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05.01.2012 Milica Travica 201-1672 201-3617 Srñan Maletić 201-1263 201-3621 Olivera Glisić 201-1314 FX sales Unit Custody Unit Darko Karanović 201-3624 Vitomir Marić 201-1315 Marija Prebanić 201-3626 Biljana Radosavljević 201-3622 Dragan Ignja 201-3627 201-3625 Currency Value Previous Change Currency Value Previous Change EURRSD 105.8694 105.7880 0.08% EURUSD 1.2954 1.3049 -0.73% USDRSD 81.9359 81.1693 0.94% EURCHF 1.2186 1.2169 0.14% CHFRSD 86.9064 86.8396 0.08% EURGBP 0.8287 0.8339 -0.62% GBPRSD 127.7999 126.8898 0.72% GBPUSD 1.5631 1.5648 -0.11% Source: NBS USDJPY 76.68 76.69 -0.01% Source: Bloomberg EUR and USD indicators for current day: Time Country Period Previous Forecast !! 10:00 Euro zone October -6.4% 2.5% Source: Bloomberg Interbank market - Serbia Value Previous Change bps Source: NBS BEONIA 8.42 8.46 -4.00 BELIBOR1M 10.75 10.52 23.00 T Bills - Serbia BELIBOR3M 11.04 11.04 0.00 Maturity Value Previous Source: Reuters 3 month 11.60% 11.90% 6 month 10.85% 10.90% Major Key rates 12 month 13.00% 13.00% Value 18 month 13.50% 13.30% ECB 1.00% 24 month 13.25% 13.19% FED 0.25% 36 month 14.89% 14.89% SNB 0.00% Source: Bloomberg Source: Treasury - Ministry of Finance Interbank - World Value Previous Change bps EONIA 0.395% 0.396% -0.001 FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR1M 0.970% 0.988% -0.018 Price Yield EURIBOR3M 1.319% 1.333% -0.014 EURIBOR6M 1.586% 1.598% -0.012 A2012 97,23 7,17% LIBOR1M (USD) 0.29530% 0.29530% 0.00000 A2013 91,01 6,93% LIBOR3M (USD) 0.58250% 0.58250% 0.00000 A2014 90,00 4,48% LIBOR1M (CHF) 0.03167% 0.03167% 0.00000 A2015 82,60 5,77% LIBOR3M (CHF) 0.05167% 0.05167% 0.00000 A2016 79,48 5,35% Source: Bloomberg Source: Belex Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day Ljiljana Zipovski Brokerage Unit Financial market analysis Unit DAILY REPORT Domestic market MM and fixed income International market Key rate NBS Event 9.75 Snežana Spasojević Industrial new orders MoM FX rate Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 45.8 mil EUR at average rate 105, 8821. 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11 EURUSD 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102 105 108 01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11 EURRSD 1
Transcript

05.01.2012

Milica Travica 201-1672 201-3617

Srñan Maletić 201-1263 201-3621Olivera Glisić 201-1314

FX sales UnitCustody Unit Darko Karanović 201-3624

Vitomir Marić 201-1315 Marija Prebanić 201-3626Biljana Radosavljević 201-3622 Dragan Ignja 201-3627

201-3625

Currency Value Previous Change Currency Value Previous ChangeEURRSD 105.8694 105.7880 0.08% EURUSD 1.2954 1.3049 -0.73%USDRSD 81.9359 81.1693 0.94% EURCHF 1.2186 1.2169 0.14%CHFRSD 86.9064 86.8396 0.08% EURGBP 0.8287 0.8339 -0.62%GBPRSD 127.7999 126.8898 0.72% GBPUSD 1.5631 1.5648 -0.11%Source: NBS USDJPY 76.68 76.69 -0.01%

Source: Bloomberg

EUR and USD indicators for current day:

Time Country Period Previous Forecast!! 10:00 Euro zone October -6.4% 2.5%

Source: Bloomberg

Interbank market - Serbia

Value Previous Change bpsSource: NBS BEONIA 8.42 8.46 -4.00

BELIBOR1M 10.75 10.52 23.00T Bills - Serbia BELIBOR3M 11.04 11.04 0.00Maturity Value Previous Source: Reuters

3 month 11.60% 11.90%6 month 10.85% 10.90% Major Key rates

12 month 13.00% 13.00% Value

18 month 13.50% 13.30% ECB 1.00%24 month 13.25% 13.19% FED 0.25%36 month 14.89% 14.89% SNB 0.00%

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Treasury - Ministry of Finance Interbank - World

Value Previous Change bpsEONIA 0.395% 0.396% -0.001

FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR1M 0.970% 0.988% -0.018Price Yield EURIBOR3M 1.319% 1.333% -0.014

EURIBOR6M 1.586% 1.598% -0.012A2012 97,23 7,17% LIBOR1M (USD) 0.29530% 0.29530% 0.00000A2013 91,01 6,93% LIBOR3M (USD) 0.58250% 0.58250% 0.00000A2014 90,00 4,48% LIBOR1M (CHF) 0.03167% 0.03167% 0.00000A2015 82,60 5,77% LIBOR3M (CHF) 0.05167% 0.05167% 0.00000A2016 79,48 5,35% Source: Bloomberg

Source: Belex

Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day

Ljiljana Zipovski

Brokerage UnitFinancial market analysis Unit

DAILY REPORT

Domestic market

MM and fixed income

International market

Key rate NBS

Event

9.75

Snežana Spasojević

Industrial new orders MoM

FX rate

Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 45.8 mil EUR at average rate 105, 8821.

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11

EURUSD

75

78

81

84

87

90

93

96

99

102

105

108

01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11

EURRSD

1

Source: Belex

Value

977.19

YTD

965.77

Previous Change

-24.59%

-24.71%

-1.56%

-1.17%

499.05Belex 15 491.26

Belex line

Ratios

Turnover30,811,031 Din.

141,832 €

-51.30%

294,445 €

Mulk Holdings has acquired a large 10 acre asset in Serbia and announced an investment of $20 million toward theestablishment of a new production facility in Europe.This strategic move is in line with the company's continued expansionprogram of establishing manufacturing plants close to demand markets.The facility, situated in the Nemanjina Street, BanatskiKarlovac, Serbia, 60km from Belgrade (capital of Serbia), will have a state-of-the art production facility with a 3,000 squaremeters office and showroom space and 10,000 square meters of production Area which will be built in several phases.The newfactory will have a capacity of 3 million m2 of fire rated metal composite panels and 10,000 tons of color coated coils.Shaji UlMulk, Chairman of Mulk Holdings International, said: "Our Investment in Europe started last year with the establishment ofAlubond Europe in Pancevo, Serbia in a leased facility.(source:bloomberg)

Equity market

SERBIA

-51.83%

15,004,092 Din.

The Serbian government said on Wednesday it plans to invest around 170 million euro ($221 million) in several constructionprojects this year. Serbia will launch the construction of 1,700 flats for low-income families in 12 cities, a project worth 30 millioneuro, the government said in a statement, quoting the minister of environment, mining and spatial planning Oliver Dulic.Out ofthe 18 billion dinars ($222 million/170 million euro) of state aid earmarked for the construction industry in 2011, only 8.0 billiondinars have been spent while the remainder will be disbursed for this year's projects. A large-scale conversion to residential useof the disused Stepa Stepanovic barracks in Belgrade, a project worth 40 million euro, will also be completed this year, thestatement said.(source: bloomberg)

Serbian PM Mirko Cvetković’s economic advisor Jurij Bajec told Tanjug there was a realistic chance Serbia would maintainmacroeconomic stability in 2012. He believes that macroeconomic stability will be maintained regardless of the influence of thecrisis coming from abroad, because the government has set aside around EUR 1.5bn in the budget for capital projects and EUR600mn for subsidies and has also signed a precautionary arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Bajecstressed it would be very good if Serbia got candidate status for EU membership this year, as this would draw foreign investors,noting the state needed to cut spending and carry out a reform of the public sector and the tax system. "These are definitely notall the necessary measures, because when you are a candidate for EU membership, then investors see a long-term perspectiveof where you are headed, and investments are long-term projects. An investor would be more likely to come with the candidacyas a sort of additional guarantee," he explained. (source: b92)

P / B P / E

Belex15 0,53 4,98

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Belex15

0

700

1400

2100

2800

3500

4200

4900

5600

Belex Line

-9.17%

-3.54%-2.85% -2.55% -2.25%

-1.75%

-0.29% -0.09%

0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%

-10.00%

-8.00%

-6.00%

-4.00%

-2.00%

0.00%

2.00%

AGBN SJPT AIKB ENHL IMLK TIGR KMBN MTBN UNBN MTLC VZAS TGAS ALFA PRBN

Daily change - members of Belex15

2

AERO 491 158,593 -1.38% -4.57% 0.75 7.53 10.75

ENHL 382 323,554 -2.55% 0.00% 0.35 5.60 6.62

NIIS 604 2,787,460 -0.16% -1.13% 2.09 5.88 42.34

SJPT 545 944,485 -3.54% 8.57% 0.77 8.62 7.81

TIGR 505 10,100 -1.75% 1.61% 0.26 #N/A N/A -1.76

Izvor: Bloomberg

ALFA 7,200 0 0.00% -2.70% 0.34 2.75 12.92

KMBN 1,695 769,530 -0.29% 2.73% 0.39 5.11 8.62

MTLC 1,600 360,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.47 3.53 14.01

Izvor: Bloomberg

AGBN 2,724 198,852 -9.17% -18.64% 0.11 n/a 6.77

AIKB 1,601 48,030 -2.85% -6.86% 0.33 2.24 14.26

BIPB 31 0 0.00% 0.00% 2.81 n/a -125.23

BMBI 20,000 0 0.00% 0.00% 2.27 13.77 16.91

CYBN 1,666 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.41 n/a -54.60

CCNB 10,450 0 0.00% 4.50% 0.35 14.98 2.33

DINNPB 985 0 0.00% -2.45% 0.89 3.45 17.70

DNOS 976 0 0.00% -11.35% 0.03 n/a 2.16

FITO 1,864 4,387,856 2.42% 2.42% 0.55 2.66 22.12

GLOS 290 0 0.00% 6.23% 0.13 n/a 2.21

IMLK 2,300 57,500 -2.25% 1.81% 2.13 18.06 11.79

INFM 2,290 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.39 105.60 0.40

JESV 4,855 0 0.00% -11.61% 0.83 2.96 28.72

JMBN 13,444 67,220 3.42% -3.20% 0.71 15.47 6.74

KMBNPB 950 0 0.00% -4.81% n/a n/a 8.62

LSTA 300 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.20 0.89 25.59

NPRD 1,021 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.10 0.31 39.62

PLTK 50 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 #N/A N/A -16.32

PRBN 320 6,080 0.31% -1.54% 0.34 n/a -6.61

PRGS 52 0 0.00% 15.56% 0.06 205.29 0.03

PTLK 127 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 232.45 0.06

PUUE 431 0 0.00% 0.23% 0.30 3.09 9.95

MTBN 1,149 14,937 -0.09% -10.93% 0.18 9.48 2.06

SIMP 230 0 0.00% 0.88% 0.04 #N/A N/A -7.95

TGAS 4,300 0 0.00% -0.05% 0.48 4.50 11.27

TLFN 550 0 0.00% -5.17% 0.25 10.62 1.86

UNBN 2,300 0 0.00% 6.88% 0.20 3.44 6.05

VLFR 300 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.22 n/a -58.54

VLFR 321 0 0.00% 1.90% 0.25 2.14 2.47

VINZ 6,200 62,000 -4.62% -8.82% 0.59 3.46 21.84

VITL 1,560 20,280 -11.81% -12.16% 0.33 2.79 12.67

VDAV 4,100 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.46 n/a 2.49

Source: Bloomberg

16,836,070,000 Din.

P/ETurnover in

RSD

Tigar

Čačanska banka

Telefonija

Razvojna banka Vojvodine

DIN prioritetne

A Listing

P/BVWeekly

change

Turnover in

RSD

B Listing

Daily

changePrice

Politika

Komercijalna banka PB

Privredna banka

Napred GP

Lasta

Univerzal banka

Progres

Putevi Užice

Simpo

Tehnogas

Dunav osiguranje

Agrobanka

Jubmes banka

Beogradska industrija piva

Jedinstvo Sevojno

Galenika Fitofarmacija

Informatika

Globos osiguranje

Bambi

AIK banka

Credy banka

867,822,300 Din.

3,616,703,000 Din.

1,258,646,000 Din.

Market Capitalization

5,365,440,000 Din.

98,488,480,000 Din.

Metalac

7,657,980,000 Din.

Market Capitalization

Voda Vrnjci

Veterinarski zavod Subotica

Velefarm

1,229,894,000 Din.

1,191,742,000 Din.

Vino Župa

P/BV

Napomene: (1) Promet=prosečna ponderisana cena x obim. (2) P/BV-price to book value je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i knjigovodstvene vrednosti. (3) P/E-price to earnings je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i zarade po akciji (EPS). (4) ROE-return on equity je racio koji predstavlja odnos neto dobiti i akcijskog kapitala. (5) Mcap-

tržišna kapitalizacija=tržišna cena akcije x broj akcija

20,864,740,000 Din.Imlek

Price

252,958,700 Din.

860,627,300 Din.

ROE

350,487,900 Din.

459,288,000 Din.

1,479,411,000 Din.

3,490,089,000 Din.

354,834,500 Din.

420,918,000 Din.

322,150,600 Din.

1,640,320,000 Din.

13,962,070,000 Din.

Market Capitalization

282,287,800 Din.

1,394,615,000 Din.

3,259,136,000 Din.

Company

280,423,000 Din.

329,844,800 Din.

4,457,629,000 Din.

318,557,300 Din.

797,705,000 Din.

243,731,000 Din.

1,243,045,000 Din.

Vital

Pupin Telecom 142,490,600 Din.

423,345,900 Din.

1,305,206,000 Din.

470,626,700 Din.

467,728,500 Din.

725,522,900 Din.

Daily

change

Turnover in

RSD

Company

Ticker P/E

Continuous Trading Method

Daily

changeP/EPrice P/BV

Energoprojekt holding

Soja protein

Naftna industrija Srbije

Aerodrom Nikola Tesla

ROE

Weekly

change

Weekly

change

Alfa Plam

Komercijalna banka

Ticker

1,957,870,000 Din.

14,762,280,000 Din.

Ticker ROECompany

1,632,000,000 Din.

3

-0.14% -16.22%

0.23% -30.06%

0.81% -11.52%

0.14% -17.57%

-0.18% -36.44%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20

sofix bet-c

dj balkan

SOFIX

Slovenija 594.76

Bugarska

SBITOP

320.62

Hrvatska

Index

REGION

ValueCountry / Region

Crobex 1,768.56

YTD

BET

379.25

Rumunija 4,342.97 4,336.95

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 378.56

The European Central Bank’s unprecedented cash injection is easing borrowing costs for Italy, Spain and Belgium,compensating for the lack of a solution to the debt crisis and the risk of recession.Two-year Italian yields have dropped by 50basis points and Belgian notes of the same maturity have declined by 22 basis points since Dec. 21, when the ECB suppliedbanks with 489 billion euros ($636 billion) of three-year loans. Short-dated Italian and Spanish debt outperformed AAA ratedGerman and Dutch securities during that period. “Short-term borrowing costs have come down significantly and that certainlyhelps to buy time,” said Jens Nordvig,managing director of currency research at Nomura Holdings Inc.in New York. “Six weeksago, it looked as if there was going to be an imminent funding crisis, but that’s averted by the ECB’s money injection.”(source:bloomberg)

Balkan

Hungary’s Treasury-bill yields rose to the highest level in 2 1/2 years before an auction today as concern the InternationalMonetary Fund and the European Union won’t resume aid talks pushed the forint to a record low.The government is offering 45billion forint ($140 million) in one-year bills, according to data from the Debt Management Agency on Bloomberg. The yield onexisting Treasury bills of the same maturity increased 20 basis points to 8.8 percent yesterday, the highest since July 2009,according to generic prices compiled by Bloomberg. The forint weakened 0.5 percent to an all-time low of 322 per euro by 8:55a.m. in Budapest.(source: bloomberg)

318.03

593.38

1,771.05

Previous Change

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

CROBEX

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

SBITOP

100

500

900

1300

1700

2100

01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11

SOFIX

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

BET

250

450

650

850

1050

1250

1450

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

4

0.17% 7.26%

0.02% 1.56%

-0.01% -0.17%

-0.55% -3.92%

-0.57% -9.50%

1.24% -16.31%

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p

nasdaq dax

nikkei dj stoxx

8,455.35

251.06

5,699.91

1,277.06

Nikkei 225

SAD

5,668.45

EU 249.62

EngleskaFTSE

S&P 500

2,648.36

1,277.30

Dow Jones Industrial

NASDAQ

WORLD

Country / Region

SAD

ValueIndex

12,397.38

Navedene informacije date su u svrhu opšteg informisanja i ne mogu biti zamena za finansijski savet niti se njihovim objavljivanjem stvara bilo kakva obveza za Banca Intesa adBeograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd ne prihvata odgovornost za bilo kakvu štetu nastalu upotrebom informacija iz ovog materijala. niti garantuje za njihovu tačnost. Zabranjeno jedalje distribuiranje i umnožavanje ovog materijala ili nekih njegovih delova bez prethodnog pisanog pristanka Banca Intesa ad Beograd.

Previous Change YTD

SAD

2,648.72

8,560.11

Dow Jones Stoxx 600

Japan

12,418.42

U.S. stocks erased an early loss to finish little changed, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the highest level since July,as improving sales at retailers and carmakers helped offset lower-than-forecast factory orders. Ford Motor Co. rose 1.5 percentafter carmakers reported December sales that beat analysts’ estimates, capping the industry’s best year since 2008. HomeDepot Inc., Lowe’s Cos.and Starbucks Corp. advanced at least 1.4 percent after the International Council of Shopping Centersincreased its estimate for December retail-sales growth. Yahoo! Inc. lost 3.1 percent after appointing Scott Thompson chiefexecutive officer.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,277.30 at 4 p.m. New York time, after droppingas much as 0.7 percent earlier. The benchmark index is at its highest level since Oct. 28. The Dow added 21.04 points, or 0.2percent, to 12,418.42 .(source:bloomberg)

European stocks were little changed before a French bond sale and a report that may show the American service industry grewthe fastest in three months. U.S.index futures were also little changed, while Asian shares declined. L’Oreal SA gained afterreporting 2011 sales that rose more than 4 percent. Societe Generale SA dropped 1.6 percent after announcing a 10 percent cutin corporate- and investment-banking staff.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent to 250.09 at 8:07 in London. The gaugelost 11 percent last year as policy makers struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis. The March contract on the Standard &Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5 percent.The benchmark measure yesterday retreatedfrom a five-month high on concern that the region’s banks will need to raise more capital to weather the sovereign-debtcrisis.France plans to sell as much as 8 billion euros ($10.4 billion) of debt today in the country’s first test this year of investorappetite for its bonds amid threats of a downgrade of its AAA rating by credit-rating companies. (source:bloomberg)

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

Dow Jones Industrial

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

S&P 500

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

NASDAQ Composite

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

FTSE

120

170

220

270

320

370

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

DJ Stoxx 600

6500

8500

10500

12500

14500

04.01.08 04.06.08 04.11.08 04.04.09 04.09.09 04.02.10 04.07.10 04.12.10 04.05.11 04.10.11

Nikkei 225

\

5


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