within only eight months. In 2011, the budget

had lasted for around one month longer:

until 27 September.

IN 2013, THE "EARTH OVERSHOOT DAY" - THE DAY WHEN THE YEARLY AVAILABLE ENVIRONMENTAL BUDGET IS DEPLETED - WAS 20 AUGUST.

•

Consumption of natural resources

100%

135%

In 2011, mankind consumed 135% of the resources generated by nature

QU

ELLE

: FO

OTP

RIN

TNET

WO

RK

.OR

G

20

Consequences of the climate changeIt is expected that extreme weather

events will occur more often, which may

affect the areas of infrastructure or

technology, for example, posing a social,

economic and ecological challenge for

the international community. Within the

global context, Germany needs to better

prepare for the consequences of climatic

changes as well.

Efficient utilisation of resources and social responsibilitySo far, societies respond with technologi-

cal innovations and individual measures.

Resource efficiency is increased and

renewable resources are used. Companies

respond to the increasing requirements

by means of activities in the areas of

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and

Corporate Citizenship (CC).

In addition to those activities, further

measures to meet the challenges are con-

ceivable, such as restrictions for resource-

intensive products and services.

Work-life balanceApart from ecological stress there is also

stress in the social and cultural areas: ac-

celeration and omnipresent performance

requirements and performance increases

are more and more depleting personal re-

sources as well. Against the background of

this development, work-life balance will play

an increasingly important role.

•

Astrid Messmer Rodriguez, Head of Business Area Strategy and Coordinator of the Corporate Responsibility Council, Deutsche Lufthansa AG

Due to resource bottlenecks, climate change and the environmental burden, the social, economic and ecological problems already visible today will have further increased by 2030. Which measures do you take to meet the challenges?

"The Lufthansa Group has been working for years on meet-

ing people's growing need for mobility in a way which is as

environmentally-friendly as possible. In the area of climate

protection, the Group has big plans and has set itself am-

bitious targets. Our environmental targets are guided by

the industry's established four-pillar strategy which links

various environmentally-relevant measures. They range

from technological progress, via an improved infrastruc-

ture and operational measures right through to economic

instruments. In addition to investments of billions in new,

particularly efficient and quiet aircraft, we are involved

in numerous trend-setting projects which sustainably

improve the environmental compatibility of flying."


21

» Challenges » Limits to natural resources, resulting in price increases

and global environmental burden

» Disturbances to infrastructure and technology and

impairment of mobility as a consequence of extreme

weather events and climatic changes

» Rising importance of work-life balance due to omni-

present acceleration, performance requirements and

performance increases

» Measures » Consistent ecological and sustainable organisation

of meetings and conventions and corresponding

promotion

» Construction of convention buildings, energy

generation and utilisation of resources, air condition-

ing, catering and framework programme adapted to

the overall requirements

» Standardisation and certification based on the

principles of sustainability for many segments

of event organisation (including sustainable and

intelligent traffic concepts)

» Adequate consideration of elements of psychosocial

regeneration as an essential need of the participants

APPROACHES DIRECTED AT ECOLOGICAL AND SUSTAINABLY ORGANISED MEETINGS AND CONVENTIONS ARE BECOMING MORE IMPORTANT.

ConclusionsThe meeting and convention industry is

affected by shortage of resources, climate

change and stress in several ways. Ap-

proaches directed at ecological and sustain-

ably organised meetings and conventions will

therefore certainly increase in importance. The

requirements for sustainable actions increase,

extending to all areas of conducting meetings

and conventions: from the resource-sparing

construction of buildings, energy genera-

tion, efficient utilisation of resources and air

conditioning, through to the catering and the

framework programme. Not least the demands

regarding the organisers of meetings and

conventions and their expertise in terms of

sustainable activities are increasing as well.

In the future, the certification standards for

sustainable events should play a decisive role,

both in terms of transparency and scientific

integrity.

The consequences of climate change will have

a varying impact on the different regions.

Accordingly, the kinds of impairment will also

differ greatly. Local extreme weather events

can affect infrastructure and mobility. In addi-

tion, speakers may not be able to show for the

meeting, and deliveries may be delayed. In cit-

ies with a high frequency of heat waves, equip-

ping the convention buildings with powerful

air conditioning systems or other technical

solutions will be very important. Depending on

the climate, additional costs for prevention and

damage handling will arise.

With regard to personal stress, offers taking

into account psychosocial regeneration as

well might meet the participants’ need for

relaxation. Attractively packaged solutions

for speakers and participants might generate

added value for the event, which makes the

journey and participation more "rewarding" in a

professional, touristic and personal sense.


22

MEGATREND

Urbanisation – City of the future

Megatrends | Urbanisation

23

The process of urbanisation has been going on for centuries and is not likely to end soon. In 1975, 38 per cent of the global population lived in cities, in 2008 it was more than half, and in 2030 it will be more than 60 per cent according to a United Nations report. Even in already strongly urbanised Ger-many, where three fourths of the population are living in cities, the areas of high population density and metropolitan areas are still growing despite the total popula-tion being decreasing.

A specific characteristic of the urbanisa-

tion process is the so-called megacity.

Depending on the definition, metropo-

lises with at least ten million inhabitants

and polycentric agglomerations with

several centres are included (McGee

1998). Accordingly, the Rhein-Ruhr

metropolitan area with its far more than

13 million inhabitants also counts among

the megacities (UN 2004). Due to their

growing number, enormous size and

rapid development megacities will have

gained in importance all over the world

by 2030. They are focal points of globali-

sation processes and – which should not

be underestimated – locations for inter-

national meetings and congresses in a

world which is more and more dominated

by cities.

Progressing urbanisation on the one

hand is accompanied by settlement

areas (mainly smaller cities) which are

being depleted in the course of the

increasing concentration of the popula-

tion on the other. Such "shrinking cities"

can be observed in developed countries

in particular.

Temporary usage concepts

It can be expected that by 2030 even

more people than today will use flexible

forms of living and working. Be it for a

business or private reason – temporary

living and working solutions in various

forms and price categories will gain im-

portance in the future. Unoccupied areas

and buildings in cities may easily become

especially lively locations of temporary

"intermediate usage". The meeting and

convention industry can also benefit

from this fact by locating meetings and

events exactly at those places of innova-

tive culture production and vivid publicity

which initially cannot be developed by ur-

ban planning and the real estate market

in this manner.

Intelligent technologies

In the year 2030, the city as a focal point

of human life and important location

for events will have to rely on intel-

ligent technologies for an efficient and

networked infrastructure. It is essential

to establish smart technologies as in-

novative solutions to the requirements

faced by cities in various areas of living

and working.


Due to their enormous size and rapid development, megacities will have gained in importance as focal points of globalisation all over the world by 2030. Which design potentials have to be devel-oped and which approach do you follow with respect to this trend? What does Berlin currently do to achieve its goals?

Heike Mahmoud, CMP, Director Conventions, visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office

"For conventions, the increasing

urbanisation is a challenge which can

be mastered using special service,

regional integration and attractive

additional offers. The specific address-

ing of target groups and customised

touristic offers with local colouring are

increasingly important in international

competition. Apart from that we try

to offer special benefits by means of

concrete sustainability projects. Berlin

has become part of an international

network. As a member of the "BestCi-

ties Global Alliance" of ten leading

convention cities worldwide, we offer a

powerful network and tailored services

for any customer. The services are re-

viewed and certified annually by Lloyds

Registered Quality Assurance. In this

manner, we can offer our customers

great added value. Berlin is one of the

most diverse metropolises in Europe: a

trendsetter in an international context,

vivid art and design capital, a city that

is constantly changing. Those capaci-

ties and innovations have an increasing

impact on the contents of meetings

and conventions. The know-how of

the city leaves its mark on the events

in form of key notes or best practices.

A win-win situation for both sides for

shaping the future."

•

24


•

» Challenges » Increasing requirements especially for megacities as

focal points of globalisation processes and central

locations for international meetings and conventions

» Need for a stronger differentiation of destinations due

to a more fierce competitive situation

» Measures » Improvement of accessibility and connectivity as

well as cultural attractiveness

» Support of the local environs: cityscape, cultural

offers, aesthetic appeal, and exotic environment

conditions, while at the same time ensuring safety

» Identification of economic and scientific

competences

» Formation of clusters and strategic alliances

ConclusionsSince their historic emergence, cities have

been creative spaces for social, economic,

ecological and political innovations. Due to

their social density and close work-sharing

network, concentration of knowledge and

infrastructures, they have always played

a special future-oriented role. Cities

allow for a close and quick exchange of

information between the social players – a

prerequisite for sound strategies. This is

the reason why urban areas have been

locations for the organisation of meetings

and conventions for a long time and will

be in the future.

In international and greater regional

competition between cities and regions to

become event locations, the individually

suitable cities and city networks need to

be identified and promoted. For the fu-

ture, questions regarding accessibility and

connectivity will arise in particular. Aside

from that, the individual characteristics of

a city or urban area will play an important

role. A city’s appearance, cultural offers or

special conditions of the surroundings are

decisive criteria for participation in events

to some target groups. Hospitality, safety,

language, tolerance and openness are

some of the "soft criteria" for the compe-

tition. Today, some "famous" events are

already located in rather small cities, such

as the "World Economic Forum" in Davos.

Direct shaping of such parameters is

difficult and can be mastered in the long

run only. Bilbao has been successful: with

urban design measures and enormous

costs, like for the Guggenheim Museum

designed by top architect Gehry, very high

numbers of visitors and economic growth

rates have been generated. But the "Bil-

bao effect" is based on special constella-

tions and can not be imitated or repeated.

Nevertheless, this example of success

shows that it makes sense to think

holistically and for the medium term. Or

develop a local leitmotiv where the most

different players can get involved and con-

tribute. For some destinations, this might

also mean to emphasise and cultivate

qualities like calm, a feeling of security,

cosiness, nature, etc.

Another variant is made up of urban

centres that are able to distinguish them-

selves by means of local colouring. Mainly

large urban areas such as Berlin, Munich

or the Ruhr Metropolitan Area can still

position themselves in the international

market, while providers in other urban

areas may rely on regional demand. But

even here, attractive offers and formats

are conceivable which meet the require-

ments of certain target groups, if the

relevant profiling is carried out especially

by means of successful customer loyalty

programmes. In general, the objective will

be to use and communicate the "endog-

enous potential" in an intelligent and

future-oriented way.

25

26

MEGATREND

Demographic change, feminisation and diversity

Megatrends | Demographic change, feminisation and diversity

27


Demographic change primarily describes the quantitative changes in the population. According to a UN estimation from 2010, the world’s population will grow from 7 billion to 8.3 billion people in the course of the next 20 years. In addition, the rising life expectancy will lead to an ageing of the population. Today, 760 mil-lion people on earth are older than 60 years. By the year 2030, that number will probably have almost doubled.

The demographic processes up to the year

2030 vary between individual regions —

in terms of the indicators of number of

inhabitants and births, life expectancy,

ageing of the population and immigration

or migration. For the developed coun-

tries, basically a population decrease with

simultaneous ageing of the population and

a correspondingly strong increase of the

number of people no longer working due to

their age are expected. For the developing

and emerging countries, population growth

with simultaneous regional agglomerations

of inhabitants is forecasted.

Development in Germany: absolute decline in population and more older peopleAccording to a population forecast by the

Bertelsmann Foundation from 2011, the

number of people living in Germany will

have reduced from currently 80.2 million to

around 77 million inhabitants by the year

2030. The number of persons of a working

age between 20 and 65 years will probably

have decreased from currently around 50

million to 36-39 million people.

Aside from this absolute decline in popula-

tion, the age structure will also change

significantly. In 2030, every other person

will be older than 49 years (in 2009 by

comparison, this so-called median age

was 44 years). The age group from 19 to 24

years will have strongly decreased by 2030,

and thus also the potential new blood for

companies and employers. Contrary to all

Lifelong learning becomes a necessity, just as the increasingly location-independent social acti-vation of people. In your point of view, which are the challenges the persons concerned are facing in this respect?

"Since more and more mobile

phones with internet access are

increasingly common, making

knowledge accessible at any time

at almost any place of the world,

young and older people need to

reconsider their former education

habits."

younger age groups, the age groups of re-

tired persons will exclusively show growth.

The general ageing of the population is

especially obvious regarding the develop-

ment of the number of people that are over

80 years old.

Global perspective: growing middle class — more potential participants in events

Thanks to the growing middle class in nu-

merous countries of the world, the event

industry will have to familiarise itself with

this new target group and thus can expect

a correspondingly high potential of new at-

tendees of meetings and conventions.

Feminisation of society

According to the work "On the Process

of Civilisation" (1939) by well-known

Guido Brombach, Head of CompetenceCentre Digital Communications,Education and Media of the GermanTrade Union Confederation, Hattingen

•

28


•

•

German sociologist Norbert Elias, a

refinement of customs and manners

has been observed for centuries. Physi-

cal strength and other characteristics

defined as being "masculine" lose

in relevance — not least due to the

economic and technological change.

The transition to a knowledge society

leads to marked changes in qualifica-

tion profiles and job markets: char-

acteristics that are considered to be

rather "feminine", such as team spirit,

social competence and multitasking

skills, grow in importance. The growing

portion of women with Abitur (school

leaving examination qualifying for uni-

versity admission; 56 per cent in 2008)

and with university degree (52.9 per

cent in 2008) is an indicator for the rise

in importance of women in all areas of

society (source: German Federal Statis-

tics Office 2012).

Dr. Ulrike Regele, Head of the Department for Trade and Tourism, The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag, DIHK e.V.)

In the future, further diversi-fication can be expected for meetings and conventions as well. Feminisation, interna-tional attendees and acces-sibility are key words for the next decades. What would be the best response by the industry, what measures would make sense?

"The audience is becoming more and

more heterogeneous and international.

Here it will make sense to enhance

the qualifications in some areas, with

regard to language skills or adequate

conduct towards guests from other

cultures, for example. Internships in

foreign countries are one possibility

of how to prepare employees for such

challenges — and they are also offered

for apprentices by the way. Cross-

cultural training sessions, workshops on

intercultural skills are other options the

providers can choose."

Individualisation and diversity

In general, an "individualisation" (Beck/

Beck-Gernsheim 1994) has been observed

for decades, which includes "de-tradi-

tionalisation" in particular. People no

longer need to conform with traditions so

much and can live according to their indi-

vidual needs and beliefs. This leads to a

change in a number of thinking patterns

and role standards, and completely new

perceptions of life and lifestyles arise.

In total, the range of role variants is be-

coming wider ("diversity"). Globalisation

(particularly migration) and democratisa-

tion contribute to that change.

Feminisation and the change towards

diversity are quasi omnipresent in every-

day life. Multiculturality is obvious, and

fashion, appearance, ideals of beauty,

sexuality, language, music, and role mod-

els in films show wide variations.

In view of future generations, today’s

young people are already extremely

versatile. As estimated in youth studies,

"there are more than 600 persisting

youth cultures, so-called ‘artificial tribes’,

today — many of them invented by

industry of course — (…), and youths at

an age of 11-19 years pass through six to

eight of those cultures on average, often

belonging to two or three youth cultures

simultaneously. In general, young people

of the 21st century are true ‘sampling ge-

niuses’." (Klaus Farin: generation-kick.de

– Jugendsubkulturen heute. Munich 2001,

p. 206).

Aside from the numerous effects of

that change, the challenge arises not to

categorise individual persons too quickly

but perceive them with their whole and

special character, accept them and act

correspondingly. Attentiveness, mindful-

ness, self-reflection, and tolerance are

needed here, but cannot be offered by

everyone.

PEOPLE NO LONGER NEED TO CONFORM WITH TRADITIONS SO MUCH AND CAN LIVE ACCORDING TO THEIR INDIVIDUAL NEEDS AND BELIEFS.

29

30

Demographic change will have a strong

impact on the meeting and conventions

industry — on the future availability of

staff and economic dynamics in Germany,

for example. The population development

implies especially strong restrictions with

regard to the availability of apprentices

and young professionals.

In the years up to 2030, demographic

change might affect the German meeting

and conventions industry in specialised

and innovation-dependent areas in

particular — and may have different ef-

fects in different regions. It is expected

that the number of qualified staff from

foreign countries employed here will

rise. This means that the industry as

an employer will need to identify the

regionally differing trends and challenges

already early and take them into account

in their decisions. This applies to design

and infrastructures within the buildings

but also to modernisation and layout

of workplaces. The range of education

and qualification offers will need to

be adapted accordingly as well or even

extended individually.

Preventive health management and life-

long learning will rise in importance with

regard to ageing staff and the activation

of currently not employed people for the

job market. Aside from the expected

challenges in the human resources area,

further aspects will need to be consid-

ered. The trend of single-child families,

for example, might lead to rising expecta-

tions and demands regarding events,

requiring more support and other services

— or an increased attentiveness towards

the attendees.

From the perspective of ageing custom-

ers, accessibility in a broader sense, i.e.

including visual and acoustic aspects,

will become an essential criterion for

attractiveness, comfort, and satisfac-

tion. The organisers and service providers

will have to show higher willingness as

well as the ability to respond to special

requirements and needs of visitors and

attendees or take them into account

already beforehand. From the changes

during the course of demographic devel-

opment, feminisation and the general

diversity of lifestyles results the demand

to take into account the individuality of

people and their needs in all situations

and any context. In the course of equal

opportunities / integration of women in

all areas of the job sector and public life,

changes have become obvious: there are

female heads of government, soldiers,

Conclusions


•

In the course of time: meeting and convention attendees today and in 2030

Smartphone

Smart glasses Google Glass

In-ear phones

Daniel salaried, male, 42 years old,

married, two children, born in Germany, living in Cologne

Xiaomengself-employed, female,

58 years old, single, born in China,

living in New York

I

2013 2030

SmartphoneTablet PC

EarphonesCamera

USB stickPower supply units

Business cardsNote pad

PensDaily paper

ProgrammeAttendee card

ID cardCredit card

Railway cardFlight ticket

Car keysHotel card

Cash

The graphics are based on the development of megatrends and the results of the Delphi survey.

31

» Challenges » Markedly ageing population which stays active for a

longer time » Rise in importance of "female values" and skills due to

social and cultural developments » Perception of any person as an individual, applying

attentiveness, mindfulness, and tolerance » Changed motivations and aspirations of the younger

generation

» Measures » Early identification of regionally differing trends and

challenges » Specific layout of infrastructures in new buildings

and modernisations » Adequate layout of workplaces, age management,

and improvement of the employers’ attractiveness by internships also in foreign countries and qualification measures, for example

» Prevention of burnout by means of sabbaticals and suitable work-life balance

» Equipping locations for accessibility with walking frames, acoustic amplification

» Specific addressing by means of interactive convention formats

conductors, architects, etc. There are

allocations of quotas and infrastructural

changes. Demographic change requires

similar adjustments for older people, for

example. The same applies for people

with disabilities, special needs or skills

(accessibility, sign language in some TV

programmes). Moreover, the complex

integration processes for immigrants are

being developed. Those topics will prob-

ably be an important challenge for the

organisation of events even beyond the

year 2030.

PREVENTIVE HEALTH MANAGEMENT AND LIFELONG LEARNING WILL RISE IN IMPORTANCE WITH REGARD TO AGEING STAFF AND THE ACTIVATION OF CURRENTLY NOT EMPLOYED PEOPLE FOR THE JOB MARKET.


32

MEGATREND

Technology in work and life

Megatrends | Technology

33


Modern technologies, especially in the information and communication areas, will further rapidly change the living and working environments of people up to the year 2030. Numer-ous devices and products are increas-ingly equipped with embedded logical components constantly enhancing their range of functions. The hidden systems consist of not much more than tiny processors, some memory and software. They have been inte-grated in more and more components of building automation as well as sound, light and stage technology, but also in mobile end devices, routers and displays.

At the same time, increasing networking

of those systems and devices both among

each other and in local networks, mobile

networks and the Internet can be observed.

Any objects become identifiable, can be

localised and correlated with each other.

They may be passive, just allowing identifi-

cation, or process information themselves

and respond actively to changes. Objects of

daily life become "smart objects" which are

linked, respond actively to their environment

and interact with their users. Whether within

a meeting room or on different continents:

information about the most different objects

can be linked, exchanged and processed.

Given the constant further development and

distribution of technologies in economy and

society, the relationship between man and

technology will have significantly changed

by 2030. The area of interaction between

man and technology and its shaping with

regard to various kinds of usage is of sig-

nificant importance here. Whether through

touch, movement or language — innovative,

so-called "natural" man-machine interfaces

allow more and more novel forms of interac-

tion and communication.

INNOVATIVE, SO-CALLED "NATURAL" MAN-MACHINE INTERFACES ALLOW MORE AND MORE NOVEL FORMS OF INTERACTION AND COMMUNICATION.

•

Man-machine interfaces

Interface

Motor activity

Sensor system

Example for usage:At the beginning of the first break of an event, an attendee asks his smartphone (interface) with voice recognition: “Where ist the co�ee station where my colleagues are waiting?”. On an interactive map, his own position and the colleagues’ position are displayed.

34


"Basically we observe a trend towards more and more complex customer demands. Customers desire multi-zone acoustic irradiation with sophisticated recordings, lighting of sceneries accord-ing to TV standard to allow camera use, and state-of-the-art lighting technol-ogy. In the media technology area, the different methods are merged in a playful way. Live camera broadcasts are displayed together with PowerPoint presentations and films, for example, on unformatted and partly three-dimen-sional objects by means of projection or LED. The overall impression is comple-mented by means of teleprompting, voting and videoconference technology. Technology is rapidly developing further, becomes more affordable and easier to handle. Based on our experience, customer expectations and thus also the requirements for event locations have increased in the past years. If a location is not able to meet a requirement due to technological development — also with regard to the existing infrastruc-ture (e.g. ceiling height and load bearing capability) — another location is chosen. This is the reason why the organisers should involve local technology providers with adequate qualifications from the beginning in order to jointly advise the customers and to be able to realise the intended projects. When planning new locations or modernising existing ones it is absolutely necessary that experienced companies be incorporated, in addition to classic architects, to take into consid-eration meaningful technology require-ments early on at the concept stage.

The above-mentioned rapid develop-ment of technology will have decisively changed meetings, conventions and events by the year 2030. Here primar-ily the following technologies come to mind:

» Daylight-compatible display screens (LED and seemless displays) are

How will the requirements for service providers and event centres change in the context of evolving event technology?

Christian Sommer, Cofounder and Managing Partner of AMBION GmbH

becoming more affordable. The same is true of 3D mapping as projection method to three-dimensional objects. This method can be used to present interior views and functional methods of new products, for example. » Touch-sensitive displays and projec-tions generate attentiveness and interaction between the speaker and his audience. » Streaming and webcasts transport the event to any place. Votings, questions and tweets are contributed by partici-pants in real time independent of their individual locations.

In my opinion, mobile device solutions will have the greatest impact on meet-ings and conventions, however. As a kind of "reply channel", they are the logical further development of stream-ing and webcasts providing a method to participate in and contribute to an event remotely. Independent of their location and in real time, the participants can in-fluence the event via votings, questions and tweets.

"Our vision is that a smartphone will provide all information, documents, audio and video data for an event."

Software is individually adapted to the relevant event, giving each participant access via smartphone to information (agenda, lecture contents, speakers), methods of interaction (e.g. voting or Q&A), and communication in the form of Tweet walls and other social media channels. These are only some functions which, in a paperless way and constantly updated by a server, enhance the sus-tainable and measurable result rate of a meeting. Theoretically, events at vari-ous locations of the world may also be connected via the web in this way. The vision is that our smartphone provides all information, documents, audio and

video data for an event. Recurring events are stored there, closed chats and links as well as exchange of contact information between partici-pants are possible. During meetings, participants can be searched for, optionally also by their properties such as home town or hobbies. Via "handshake", a specifically developed method for exchanging contact data, participants may build networks. It makes sense, however, to use mobile devices for a limited time only and establish "mobile-device-free" zones where participants can communicate in person. Sensitive topics of such kind of networking are certainly data protection requirements and the the-oretical possibility of user behaviour being tracked. The systems must respect the participants’ privacy. It is routine for us, for example, to delete all data after an event. In addition, communication data are transmitted encrypted with a code which can be decrypted only by other participants in the convention.

Also very exciting and literally pathbreaking: interactive guiding systems lead through trade fairs and exhibitions — the topic of augmented reality being a promising task for the future."

35

Privacy and data protectionTechnology has a large impact not only on

the development of all economic sectors

but also on broad parts of society and

lifestyle. Novel technologies and their

linking open up many possibilities of

simplifying existing processes in our daily

professional and private life or gener-

ating new options. At the same time,

those developments raise the need for a

general discussion with regard to the role

of publicity and privacy, data protection

and security, for example. The increasing

"dislimitation" between professional and

private life will certainly become a topic in

this context.

Event centres need to develop answers to the questions as to how to operate the rapidly developing and constantly changing applications and gadgets and to use tech-nology to meet the growing requirements of event or-ganisers and attendees on site. Which concrete tech-nological developments do you consider must-haves for the year 2030?

Stefan Rief, Head of Competence Center Workspace Innovation Fraunhofer IAO

•

•


"In the future, the direct method of teaching educational contents will be

increasingly replaced by open learning processes. This will require technologies

playing an essential role for intuitive navigation through the relevant event,

the convention centre and the immediate environment. Real-time information

about "agglomerations of know-how", that is clusters of persons at interest-

ing discussion sites, or similar services can help to give events spontaneity and

make them up to date."

The Internet of Things and Services...Intelligent linking of objects and services via the Internet

Building Environment

ParticipantsOrganisers

Service providers

Event Mobility

Programme status display, programme

information, display of vacant seats, list of

attendees in the room, catering (place, o�er,

waiting times), position of “friends”, ...

Energy consumption, air conditioning data,

oxygen contents, room plan, retreating rooms

status, safety information, WC

facilities status, ...

Options for leasure activities according to individual interests,

hotel capacities, weather forecast, services nearby, ...

Parking status display, travel options (flight,

railway, regional public transport, etc.), taxi

station status, ...

36

In the course of the evolution of technology

in work and life, the use of state-of-the-art

technology in meeting and convention cen-

tres is progressing as well. Sensors, control

elements and other technical units in the

building are being linked and automated. The

purpose is to increase comfort and security

while at the same time reducing energy con-

sumption. Against the background of the de-

mographic development, the needs of older

people should be considered in an increasing

way. Aside from the relevant construction

measures, automation of the building and its

components plays a significant role. In order

to achieve a useful degree of automation,

as many end devices as possible need to be

linked via a central control unit.

In the area of event technology, more

and more specific technology is used: 3D,

interactive apps, etc. Rendering formerly

passive media interactive, by means of QR

codes or RFID chips for example, increasingly

facilitates the retrieval of digital contents on

Will events be held only in virtual rooms in the year 2030?

"No, but the event landscape will further

develop and change during the next 17

years. An essential aspect for participat-

ing in an event is the availability of the

resources needed by the participants

— time and money. There will still be

events of different sizes where direct

contact to other people and the common

experience are in the focus. Meetings

conducted using audio- or videoconfer-

encing already today will account for a

markedly larger part of events as the

use of virtual reality tools allows for a

significantly lower consumption of the

participants’ resources."

In your opinion, how realistic is the assumption that inter-active applications in con-nection with 3D projections will be developed and used by default at meetings and conventions, and could you describe what the event in-dustry expects the key word of "virtual reality" to mean in the future?

"Area-wide usage of technology by the

population also depends on the layout

of the man-machine interface and on

the costs for end devices and software.

When looking at the previous develop-

ment in the field of virtual reality, it

may be anticipated that correspond-

ing visualisation methods will become

increasingly better affordable and

better with regard to technological

quality such that they will penetrate

further into everyday life, becoming

also part of meetings and conventions.

A head-mounted display by Oculus

Rift, for example, costs around 300

euros today, while a few years ago one

would have paid a five-digit amount

for it. 3D display technology for which

glasses are no longer needed (like

Nintendo 3DS) and which can be clearly

viewed from several angles will become

common and decisively influence our

handling of available information. The

same applies to augmented-reality

systems like Google Glasses. This is the

reason why those technologies will be

increasingly used for the provision of

information and as multilateral means

of communication. In compliance with

data protection laws and personal

rights of the participants, it will be

possible to gear meetings and conven-

tions further towards the attendees’

needs such that every attendee will be

able to use his or her time on site more

efficiently and the organisers can adapt

their services better to the customers’

requirements."

Prof. Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg, Managing Director of the Institute of Information Management in Me-chanical Engineering (IMA) at the RWTH Aachen University


• Conclusions

37

» Challenges » Changes to the living and working environments due to

complex technologies leading to still growing require-ments with regard to education and skill building

» Questions emerging with respect to ethical rights in view of the extended range of functions and increasing autonomy of objects, devices, and products

» Increasing merging of virtual and physical worlds: objects become identifiable, can be localised and cor-related with each other

» Stronger interlinkage of the systems, in local net-works, mobile networks and on the Internet, raising questions of security and data protection when han-dling the growing volume of data

» Measures » Increasing security and comfort and reducing the con-

sumption of resources by automating event centres and building networks within the building, e.g. using sensors, actuators, and control elements

» Analysis of the need of older people and other groups of participants (demand cluster) with regard to possible technical support potentials

» "Novel way of constructing" based on a good exchange of information between all persons involved in planning and implementation as well as on current technological developments

» Closer linkage of the marketing to social media measures and live communication

» Technology scouting for an early identifiation of relevant technological trends

site at meetings and conventions. Provided

that corresponding investment budgets exist,

holographic display and storage options at

the event centres allow the creation of entire

digital landscapes where attendees and

speakers can immerse in using their digital al-

ter ego — the avatar. For some event formats,

new translation technologies will offer rel-

evant solutions. In the area of man-machine

interfaces, new adaptive, context-dependent

options of merging language, touch, and

gesture control based on environment sensor

systems are emerging. The language inter-

face is adapted to the relevant social environ-

ment of the user: using smartphones to make

or receive calls during meetings, conventions

or conferences, for example, is prevented by

technical means to avoid unnecessary noise

and disturbances for the other participants.

In addition, more and more people possess

powerful mobile end devices and are always

linked with each other via ever new social

media channels. Merchandising their own

event series, particularly using social media

measures and live communication, becomes

more and more important for organisers in

the meeting and conventions industry. The

highly dynamic development of technology

leads to ever new and growing requirements

of the working environment which can only be

mastered by well-qualified staff. Therefore,

a prerequisite for ensuring economic success

and progress is to constantly adapt and de-

velop the educational and training system in

the meeting and conventions industry.

MERCHANDISING THEIR OWN EVENT SERIES USING SOCIAL MEDIA MEASURES AND LIVE COMMUNICATION BECOMES MORE AND MORE IMPORTANT FOR ORGANISERS IN THE MEETING AND CONVENTIONS INDUSTRY.


38

MEGATREND

Sustainable development

Megatrends | Sustainable Development

39

Megatrends | Sustainable development

Numerous phenomena and indicators point to the fact that the general prin-ciple of "sustainable development" will establish itself as mainstream and will have developed further and become a matter of course by the year 2030.

Within some decades, the priority of sus-

tainable procedures will have become estab-

lished all over the world including countries

initially not having played a leading role in

this field.

However, this approach to future challenges

based on the principles of sustainability

is very ambitious and only possible due

to huge efforts, targeted innovation and

eventually a cultural change that requires

a change of thought patterns and habitual

behaviours.

Social change opens up new opportunities

According to relevant studies, huge efforts

will be made in order to implement sustain-

able standards in the course of the next

decades. Changes implying approaches to

future design and governance forms as well

as sustainable lifestyles can already be seen

today. These are, for example, intensi-

fied environmental standards and related

ratings, efficiency strategies and business

models, new procedures of civic involvement

and forms of applied e-democracy, local

projects that are internationally linked at the

same time, new administrative panels and

design processes. As of recently, modern and

complex transformation strategies as well

as comprising control concepts effective on

several levels are being discussed. •

DUE TO STRONG EFFORTS, SUSTAINABLE STANDARDS WILL HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED ALL OVER THE WORLD BY 2030.

The number of service providers with a sustainability management system is rising.

Organisers prefer service providers with certification.

27,4%

2011

37,7%

2012

39,7%

2013 2030

33,3%

44,1%

SOU

RCE

: MEE

TIN

G A

ND

EV

ENTB

AR

OM

ETER

201

3

40


"UNFCCC understands that a “sustain-

able event is one designed, organ-

ized and implemented in a way that

minimizes potential negative impacts

and leaves a beneficial legacy for the

host community and all involved”. This

definition has been taken from the

UNEP Sustainable Events Guide, which

was developed with contribution by the

UNFCCC secretariat and other sister UN

agencies).

UN Climate Change sessions are among

the largest conferences worldwide, and

the biggest annual events organized in the

UN system. The UNFCCC secretariat has

always strived to minimize the negative

impact (especially on people, communi-

ties and natural resources) of the sessions

it organizes. The scale and ambition of

sustainability actions at UNFCCC confer-

ences crucially depend on the respec-

tive host country’s commitment and

availability of resources as well as the

available infrastructure. The secretariat

actively offers advice and experience

from past conferences and encourages

host countries to consider and address

sustainability aspects when preparing for

the event. Consequently, since 2005 host

governments for UNFCCC sessions have

increasingly taken steps to reduce the

local greenhouse gas emissions resulting

from these events .

In addition to actions carried out by the

host country, the secretariat routinely im-

plements the following measures in order

to reduce the carbon footprint of UNFCCC

conferences:

» Reducing paper usage and wastage,

with detailed reporting of relevant

statistics. For instance, print runs

for official documents are minimized

while the Daily Programme is made

available in electronic form only.

Double-sided printing and print-on-de-

mand of a particular document or part

of it is a service that is systematically

offered to avoid unnecessary printing.

» The distribution of information mate-

rial in hardcopy form is extremely

limited; instead the use of electronic

media, such as USB flash drives and

CD-ROMs, is encouraged, bearing

in mind that most delegates carry

laptops and smart phones. To further

facilitate access, the posting of PDF

documents on the UNFCCC website

and the use of Quick Response codes

are actively promoted.

» Reducing and limiting the size and

weight of shipments for side events,

exhibits as well as for materials for UN

staff servicing the conferences.

» Procuring office supplies locally.

» The UNFCCC secretariat routinely

purchases certified emission reduction

credits and cancels an amount equiva-

lent to its overall carbon footprint,

thereby offsetting its greenhouse gas

emissions including those caused by

travel of staff and funded participants

to UNFCCC conferences.

» Finally, the active communication of

potential benefits of organizing sus-

Sustainable Development: Today sustainability is a

significant concern for the meetings and events industry as

sustainable meetings can register a strong growth within

the market. Which steps do you take to make clear you are

serious about it?Salwa Dallalah, Coordinator Conference Affairs Services, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNFCCC secretariat

Sustainability has now grown to become a principle of planning UNFCCC sessions which greatly helps to minimize potentially negative impacts

41

"The central element in a social contract

on transformation is the constitutive

state with enhanced participation in the

multi-level system of global co-opera-

tion. It communicates two aspects often

conceived in a separate or contrary way:

the strengthening of the state actively

setting and clarifying priorities (for in-

stance with bonus-malus solutions) on

the one hand, and improved voting and

participation opportunities and empow-

erment of citizens (WBGU 2011) on the

other.

The foreseeable social change is under-

pinned by current socio-scientific theo-

ries on society and ideas, above all the

"reflexive modernisation" or the "second

modern age" (Beck/Bonß 2001).

Rationality and progress reach their lim-

its. Leading ideas are being scrutinised

more critically. Here, a high degree of

tolerance will be required in the future in

order to be able to distinguish between

the real sustainable offers and the mere-

ly allegedly sustainable products.

•

•

1) As a good practice, the following reports from COP 15/CMP 5 in Denmark are available online: http://www.e-pages.dk/visitdenmark/469/ (sustainability report) and http://www.e-pages.dk/visitdenmark/472 (carbon footprint report). Other host countries of past UNFCCC conferences have also published information on their sustainability efforts; for instance the Green Event Guideline produced by South Africa, host of COP 17/CMP 7 (see http://www.cop17-cmp7durban.com/downloads/news/Green-Event-Guideline-Summa-ry-2011.pdf). Qatar, the host of the most recent UNFCCC conference, is currently working on a carbon footprint report for COP 18/CMP 8.

tainable events, coupled with the reporting of the results

achieved, is also an integral part of the secretariat’s sus-

tainability strategy and helps to maximize the transpar-

ency of the UNFCCC process.

Sustainability has now grown to become a principle of

planning UNFCCC sessions which greatly helps to minimize

potentially negative impacts but also, given the large number

of stakeholders involved, to concretely influence change by

leaving a positive legacy and inspiring those involved to work

and live more sustainably."


42

Megatrends | Nachhaltige Entwicklung

The three-pillar model of sustainable development

The three pillars of sustainability are described as follows by the study commission of the Deutsche Bundestag “Protection of human beings and environment”:

Ecological sustainability is based mainly on the original thought not to exploit nature ruthlessly. A lifestyle that uses natural living resources only to an extent that can be regenerated again would be ecologically sustainable.

Economical sustainability means that a society should not live beyond its means since this will necessarily result in losses to the generations to come. In general, a way of economic activity will be conside-red sustainable, if it can be carried out on a constant basis.

Social sustainability of a state or society should be organised in a way that the social tensions are kept in reasonable limits and conflicts do not escalate but can be settled in a civil manner.

The three-pillar model of sustainable development

The three pillars of sustainability are described as follows by the study commission of the Deutsche Bundestag “Protection of human beings and environment”:

Ecological sustainability is based mainly on the original thought not to exploit nature ruthlessly. A lifestyle that uses natural living resources only to an extent that can be regenerated again would be ecologically sustainable.

Economical sustainability means that a society should not live beyond its means since this will necessarily result in losses to the generations to come. In general, a way of economic activity will be conside-red sustainable, if it can be carried out on a constant basis.

Social sustainability of a state or society should be organised in a way that the social tensions are kept in reasonable limits and conflicts do not escalate but can be settled in a civil manner.

43

» Challenges » More stringent environmental and social standards

and associated quality criteria, ratings and labels

» Decentralisation of events

» Reduction of green washing by means of transparency

and increased attentiveness

» Persistent positioning of sustainability as a socially

relevant topic in all areas of living

» Measures » Generation of new business models based on sustain-

ability principles within the entire range of services

» Manifestation of internationally accepted quality

criteria for event buildings and event management,

for example, as a guidance when choosing destina-

tions and events

» Stronger regional focus for event locations

» More transparent presentation of sustainable activi-

ties in the area of ecology, economy and social affairs

» Constant further education and training

ConclusionsLike the market share of organic food

and fair trade products has immensely

increased in many societies, "sustainable

meetings" will be a growing market seg-

ment until 2030.

More and more customers expect events

offering an entire range of services in line

with principles of sustainability and pro-

viding or even guaranteeing correspond-

ing quality. As customers consider those

principles important, they are willing to

accept moderately higher prices in return.

Government and politicians as well as

players in the industry themselves sup-

port the matter of sustainability in the

meeting and conventions industry mainly

by setting internationally accepted qual-

ity criteria. These apply to event buildings

(comparable to the current sustain-

ability certificate by the DGNB - German

Sustainable Building Council) and the

event management, for example. Using

such standards and related certificates as

a guidance, customers can better select

destinations and events.

In terms of business economics, invest-

ments in the area of energy efficiency

aiming at the "plus energy building" will

still be relevant in the year 2030. Here,

too, internationally comparative rankings

and ratings of numerous other sustain-

ability parameters are of practical impor-

tance which can easily be adjusted in line

with the customers’ needs by means of

cloud computing. Therefore, participants

can have the energy consumption of

individual components in various build-

ings estimated and choose the events to

participate in based on this information.

In connection with the "sustainability"

scale, locations have become more

regionally based — not least due to

keen economic calculation. To meet the

requirement of international linkage,

technologically supported decentralised

event concepts can simultaneously reach

more participants in various places all

over the world.

As part of sustainable development, effi-

ciency strategies and selective measures

will result in approaches to sustainably

intelligent mobility concepts.


•

44

MEGATREND

Mobility of the future

Megatrends | Mobility

45


A high degree of mobility is a pri-mary feature of a modern society. But the journeys to make and the distances to span — including those to participate in meetings and con-ventions — tend to become longer. Thus the efforts with regard to material and energy are constantly growing. In addition, the expecta-tions towards mobility are in-creasing: flexibility and individual availability are desired.

Mobility requires a lot of energy. In

particular the energy demand of traffic

continues to rise globally. In 1950, the

number of cars and lorries was around

70 million worldwide, by the end of 2012

it was more than one billion. Due to its

high energy density, crude oil is pres-

ently used as an energy source in over

90 percent of all applications. For some

years, the awareness has been growing

that the crude oil reserves are limited.

While they are running short, the world-

wide demand is increasing. Consumers

experience the consequences in the

form of rising energy prices (vzbv 2012).

Motorisation of the world population

and the volume of traffic will continue

to grow until 2030. The central drivers

of this development are the worldwide

population growth and rising incomes

in numerous regions of the world. The

Organization for Economic Co-operation

and Development (OECD) is expecting a

very dynamic development of the num-

ber of cars in China, India, Russia, Brazil,

and Indonesia. For these countries, the

number of cars is predicted to grow by

438 million until 2030. By 2030, the

car density would correspondingly have

multiplied threefold in India, fourfold in

Indonesia and tenfold in China.

Mobility of the future: multimodal, driven by co-operation and efficientMobility in the year 2030 will be multi-

modal, driven by co-operation and

efficient (IFK/AIM 2012). Multimodality

means the changing usage of means of

transportation by a person over a certain

period of time. It should allow users

comfortable, resource-optimised and

environmentally friendly locomotion.

Traffic problems such as traffic bottle-

necks should be minimised, the efficient

utilisation of existing resources and

infrastructure should be in the centre

of interest. A comprehensive platform

should allow coordinated route and tariff

planning, efficient selection of offers as

well as integrated and secure payment

from one source. In this overall system,

services for the mobility of all user

groups are offered. Traditional means of

transportation in motorised private traf-

fic (car, moped, motorbike, for example)

are included just like those of the local

public transport system, railway, aero-

planes, etc. However, innovative (mobil-

ity) services or technologies such as car

sharing, lifts, hired bicycles, segways, or

electric vehicles are also included.

Mobile in a clever way

Another forecast deals with the ration-

alisation of mobility. In the scientists’

opinion, mobility clusters able to offer

services from one source will increas-

ingly develop. Such service providers that

emerged from "mega co-operations"

will be able to provide services that will

involve both the mobility and infrastruc-

ture providers and the public sector. •

There are many ideas for mobility of the future. What are the factors and innovations that will shape the future in your opinion?"Aside from a central location and the

availability of work force, a good connection

and reachability, i.e. the existing mobility

options, are significant factors when choosing

the location of event centres. However, the

availability of fully integrated multimodal travel

chains allowing users ‘seamless’ mobility using

various carriers in a quick and comfortable way

from any place will also be one of the significant

future innovations."

Dr. Stefan Walter, Managing Director, House of Logistics & Mobility (HOLM) GmbH

46


"In the meeting and conventions industry, too, the acceptance of mobility services that do not contribute to the mitigation of the climate change will decrease constantly. However, locomo-tion independent of crude oil that does not produce carbon dioxide is no dream of the future: millions of DB customers including travellers holding event tickets travel in the long-distance trains with 100 per cent green power. Deutsche Bahn will further expand their lead in terms of their sustainable strategy ‘DB 2020’. By 2020, they want to have reduced their specific carbon emissions by 20 per cent compared to the year 2006 — that is for the entire transport system of people and goods on rail, on the road, in the air, and on the water. By 2050, at the latest, the entire rail traffic should be completely free of CO2 emissions.

Moreover, mobility for event participants will become easier due to the increasing use of smartphones and mobile Internet.

Searching and linking means of transportation, book-ing and paying as well as cleverly organising alterna-tive itineraries in real-time is already possible today and should become even easier in the future. The mobility trend of the future clearly points into the direction of networked mobil-ity. Those who want to significantly shape the mobility market of the future have to convince customers by means of cleverly linked mobility services. And here Deutsche Bahn already have a leading edge due to their interconnected services along the entire mobility chain, and they want to further build on this position."

If we want to remain in motion, we need to come up with ideas. Find fuel alternatives to the absolutely dominant "crude oil". Develop concepts as to how resources and infrastructure can be used as efficiently as possible. What ideas and concrete proposals can we expect from you?Ulrich Homburg, Member of the Management Board of DB Mobility Logistics AG responsible for Passenger Transport

Multimodality. The ideal means of transportation is available anytime, anywhere.Individual, e�cient, flexible.

Constantly updated travel data and automatic adjustment in case of obstructions and plan variances

Ideal itinerary at query time All travel options

47


• ConclusionsMobility costs for the journey to and

from the event location are a particularly

relevant factor for all participants of

meetings and conventions. This becomes

particularly obvious when costs are rising.

However, duration and comfort of the

journey to the venues also count among

the decisive selection criteria for meet-

ings and conventions. Here, user-friendly

options for switching between the vari-

ous means of mobility become particu-

larly important and crucial.

Independent orientation during the

journey as well as "navigation" at the

event location is strongly supported by

technological means, mobile devices and

user-friendly applications. This makes

quick and short-term selection from

various mobility options easier, and

adaption to the individually suitable and

preferred combinations is possible. Since

still higher customer expectations with

regard to comfort and service should be

anticipated, differentiated service offers

need to be created here, too, that will

be appropriate for the various target

groups and their economic possibilities.

The development of such multimodal

and forward-looking mobility systems

also requires considerable efforts of co-

operation between different players with

diverging interests in addition to financial

and time resources.

It will be important to providers and

event planners to actively deal with

the topic of mobility and to define its

position within the multimodal mobility

chain.

» Challenges » Rising expectations towards mobile services with

regard to flexibility, individuality and permanent avail-

ability

» Increasing mobility and travel expenses due to the

discrepancy between supply and demand in energy

consumption

» Reduction of the consumption of material and energy

of future mobility services

» Consideration of health- and age-related restrictions as

older people can participate longer in mobile life

» Measures » Facilitation of the journey to and from event locations

using technological means and mobile devices as well

as multimodal concepts

» Positioning of event providers and planners as well

as other service providers as active players within the

multimodal mobility chain and development of suit-

able strategies

» Creation of a balance between global requirements

and individual mobility needs meeting the criteria of

sustainability

» Offering tools for optimal planning and configuration

of the journey to and from the event location and

integration of services of mobility service partners

» Strengthening of quality standards for mobility prod-

ucts and services in Europe and internationally

DURATION AND COMFORT OF THE JOURNEY TO EVENT LOCA-TIONS COUNT AMONG THE CRUCIAL SELECTION CRITERIA FOR MEETINGS AND CONVENTIONS.

48

MEGATREND

Safety

Megatrends | Safety

49

Megatrends | Safety

In modern societies, new forms of prevention and protection will have developed by 2030. Safety in a broad sense (both in the sense of "safety" and of "security") has several dimen-sions. This section shall emphasise that complex and highly technologi-cal societies react in a particularly sensitive way to disturbances, such as power outages or impairment of other supply systems and infrastruc-tures.

This sensitivity results from the enor-

mous complexity of highly developed

systems depending on the precise func-

tioning of countless interacting factors.

Electrically operated devices have almost

completely penetrated the production

areas as well as life and work environ-

ments of modern societies with high

technological standards.

Impact of climate change on safety

If climate change progresses to the same

extent as before — as predicted by the

IPCC — and extreme weather events occur

more often and intensify, this will have an

impact on infrastructures and the normal

flow of many processes in daily life and

the economy.

The challenge of data security

A significant aspect here will be data se-

curity when cloud computing and the In-

ternet of Things further extend. Sporadic

or constant hacking or even low-intensity

cyberwars as well as spy activities by

various players may lead to significant

impairment in the areas of communica-

tion, payment and mobility especially for

the meeting and conventions industry.

Aside from direct effects such as targeted

disruption of specific events, aspects of

safety may influence the willingness to

organise and participate in events. •

c12,5%by 2019

33,3%by 2024

When?

12%

high

25%

medium

25%

low

38%

don’t know / n.s.

12,5%by 2030

4,2%after 2030

In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:“In event organisation, multi-biometric systems are used, combining various biometric methods.”

50

Megatrends | Safety

Event 2.0 – About the inconveniences of data processing

"Today, many attendees to events expect

an IT offer allowing at least low-barrier

internet access, and the choice among

several connection options via wired

(fast!) or wireless devices (convenient!).

Freely available USB sticks or possibilities

to print information are also appreciated.

If personalised information such as the

choice for lunch, the feedback sheets

with prize draw, or the convenient order-

ing option of materials via a conference

intranet are also available, the partici-

pants truly feel at home in the 21st cen-

tury — including the analysis regarding

"Who with whom" on the Facebook page

the next morning.

But all that has also its drawbacks: a

long track of personal data which is not

restricted to individual visitors but also

includes any kind of relationships with

other people before, during and after the

event; from customers and suppliers,

partners and up to friends. Companies

worrying about industrial espionage

or facilities processing patient data,

which need to be especially protected, or

emphasising the aspect of "trust" in their

business should be equally concerned

about protection of the virtual person

represented by their data as about

physical protection in large gatherings of

people.

In this context, a lot of provisions have

to be complied with, the consequences

of which sensibly depend on the setup

of the IT environment chosen by the or-

ganiser beforehand: is the WLAN open or

closed, do persons have to register, or are

login data the same for all users? Were

USB sticks loaded with data and checked

for viruses prior to the event? Will the

disk storage of the modern printers be

securely deleted at the end of the day,

or is it possible to repeat all printouts

and use them without the corresponding

authorisation? Will the data from the

conference intranet be processed accord-

ing to the provisions of the (German)

data protection law? Did all participants

receive information on the use of their

personal data? Where will the potentially

embarrassing photos from the confer-

ence party show up: in Facebook? In the

organiser’s area of responsibility?

The list of questions in the run-up to a

modern IT-aided event is long. The con-

sequences are many. The meeting of all

requirements is called "compliance". The

concrete measures for implementation

are summarised as "governance". Those

two buzzwords have long been hard real-

ity in Germany, as insurers and financing

institutions have silently built a second

line of defence when it is about having

to settle or finance damages in this area

where claims are still rarely asserted.

The liability trap for organisers now also

snaps shut in the area of IT, while they

already feel sufficiently stressed by the

topics of physical fire protection and

escape paths.

How should the matter be handled?

The most important term is "state of

the art". That state of the art has to be

observed and can be insured. That is:

establish an encoded WLAN, have a data

protection officer review the contracts

and agreements and make spot checks

every half year. Buy printers without a

hard disk. Have USB sticks checked for

viruses and obtain permission for storing

personal data already during the regis-

tration process of participants.

What goes beyond is the current "state

of research": novel viruses still unknown,

software planted by malicious IT produc-

ers, or simply force majeure may be

accepted, if the limits are known, and

waited out without jeopardising the

existence of event organisers — how

severe and painful the consequences

might ever be.

People need social contact, and in the

year 2030 they will meet in person — but

that will be events integrated in the

constant virtual communication. That is

certain!"

Which risks will grow in the future due to the increasing technology level of events in respect of the trend to make available personal data, communication and interaction data to the attendees through web-based applications or wireless networks, and what can organisers and convention centres do to guarantee safety and security?

Dr. Johannes Loxen, CEO SerNet GmbH, Head of Steering Committee Software at the Federal Association for Information Technology, Telecommunication and New Media (BITKOM e. V.) and Member of Supervisory Board at DENIC

51

Megatrends | Sicherheit und Bedrohungen

b

52

"As the organiser of our own events

and participant in external events, the

topic of security is close to our heart.

This is primarily the personal, physical

safety of all our customers, partners,

employees and suppliers for an event,

but it also includes data security,

technical safety, financial safety, and

not least the perceived safety during

and after an event. And to answer part

of the question: unfortunately, there is

no guarantee.

Our security concept begins already

when selecting the destination.

Risk analysis: which potential dangers

are held by the region / city / venue

with regard to the political situa-

tion, physical safety (e.g. terrorism),

data protection (can we integrate the

network or operate it together with

a partner?), infrastructure (how safe

are airports, regional public transport,

roads, power supply?), and all event

locations: fair grounds, concert venue,

hotels, etc.)?

Several months prior to an event, a

team is constituted which is regularly

kept up to date and can react if re-

quired. This team covers the aspects of

Mobility (transportation and accommo-

dation), Communications (regular and

crisis communication), Legal and HR as

well as Risk & Compliance. Moreover

a crisis management group is estab-

lished which is prepared and briefed

for crisis, handling crisis management

together with the relevant representa-

tives from the venue, police and fire

brigade. The detailed security concept

is based on risk analysis and takes

operative measures: selection of local

service providers, entry and access con-

trols, security sweeps, briefings for the

staff, security hotline, registering of

material and inventory, medical staff,

contact to local authorities, etc.

As those measures are planned and

implemented according to a predefined

standard. But especially important to

us is: to make security palpable for the

participants so that they actually feel

safe. Before, during and after an event.

Many teams are working together to

this end.

Example Strike:

» Announcement and constant sta-

tus updates to the participants via

website, e-mail, and social media

using independent sources

» Planning several scenarios: how

can we bring participants to their

hotels, when taxis are on strike and

the main roads are blocked? Those

measures will then be communi-

cated as well

» Hotels: active addressing of partici-

pants with accommodation in ar-

eas on strike, offering them to help

with alternative accommodation

» F&B: keeping quantities of food

and beverages in stock, in case that

guests cannot leave the location

» Travel: support with flight booking

and booking changes, and contact-

ing airlines via the website and on

site

Here, the opportunity arises to guar-

antee the participants an acceptable

event experience during difficult

situations. With good information

management, the participants become

sensitised and will accept small incon-

veniences. By way of this approach, an

actual disadvantage is turned into an

advantage: with large events, we have

received a lot of positive feedback for

our information politics and measures

taken. We have reached our goal: satis-

fied and safe customers.

In the future, the importance of social

media for security will certainly in-

crease further. Presently, social media

already represent an important factor

— for both sides: critical situations or

places can be identified faster thanks

to monitoring via social media. Which

roads are affected by strike; is it safe

to have participants take a certain

route? On the other hand, they are

important for giving information to the

participants: please take care, check

your flight connections for cancella-

tions, etc."

Our industry already faces many risks, and they will get worse. How do you intend to win the participants' trust taking into account the rising need for security, and how will you guarantee that your guests feel safe?

Mathias Sondermann, Director Global Events, Programs, SAP AG

Megatrends | Safety

53

» Challenges » High sensitivity of complex systems in case of natural

disasters or extreme weather events which may lead to

power outages or impairment to other supply systems

and infrastructures with local negative impact

» Unauthorised access to data, development of

protective measures

» Measures » Enhancement of resilience by means of data protec-

tion measures, for example

» Adaptation and update of contingency plans

• ConclusionsIn the course of the next two decades,

Germany will face additional challenges.

This will lead to the development of

new forms of prevention and protection.

With the increasing reliance on technol-

ogy and global linkage, supply systems

and infrastructures become more prone

to interferences, while society becomes

more dependent on their smooth

functioning at the same time — climate

change with extreme weather events

occurring more frequently can cause

problems here.

A new dimension is created due to ac-

celerated digitalisation: the challenges

of data security rise in importance, since

sporadic or constant hacking or even

low-intensity cyberwars may cause

significant impairment especially to the

meeting and conventions industry.

The megatrend of "safety" represents

a particular challenge to the meeting

and conventions industry as the image

of a country or region is very important

to the industry. Whether fears arise will

depend on the perception and affected-

ness of the participants. And on the fact

whether more or less correct judge-

ment, followed by relevant prevention

and corrective measures occurred — and

whether the arising costs can be born.

For the industry, it is relevant that the

potential guests and participants get a

feeling of low risk, guaranteed safety

and high standards. Nevertheless — or

for this reason — the safety precautions

in the course of the event should not be

disruptive.

Although numerous safety issues affect

entire societies and need to be solved by

the competent institutions (in particular

with regard to travelling), the industry

can act in some concrete and immedi-

ately safety-relevant areas. These are the

areas of organisation and infrastructure,

building and logistics, communication

security, local environment, but also

preventive measures taken by event

organisers.

OUR COMPLEX, HIGHLY TECHNOLOGICAL AND NETWORKED SOCIETY REACTS IN A PARTICULARLY SENSITIVE WAY TO DISTURBANCES.

Megatrends | Safety

54

Scenarios

"WE NEED MODELS FOR THE FUTURE WHICH DO NOT PAINT GREY AND BLACK BUT FORMULATE REWARDING GOALS. I WOULD LIKE HUMAN SOCIETY TO TAKE A MORE OPTIMISTIC APPROACH TO THEIR PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE. INDIVIDUALS SHALL BE ENCOURAGED IN THEIR IMAGINATION TO MAKE EVEN SMALL CHANGES. THIS SHOULD ACTUALLY BE THE CONCEPT FOR THE FUTURE."

HANS-PETER DUERR, HEAD OF THE MAX PLANCK INSTITUTE FOR PHYSICS UNTIL 1997

55

ScenariosScenarios illustrate possible future situations, painting more or less detailed and descriptive pictures of the

future. Scenarios are hypothetical sequences of events created to draw attention to certain contexts and

necessary decisions. They are frequently used in various forms and in different areas and situations.

Scenarios

56

SCENARIO

ArchitectureWhile the benefits of the Internet have made communication and access to know-how independent of individual locations, meetings and conventions still have to rely on central, favourably located destinations — or on buildings with unique features.

Szenarien

57

Scenarios

First meeting and convention centres with a net zero-energy standard

By the year 2030, the rising cost of the fossil

fuels oil and gas has increased the pressure

to operate event centres with low energy

consumption or rely on renewable energy

sources exclusively. Ecologically oriented

engineers and architects have achieved tech-

nological progress even for such energetically

complex buildings like event centres. The

first meeting and convention centre newly

constructed in 2017 will be able to meet its

power, heating and air conditioning require-

ments using solely regenerative energies

(net zero-energy standard): It purchases

eco-power and biogas generated from waste

from a natural power dealer, and adds a so-

phisticated mix of decentrally self-generated

geothermal and photovoltaic energy and

an insulation based on cybernetic principles

where the exit of warmth is regulated at a

few "strategic" points of a building only. For

modernisations of existing buildings, this

net zero-energy standard has been reached

in the period from 2020 to 2024 for the first

time.

Event organisers demand sus-tainably built / modernised locations

Event organisers such as large corporations

listed on the stock exchange are looking

for event centres making efficient use of

renewable energies not only for aspects

of costs but they are also subject to the

pressure of institutional investors that

preferably consider sustainable enterprise

strategies as future-proof, low-risk and

profitable in the long term. The pressure

from various sectors of the money mar-

ket on large companies ensures that they

conduct their events mainly at sustainable

locations. Moreover, the megatrend of

SOCIAL TRENDS ENSURE THAT LARGE COMPANIES PREFER-ABLY CHOOSE SUS-TAINABLE LOCATIONS FOR THEIR EVENTS.

•

In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:“Existing meeting and convention centres are brought to a net zero-energy standard during their energetic modernisation.”

33%

high

17%

medium

21%

low

29%

don’t know / n.s.

4,2%by 20144,2%

by 2030

16,7%by 2019

33,3%by 2024

4,2%

,7%2019

33 3%

When?

8,3%after 2030

58

FICTION

New orientation of meetings and conventions through special locations and wor-king styles in view of an increasing merge of private and professional life

2030 – Western renaissance: the second life of "MS Fortuna"

Professor Dr. Zhao Zhang, nano-

technology expert at the University

of Beijing, travelled to a symposium

in the Rhein-Ruhr region following an

invitation by organiser Armin Mueller.

Since the per-capita consumption of

fossil fuels has been strictly limited

in China as well, the professor has

decided to travel with Lufthansa which

is well-known for its modern and par-

ticularly energy-efficient fleet. In addi-

tion to his assistants, Zhang has taken

his family with him to make a private

journey through Germany directly after

the symposium.

At first, Professor Zhang fears that the

translation programme of his Data-

Watch had failed since the e-shuttle

driver takes the delegation to a plain

harbour . There is no congress centre

in sight, just a ship of older vintage

named "MS Fortuna" idling in the water .

But shortly afterwards, Armin Mueller

welcomes his guests and asks them

to come aboard . Zhang’s assistants

are excited about the original location

and admire the simple and functional

furnishings as well as the state-of-the-

art presentation technology: "plug in

and ready to work!"Even before the ship

leaves the harbour, the first multina-

tional working group begins working .

The two junior scientists appreciate the

interdisciplinary style and readiness to

debate of the other participants, and

quickly find their top form .

Since Honk, the professor’s wife, is

responsible for social matters in the

province government, the organiser

arranged an additional programme for

which her employer was immediately

willing to grant her a few days of educa-

tional leave . While her son and daughter

are ideally looked after, she visits a

multi-generation project at a former

mining town and an industrial facility

later turned into a cultural centre . Given

the virtuously realised concepts for

second usage of buildings, Ms . Zhang

is not surprised that her husband holds

scientific lectures on a former excursion

boat .

The "MS Fortuna" docks several times

to take guests aboard: EU scientists

seize the opportunity to have a personal

talk with Professor Zhang, arriving

via train in an energy-efficient way .

Moreover the professor conducts nego-

tiations with representatives of large

biotechnology companies interested in

his research project: a multi-permeable

membrane which is able to collect even

minimal quantities of energy from the

environment, store and convert them .

Professor Zhang also complied with

the organiser’s request to have one of

his assistants hold a guest lecture and

a one-day workshop at the Rhenanian

Friedrich Wilhelms University Bonn . He

will present new methods for the com-

munication of knowledge, and Professor

Zhang’s team is eager to know how the

European students will perform during

brainstorming in connection with blitz

chess and badminton . The organiser

can also build a good reputation with

this high-quality science camp among

the meeting participants of the next

generation . And not least, it still applies

even in 2030 that scientific careers are

driven by international lectures, suf-

ficient teaching experience and personal

contacts .

The Tai-Chi exercise carried out by visi-

tors in the Rheinaue park in the early

evening triggers amused giggles in

Professor Zhang and his postgraduates .

The hobby kickers or barbecue chefs,

however, are fascinating . Since Armin

Mueller knows the foibles of his Asian

guests for authentic "natives", he has

planned for a local highlight of the final

event beforehand: Football at Schalke

stadium and chips with ketchup and

mayonnaise .

Scenarios

59

sustainability manifests itself in changed re-

quirements claimed by many smaller event

organisers directly looking for sustainably

constructed or modernised venues for their

meetings.

"Industrial society needs to radically

change its way of thinking, directed away

from the mere consumption of available

resources and towards their sustainable

use. For architecture, this means: to design

buildings in a way that they have a maxim-

ised useful life."

Christian Helfrich, Architect at David

Chipperfield Architects

Good, timeless buildings at low costs

By 2030, more and more builders and opera-

tors, project controllers and architects will

have turned to new ways of sparing usage

of resources and deceleration, planning for

a long-term use of meeting and convention

centres from the beginning. They prefer-

ably employ sustainable, efficiently used,

locally provided materials, natural stones

and home-grown wood. Buildings are rarely

geared towards complying with the current

taste. As the sustainability motto of far-

sighted builders is: "to build a good, timeless

building at low costs".

Deconstruction and recycling of a building are

integrated in construction planning. Materi-

als such as concrete or steel are mainly used

without mixing materials so that deconstruc-

tion can be performed without any problems

later. The space concept is cooperative and

no longer hierarchic, meeting the users’ vari-

ous needs and desires. It usually consists of

several small, medium-sized and large rooms

which can be flexibly used and combined, if

required. Fixtures depending on maintenance

are deliberately avoided.

Certification systems become more important

All those innovations in the area of sustain-

able building are rewarded with higher ratings

by the German Sustainable Building Council

(DGNB) and thus supported. Since the DGNB

began its work in 2009, around 600 buildings

had been certified by the end of 2012. The

DGNB carefully selects and defines specific

certification criteria for individual building

types.

Auditor Christian Luft: "The DGNB aims to

get the most in sustainability from every type

of building. It takes about one year to develop

a new usage profile since all members of the

new-user body work in an honorary capacity.

This is the reason why convention centres,

for example, have to wait a year for a new

DGNB certificate. Until that time one can

rely on already existing usage profiles. They

may, however, not be optimally suited for the

object to be certified."

It is interesting that the DGNB standard not

only covers ecological criteria but also takes

into account the economic sustainability

and sociocultural qualities of a building.

Such kind of certification certainly gives the

builder a competitive edge. Already for a

long time, solvent purchasers have bought

office buildings at attractive city locations

with certification only. If hotels, event and

congress buildings desire to be booked by

corporations listed on the stock exchange,

certification is a must. For industrial event

organisers, it is particularly important to

communicate the company image with

regard to quality, sustainability and individu-

ality, for example, through the choice of

•

•

Scenarios

How does a change of societal values manifest in the architecture of congress centres?

"High-quality and extraordinary

architecture has always been impor-

tant for the marketing of congress

centres. The precursor type of town

halls also had the obligation to

represent duty, wealth, education and

pride of the urban bourgeoisie in an

architectural way. But the perception

of extraordinariness has changed.

While the mere size of a building or

its rich furnishing formerly was often

sufficient to make an impression on

its visitors, the public’s awareness

of values like sustainability, careful

consideration of the landscape and

regional culture, and inventive archi-

tectural solutions regarding the usage

of space has been growing lately."

Olaf Pfeifer, Architect and Architecture Scientist

60

Scenarios

the event location — which should prefer-

ably be correspondingly certified.

Daylight, natural air conditioning and ventilation as wellness factors

The requirements of the participants with

regard to comfort and a sense of wellbe-

ing within a building will be extremely

high in 2030. Since 2020, the majority

of guests expect that not only the entry

foyers but also large meeting rooms be

flooded with daylight. The megatrend

of health and the process of refinement

have led to a development away from

large, artificially lighted halls and towards

flexibly usable rooms with natural day-

light.

In 2030, it has been state of the art for

some time to carry out a thermo-dyna-

mic simulation and daylight simulation

already at an early planning stage. This

way, planning can take into account early

where sunlight can be used as heating

source, where a lot of heat is created by

visitors, etc. The simulated entry of day-

light is also used for optimal assignment

of rooms and for facade design so that

the consumption of electrical energy for

lighting can be reduced. This has an im-

pact on the visitors’ wellbeing who often

judge the quality and also the functional-

ity of architecture by the high volume of

daylight allowed to enter the building.

•

In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theories with regard to probability and time:

“Project development with thermodynamical simulation (heating by means of sunlight radiation, waste heat, etc.) is state of the art.”

42%

high

17% 12%

low

29%

don’t know /

n.s.

don’t know /

n.s.

c20,8%by 2019

29,2%by 2024

8,3%by 2014

8,3%by 2030

When?

c25%by 2019

20,8%by 2024

12,5%by 2014

8,3%by 2030

When?

“Meeting and convention centres meet their power, heating and air conditioning requirements by means of regenerative energies exclusively.”

42%

high

25% 8%

low

medium

medium

25%

61

Scenarios

Aside from daylight and view, the quality of

the air in the rooms is an important wellness

factor. Natural air conditioning ("controlled

air supply") has been a long introduced

standard in 2030. Visitors not only have

a sensible perception of natural light and

natural air conditioning but also a refined

awareness of sustainable architecture,

careful consideration of the landscape and

regional culture, and a preference for inven-

tive architectural solutions regarding the us-

age of space. Additional financial investment

by the builders in high-quality architects’

competition and a certification process ac-

companying the construction can amortise

just by the fact that the completed, aestheti-

cally attractive and functional building will

be especially appreciated by participants and

event organisers alike.

Formerly used building materials the com-

ponents of which have proved hazardous to

health still emerge time and again in 2030.

Centres certified according to the DGNB

standard have a competitive edge in that

situation; they are even able to attract more

health-conscious guests and event organis-

ers by referring to the low-pollutant air in the

centre.

Buildings with alternative uses as popular exotics

Other event organisers and participants are

searching for diversion, convention locations

characterised by individuality, emotional-

ity and authenticity. Here, it seems logical

to open up buildings from earlier times for

the meeting and conventions industry at

least temporarily. In addition to the deliber-

ately unspecific modern congress centres,

such unusual locations possessing a patina

and their own history extend the range of

meeting options. At the same time, such

buildings contribute to a regional profile and

a particular image.

Temporary, recyclable congress buildings to meet new requirements

In the age of advanced internet, pictures

reduced to logos have gained a lot in im-

portance in the building industry as well.

"In particular young architects often tend

to develop a new building not for its future

function but with an image identity in

mind."Their buildings may really be spectacu-

lar from the outside, attracting visitors, but

are they really suitable for holding repeated

meetings and conventions? Since the re-

quirements of the constantly developing

science society regarding congress buildings

are subject to ever more rapid change, con-

gress buildings are deliberately designed for

a reduced useful life of 10 to 15 years also in

2030. The ecologically oriented architecture

professor Guenter Pfeifer appreciated that

development already in 2013: "If a building

can be simply deconstructed and recycled

after 15 years, this can also be regarded as

sustainable building."

German society is, in particular, characterised by demographic change in the developed countries From 2020 German meeting and conven-

tion centres have embraced this situation an

opportunity, and since then have been seen

the world over as industry pioneers regarding

barrier-free accessibility. Clarity, transparency

and reliability for older and also handicapped

guests at their arrival and when attending

meetings and conventions are of special

relevance to the organisers.

ACCESSIBILITY WILL GAIN IN IMPORTANCE IN THE FUTURE.

62

Scenarios

SCENARIO

Transfer of knowledgeAgainst the background of increasing complexity of the living and working envi-ronments and the social circumstances, the acceleration of numerous development processes and the world-wide growing volume of knowledge, the need for adequate conducive spaces for the transfer of knowledge is increasing. Given the trends of individualisation, globalisation, demographic change and a knowledge society, this need should have reached another peak by 2030.

63

Rising pressure to performTo an even higher degree than anticipated

today, the pressure to perform will prob-

ably rise, blurring the boundaries between

professional and private life. Lifelong

learning, gaining intercultural knowledge,

and constant availability are requirements

taking many people to their limits and

even beyond. Various forms of working

time reductions and flexible job models

(including sabbaticals) may provide relief

here.

New forms and possibilities to acquire knowledgeDiverse methods for acquiring knowledge

will complement the traditional forms.

This includes the employment of most

different technologies and tools, mainly

new developments during virtual confer-

ences, but also countless individual forms

of gaining knowledge: almost all universi-

ties offer Massive Open Online Courses

(MOOC), for example. This special kind of

online courses for a great number of par-

ticipants has been able to take hold within

only a few years. In times of business

economic pressures and calculations, this

digitalisation of teaching is an important

and innovative method for the transfer of

knowledge for many universities.

Aside from English as the internationally

dominant conference language, there

are second languages such as Chinese,

Hindi and Spanish which are spoken in

large regions. Due to the largely advanced

translation technology, application is pos-

sible without any problems.

The older generation is increasingly taken

into account and can influence the top-

ics and the layout of event formats to a

higher degree, since it represents the ma-

jority of the population. The emergence

of various quality seals and certifications,

and the setting of standards for various

aspects, will be an important trend in this

context.

Scenarios

BY THE YEAR 2030, MOBILE APPLICATIONS WILL HAVE CERTAINLY ALSO PENETRATED THE LIVING ENVIRONMENT OF OLDER PEOPLE TO A HIGHER DEGREE THAN IT IS THE CASE TODAY.

•

Scenario: Enhanced IndividualsAn extreme example applying to a minority only but getting more and

more popular in certain social environments are implants. They are

supposed to enhance the cognitive skills and perception of people. The

carriers of such implants are called "Enhanced Individuals" which some

people object to. For various reasons, they do not want to disclose their

artificially acquired skills. With some job descriptions, however, disclo-

sure is expected, which leads to enormous legal and insurance-related

issues.

Hybrid events and measured employment of technologyApart from this dichotomy of "High Tech"

(handling of technology) and "High Touch"

(dealing with people), the topic of the next

two decades for the majority of events

will be how to adequately employ technol-

ogy. Depending on the format, function

and audience of an event, the increasingly

convergent segments of stage technology,

lighting, acoustics, presentation and trans-

lation technology as well as interactive and

feedback options (voting and gaming, for

example) need to be applied and utilised in

a well-measured manner. For this purpose,

the desires of customers and participants

need to be anticipated as exactly as pos-

sible in order to be able to address the

individual technical, service-related and

dramaturgical requirements and to make

corresponding proposals. A good techno-

logical infrastructure needs to be estab-

lished allowing the use of various media

and event technologies without causing

much friction or problems to the users.

By the year 2030, mobile applications will

have certainly also penetrated the living

environment of older people to a higher

degree than it is the case today. Thus, a

certain familiarity with the handling of

64

technology may be assumed. Predominantly

user-friendly mobile and context-adaptable

user interfaces for man-machine systems

will be widely used. Nevertheless, the ap-

plication of new technologies will probably

require higher educational efforts to allow

the participants to handle new tools in an

efficient and responsible way.

The typical time-related distribution pattern

of innovations should still be applicable

which states that certain technical applica-

tions become widely used only after several

years. Event organisers tend to rely on al-

ready proven solutions and not so much on

state-of-the-art technologies which might

cause irritation with the participants.

Face-to-face: flexible formats and current references

Meetings mainly serve to get acquainted,

exchange information and experiences,

establish contact and links with people in

various functions and with various potential.

This can be intensified or technologically

Scenarios

•

•

Which types and structures of events will we see in the future instead of traditional conferences and conventions? What must the meeting and convention industry do to be prepared for these changes?

Adrian Segar designs and facilitates participant-driven and participation-rich events. He is the author of the book "Conferences That Work: Creating Events That People Love", published at Conferences That Work, Marlboro, Vermont• www.conferencesthatwork.com

In the future we’ll see events that concentrate more on sup-

porting meaningful connections between attendees and less

on broadcast content. As useful content becomes increasingly

available online, meetings need to concentrate on what they

do best: allowing people to meet, connect, and engage.

We’ll also see participant-driven event formats like "Open

Space" and "Conferences That Work" replacing traditional

event formats. Today people learn most of what they need to

do to do their job from their peers, not in the classroom. Our

events need to mirror this new reality. In addition, conference

sessions will include much more attendee participation and

less lecturing. Session designs will incorporate what we’ve

known for a long time: people learn better when they partici-

pate in their learning rather than passively listen.

An increasing number of meetings will be hybrid events. The

advantages of including those who cannot physically attend

are many, and the relevant technology is becoming easier to

apply and manage.

The meeting industry must prepare for these changes. Venues

will be asked to provide different kinds of spaces from the

past. Compared with traditional events of the same size, par-

ticipatory conferences require more large rooms and a greater

number of nearby small rooms for intimate breakout sessions.

Venues will also need to handle the demand for new room

sets. No more new auditoriums or classrooms with fixed seat-

ing! New conference formats require moveable lightweight

flexible seating, preferably with casters so that participants

can move between large group and small group activities.

Tables will be used less as they get in the way of interactions

between attendees.

Reliable internet access, with appropriate bandwidth avail-

able for attendee needs, will become as important as food and

drink. Build the cost into your budget!

Finally, be prepared for a switch in event staffing. The demand

for skillful meeting session facilitators will grow, replacing

some speakers and emcees.

65

Scenarios

FICTION

Enhancing the attractiveness of meetings and conventions by means of sustainability, reduction and inclusion

Sustainable locations for sustainable transfer of knowledge: less is more

"Why do I have to attend a congress

in the sticks?", grumbles Jane Fast,

reporter of a renowned science

magazine for history and art. "Clay

Town 3000, consequently barrier-free

ecological construction, post-urban

locations and renunciation of the

digital overkill...", she contemptu-

ously quotes the description from the

congress materials. "This just means:

old people, itchy bedding, no mobile

network connection, purely Stone

Age, and carrots to eat."But both the

topic of "Limits of cryptology" and

the list of international speakers

promise a very interesting pro-

gramme. Thus, Jane packs a vintage

note pad and pen, and takes off.

From the small provincial railway sta-

tion, the organiser — in cooperation

with the local railway network opera-

tor — offers a handcar shuttle to the

meeting location . Together with other

participants, Jane pedals forcefully . To

the amused pleasure of all passengers,

a wheelchair user loudly encourages his

personal assistant . In a casual atmos-

phere, first contacts are made, and Jane

even forgets to make a last phone call .

At first, she finds the guest houses

arranged in a star-layout around the

round congress hall and connected by

small roofed runways very Spartan, but

then has to admit that the modular

concept of simple buildings intended

for temporary use has been very suc-

cessfully implemented . And within the

buildings, every square centimetre has

been optimally utilised .

Jane is clearly excited about the round

congress building constructed with

wood and glass . Daylight is allowed to

enter through large windows, and due

to the natural building materials, the

indoor climate is comfortable . Slightly

inclined ramps connect the individual

levels, which not only benefits older

and handicapped participants but also

furthers communication: the wide

hallway inevitably leads to encounters

and joint walks . The participants get to

talking, wide steps serve as seating .

In lounge-like niches, workshops are

held, and selected lecturers like the

Swiss Wyss, emeritus professor for

ancient languages, invite for face-to-

face discussions . Jane even takes part

in a gaming . Teamed up with a Swedish

journalist and a young Arab, a secret

message needs to be deciphered . After

correct decryption, the code gives

directions to the abundant, season-

ally and regionally oriented buffet . As

she learns, the organiser uses local

suppliers for the catering exclusively,

so that top quality throughout the year

and planning reliability for farmers and

processing companies is guaranteed .

Thanks to its cone shape, the lecture

hall offers excellent acoustics and an

optimal sight of the speaker even from

the rows in the back . For a good reason:

not only the participants are offline,

but also the lecturers speak without

the usual technical means . A challenge

that is mastered by many of them with

humour and spirit . Instead of uninspir-

ing lectures read by the script, they are

really performing . Interposed questions

are explicitly asked for, the audience

is getting involved through stand-up

role plays, and small experiments

complement the package of a versatile

transfer of knowledge .

66

Scenarios

Which forms and structures will replace the classic meetings and conventions in the future, and which prerequisites need to be created by service providers in the meeting and conventions industry?

"The digital age is characterised by an extremely easy acces-

sibility of knowledge and information through the Internet

as well as networking via social media. For this reason,

conferences and similar events are facing entirely new

challenges: going beyond the exchange of information or

the transfer of knowledge, events need to offer options for

community building and true collaboration. Modern partici-

pants are very well informed and cannot be convinced by

means of classroom lectures or product pitches any more.

They rather expect answers to their individual questions and

want to discuss with other participants as well as with the

speakers about experiences and approaches in order to be

able to benefit mutually. For this purpose, formats with an

open structure have to be created, allowing interaction and

participation.

To sustainably create communities for certain topics in the

course of an event, the corresponding digital rooms need to

be provided in addition to innovative formats. This requires

digital tools and platforms to allow the participants to net-

work already prior to the event and collaboratively use knowl-

edge and contacts afterwards as well. The enhancement of

the physical event room by a digital one can occur not only

before and after an event, however, but also in parallel, in

order to involve interested persons who cannot be present

physically. Given such possibilities, event managers increas-

ingly become community managers. They get the chance to

sustainably built a community — not only through a specific

topic but also by their specific approach and the experience

they shape — and at the same time develop a corresponding

business model."

Claudia Brückner, Event Concepter, www.claudiabrueckner.de

supported using initial phases with

speed dating or special introductory rounds,

for example. This serves for breaking the

ice and establishing a positive construc-

tive and open atmosphere (willingness to

absorb information and give information).

On the other hand the following becomes

clear: Who do I have to deal with? Are there

especially interesting persons among the

participants?…

Contrary to the usual methods used during

conferences, situation- and attendee-spe-

cific formats could be applied and then —

taking into account current developments

in connection with the subject of the event.

Event organisers are mainly responsible to

arrange the framework of the event and —

among other things, by employing suitable

hosts — to make sure that the participants

fit into this framework. Open-space confer-

ences or BarCamps offer their services

mainly in the area of self-organised trans-

fer of information and knowledge.

The availability of flexible infrastructures

for space and technology is an inevitable

prerequisite for events of this kind. Given

the accelerated course of everyday work

which can be mastered only barely, many

meetings and conventions also serve for

exchanging information in an unhurried

way and conducting more serious and sys-

tematic discussions. This is almost impos-

sible under everyday working conditions.

Some formats combine scientific and

political events with sessions focussed on

psychosocial regeneration. The goal is to

address, strengthen and vitalise all senses.

DURING BREAKS, THE PARTICIPANTS GET ANIMATED TO

PERFORM COMMON PLAYFUL AND

VITALISING RITUALS OFFERING FUN AND

REFRESHING MIND AND BODY ALIKE.

•

67

Scenarios

THE GOAL IS TO ADDRESS, STRENGTHEN AND VITALISE ALL SENSES. THIS HAS A POSITIVE IMPACT ON CONCENTRATION, CREATIVITY AND PRODUCTIVITY OF THE MEETING AND CONVENTION ATTENDEES.

Experience has shown that this has a posi-

tive impact on concentration, creativity and

productivity of the meeting and conven-

tion attendees. The following trend which

initially was observed during meetings for

younger people will probably have taken

hold widely by 2030: during breaks, the

participants get animated to perform com-

mon playful and vitalising rituals offering

fun and refreshing mind and body alike. As

a matter of course, such rituals are adapted

to the participants' age and physical fit-

ness.

Personal meetings with lecturers and selected personalities

To increase the "added value" of personal

participation in an event, there will be the

option of applying for a personal meet-

ing or consultation with selected speak-

ers when registering for the event at an

early time (paying a premium, if required).

Individual participants would be given

the opportunity to discuss specific issues

directly with selected experts during short

time windows. For speakers, the incentive

would be a higher compensation and / or

the higher probability of a new assignment.

When exploiting the technological potential

in the area of holographic 3D projection, the

selected personalities and experts do not

even need to be present in person.

Depending on the number of participants

interested, small or large areas of the

meeting room can be separated by means

of various lighting scenarios, for exam-

ple, where the selected experts, including

potential objects of demonstration, can be

displayed as large as life and addressed.

Local embedding

In order to ensure high and constant use

to capacity of the expensive buildings and

rooms as well as to strengthen the local

and regional embedding (which should be

highly appreciated in view of sustainabil-

ity efforts), event organisers also open up

towards smaller organisations and institu-

tions (associations, schools, etc.) which had

not been addressed so far. For this purpose,

special offers and scheduled events are

created.

Participants (including speakers) travelling a

long way to attend meetings and conven-

tions are offered to bring their partners

or families to avoid being constantly

separated. Special accompanying offers or

exclusive visitor programmes in companies

and with experts are offered to this end.

This enhances the attractiveness of events

even if the attendees need to make long

journeys.

68

SCENARIO

TechnologyThe increasing use of technology at meetings and conventions and the changing needs of their attendees have led to the introduction of novel event concepts by 2030. Strict rules and fixed locations are abandoned to the benefit of flexibility.

Scenarios

69

Events increasingly become places of

communication. Attractive environ-

ments meeting the specific require-

ments not only enhance the efficiency

but also the effectiveness of meetings

and conventions. Ultimately, powerful

technological equipment of the event

locations and technological support

for all processes in all phases of value

creation — starting with preparation, ex-

ecution and through to follow-up — are

decisive criteria for successful events.

Particularly meetings of highly political

significance are supported by the appli-

cation of selected security technologies.

Not least, the usage of novel technolo-

gies and the establishment of innova-

tive processes are the basis for many

new business models in the meeting

and conventions industry.

Concepts of decentralised eventsIn 2030, various technologies for sup-

porting decentralised event concepts are

available to the organisers of meet-

ings and conventions. This enhanced

approach has proved successful for the

national and international economy

in particular, but also for the increas-

ingly globalised area of politics. In 2030,

decentralised concepts are applied

especially for meetings and conventions

that accompany trade shows — and

often on an international scale. For this

purpose, innovation-oriented megacities

in the U.S.A., Asia and Europe are often

included as event partners.

The professional and reliable collabora-

tion of the German players with other

countries has enhanced the status of

Germany as a whole and intensified

existing cooperations. Extending the

concepts towards globally distributed

decentralised structures not only reflects

the innovation-oriented needs of econo-

my and politics but also their obligation

to meet the sustainability requirements

in social and ecological matters. As part

of decentrally organised events, not only

various locations all over the world but

also virtual rooms are connected.

A factor for the success of decentralised

event concepts is the establishment of a

guiding concept which coordinates the in-

dividual parts of the event taking place at

different locations and in the virtual room,

constantly matches them with the greater

meeting and convention goals, and brings

together the players involved in terms of

contents and communication.

Use of technologies during preparation, execution and follow-up

The extended use of technologies in the

meeting and conventions industry espe-

cially leads to an enhanced interaction

between the bearers of knowledge and

experience. Modern technologies sup-

port personal contact and the possibility

of exchanging information between

all persons involved. This applies to all

stages of events: from preparation, over

execution, through to follow-up.

The preparation stage of meetings and

conventions has been substantially

appreciated by the use of new technolo-

gies. This is true not only with regard to

the attraction of participants but also

for the entire concept of the event. It is

no longer sufficient to plan and execute

an event the traditional way. The new

generation of people who have grown

up with social media expects to receive

a large part of the information already

in the run-up to the event. At the same

time people expect that their individual

interests and skills are strongly taken

into account. In 2030, the stakeholders

relevant to the event are involved in the

selection and prioritising of event topics

and locations as well as in the planning

for the framework programme using

modern collaboration solutions. A series

of technology-supported services has

proved useful allowing access to selected

information with regard to topics and

participants. Background information,

key activities and interests of the poten-

tial virtual and physical participants are

provided, for example. At a predefined

time, proposed additional items to

the planned key topic of the event are

matched and finalised ("reality check").

Virtually and physically

As a rule, events with on-site attend-

ance are enhanced by virtual elements,

which leads to various combinations of

"hybrid events" dominating the market.

Dialogue will be in the centre of such

events even in 2030. During an event,

the audience is actively involved based

on innovative technologies, submitting

information, planning activities, and

gathering data. But networking of the

participants is technologically supported

as well: both with regard to planned

and carefully prepared networking, and

with regard to organising spontaneous,

unreckoned connections. Communication

on site correlates with the communica-

tion in the virtual room. This requires

the organisational, content-related

and technical matching of individual

elements, and primarily the planning of

physical and virtual units which has to be

integrated from the beginning.

OLED — the two-dimensional light source

The assessments by the technology

experts interviewed of the probability of

a future distribution of 3D projections,

multibiometric systems and OLED’s in

the meeting and conventions industry

differ greatly. The probability is high

that OLEDs will be widely applied and

also used in the industry. Regarding the

period of distribution, over 40 per cent

of the persons interviewed suspect that

OLEDs will be widely used by 2019 at the

latest. For 3D projectors, probability is

assessed less high, but over 60 per cent

of the persons interviewed think

Scenarios

•

70

Scenarios

FICTION

Decentralised congress locations and efficient use of technology

Welcome to the holodeck: Here, the world is communicating!

Ever shorter intervals for ground-

breaking medical diagnostics and

therapy options require a timely

training of medical professionals.

This is the reason why Education

Enterprises has specialised in educa-

tion conventions for the health sector

already early. Review and evaluation

of scientific publications and research

series are performed constantly. Thus,

project manager Samuel Baier knows

at an early time that a novel opera-

tion procedure for geriatric surgery

is almost ready to be marketed and

renowned clinics are already waiting

for corresponding training. The time is

right to organise a convention on this

topic.

At the beginning of the 2020ies,

preparation of scientific congresses is

significantly facilitated by using the

Semantic Web: while the World Wide

Web just links data, the Semantic Web

allows targeted linking of meanings

and their processing by a computer,

which independently interprets and

further processes the information

thereby generating new contents .

The Semantic Web and the use of con-

vergent technologies make search work

easier for Samuel Baier, which signifi-

cantly reduces the preparation time for

meetings . Shortly after his enquiry via

the language assistant, Samuel Baier

receives a list of high-quality lecturers

selected by their awards, sociocultural

background and audience rating . On

the Lightboard — a high-resolution,

ultra-thin display made to measure for

his office walls — locations for national

face-to-face conventions on the pre-

determined date are proposed, sorted

by capacities and technical equip-

ment . After choosing the locations and

confirming the booking, Baier invites

his favourite lecturers for a kick-off

meeting: Professor Neubert and the

American McAtee are old acquaint-

ances, Professor Xiping is needed as

a magnet for the Asian professional

audience . Confidently, Baier intro-

duces Professor Sara Akhondy to the

illustrious round . The Chief Physician

of the Tehran University Clinics shows

excellent holo-grams of complicated

neck of femur fractures and immedi-

ately agrees to train colleagues in the

novel operation technique live on the

holodeck .

Baier forwards the convention script

enhanced by 3D picture material to the

marketing department . Aside from a

portal where the event is published

to be seen by all clinics or hospitals

of any size, designers create a colour

concept for the OLED panels as well

as a sound and fragrance CI in order

to add the corresponding atmosphere

to all advertising materials — and to

the decentralised convention loca-

tions in particular . Comprehensive data

protection is established in parallel:

access rights to personal and profes-

sional information comply with the

international Privacy Guideline and

are granted depending on the type

of booking — physical attendance or

virtual attendance .

During the convention, Samuel Baier

selects the camera pictures of the con-

vention locations for live transmission

from the control room and enhances

discussions by introducing virtual

experts and posing specific questions

from the Web Community .

At the same time, follow-up of the

convention starts: an excerpt is dis-

tributed via open source, the in-house

scientific publisher publishes the

convention results as e-book . Samuel

Baier notes that a large number of

orders originate from small hospitals

and considers the thought to choose

a typical country doctor topic for the

next convention .

71

that the probability of distribution will

be medium or high. The time of expected

implementation, however, is assumed to

be far into the year 2030. The probability

of distribution of multibiometric systems

in the meeting and conventions industry

is assessed even lower: only 12.5 per cent

of the responders consider the probability

to be high. The time of implementation is

expected to be near 2024 by a third of the

persons interviewed, but the variation is

wide here as well.

In the area of lighting concepts, OLEDs (Or-

ganic Light-Emitting Diodes) will have tak-

en hold as widely used standard by 2030.

This two-dimensional light source emits

soft and largely non-glare light without

sharp shadows as required at many event

locations. As OLEDs are extremely thin and

lightweight — with a thickness of less than

500 nanometres, which is around 100 times

thinner than a human hair — they form the

basis for completely novel applications on

walls, wallpaper or in furniture and fabrics.

OLEDs are used as luminous areas, forming

direction signs at event centres or hotels,

for example. Part of the windows — espe-

cially at large event centres — completely

consist of OLED panels. If turned off, they

allow looking outside, turned on, they emit

light in any desired colour and colour tem-

perature, while at the same time protecting

the interior of the meeting and convention

centre from views from the outside. OLED-

based lighting scenarios also support the

formation of subject-specific islands which

are often created spontaneously at meet-

ings and conventions. In addition, so-called

co-working spaces offer sound-insulated

glass telephone boxes, service points and

meeting areas.

Science Fiction

In 2030, the holodecks known from Sci-

ence Fiction are used as simulated 3D

environment in some event formats. This

way, topics are made more palpable for all

participants: virtual objects, such as balls

or wooden blocks, can be touched with the

hands on the holodeck. Objects which are

actually not real can be touched, thrown

back and forth, piled one over the other. Lec-

turers who are not physically present are in-

volved in the event using 3D projection.

Scenarios

AS OLEDS ARE EXTREMELY THIN AND LIGHTWEIGHT, THEY FORM THE BASIS FOR COMPLE-TELY NOVEL APPLI-CATIONS ON WALLS, WALLPAPER, OR IN FURNITURE AND FABRICS.

•

•

c12,5%by 2014

20,8%by 2024

29,2%by 2019

8,3%by 2030

When?

50%

high

25%

medium

0%

low

25%

don’t know / n.s.

In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:

“Organic Light-Emitting Diodes (OLED’s) have taken hold as the new generation of lighting. The light saves energy and can be generated in various hues and shapes.”

4,2%after 2030

72

Scenarios

For the attendees, the illusion is gener-

ated that they are in the same room with

the speaker or the objects demonstrated

during the lecture. This supports the trend

towards a smaller size of meeting and

convention formats. Accordingly, more

experts who make only brief contributions

can be involved. This can also be decided

spontaneously, when participants need

further and more specific information or

clarification, for example.

On the fly

Follow-up of meetings and conventions is

supported by the use of new technologies

as well. In principle, minutes of meeting

are created directly during the event and

made available in real time. Depending on

the character of the event, this is carried

out via a "closed shop" or freely accessible

for all persons interested. During follow-

up, findings from the event are validated,

corrected or amended, if required, via

a web-based communication platform.

Such platforms are not only content-

related storage spaces for knowledge but

You say that meeting and convention attendees will no longer want to be quiet recipi-ents in fixed seating rows in the future but will advance to become networked active play-ers. What are the indicators for such change? And which challenges do you see for the meeting and conventions industry?

"The role image at meetings, seminars,

and conventions is going through a

radical change. Participants actually do

no longer want to be quiet recipients in

fixed seating rows. They wish to be of-

fered options to be able to make com-

ments, assessments, and to actively

participate. Digitalisation and the large

number of technical innovations have

strongly altered the communication

habits of modern individuals and thus

also their expectations with regard to

communication platforms and media.

This especially applies to the Internet

and its activation for the everyday use

of social networks and mobile devices.

The challenge for meetings and con-

ventions is not just to react on this

change but to take advantage of it.

Many online, social media and mobile

tools are used during meetings already

today. But the development pos-

sibilities have not been exhausted

by far. Innovation potential not only

lies with the hardware but with the

development of holistic, networked

concepts in particular. This requires

discipline-spanning collaboration.

This collaboration functions well at an

in-house innovation lab where media

designers, software developers and

scenographers perform joint research

and development. Therefore, commu-

nication options may open up, going

far beyond the traditional commenting

and evaluating. In the future, the point

will be to create new and intelligent

interfaces in order to filter the contents

of an event according to individual in-

terests and combine them to generate

new results. And the goal is what we

call "interconnection": to bring together

people with similar interests to allow

them to exchange information and

experiences, jointly develop new ideas,

and to make a difference together. We

see visitors, speakers and organisers as

active elements of a networked world

where they interact before, during and

after the meeting.

Such interconnective concepts may

enhance the quality of meetings and

conventions with regard to all impor-

tant criteria: relevance of the contents,

acquisition of knowledge, team build-

ing or matching of participants, quality

of the dialogue, and the organisational

course of events. Embedded in a good

scenographic concept, they can effec-

tively initiate and accompany commu-

nication processes."

•

Thomas Frenzel, Milla & Partner GmbH

73

Scenarios

also central places of communication and

interconnection of all persons involved.

Based on swarm intelligence via the web,

mainly the event locations frequented by

political or economic top personalities are

controlled and secured. In the scope of

the extended security concept, the water

infrastructure, for example, moves into

the centre of attention: small robot fish

used in the drinking water system inde-

pendently communicate with each other

using a web-based software in order to

identify and assess changes of the water

quality which might be hazardous to

health. In case of certain value patterns

or value clusters, measures to clean the

water are taken or an alarm is triggered.

New service segments

Surprise effects serving to generate

emotions in the participants are still an

essential part of meetings and conven-

tions. The requirements with regard to

the planning and coordination of meet-

ings and conventions have grown given

the increasing use of technology and

flexibilisation. Thus, the organisers are

facing high requirements with regard to

their technical skills. As a consequence,

a specialised service segment for the use

of convergent technologies at meetings

and conventions has become estab-

lished.

20,8%by 2019

0,8%2019

c20,8%by 2030

29,2%by 2024

When?

25%

high

38%

medium

12%

low

25%

don’t know / n.s.

In the scope of the Delphi survey, industry experts judged the following theory with regard to probability and time:“3D projectors provide plastic and true-to-reality full-colour images. The result are three-dimensional light figures: holograms”3D

74

Summary

75

Summary

Summary of Study Results This study has a broad sociological and multidisciplinary foundation that includes a wide range of experiences and perspectives in and outside of the industry. The intent was to avoid overrating individual popular trends and losing sight of the whole picture, the realities and probabilities. To make realistic assessments, it is necessary to look at the many factors and phenomena as well as their interactions and dynamics.

76

R The Most Important Results: In the next two decades the „hu-man measure“ (Albert Schweitzer) will still be an important guideline for processes of change.

In his book Megatrends, John Naisbitt re-

fers to continuous tension between various

forces and trends. Concerning the use of

new technologies, he points out that, even

with all the new technological options and

applications, human beings have to be con-

sidered - with all their desires and abilities,

fears and preferences desires. This is why

he speaks of re-balancing the relationship

between „high tech“ and „high touch,“ the

concrete use of new technology and, at the

same time, the need for human and social

contact and awareness of human needs.

R The study shows that options such as knowledge transfer, technology and architecture will increase in use in the meetings and will supplement previous formats and concepts.

This will mean combining communication

technologies such as „cloud computing“

with building technology and the „Inter-

net of Things and Services,“ holography

for the visualization of presentations (in

integrated wellness sequences), meeting

preparation and follow-up or opinion polls

using innovative visualization techniques.

Select megatrends were defined to illus-

trate these developments. In the online

survey, industry experts rated the follow-

ing megatrends as especially relevant:

Summary

Technology

Globalisation

Mobility

Sustainability

Demographic Change

Security

Peak Everything

Urbanisation

Feminisation

very strongly strongly less strongly not at all don’t know not specified

26.0 14.337.7

28,.6 10.439.0

41.6 7.827.3

20,8 20,836,4

18.2 10.451.9

10,.4 26.032.5

10,4 22.140.3

24.7 40.32.6

22.1 36.43.9

What social megatrends do you think will seriously influence and challenge the meetings industry in the medium term?

(Online survey question)

Figures in % n=77

77

» Technology in Work and Life

» Globalisation and Internationalisation

» Demographic Change, Feminisation and

Diversity

» Mobility of the Future

» Sustainable Development

Technology will specifically shape and chal-

lenge the meetings industry by 2030. The

Internet, social media and mobile devices

are the sources of this transformation.

R A majority of people in the industrial countries will poten-tially have access to almost all information almost always.

In the „Internet of Things,“ it will be pos-

sible to identify, localise and steer not only

data, but also many devices and everyday

objects directly through the Internet. This

will have a significant effect on the organi-

zation of meetings and conventions. It will

open up the way for completely new models

of organization and division of labor.

R Virtual meetings - spread around the whole world - will theoretically be possible.

„Rooms will have to be arranged for ac-

commodating ‚virtual‘ speakers who don‘t

want to travel long distances.“ (Stefan

Rief, Fraunhofer IAO) But virtualisation

also opens up new questions: How much

presence and how many integration and

communication services are necessary to

achieve meetings and conventions?

R In sum, the use of various technologies will lead to event formats lasting longer.

Ideally, meetings and conventions will be

preceded by an intensive customer-orient-

ed introductory phase and concluded with

a professional follow-up which includes all

participants who were actively involved.

The internationalisation of science and

economics will lead to increased network-

ing needs and expenses for all organisa-

tions involved.

This also accelerates the technisation of

the meetings. There will be an increasing

demand for collaboration technologies

such as Audio- and video conferences, digi-

tal whiteboards, visualisers, shared views,

shared applications or holodecks.

R Need-based systems that contribute to communication and collaboration in groups sepa-rated by time and/or distance will become more important for future meetings and conferences.

Various locations around the world and

virtual rooms will be linked with each other

during decentralised events. The success

of these concepts depends on a central

concept in order to coordinate the event

elements in different locations and virtual

spaces, adjust them to the meeting and

convention goals and communicate with

everyone involved.

Organisers of meetings and conventions

already use a variety of technologies to

collect feedback.

R It is very likely that interactive events will become more impor-tant or even one of the central success factors in the future.

The integration and involvement of partici-

pants - that is, the integration of knowl-

edge, participant experience and expecta-

tions of the meeting or convention can

be improved during events. Future event

formats will be required to take the place

of today‘s normal lecture style or supple-

ment it with active participation. People

at meetings and conventions will probably

use their own mobile devices to contribute

to the interaction, running and manage-

ment of events.

R With increasing use of technology, an essential condition for successful future meetings and conventions will be the provision of „anthropomorphic“ human-machine interfaces for technical systems that can obtain usable information from users‘ contextual and often vague input.

Graphic design of technical features such

as screens or displays, entry type and pro-

Summary

b

SUMMARYTHE INCREASING PRE-VALENCE OF TECHNO-LOGY WILL GREATLY AFFECT AND CHAL-LENGE THE MEETINGS INDUSTRY.

78

Feminisation

Individualisation

Respect and Tolerance

Aging Society

Change in Values

Environmental Standards

New Social Standards

Transparency through the Internet

Modernisation Needs

Depletion of Natural Resources

SecuritySSeecS

Demographic Change

Sustainabililty

Peak Everythingthinggggg

Mobility

Globalisation

Technoloy

UrbanisationNew Educational Requirements

New Competence Requirements

A Question of Ethics

Virtualisation

Data Protection

Need for Flexibility

Rising Energy Needs

Rising Costs

Aging Society

curitycuriitic

Intercultural Skills

Data security

More Competitiveness

New Life and Work Forms

79

Feminisation

Individualisation

Respect and Tolerance

Aging Society

Change in Values

Environmental Standards

New Social Standards

Transparency through the Internet

Modernisation Needs

Depletion of Natural Resources

SecuritySSeecS

Demographic Change

Sustainabililty

Peak Everythingthinggggg

Mobility

Globalisation

Technoloy

UrbanisationNew Educational Requirements

New Competence Requirements

A Question of Ethics

Virtualisation

Data Protection

Need for Flexibility

Rising Energy Needs

Rising Costs

Aging Society

curitycuriitic

Intercultural Skills

Data security

More Competitiveness

New Life and Work Forms

80

cess logic will have to be compatible to allow

comfortable, intuitive use. Poor ergonomic

design could complicate or even prevent

interaction between people and machines.

Text-based interfaces used to be the norm;

now graphic user interfaces and touchscreens

have taken their place. In the future, more

natural interfaces such as speech and gesture

recognition will become important in transfer

of knowledge. With increasing data traffic in

the Internet and the growing importance of

cloud computing, the Internet of Things and

Services, social networks and mobile devices,

business activities in the meetings industry

will shift to a virtual level. This study indi-

cates that security and data protection will

be seriously affected, and this will influence

usability and people’s reactions to it.

R Information security, data protection and the private sphere will represent some of the most important and complicated chal-lenges for the industry, particularly for event organisers.

Technological developments will also affect

mobility - arrival to and departure from

meeting and convention event locations plus

moving about while there. Technical and

organisational security measures have to be

developed and used to guarantee informa-

tion security as far as possible.

R In the future people will be able to reach every place on earth more quickly, safely and ecologically responsibly through the use of mul-timodal transportation systems.

Ideally, the Internet of Things will bring

about a new relationship between private

and public transportation systems with an

almost complete information exchange be-

tween different transport carriers/systems

and the surrounding area. It will be impor-

tant to have multimodal concepts where all

available offers mesh with each other.

R Lifelong learning will play a major role in the meetings industry; education will be future-oriented.

Megatrends don‘t have to do with definable

processes of change, but with processes in

societies that interact with each other. Due

to the acceleration of change, the fast pace

of life and sociological dynamics, there are

more and more challenges for people and

also for the meetings industry. As a result,

lifelong learning is particularly relevant for

this industry: Long-term, holistic thinking

has to be the imperative. The right decisions

and actions are becoming an absolute condi-

tion. In this context, the goal of education

and qualification must be to promote a

„future-oriented, self-reflecting approach“

(habitus).

R The central task for all relevant actors in the meetings industry will be to inspire efforts for the intelligent and target group/customer design of events using new technologies and innovative formats the right way.

Knowledge of technological possibilities and

their correct use will be essential in the fu-

ture. Even with all the necessary specialisa-

tion, people will need to acquire basic skills

and understand the interaction, the pos-

sibilities and limits as well as risks in using

technical devices, modules and programs.

R Due to ongoing globalisation, mastery of other languages – with the support of technical devices and applications – will become the standard, along with the acquisi-tion of intercultural knowledge and competence.

This require sensitivity, the ability to reflect

and a level of emotional intelligence. For

the most part, competency and skills can be

developed in the usual learning contexts or

online. Direct acquisition and qualification

can best be achieved through travel or living

abroad.

R The variety of technical options on one hand and diversification of participants on the other will lead to special challenges.

An extreme example is the use of service

robots in event buildings, i.e., for clean-

ing, security or other routine work. Robots

could be used for assisting disabled

IN THE FUTURE NATURAL INTERFACES SUCH AS SPEECH AND GESTURE RECOGNITION WILL GAIN IN IMPORTANCE.

b

b

4.2%after 2030

In this study, industry experts were asked how probable they considered the following thesis:

c12.5%by 2030

12.5%by 2030

20.8%by 2024

20.8%by2024

25%by 2019

8.3%by 2014

When?

"The semantic web is accepted as an extension of the World Wide Web. Pure data is now information with important content. Users receive useful, credible answers without having to evaluate search engine results in advance."

33% 21% 17% 29%

high middle low don't know/not specified

c16.7%by 2014

16.7%by2024

16.7%by 2019

29.2%by 2019

8.3%after 2030

When?

"Cloud computing has taken over everywhere as a flexible use of IT services. Most private and business data can be found in the Internet data cloud. PCs no longer have physical hard drives. Laptops, smartphones and tablets are the primary computer systems."

54% 8% 8% 29%

12 5%16.7%c

8.3%after 2030

When?

"The Internet of Things has taken over. Event locations are full of intelligent devices that communicate and are linked with each other. They know what visitors want and where they should go next, o�ering the information people need about their immediate surroundings."

21% 29% 21% 29%

high middle low


don't know/not specified

Summary

81

Zusammenfassung

4.2%after 2030

In this study, industry experts were asked how probable they considered the following thesis:

c12.5%by 2030

12.5%by 2030

20.8%by 2024

20.8%by2024

25%by 2019

8.3%by 2014

When?

"The semantic web is accepted as an extension of the World Wide Web. Pure data is now information with important content. Users receive useful, credible answers without having to evaluate search engine results in advance."

33% 21% 17% 29%


c16.7%by 2014

16.7%by2024

16.7%by 2019

29.2%by 2019

8.3%after 2030

When?

"Cloud computing has taken over everywhere as a flexible use of IT services. Most private and business data can be found in the Internet data cloud. PCs no longer have physical hard drives. Laptops, smartphones and tablets are the primary computer systems."

54% 8% 8% 29%

12 5%16.7%c

8.3%after 2030

When?

"The Internet of Things has taken over. Event locations are full of intelligent devices that communicate and are linked with each other. They know what visitors want and where they should go next, o�ering the information people need about their immediate surroundings."

21% 29% 21% 29%

high middle low


don't know/not specified

82

b participants, including older people or

guests with limited mobility, who could

then move more easily in and around

convention buildings with the help of

specially modified robots.

R Event complexes and facilities will be subject to increasing quality demands.

Modernisation will have a special role in

this area with new and higher stand-

ards, monitoring, public ranking and

government, association and customer

ratings. Competition will increase and

some market sectors will further glo-

balise. Energy consumption, one of the

great cost factors, will have a decisive

role as prices continue to rise.

R There will be important consequences for the meetings industry due to ongoing demo-graphic change.

These need to be specifically assessed.

The increasing number of older people

coming to meetings and conventions

will be particularly important. Techni-

cal and organisational concepts already

exist or need to be developed. The

industry has to adjust to this change in

its own organisations and businesses,

with responses such as „age manage-

ment“ and/or „diversity management.“

Attention must be given to workforce

and team composition, personnel sup-

port and qualification, and finding work

suitable to age, specific cultural skills or

other special needs.

Best Practice: LINCThe future of conventions is already visible in the Leipzig Interventional Course

at the CCL Congress Center Leipzig.

The CCL recently hosted the Leipzig

Interventional Course (LINC) for the

fifth time . The LINC, one of the most

important conventions in the field of

minimally invasive vascular medicine,

is directed toward doctors with various

specialties from around the world .

Predictions that industry experts have

made about conventions of the future

have already become reality at the

LINC convention .

Rigid space and time limits between

various parts of a convention will

increasingly dissolve.

Conventions are getting more integra-

tive and communicative . The partici-

pants design their own „pick-and-mix“

package from parts of the program

that are most interesting and impor-

tant to them, move around between

sessions, posters and exhibitions,

and use every opportunity to network

informally .

The layout of conventions will change

in order to optimally meet the need for

more flexibility and integration.

At LINC the structural boundaries blur

between lecture halls, exhibitions,

poster area, foyers and catering zones .

All event zones are within sight and

sound and create a complete unit . As

modern as this layout is, it does take

on one archaic (cultural) concept: the

idea of the marketplace .

Sensory experiences will play a greater

role in future convention design.

Color, form, lighting - LINC‘s well-

thought-out design and lighting con-

cept goes far beyond mere decoration

and has obviously been influenced by

the wellness idea .

Technical requirements at conventions

will get more ambitious and complex:

The LINC places the highest demands

on network- and presentation technol-

ogy . Live worldwide coverage, X-ray

livestreams and explanatory charts

can all be projected on screens at the

same time . In addition, participants

can test CCL‘s technical capacity and

WLAN-infrastructure with their mo-

bile terminals .

Summary

83

"In choosing to have an event in Germany, which of the following criteria do you think will be more important in 2030 than they are now? Which are becoming more important?"

Transportation Links

Source: Study “Meetings and Conventions 2030: A study of megatrends shaping our industry”

Attractiveness Technology Contact

Value for money Sustainability Key Industries Exhibition Areas

Catering

58% 55% 50% 43% 42% 38% 32% 28% 25%

Summary

R Another finding of the study: The greatest number of respond-ents assumes that sustainability will remain relevant, even crucial, and that industry actors will have to deal with it more intensively.

Participants expect that German suppliers

will continue to score with their sustain-

ability expertise - especially as the eco-

logical damage and negative impact from

Western and global production and way

of life become more evident, frequent and

violent. Offering of sustainable solutions

and practices can therefore be a genuine

advantage that sets suppliers apart from

others.

R Sustainable development will become an important quality factor and criterion in choosing convention and meeting loca-tions. It will be a crucial advan-tage in the competition among event centers and destinations.

Germany can already boast with this

advantage. As the focus on sustainability

continues to rise, i.e., due to the effects of

climate change, this quality factor will pay

off for pioneers like Germany, as a reliable

image is something that has to be built

and maintained over years. As a result,

certifications and rankings will become

even more important in influencing the

success of destinations.

84

Select social models from contem-

porary social sciences provided the

theoretical basis for the trend analyses:

Multi-option Society (Peter Gross),

(Event) Society (Gerhard Schultze),

Risk Society (Ulrich Beck), Second

Modernity and Reflexive Modernisation

(Ulrich Beck, Anthony Giddens), Post-

growth Society (Angelika Zahrnt) and

Great Transformation (WBGU-German

Advisory Council on Global Change).

Important developments in modern so-

cieties were designated as megatrends:

globalisation and internationalisa-

tion, „peak everything,“ urbanisation,

demographic change, feminisation and

diversity, technology in work and life,

sustainable development, mobility of the

future, and security and safety.

The procedure can be understood as the

use of an expanding „range of possibili-

ties“ for future developments („pos-

sible futures“). Feasible and plausible

future developments will no longer

be as extensive as conditions become

more restrictive. An additional reduc-

tion was possible when we focused on

probable futures, which are limited by

power structures, customs and technical

capacities. These analytical steps could

be rapidly dealt with in the study. In the

context of „Meetings and Conventions

2030,“ we decided on an even more

limited category - „preferable futures.“

These are the developments, activities

and effects that are particularly impor-

tant for the German Convention Bureau,

its members and project partners and

should be used proactively. They were

examined and clarified by the Institute

for Future Studies and Technology As-

sessment (IZT) and during the scenario

workshop.

Methods and ProcedureThe study is based on literature and document evaluation, a brainstorming workshop, interviews with experts and the three proven methods of scientific future research: trend analyses, scenario development and roadmapping.

The Research Process

Interviews with Experts from the meetings industry and other industries

22 interviews were conducted with

industry experts as well as specialists

in the fields of knowledge transfer,

technologies and architecture. The 30

to 60 minute interviews took place from

January to May 2013. Together with

Methods

the IZT (Institute for Futures Studies

and Technology Assessment) team, we

made a selection that is included in the

appendix.

Delphi Method

To evaluate the most important techno-

logical developments and breakthroughs

for the meetings industry up until 2030,

we conducted a survey using the Delphi

method. This took place online in two

sessions with 24 German and international

experts.

Information: The Delphi method was

designed for strategic and military pur-

poses in the USA in the 1940s by the RAND

Corporation, a think tank that advised the

US military.

85

The Research Process and the Instruments

Desktop ResearchMegatrends and Trends

Links between Trend and Industry Development

Technological Development: Event Technology, Robotics, Web, Energy

Ideas and Visions for Architecture, Technology, Knowledge Transfer

Validation of Various Apects from the Industry Perspective

Interviews with Experts

Delphi with Experts

Scenario-Workshop

Online Survey

A group of experts receive a series of

questions to be answered anonymously.

In the second round, the participants

evaluate the questions and propositions

after receiving a summary of the results.

This gives them the opportunity to reflect

on their answers and assessments with

the help of the group results and to

change them if they want. The use of a

summary during the second round of the

study is basically an exchange of views.

All of the respondents‘ opinions are being

considered. Due to the anonymity of the

summary, participants can‘t be influenced

by other more dominant participants. De-

pending on its set-up, a Delphi study can

help determine the views of experts (i.e.,

the probability of a technical invention

and when it might come about), collect

topic ideas, choose selected issues or get

a consensus on certain subjects.

Online Survey

77 people from the meetings industry

were invited to take part in an online

survey with select topics from the study.

The online survey was conducted in April

and May 2013.

Scenario workshop

On April 9, 2013, an all-day workshop was

hosted in Frankfurt with 20 participants

who openly discussed topics concerning

the future of the meetings industry as

well as possible scenarios.

Seen from our vantage point now, it looks

as if the range of possibilities is on the

increase. Scientific future research differ-

entiates between (1) „possible,“ (2) „plau-

sible,“ (3) „probable,“ and (4) „desirable

(preferable)“ futures. The opportunities

and risks are distributed differently, but

scenarios can definitely help in describing

future conditions.

Methods

86

Literature/LinksThis section contains selected publications and resources that are important and recommended for individual in-depth study of the relevant topics and methods.

A collection of links is included at www.gcb.de/en/future

Appendix

Social Change

Beck, Ulrich/Bonß, Wolfgang (Hrsg.) (2001): Die Modernisierung der Moderne. Suhrkamp, Frankfurt/Main

Diamond, Jared (2006): Kollaps. Warum Gesellschaften überleben oder untergehen. Verlag S. Fischer, Frankfurt/Main

Giddens, Anthony (2009): Politics of Climate Change. University of Oxford Press, Oxford

IPCC – International Panel on Climate Change (2011): IPCC Special Report on Renewable En-ergy Sources and Climate Change Mitigation. Edenhofer, O. et al (eds), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge and New York

Kanatschnig, Dietmar/Schmutz, Petra (2004): Institutionelle In-novationsstrategien – 60 Ideen zur Initiierung und Umsetzung eines nachhaltigen Strukturwandels. Österreichisches Institut für Nach-haltige Entwicklung

Kristof, Kora (2010): Models of Change. Einführung und Verbrei-tung sozialer Innovationen und gesellschaftlicher Veränderungen in transdisziplinärer Perspektive. Vdf Hochschulverlag, Zürich

Leggewie, Claus/Welzer, Harald (2010): Das Ende der Welt, wie wir sie kannten. S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/Main

Millennium Project (Hrsg.) (2013): State of the Future Jerome C. Glenn/Theodore J. Gordon/Elizabeth Florescu; World Federation of United Nations As-sociations. Washington, D.C.

Rosa, Hartmut (2012): Weltbezie-hungen im Zeitalter der Beschle-unigung. Umrisse einer neuen Gesellschaftskritik. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main

Rosen, Richard A./Electris, Chris-ti/Raskin, Paul D. (2010): Global Scenarios for the Century Ahead: Searching for Sustainability. Tellus Institute, Boston/USA

Speth, James Gustave (2008): The Bridge at the Edge of the World. Capitalism, the Environment, and Crossing From Crisis to Sustain-ability. Yale University Press, New Haven

Globalisation

Beck, Ulrich (1997): Was ist Glo-balisierung? Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main

Le Monde Diplomatique (Hrsg.) (diverse Jahrgänge): Atlas der Glo-balisierung. Sehen und verstehen, was die Welt bewegt. taz Verlag, Berlin

Millennium Project (2012): State of the Future Report 2012. Washington, D.C.

Peak Everything

Gerstengarbe, Friedrich-Wilhelm/Welzer, Harald (Hrsg.) (2013): Zwei Grad mehr in Deutschland. Wie der Klimawandel unseren Alltag verändern wird. Fischer, Frankfurt/Main

Randers, Jorgen (2012): 2052. Der neue Bericht an den Club of Rome: Eine globale Prognose für die nächsten 40 Jahre. Oekom Verlag, München

Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie GmbH (2008): Zukunftsfähiges Deutschland in einer globalisierten Welt – ein Anstoß zur gesellschaftlichen Debatte (2. Auflage). Brot für die Welt, Evangelischer Entwicklungsdienst, BUND (Hrsg.). Fischer Taschenbuch Verlag, Frank-furt/Main

City of the Future

UN-Habitat (2006): Sustainable Cities Programme 1990–2000 – A Decade of United Nations Support to Broad-based Participatory Man-agement of Urban Development.

United Nations (Hrsg.) (2009): World Urbanization Prospects. The 2009 Revision. New York

Portal für europäische Nach-richten, Hintergründe und Kommunikation - EurActiv.de - YellowPaper „Stadt der Zukunft" (2011): Analysen, Standpunkte und Interviews zur europäischen Stadtentwicklung. EMM, Berlin

Acatech bezieht Position – Nr. 10 (2011): Smart Cities, Deutsche Hochtechnologie für die Stadt der Zukunft. Aufgaben und Chancen. Springer Verlag, Berlin

Beuth Hochschule für Technik Berlin (2012): Angewandte Forschung zur Stadt der Zukunft. Aktuelle Forschungsarbeiten zu urbanen Technologien und Infrastrukturen sowie urbanem Leben Logos Verlag, Berlin

Demographic Change

Statistisches Bundesamt (2009): Bevölkerung Deutschlands bis 2060 – 12. koordinierte Bevölkerungsvoraus-berechnung.

Bertelsmann Stiftung (2011): Deutschland im demografischen Wandel 2030. Datenreport.

Feminisation and Diversity

Beck, Ulrich/Beck-Gernsheim, Elisabeth (Hrsg.) (1994): Riskante Freiheiten. Individualisierung in modernen Gesellschaften. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main

Jansen, Mechthild M. et al. (2003): Gender Mainstreaming. Heraus-forderung für den Dialog der Geschlechter. Olzog Verlag, München

Rosa, Hartmut (2012): Weltbezie-hungen im Zeitalter der Beschle-unigung. Umrisse einer neuen Gesellschaftskritik. Suhrkamp Verlag, Frankfurt/Main

Technology in Work and Life

Biesecker, Adelheid/Baier, Andrea (2011): Gutes Leben braucht andere Arbeit. oekom e.V. – Verein für ökologische Kommunikation (Hrsg.): Anders arbe-iten, München

Friedewald, Michael et al. (2010): Ubiquitäres Computing. TAB-Studie Nr. 31. 2010, Berlin

Hilty, Lorenz/Oertel, Britta/Wölk, Michaela/Pärli, Kurt (2012): Lokalisiert und identifiziert : Wie Ortungstechnologien unser Leben verändern. TA-Swiss. vdf Hochschulverlag, Zürich

87

Appendix

Spath, Dieter (Hrsg.) (2012): Arbeitswelten 4.0. Wie wir morgen arbeiten und leben. Fraunhofer IAO

VDI/VDE Innovation + Technik GmbH (Hrsg.) (2012): ips - innova-tion positioning system. Schw-erpunktthema: Mensch-Technik-Interaktion. Februar 2012

Sustainable Development

Grober, Ulrich (2010): Die Entdeck-ung der Nachhaltigkeit. Kulturge-schichte eines Begriffs. Verlag Antje Kunstmann, München

Haderlapp, Thomas/Trattnigg, Rita (2913): Zukunftsfähigkeit ist eine Frage der Kultur. Hemmnisse, Widersprüche und Gelingensfak-toren des kulturellen Wandels. ökom Verlag, München

UNEP – United Nations Environ-ment Programme (2012): Sustain-able Events Guide. Give your large event a small footprint. Nairobi/Kenia

Welzer, Harald/Wiegandt, Klaus (Hrsg.) (2011): Perspektiven einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung: Wie sieht die Welt im Jahr 2050 aus? S. Fischer Verlag, Frankfurt/Main

Wissenschaftlicher Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveränderungen – WBGU (2011): Welt im Wandel. Gesells-chaftsvertrag für eine Große Transformation. Zusammenfas-sung für Entscheidungsträger. WBGU, Berlin

World Business Council for Sus-tainable Development – WBCSD (2010): Vision 2050. Exploring the Role of Business through Vision 2050

Mobility

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) (2006): Infrastructure to 2030 – Telecom, Land Transport, Water and Electricity. OECD Publishing, Paris.

Allgemeiner Deutscher Auto-mobil-Club e. V. (ADAC) (2011): Verkehr von morgen. Szenarien und Visionen: Multimobil – auch ohne eigenes Auto: Wie geht das? Auto der Zukunft: Wie sieht es aus? Information und Kommuni-kation: Was ist möglich?

Verbraucherzentrale Bundesver-band e. V. (Hrsg.) (2012): Mobilität der Zukunft aus Verbraucher-sicht. Nachhaltig, vernetzt und bezahlbar.

Institut für Zukunftsforschung und Wissensmanagement (IFK)/Automotive Institute for Management (AIM) (2012): Das Zukunftsbarometer zur Mobilität der Zukunft.

Safety

Dyer, Gwynne (2010): Climate Wars. The fight for survival as the world overheats. Oneworld Publications, Oxford/England

IPCC – International Panel on Cli-mate Change (2011): IPCC Report. New York City

TAB – Büro für Technikfolgen-Abschätzung beim Deutschen Bundestag (2010): Gefährdung und Verletzbarkeit moderner Gesellschaften – am Beispiel eines großräumigen Ausfalls der Stromversorgung (Arbeitsbericht Nr. 141). Berlin

Scientific Futures Studies

Hölscher, Lucian (1999): Die En-tdeckung der Zukunft. Fischer Taschenbuch-Verlag, Frankfurt am Main

Kreibich, Rolf (2008): Zukunfts-forschung für die gesellschaftliche Praxis. IZT-WerkstattBericht Nr. 29/2008. Berlin

Popp, Reinhold/Schüll, Elmar (Hrsg.) (2009): Zukunftsforschung und Zukunftsgestaltung. Beiträge aus Wissenschaft und Praxis. Springer-Verlag, Berlin und Heidel-berg

Rust, Holger (2008): Zukunftsil-lusionen. Kritik der Trendforschung. VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften, Wiesbaden

Megatrends

Naisbitt, John (1984): Megatrends: Ten new directions transforming our lives. Warner Books, New York

Popp, Reinhold (Hrsg.) (2012): Zukunft & Wissenschaft. Zukunfts-forschung auf dem Prüfstand. Springer-Verlag, Berlin und Heidel-berg

Scenarios

European Foresight Monitoring Network (EFMN)

Kosow, Hannah; Gaßner, Robert (2008): Methods of Future and Scenario Analysis. Overview, As-sessment, and Selection Criteria. Studies no 39. Deutsches Institut für Entwicklung-spolitik, Bonn

Delphi Method

Cuhls, Kerstin (1998): Tech-nikvorausschau in Japan. Ein Rückblick auf 30 Jahre Delphi-Expertenbefragungen. Physica Verlag, Heidelberg (Dis-sertation)

Wildcards

Petersen, John L.; Steinmüller, Karlheinz (2009): Wild Cards. The Millennium Project (Hrsg.): Futures Research Methodology Ver-sion 3.0, Washington, CD-ROM.

Steinmüller, Karlheinz (2012): Wild Cards, Schwache Signale und Web-Seismografen. Vom Umgang der Zukunftsforschung mit dem Unvorhersagbaren. Focus-Jahrbuch 2012.

88

Appendix

Participants in the futures study

Attendees of the GCB-IZT Scenario Workshop, 9 April 2013, InterContinental Hotel Frankfurt/Main

1. Thomas Berghausen | meta-fusion, General Manager

2. Claudia Brückner | NewThinking

3. Birgit Gebhardt | Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Associated Researcher

4. Marcus Gloria | Cooltour Bochum, Owner / General Manager

5. Dr. Helga Jonuschat | Innovation Centre for Mobilty and Social Change (InnoZ) GmbH

6. Alexander Kramer | Deutsche Werbewelt

7. Matthias Kuom | DLR – German Aerospace Center (DLR), Research Coordinator

8. Olaf Pfeifer | Architect

9. Professor Dr. Günter Pfeifer | TU Darmstadt

10. Professor Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg | RWTH Aachen

11. Jürgen Schultheis | House of Logistics and Mobility, Senior Manager PR & Communication

12. Kay Constanze Strobl | Deloitte & Touche GmbH, Manager

13. Professor Dr. Ulrich Wünsch | hdpk School of Popular Arts, Berlin

14 . Colleagues from IZT Representatives of the Study Partners Colleagues from GCB

Participants in the expert interviews

1. Zahar Barth-Manzoori | German Acadamic Exchange Service (DAAD), Head of the Department for Events and Visitors Programmes

2. Alexandra Biebel | Alcatel-Lucent Enterprise, , Marketing / Advertisement / PR, Workgroup Leader Trade Fairs & Events BITKOM

3. Klaus Brähmig | German Bundestag, Chairman of the Committee for Tourism

4. Guido Brombach | German Trade Union Confederation (DGB), Technologies of the Future

5. Welf Ebeling | GBTA – Global Business Travel Association, Regional Director for Asia-Pacific, Bangkok, Thailand

6. Christian Helfrich | David Chipperfield Architects

7. Jeannie Lim | Singapore Tourism Board, Executive Director Conventions & Meetings, Convention Centers

8. Christian Luft | Drees + Sommer | International Trainer of Auditors

9. Heike Mahmoud | visitBerlin Berlin Convention Office, Director Conventions

10. Kristin K. Mirabal | The Optical Society, Washington, DC | USA CMP, Director, Global Programs

11. Dr. Peter Neven | Association of the German Trade Fair Industry (AUMA), General Manager

12. Professor Dr. Reinhold Popp | University of Applied Science, Centre for Futures Studies Salzburg

13. Dr. Ulrike Regele | The Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry (Deutscher Industrie- und Handelskammertag, DIHK e .V .) Head of the Department for Trade and Tourism

14. Prof. Dr. Ulrich Reinhard | Foundation for Future Studies, Hamburg, Scientific Director

15. Stefan Rief | Fraunhofer IAO, Head of Competence Center Workspace Innovation

16. Astrid Messmer-Rodriguez | Deutsche Lufthansa AG, Group Strategy

17. Andreas Schele | Drees & Sommer AG, Senior Project Partner

18. Dr. Jo Sollich | Sollich Architekten, Berlin

19. Kay Constanze Strobl | Deloitte & Touche GmbH, Manager

20. Dr. Stefan Walter | House of Logistics and Mobility, General Manager

21. Dr. Marion Weber | Federal Ministery of Economic Affairs and Energy, Head of the Department for Tourism Politics

22. Martin Zeumer | ee concept gmbh, Proxy Holder

89

Appendix

Participants in the Delphi survey

1. Corbin Ball | Corbin Ball Associates

2. Thomas Berghausen | Metafusion, General Manager

3. Claudia Brückner | NewThinking

4. Klara von Carlsburg | Foundation for Future Studies

5. Dr. Michael Geisser | Ubivent General Manager

6. Professor Dr. Sabina Jeschke | RWTH Aachen

7. Dr. Helga Jonuschat | Innovation Centre for Mobilty and Social Change, Dr . phil ./Dipl .-Ing . Architecture / Urban Planning

8. Matthias Kuom | German Aerospace Center (DLR), Research Coordinator

9. Kwa Chin Lum | Centre for Strategic Studies, Deputy Director, Strategic Policy Office/Head

10. Johannes Mahn | Z_punkt GmbH, Foresight Consultant

11. Kristin K. Mirabal | The Optical Society, Washington, DC | USA CMP, Director, Global Programs

12. Heike Niemeier | Project Management Berlin

13. Professor Dr. Günter Pfeifer | TU Darmstadt

14. Olaf Pfeifer | Architect

15. Dennis Presche | Deutsche Werbewelt, Head of Media Technology

16. Dr. Asarnusch Rashid | FZI Research Center for Information Technology, Karlsruhe, Head of Department

17. Stefan Rief | Fraunhofer IAO, Head of Competence Center Workspace Innovation Fraunhofer IAO

18. Mandy Scheermesser | Zurich University of Applied Sciences, Research Associate at the Department of Health, Institute for Physiotherapy

19. Professor Dr.-Ing. Daniel Schilberg | RWTH Aachen

20. Dr. Hendrik Send | Alexander von Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society (HIIG), Project Manager: Web-based Innovation

21. Dr. Jo Sollich | Sollich Architekten

22. Karen Sternsdorff | German Sustainable Building Council (DGNB – Deutsche Gesellschaft für Nachhaltiges Bauen e .V .), Team Leader, System Development

23. Jan Zak | ikl consulting engineers Prof . Dr .-Ing . Kunibert Lennerts GmbH, Head of the Department for Sustainability and Certification

24. Erik Zürn | Research Centre (Forschungszentrum) Jülich

90

Age Diversity ManagementAge Diversity Management can be taken

as an internationally used global term

referring to policies, strategies and

instruments for the implementation of

age diversity. Age diversity includes both

the older generation and the offspring as

well as working together in a company.

The basic idea is to bundle the various

qualities, knowledge, and experiences of

different generations and to employ it to

the benefit of the work results.

ActuatorsActuators transduce electric current or

voltage into another energy form such as

sound, pressure, temperature, motion,

torque, light, etc. The various methods

to transduce electric into non-electric

energy applied within actuators — electro-

magnetic, inductive, piezoelectric, opto-

electric, magnetostrictive, electrostatic,

electrochemical — decide on the amount

of the transducible energy through their

degree of efficiency.

Ageing of the populationThe ageing of the population is a charac-

teristic of demographic change. On the

one hand, the absolute age of the popula-

tion is rising due to mankind’s constantly

increased life expectancy. On the other

hand, the age structure is changing —

worldwide, in various ways and depending

on the birth rates. Globally, the number of

persons older than 60 years is expected

to almost treble from 739 million to 2,000

million by 2050. In the industrialised

countries, the portion of over-60-year-

olds is expected to grow faster than ever

before. In the year 2050, about one third

of the population is expected to be older

than 60 years in these countries.

BarCampsA BarCamp is an open meeting (non-con-

vention) where agenda and contents are

developed by the participants themselves

during the course of the meeting. The

course of BarCamps resembles the open

space method, but is of a more flexible

Appendix

Glossary

organisation. A BarCamp consists of

lectures, speeches and sessions coordi-

nated by the participants themselves on

whiteboards, meta-plans or pin boards at

the beginning of the meeting.

Cloud ComputingCloud Computing means dynamical on-

demand provision, use and payment of

IT services via a network. Supply and use

of these services are exclusively car-

ried out via defined technical interfaces

and protocols. The scope of the services

offered in the context of Cloud Comput-

ing comprises the complete range of

information technology, including, among

other things, infrastructure (computing

power, storage, for example), platforms,

and software.

Corporate CitizenshipCorporate Citizenship means the active

citizenship within and by companies

pursuing a medium- and long-term entre-

preneurial strategy based on responsible

acting and involving active work as "good

citizens" for the local civil society or eco-

logical or cultural matters, for example,

beyond their actual business. The English

terminology indicates that it originally

was the adoption of a management idea

as part of a public affairs strategy from

the U.S.

Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR)Corporate Social Responsibility gains

in importance as part of the strategic

management of companies. Mainly for

global value chains, there is a growing

requirement to implement environmental

and social standards in order to secure

long-term supply of sustainably produced

products.

Digital NativesThe term "digital natives" traces back to

Marc Prensky."Digital natives" are persons

who have grown up with the Internet and

mobile phones and have no knowledge of

the analogous era, that is the generation

born after 1990. The contrary of a "digital

native" is a "digital immigrant", that is a

person who has become acquainted with

the new technologies only after growing

up and is coping with them on a step-by-

step basis only.

Eco-City According to a simple definition, eco-cities

are "ecologically healthy cities". More

detailed, this term means communities

and cities that have committed to the

principles of ecological and sustainable

management and show the smallest

possible ecological footprint. Examples

for these ecological principles include the

ability to generate electric energy from

renewable energies, heat generation with-

out combustion processes, energy-sparing

construction (passive house, low-energy

house), and emission-free traffic within

towns as well as facilities and workplaces

that are as low in emissions as possible.

Water production from rain water, water

recycling and separate water circuits for

drinking and service water have to be

mentioned as well. Furthermore, waste

avoidance and recycling have to be prac-

tised.

Gadgets Gadgets are small technical appliances

or programmes having a rather low user

value (also called "gimmicks" or "gizmos").

Examples for gadgets are solar-powered

pencil sharpeners, coffee cup heaters with

USB connection or the constant display

of the weather in a small window on the

workstation PC.

Greenwashing Greenwashing is a critical term for PR

methods aiming at giving a company an

eco-friendly and responsible image in

public without there being a sufficient

basis. The term hints at the colour "green"

as a symbol of nature and environmental

protection and "washing" in the sense

of money laundering or whitewashing.

The term originally referred to an alleged

eco-friendliness, but has also been used

91

for alleged corporate responsibility in the

meantime.

Head-up Display HUD stands for head-up display. It means

a display area in the line of sight (sight

display). The HUD is a display system

where information relevant to the user

(pilots, car drivers, etc.) is projected into

the main line of sight so that the head

position and viewing direction have to

be altered only barely to perceive the

information.

Holodeck The term "holodeck" from the science-

fiction series "Star Treck" designates

a facility where the visitors can enter

a computer-generated world. In this

space, virtual worlds hardly distinguish-

able from reality are created by means

of holographic methods. Unlike already

existing systems of virtual reality, the

projected environments, objects and

persons can be perceived not only visu-

ally and acoustically, but also in a haptic

manner, so that the user experiences a

feeling of total immersion.

Intermodality The term "intermodality" originates from

the area of goods transport and has been

used in the U.S.A. for the novel handling

of goods in standardised containers be-

tween railway, lorries and ships since the

1960ies. Basically, intermodality is always

given, when more than one means of

transportation is used to transport goods

and people, and when a change between

these means of transportation occurs.

Internet of Things and Service This trend means the interconnection of

objects by means of the Internet in order

to allow these objects to autonomously

communicate via the Internet and to fulfil

various tasks for their owner. The area of

application stretches from general supply

of information via automatic ordering up

to warning and emergency functions. In

the future, more and more objects will

Appendix

"use" the Internet to interconnect and

to exchange information. Furthermore,

innovative, combined services offered

via the Internet will be created. The

Internet of Things and Services is one

of the key issues for the future and an

effective global trend.

ICT technologies Information and communication tech-

nology (ICT technology) can be used for

three kinds of applications: 1. trans-

mission of information through space

(communication), 2. transmission of

information through time (storage), and

3. regulated transformation of informa-

tion within space and time using an

algorithm.

Megacities Worldwide, more and more megacities

have been emerging (cities with more

than ten million inhabitants). In 2015,

their number is expected to grow to 26,

22 of which are located in emerging and

developing countries. In addition, there

is a great number of other large cities

and cities with over one million inhabit-

ants. By 2030, cities are expected to

cover an area which is almost three

times as large as their area today. By

2025, the number of buildings in the

cities is expected to almost double. In

all agglomerations of the world, serious

problems arise from housing shortage,

environmental stress, difficulties in

drinking water supply and waste dis-

posal as well as from the tremendously

high traffic density and the resulting air

pollution.

Man-Machine Interface This term means a juncture between

two mutually interconnected systems.

To allow functioning communica-

tion between the two systems, the

interface has to be standardised as a

rule. Two types have been adopted:

The man-machine interface and the

machine-machine interface. The former

serves the dialogue between user and

machine: in general, a software is inter-

posed between man and machine, making

understanding possible. It includes con-

trol elements such as keyboard, mouse,

screen, etc., as well as software elements

such as menus, dialogue boxes and

windows. The machine-machine interface

(also called "port") is an interface between

two devices or two software objects, such

as two application programmes, but also

between software and hardware.

Multibiometric systems Multibiometric systems consist of several

biometric subsystems for various modali-

ties (fingerprint and iris, for example) that

complement one another. The mutual

influencing of the systems refers to rec-

ognition exactness, security and variabil-

ity. In literature, such a system based on

the features of face, fingerprint and hand

geometry has been described in A.K. Jain,

A. Ross: Multibiometric Systems, Com-

munications of the ACM; January 2004,

Vol. 47, No. 1.

OLED The Organic Light-Emitting Diode (OLED)

is a further development of the light-

emitting diode (LED) for display technol-

ogy. In contrast to LEDs, the coloured

self-luminous OLEDs consist of organic

semiconductors emitting light within an

electric field. OLEDs are characterised by

high light density and good contrast, they

are self-luminous, flexible, extremely flat

and have a high resolution. The innova-

tion in this technology is that this module

no longer primarily is aimed at illumina-

tion but is ideally suited to manufacture

screens. These screens are extremely flat

and can be operated in any size at any

place.

Open-space conventions Open space is a method of large group

moderation for structuring conventions.

It is suitable for groups from about 50

to 2,000 participants. The openness in

terms of contents and form is typical:

with open space, only a general topic is

92

specified to the participants. Neither

an agenda nor lecturers or modera-

tors are pre-determined. The individual

subtopics are autonomously named by

the participants in the initial phase. The

workgroups assigned to the subtopics

have to meet requirements in terms of

time only — and not of contents. The

participants are free in attending the

sessions.

Peak EverythingTerm derived from "peak oil". The term

"peak oil" or "Hubbert peak" means a

point in time when a global oil produc-

tion maximum has been reached, the

production decreasing on a global scale

afterwards.

"Peak everything" means the fact that,

at some point in time, not only the oil

reserves but almost all natural resourc-

es cannot be produced any more in the

quantities that would be required by our

modern society.

QR code

QR codes are 2D codes that can be

scanned and read by mobile phones,

Smartphones and tablets, and where

web addresses, phone numbers, SMS

and free text can be included. They

connect the physical and virtual worlds

and play, among other things, a part in

publications and marketing.

Resource Efficiency Mainly due to partly enormous price

increases and volatilities in the raw ma-

terial markets, resource efficiency has

become more and more crucial for the

world’s economy during the last years.

This is also reflected in the intensive de-

bate on effective politics regarding the

use of resources (Federal Government,

Federal Environment Ministry, Federal

Ministry of Economics, European Com-

mission, etc.). Challenges for the securi-

ty of supply add to it as well and let new

questions arise in terms of competitive

strategy. Thus it is expected that a criti-

Appendix

cal shortage of rare metals could result

from the dynamic growth of important

future technologies (such as electromo-

bility, renewable energies). The follow-

ing are key strategies to respond to the

challenges: Procure and use resources

in an intelligent and efficient way, sub-

stitute scarce raw materials and recover

recyclable fractions.

RFID RFID means methods to automatically

identify objects by radio-frequency. RFID

systems can adequately be used in all

applications where automatic label-

ling, identification, registering, storing,

monitoring or transporting is required.

RFID systems are offered in various

versions. Despite of the large range

of RFID solutions, any RFID system is

defined by the following three charac-

teristics: 1. electronic identification (the

system allows a unique identification of

objects by means of electronically stored

data), 2. contactless data transfer (to

identify the object, the data can be read

wirelessly via a radio-frequency chan-

nel), and 3. transmission on demand

(a labelled object will send its data only

if a designated reader requests this

procedure).

Sensor A sensor is an optical / mechani-

cal / chemical / electronic component

that transforms a measured physical

quantity or a chemical effect into an

analogous electrical signal. Physical

quantities can be, among other things,

pressure, weight, acceleration, light in-

tensity, temperature, radiation, sound,

magnetic flow, rotational speed. The

sensor records these physical quantities

and converts them using inductive, ca-

pacitive, piezoelectric, magnetic, field-

intensity-controlled, radioactive, load

or photo-electric converters into electric

voltage that is put into a consistent

relation to the input quantity. A sensor

thus scales the signals to make them

readable for further processing.

Sick-Building-Syndrom (SBS) The term is used to describe a situation

where people living in a building show

symptoms of diseases that seem to

be connected to a too long stay in the

building, while no specific causes can

be identified, however. Moreover, the

WHO distinguishes two types of SBS:

"temporary SBS" describes complaints

that occur shortly after moving into the

building, and "persistent SBS" describes

complaints that persist after moving in.

Causes could be contaminants within

the indoor air. These include, for exam-

ple, poisonous evaporations, so-called

volatile organic compounds, released by

certain sources such as newly installed

materials like floor and carpet adhe-

sives, toxic substances from furniture

(varnishes, paints and coatings) as well

as minerals from insulating materials,

pest control substances and cleaners.

Urbanisation Urbanisation means the spreading of

urban lifestyles into rural areas. This

process has been observed for centu-

ries already, but it has reached a so far

unprecedented extent particularly in

the emerging and developing countries

during the last decades. That trend will

continue. For the year 2030, it is ex-

pected that over two third of the world

population will live in cities.

Virtual collaboration The importance of successful virtual

collaboration continues to rise in the

course of globalisation and the increase

of value-adding partners. Growing

mobility of employees and partners is

a reason for many companies to use

cloud-based technologies.

Change in the raw materials base Crude oil is becoming scarce. The OPEC

(Organization of Petroleum Exporting

Countries) will no longer be able to sat-

isfy the demand in a few years’ time.

Coal and unconventional oil deposits

(such as tarry sands, "shale gas") offer

93

Appendix

fossil fuels for medium-term consump-

tion. In the long term, however, this will

not change much regarding the global

shortage. Renewable resources are gain-

ing in importance.

94

ImprintThis study was created by:

IZT - Institute for Futures Studies

and Technology Assessment

Schopenhauerstr. 26

14129 Berlin

Germany

Main Editors:

Dr. Edgar Göll

Michaela Evers-Wölk

Initiator / Publisher:

GCB German Convention Bureau

Kaiserstraße 53

60329 Frankfurt/Main

Germany

www.germany-meetings.com

Editorial Work, Layout and Production:

blaueQuelle Kommunikationsgesellschaft mbH

Wilhelm-Weber-Str. 39

37073 Göttingen

Germany

Picture Reference:

fotolia.com: p. 25, p. 29, p. 51, p. 55, p. 56, p. 62,

p. 68

istockphoto.com: p. 78–79

Print: Grafische Werkstatt 1980, Kassel

Germany

© 2014 GCB

This work including all its parts is

protected by copyright laws. Any use

of the texts and pictures outside the

narrow limits of the copyright law

is prohibited without prior approval

by the publisher or the licensor of

the pictures. This applies to copies,

translations, microfiching, and the

storage and processing in electronic

systems. Prognoses and any forward-

looking statements are subject to

significant uncertainties. The GCB

assumes no responsibility for the

correctness and completeness of the

information concerning the future.

Nominal charge: 449 euro

95

96

GCB German Convention Bureau

Kaiserstraße 53

60329 Frankfurt/Main

Germany

Phone: +49 69 2429-300

Fax: +49 69 2429-3026

E-mail: [email protected]

Internet: www.germany-meetings.com

twitter.com/GCB_Deutschland

twitter.com/GermanyMeetings

facebook.com/GermanConventionBureau

Date post:	14-Jun-2020
Category:	Documents
Upload:	others
View:	3 times
Download:	0 times

Futures study - IZT€¦ · Axel Biermann, Ruhr Tourismus GmbH Stefan Lohnert, SevenCenters of...

Documents