Futuring with Jay GaryFuturing with Jay Gary
The Future of the Media Environmenti h D J G• with Dr. Jay Gary
Sept 22, 2011
Download slides: jaygary.com/media.pdf
Twitter: drjaygary
Contact: [email protected]
MSF – I was brought inMaster of Arts in Strategic Foresight
Looking ForwardLooking ForwardA prudent person foresees
the danger ahead and t k titakes precautions;
the simpleton goes blindly on and suffers the
consequences.co seque cesProverbs 22:3 (NLT)
The church stands in danger that the time will come when it can
pick up a microphone and address the entire world only toaddress the entire world—only to
find out it has nothing to say.
Charles Templeton
Driving an Enterprise - clearDriving an Enterprise clear
Driving an Enterprise - clearDriving an Enterprise clear
Leading changeLeading change Task Relations
Change
Leadership?Leadership?
Focused on the Future?Focused on the Future?Leadership Theory Past Present FutureSources of Power (French & Raven 1959) xSources of Power (French & Raven, 1959) xVertical Dyad Linkage (Dansereau, et.1975) xOSU Consideration & Initiation (Stogdill, 1974) xMichigan Participative Leadership (Likert, 1967) xPath-Goal Theory (House, 1971) xSituational Leadership (Hersey &Blanchard,1969) xLeadership Substitutes (Kerr & Jermier) xLPC Contingency Model (Fiedler, 1967) x xCharismatic Leadership (House 1977) x xCharismatic Leadership (House, 1977) x xStrategic Leadership (Hambrick, 1984) x xTransformational Leadership (Burns, ‘78; Bass ‘85 x x x
Thoms, P., & Greenberger, D. B. (1995, September). The relationship between leadership and time orientation. Journal of Management Inquiry, 4(3), 272-292. [added strategic leadership column]
Time Span of DiscretionTime Span of Discretion
Am I able to see the appropriate distance into the future given my role?
Adapted from Elliott Jaques’ concepts http://www.3creek.com/resources/newsletters/Masterful_Mentoring_Jun08.pdf
Am I able to see the appropriate distance into the future given my role?
Horizon 3Horizon 3
Traditional Planning Future PlanningTraditional Planning Future PlanningShort‐Term Plans:
Looking 1 to 3 years into the future.Long‐Term Vision
Looking 5, 10, or even 15 years into the future.Incremental Change:
H d i b i lParadigm Shift:
Wh h h l i i h h iHow do we improve our business plan to complete most effectively?
What are the changes looming in the horizon that require we transform how we do things
next?
Recasting: Backcasting:Planning from the present to the future in light
of past experiences.Planning from the future back to the present.
Simple & Certain:Reduce choices by simplifying & narrowing
Multiple & Uncertain:Expand choices by demonstrating multiple y p y g g
future predictions.p y g ppossibilities & potential outcomes.
Trends that are Extensions of the Past:Present plans informed by past
trends & patterns.
Driving Forces that will Alter the Face of the Future:
Future possibilities based ontrends & patterns. Future possibilities based on emerging driving forces.
Navigation:How do we employ resources to best effect?
Adaptation:What vision of the future is most worthy of creating?most worthy of creating?
Strategic ForesightStrategic Foresight
Extinction ChartExtinction Chart
Watson’ TimelineWatson Timeline
http://www.nowandnext.com
Three Futures
1. Expected
2. AlternativePresent
3 Surprise3. Surprise
Three Futures
The Expected Future» Where things are likely heading?» The future if everything continues as it has» The result of conditions and trends (momentum)» Forecasts from past push, the baseline
The Alternative FutureThe Alternative Future» What might happen instead, alternative outcome» A set of plausible outcomes if something
less likely happens» The result of events and issues (contingencies)» Scenarios from uncertainties
The Surprise FutureWh t t d h» What unexpected happens
» A one-off, out of the blue, event» The result of innovations or outliers» Wildcards from disruptions
Source: Adapted from Peter Bishop, ISD Katy, August 15 2008
Foresight Acting6Foresight Practices
6
Planning5
Scanning2 Visioning4Scanning2 g4
Framing1Forecasting31
Source: Hines & Bishop, Thinking About the Future, 2007
How Existing Methods FitHow Existing Methods Fit
Future of VideoFuture of Video
http://prezi.com/nk6yv4atvm1u/http://www.iftf.org/FutureofVideoMap
Personal CircuitsPersonal Circuits
Personal Circuits
Sixth SenseSixth SenseSixth Sense is a mini-projector coupled with p j pa camera and a smart phone—which acts as the computer and your connection to theconnection to the Cloud, all the information stored on the web. Sixth Sense can also obey hand gestures, like in the movie Minority Report
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUdDhWfpqxg
GBN 2005 StudyThe Future Media Environment: The Future Media Environment: H ill i d t i t t?How will companies and customers interact?
StanStan JoostenJoosten 20052005Stan Stan JoostenJoosten 20052005
Scenario ExerciseScenario ExerciseScenario Exercise
1 H ill M di d1. How will Media and Communications evolve in
the next 5-7 years ?y
2. How will this affect our Connections withour Connections with
Consumers ?
Force Field AnalysisConventional Next
CurrentState
Direction B
Direction A
??+10 +5 +1 ‐10‐5‐1
Conventional Plus
Next Generation
D i i FR t i i F Driving ForcesRestraining Forces
Force Field AnalysisConventional Next
CurrentState
Direction B
Direction A
??+10 +5 +1 ‐10‐5‐1
Conventional Plus
Next Generation
Landline Telephones
Network TV
Smart Phones – 4G – Cloud
Podcasting, iTunes, iPad
DVD Rental, Redbox, TiVo
Cable TV
Podcasting, iTunes, iPad
Netflix, Hulu, Amazon
P2P, Facebook, YouTube
Laptop Computers
Newspapers
, aceboo , ou ube
Internet TV, Boxee
MMOLG-Multiplayer Online Gaming
D i i FR t i i F
Media Brand Loyalty
p y g
Capture, Pico, Wearable, 6th Sense
Driving ForcesRestraining Forces
Social web
http://www.destinationcrm.com/Articles/CRM-News/Daily-News/Social-Media-The-Five-Year-Forecast-53635.aspx
Scenario Framework
All the World’s a ProducerAll the World’s a Producer“Feed World”“Feed World” Active 4Active2
NextConventional Post
ure
Med
ia
Next Generation
Conventional‘Plus’
Dominant Media Delivery Platformon
sum
er
Tow
ards
C
o T
1Anything, Anytime, Anything, Anytime,
AnywhereAnywhereA Brighter TodayA Brighter Today Passive
13
Consumers enjoy much greater control overmuch greater control over what media they consume,
when and how, but essentially remain y
pleased with the offerings of today’s major players
1
“A Brighter Today”1
‐ CONVENTIONAL ‘PLUS’ media distribution‐ PASSIVE consumer posture
“Feed World”CONVENTIONAL ‘PLUS’ di di t ib ti
2
‐ CONVENTIONAL ‘PLUS’ media distribution‐ ACTIVE consumer posture
Consumers becomeConsumers become “content curators”,
designing and shaping th itheir own
entertainment “playlists”as never before
Scenario Framework
All the World’s a ProducerAll the World’s a Producer“Feed World”“Feed World” Active 4Active2
NextConventional Post
ure
Med
ia
Next Generation
Conventional‘Plus’
Dominant Media Delivery Platformon
sum
er
Tow
ards
C
o T
1Anything, Anytime, Anything, Anytime,
AnywhereAnywhereA Brighter TodayA Brighter Today Passive
13
Consumers enjoy unprecedentedunprecedented
“on demand” access to the “deep archives”
f di d t t i tof media and entertainment produced
in the past and presentp p
“Anything, Anytime, Anywhere”3
‐ NEXT GENERATION media distribution‐ PASSIVE consumer posture
“All The World is a Producer”NEXT GENERATION di di t ib ti
4
‐ NEXT GENERATION media distribution‐ ACTIVE consumer posture
Consumers useConsumers use powerful new tools to
produce and distribute entertainment to each other
Scenario Framework
All the World’s a ProducerAll the World’s a Producer“Feed World”“Feed World” Active 4Active2
NextConventional Post
ure
Med
ia
Next Generation
Conventional‘Plus’
Dominant Media Delivery Platformon
sum
er
Tow
ards
C
o T
1Anything, Anytime, Anything, Anytime,
AnywhereAnywhereA Brighter TodayA Brighter Today Passive
13
Scenario/Strategy Matrix
Christian Broadcasting
Scenarios
BroadcastingNetwork
Strateg
NE: All the
World is a Producer
SE: Anything, Anytime, Anywhere
NW: Feed World
SW: Brighter
Tomorrow
StrategyPreach the
Gospel
I i liInternationalize Funding
Mobilizing TalentTalent
Virtual Infrastructure
HumanitarianHumanitarian Outreach
Futuring with Jay Gary
The Future of the Media Environmenti h D J G• with Dr. Jay Gary
Sept 22, 2011
Download slides: jaygary.com/media.pdf
Twitter: drjaygary
Contact: [email protected]
