05.01.2012
Milica Travica 201-1672 201-3617
Srñan Maletić 201-1263 201-3621Olivera Glisić 201-1314
FX sales UnitCustody Unit Darko Karanović 201-3624
Vitomir Marić 201-1315 Marija Prebanić 201-3626Biljana Radosavljević 201-3622 Dragan Ignja 201-3627
201-3625
Currency Value Previous Change Currency Value Previous ChangeEURRSD 105.8694 105.7880 0.08% EURUSD 1.2954 1.3049 -0.73%USDRSD 81.9359 81.1693 0.94% EURCHF 1.2186 1.2169 0.14%CHFRSD 86.9064 86.8396 0.08% EURGBP 0.8287 0.8339 -0.62%GBPRSD 127.7999 126.8898 0.72% GBPUSD 1.5631 1.5648 -0.11%Source: NBS USDJPY 76.68 76.69 -0.01%
Source: Bloomberg
EUR and USD indicators for current day:
Time Country Period Previous Forecast!! 10:00 Euro zone October -6.4% 2.5%
Source: Bloomberg
Interbank market - Serbia
Value Previous Change bpsSource: NBS BEONIA 8.42 8.46 -4.00
BELIBOR1M 10.75 10.52 23.00T Bills - Serbia BELIBOR3M 11.04 11.04 0.00Maturity Value Previous Source: Reuters
3 month 11.60% 11.90%6 month 10.85% 10.90% Major Key rates
12 month 13.00% 13.00% Value
18 month 13.50% 13.30% ECB 1.00%24 month 13.25% 13.19% FED 0.25%36 month 14.89% 14.89% SNB 0.00%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Treasury - Ministry of Finance Interbank - World
Value Previous Change bpsEONIA 0.395% 0.396% -0.001
FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR1M 0.970% 0.988% -0.018Price Yield EURIBOR3M 1.319% 1.333% -0.014
EURIBOR6M 1.586% 1.598% -0.012A2012 97,23 7,17% LIBOR1M (USD) 0.29530% 0.29530% 0.00000A2013 91,01 6,93% LIBOR3M (USD) 0.58250% 0.58250% 0.00000A2014 90,00 4,48% LIBOR1M (CHF) 0.03167% 0.03167% 0.00000A2015 82,60 5,77% LIBOR3M (CHF) 0.05167% 0.05167% 0.00000A2016 79,48 5,35% Source: Bloomberg
Source: Belex
Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day
Ljiljana Zipovski
Brokerage UnitFinancial market analysis Unit
DAILY REPORT
Domestic market
MM and fixed income
International market
Key rate NBS
Event
9.75
Snežana Spasojević
Industrial new orders MoM
FX rate
Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 45.8 mil EUR at average rate 105, 8821.
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
1.50
1.55
1.60
1.65
01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11
EURUSD
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
96
99
102
105
108
01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11
EURRSD
1
Source: Belex
Value
977.19
YTD
965.77
Previous Change
-24.59%
-24.71%
-1.56%
-1.17%
499.05Belex 15 491.26
Belex line
Ratios
Turnover30,811,031 Din.
141,832 €
-51.30%
294,445 €
Mulk Holdings has acquired a large 10 acre asset in Serbia and announced an investment of $20 million toward theestablishment of a new production facility in Europe.This strategic move is in line with the company's continued expansionprogram of establishing manufacturing plants close to demand markets.The facility, situated in the Nemanjina Street, BanatskiKarlovac, Serbia, 60km from Belgrade (capital of Serbia), will have a state-of-the art production facility with a 3,000 squaremeters office and showroom space and 10,000 square meters of production Area which will be built in several phases.The newfactory will have a capacity of 3 million m2 of fire rated metal composite panels and 10,000 tons of color coated coils.Shaji UlMulk, Chairman of Mulk Holdings International, said: "Our Investment in Europe started last year with the establishment ofAlubond Europe in Pancevo, Serbia in a leased facility.(source:bloomberg)
Equity market
SERBIA
-51.83%
15,004,092 Din.
The Serbian government said on Wednesday it plans to invest around 170 million euro ($221 million) in several constructionprojects this year. Serbia will launch the construction of 1,700 flats for low-income families in 12 cities, a project worth 30 millioneuro, the government said in a statement, quoting the minister of environment, mining and spatial planning Oliver Dulic.Out ofthe 18 billion dinars ($222 million/170 million euro) of state aid earmarked for the construction industry in 2011, only 8.0 billiondinars have been spent while the remainder will be disbursed for this year's projects. A large-scale conversion to residential useof the disused Stepa Stepanovic barracks in Belgrade, a project worth 40 million euro, will also be completed this year, thestatement said.(source: bloomberg)
Serbian PM Mirko Cvetković’s economic advisor Jurij Bajec told Tanjug there was a realistic chance Serbia would maintainmacroeconomic stability in 2012. He believes that macroeconomic stability will be maintained regardless of the influence of thecrisis coming from abroad, because the government has set aside around EUR 1.5bn in the budget for capital projects and EUR600mn for subsidies and has also signed a precautionary arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Bajecstressed it would be very good if Serbia got candidate status for EU membership this year, as this would draw foreign investors,noting the state needed to cut spending and carry out a reform of the public sector and the tax system. "These are definitely notall the necessary measures, because when you are a candidate for EU membership, then investors see a long-term perspectiveof where you are headed, and investments are long-term projects. An investor would be more likely to come with the candidacyas a sort of additional guarantee," he explained. (source: b92)
P / B P / E
Belex15 0,53 4,98
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Belex15
0
700
1400
2100
2800
3500
4200
4900
5600
Belex Line
-9.17%
-3.54%-2.85% -2.55% -2.25%
-1.75%
-0.29% -0.09%
0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.31%
-10.00%
-8.00%
-6.00%
-4.00%
-2.00%
0.00%
2.00%
AGBN SJPT AIKB ENHL IMLK TIGR KMBN MTBN UNBN MTLC VZAS TGAS ALFA PRBN
Daily change - members of Belex15
2
AERO 491 158,593 -1.38% -4.57% 0.75 7.53 10.75
ENHL 382 323,554 -2.55% 0.00% 0.35 5.60 6.62
NIIS 604 2,787,460 -0.16% -1.13% 2.09 5.88 42.34
SJPT 545 944,485 -3.54% 8.57% 0.77 8.62 7.81
TIGR 505 10,100 -1.75% 1.61% 0.26 #N/A N/A -1.76
Izvor: Bloomberg
ALFA 7,200 0 0.00% -2.70% 0.34 2.75 12.92
KMBN 1,695 769,530 -0.29% 2.73% 0.39 5.11 8.62
MTLC 1,600 360,000 0.00% 0.00% 0.47 3.53 14.01
Izvor: Bloomberg
AGBN 2,724 198,852 -9.17% -18.64% 0.11 n/a 6.77
AIKB 1,601 48,030 -2.85% -6.86% 0.33 2.24 14.26
BIPB 31 0 0.00% 0.00% 2.81 n/a -125.23
BMBI 20,000 0 0.00% 0.00% 2.27 13.77 16.91
CYBN 1,666 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.41 n/a -54.60
CCNB 10,450 0 0.00% 4.50% 0.35 14.98 2.33
DINNPB 985 0 0.00% -2.45% 0.89 3.45 17.70
DNOS 976 0 0.00% -11.35% 0.03 n/a 2.16
FITO 1,864 4,387,856 2.42% 2.42% 0.55 2.66 22.12
GLOS 290 0 0.00% 6.23% 0.13 n/a 2.21
IMLK 2,300 57,500 -2.25% 1.81% 2.13 18.06 11.79
INFM 2,290 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.39 105.60 0.40
JESV 4,855 0 0.00% -11.61% 0.83 2.96 28.72
JMBN 13,444 67,220 3.42% -3.20% 0.71 15.47 6.74
KMBNPB 950 0 0.00% -4.81% n/a n/a 8.62
LSTA 300 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.20 0.89 25.59
NPRD 1,021 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.10 0.31 39.62
PLTK 50 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 #N/A N/A -16.32
PRBN 320 6,080 0.31% -1.54% 0.34 n/a -6.61
PRGS 52 0 0.00% 15.56% 0.06 205.29 0.03
PTLK 127 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 232.45 0.06
PUUE 431 0 0.00% 0.23% 0.30 3.09 9.95
MTBN 1,149 14,937 -0.09% -10.93% 0.18 9.48 2.06
SIMP 230 0 0.00% 0.88% 0.04 #N/A N/A -7.95
TGAS 4,300 0 0.00% -0.05% 0.48 4.50 11.27
TLFN 550 0 0.00% -5.17% 0.25 10.62 1.86
UNBN 2,300 0 0.00% 6.88% 0.20 3.44 6.05
VLFR 300 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.22 n/a -58.54
VLFR 321 0 0.00% 1.90% 0.25 2.14 2.47
VINZ 6,200 62,000 -4.62% -8.82% 0.59 3.46 21.84
VITL 1,560 20,280 -11.81% -12.16% 0.33 2.79 12.67
VDAV 4,100 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.46 n/a 2.49
Source: Bloomberg
16,836,070,000 Din.
P/ETurnover in
RSD
Tigar
Čačanska banka
Telefonija
Razvojna banka Vojvodine
DIN prioritetne
A Listing
P/BVWeekly
change
Turnover in
RSD
B Listing
Daily
changePrice
Politika
Komercijalna banka PB
Privredna banka
Napred GP
Lasta
Univerzal banka
Progres
Putevi Užice
Simpo
Tehnogas
Dunav osiguranje
Agrobanka
Jubmes banka
Beogradska industrija piva
Jedinstvo Sevojno
Galenika Fitofarmacija
Informatika
Globos osiguranje
Bambi
AIK banka
Credy banka
867,822,300 Din.
3,616,703,000 Din.
1,258,646,000 Din.
Market Capitalization
5,365,440,000 Din.
98,488,480,000 Din.
Metalac
7,657,980,000 Din.
Market Capitalization
Voda Vrnjci
Veterinarski zavod Subotica
Velefarm
1,229,894,000 Din.
1,191,742,000 Din.
Vino Župa
P/BV
Napomene: (1) Promet=prosečna ponderisana cena x obim. (2) P/BV-price to book value je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i knjigovodstvene vrednosti. (3) P/E-price to earnings je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i zarade po akciji (EPS). (4) ROE-return on equity je racio koji predstavlja odnos neto dobiti i akcijskog kapitala. (5) Mcap-
tržišna kapitalizacija=tržišna cena akcije x broj akcija
20,864,740,000 Din.Imlek
Price
252,958,700 Din.
860,627,300 Din.
ROE
350,487,900 Din.
459,288,000 Din.
1,479,411,000 Din.
3,490,089,000 Din.
354,834,500 Din.
420,918,000 Din.
322,150,600 Din.
1,640,320,000 Din.
13,962,070,000 Din.
Market Capitalization
282,287,800 Din.
1,394,615,000 Din.
3,259,136,000 Din.
Company
280,423,000 Din.
329,844,800 Din.
4,457,629,000 Din.
318,557,300 Din.
797,705,000 Din.
243,731,000 Din.
1,243,045,000 Din.
Vital
Pupin Telecom 142,490,600 Din.
423,345,900 Din.
1,305,206,000 Din.
470,626,700 Din.
467,728,500 Din.
725,522,900 Din.
Daily
change
Turnover in
RSD
Company
Ticker P/E
Continuous Trading Method
Daily
changeP/EPrice P/BV
Energoprojekt holding
Soja protein
Naftna industrija Srbije
Aerodrom Nikola Tesla
ROE
Weekly
change
Weekly
change
Alfa Plam
Komercijalna banka
Ticker
1,957,870,000 Din.
14,762,280,000 Din.
Ticker ROECompany
1,632,000,000 Din.
3
-0.14% -16.22%
0.23% -30.06%
0.81% -11.52%
0.14% -17.57%
-0.18% -36.44%
Source: Bloomberg
crobex sbi20
sofix bet-c
dj balkan
SOFIX
Slovenija 594.76
Bugarska
SBITOP
320.62
Hrvatska
Index
REGION
ValueCountry / Region
Crobex 1,768.56
YTD
BET
379.25
Rumunija 4,342.97 4,336.95
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 378.56
The European Central Bank’s unprecedented cash injection is easing borrowing costs for Italy, Spain and Belgium,compensating for the lack of a solution to the debt crisis and the risk of recession.Two-year Italian yields have dropped by 50basis points and Belgian notes of the same maturity have declined by 22 basis points since Dec. 21, when the ECB suppliedbanks with 489 billion euros ($636 billion) of three-year loans. Short-dated Italian and Spanish debt outperformed AAA ratedGerman and Dutch securities during that period. “Short-term borrowing costs have come down significantly and that certainlyhelps to buy time,” said Jens Nordvig,managing director of currency research at Nomura Holdings Inc.in New York. “Six weeksago, it looked as if there was going to be an imminent funding crisis, but that’s averted by the ECB’s money injection.”(source:bloomberg)
Balkan
Hungary’s Treasury-bill yields rose to the highest level in 2 1/2 years before an auction today as concern the InternationalMonetary Fund and the European Union won’t resume aid talks pushed the forint to a record low.The government is offering 45billion forint ($140 million) in one-year bills, according to data from the Debt Management Agency on Bloomberg. The yield onexisting Treasury bills of the same maturity increased 20 basis points to 8.8 percent yesterday, the highest since July 2009,according to generic prices compiled by Bloomberg. The forint weakened 0.5 percent to an all-time low of 322 per euro by 8:55a.m. in Budapest.(source: bloomberg)
318.03
593.38
1,771.05
Previous Change
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11
CROBEX
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11
SBITOP
100
500
900
1300
1700
2100
01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11
SOFIX
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11
BET
250
450
650
850
1050
1250
1450
DJ Stoxx Balkan 50
4
0.17% 7.26%
0.02% 1.56%
-0.01% -0.17%
-0.55% -3.92%
-0.57% -9.50%
1.24% -16.31%
Source: Bloomberg
dow jones s&p
nasdaq dax
nikkei dj stoxx
8,455.35
251.06
5,699.91
1,277.06
Nikkei 225
SAD
5,668.45
EU 249.62
EngleskaFTSE
S&P 500
2,648.36
1,277.30
Dow Jones Industrial
NASDAQ
WORLD
Country / Region
SAD
ValueIndex
12,397.38
Navedene informacije date su u svrhu opšteg informisanja i ne mogu biti zamena za finansijski savet niti se njihovim objavljivanjem stvara bilo kakva obveza za Banca Intesa adBeograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd ne prihvata odgovornost za bilo kakvu štetu nastalu upotrebom informacija iz ovog materijala. niti garantuje za njihovu tačnost. Zabranjeno jedalje distribuiranje i umnožavanje ovog materijala ili nekih njegovih delova bez prethodnog pisanog pristanka Banca Intesa ad Beograd.
Previous Change YTD
SAD
2,648.72
8,560.11
Dow Jones Stoxx 600
Japan
12,418.42
U.S. stocks erased an early loss to finish little changed, leaving the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the highest level since July,as improving sales at retailers and carmakers helped offset lower-than-forecast factory orders. Ford Motor Co. rose 1.5 percentafter carmakers reported December sales that beat analysts’ estimates, capping the industry’s best year since 2008. HomeDepot Inc., Lowe’s Cos.and Starbucks Corp. advanced at least 1.4 percent after the International Council of Shopping Centersincreased its estimate for December retail-sales growth. Yahoo! Inc. lost 3.1 percent after appointing Scott Thompson chiefexecutive officer.The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 1,277.30 at 4 p.m. New York time, after droppingas much as 0.7 percent earlier. The benchmark index is at its highest level since Oct. 28. The Dow added 21.04 points, or 0.2percent, to 12,418.42 .(source:bloomberg)
European stocks were little changed before a French bond sale and a report that may show the American service industry grewthe fastest in three months. U.S.index futures were also little changed, while Asian shares declined. L’Oreal SA gained afterreporting 2011 sales that rose more than 4 percent. Societe Generale SA dropped 1.6 percent after announcing a 10 percent cutin corporate- and investment-banking staff.The Stoxx Europe 600 Index rose 0.2 percent to 250.09 at 8:07 in London. The gaugelost 11 percent last year as policy makers struggled to contain the region’s debt crisis. The March contract on the Standard &Poor’s 500 Index slid 0.1 percent.The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.5 percent.The benchmark measure yesterday retreatedfrom a five-month high on concern that the region’s banks will need to raise more capital to weather the sovereign-debtcrisis.France plans to sell as much as 8 billion euros ($10.4 billion) of debt today in the country’s first test this year of investorappetite for its bonds amid threats of a downgrade of its AAA rating by credit-rating companies. (source:bloomberg)
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11
Dow Jones Industrial
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11
S&P 500
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11
NASDAQ Composite
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11
FTSE
120
170
220
270
320
370
02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11
DJ Stoxx 600
6500
8500
10500
12500
14500
04.01.08 04.06.08 04.11.08 04.04.09 04.09.09 04.02.10 04.07.10 04.12.10 04.05.11 04.10.11
Nikkei 225
\
5