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FX rate - Banca Intesa Beograd · 2011-11-11 · interested in using Prva Petoletka’s...

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09.11.2011 Milica Travica 201-1672 201-3617 Srñan Maletić 201-1263 201-3621 Olivera Glisić 201-1314 FX sales Unit Custody Unit Darko Karanović 201-3624 Vitomir Marić 201-1315 Marija Prebanić 201-3626 Biljana Radosavljević 201-3622 Dragan Ignja 201-3627 201-3625 Currency Value Previous Change Currency Value Previous Change EURRSD 102.4087 102.1965 0.21% EURUSD 1.3782 1.3747 0.25% USDRSD 74.1018 74.3518 -0.34% EURCHF 1.2360 1.2384 -0.20% CHFRSD 82.6543 82.2772 0.46% EURGBP 0.8569 0.8576 -0.09% GBPRSD 119.1630 119.2074 -0.04% GBPUSD 1.6083 1.6029 0.34% Source: NBS USDJPY 77.79 78.07 -0.36% Source: Bloomberg EUR and USD indicators for current day: beonia Time Country Period Previous Forecast !! 16:30 US Source: Bloomberg Interbank market - Serbia Value Previous Change bps Source: NBS BEONIA 9.88 9.98 -10.00 BELIBOR1M 11.45 11.51 -6.00 T Bills - Serbia BELIBOR3M 11.71 11.72 -1.00 Maturity Value Previous Source: Reuters 3 month 11.60% 11.90% 6 month 11.65% 11.90% Major Key rates 12 month 13.00% 13.00% Value 18 month 13.50% 13.30% ECB 1.25% 24 month 13.19% 12.89% FED 0.25% 36 month 14.89% 14.89% SNB 0.00% euro-linked Source: Bloomberg 6 month 5.25% - euro-denominated Interbank - World 53 weeks 4.48% - Value Previous Change bps 18 month 5.40% - EONIA 1.219% 0.885% 0.334 36 month 5.00% - EURIBOR1M 1.215% 1.223% -0.008 15 year 5.85% - EURIBOR3M 1.474% 1.476% -0.002 FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR6M 1.692% 1.695% -0.003 Price Yield LIBOR1M (USD) 0.24778% 0.24778% 0.00000 A2012 97,02 5,53% LIBOR3M (USD) 0.44417% 0.44139% 0.00278 A2013 92,20 5,34% LIBOR1M (CHF) 0.02333% 0.02333% 0.00000 A2014 87,50 5,35% LIBOR3M (CHF) 0.04333% 0.04333% 0.00000 A2015 83,41 5,23% Source: Bloomberg A2016 78,05 5,58% Source: Belex Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day Bernanke speaks at FED conference FX rate The day opened at lowest level 102, 05/25. In the morning market took upward trend until the highest level at 102, 55/75. Most of the day EURRSD was traded in band 102, 30-50. In the afternoon market took downward trend. The day closed at rate 102, 15/35.Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 31, 3 mil EUR at average rate 102, 3979. Snežana Spasojević 10.75% Domestic market MM and fixed income International market Key rate NBS Event Ljiljana Zipovski Brokerage Unit Financial market analysis Unit DAILY REPORT 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.30 1.35 1.40 1.45 1.50 1.55 1.60 1.65 01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11 EURUSD 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 102 105 108 01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11 EURRSD 1
Transcript

09.11.2011

Milica Travica 201-1672 201-3617

Srñan Maletić 201-1263 201-3621Olivera Glisić 201-1314

FX sales UnitCustody Unit Darko Karanović 201-3624

Vitomir Marić 201-1315 Marija Prebanić 201-3626Biljana Radosavljević 201-3622 Dragan Ignja 201-3627

201-3625

Currency Value Previous Change Currency Value Previous ChangeEURRSD 102.4087 102.1965 0.21% EURUSD 1.3782 1.3747 0.25%USDRSD 74.1018 74.3518 -0.34% EURCHF 1.2360 1.2384 -0.20%CHFRSD 82.6543 82.2772 0.46% EURGBP 0.8569 0.8576 -0.09%GBPRSD 119.1630 119.2074 -0.04% GBPUSD 1.6083 1.6029 0.34%Source: NBS USDJPY 77.79 78.07 -0.36%

Source: Bloomberg

EUR and USD indicators for current day:

beoniaTime Country Period Previous Forecast

!! 16:30 USSource: Bloomberg

Interbank market - Serbia

Value Previous Change bpsSource: NBS BEONIA 9.88 9.98 -10.00

BELIBOR1M 11.45 11.51 -6.00T Bills - Serbia BELIBOR3M 11.71 11.72 -1.00Maturity Value Previous Source: Reuters

3 month 11.60% 11.90%6 month 11.65% 11.90% Major Key rates

12 month 13.00% 13.00% Value

18 month 13.50% 13.30% ECB 1.25%24 month 13.19% 12.89% FED 0.25%36 month 14.89% 14.89% SNB 0.00%euro-linked Source: Bloomberg

6 month 5.25% -euro-denominated Interbank - World

53 weeks 4.48% - Value Previous Change bps18 month 5.40% - EONIA 1.219% 0.885% 0.33436 month 5.00% - EURIBOR1M 1.215% 1.223% -0.00815 year 5.85% - EURIBOR3M 1.474% 1.476% -0.002FX Savings Bond - Serbia EURIBOR6M 1.692% 1.695% -0.003

Price Yield LIBOR1M (USD) 0.24778% 0.24778% 0.00000A2012 97,02 5,53% LIBOR3M (USD) 0.44417% 0.44139% 0.00278A2013 92,20 5,34% LIBOR1M (CHF) 0.02333% 0.02333% 0.00000A2014 87,50 5,35% LIBOR3M (CHF) 0.04333% 0.04333% 0.00000A2015 83,41 5,23% Source: Bloomberg

A2016 78,05 5,58%Source: Belex Note: Interest rates refer to the previous working day

Bernanke speaks at FED conference

FX rate

The day opened at lowest level 102, 05/25. In the morning market took upward trend until the highest level at 102, 55/75. Most of the day EURRSD was traded in band 102, 30-50. In the afternoon market took downward trend. The day closed at rate 102, 15/35.Central bank informed us that till 12:30 total amount of trading was 31, 3 mil EUR at average rate 102, 3979.

Snežana Spasojević

10.75%

Domestic market

MM and fixed income

International market

Key rate NBS

Event

Ljiljana Zipovski

Brokerage UnitFinancial market analysis Unit

DAILY REPORT

1.15

1.20

1.25

1.30

1.35

1.40

1.45

1.50

1.55

1.60

1.65

01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11

EURUSD

75

78

81

84

87

90

93

96

99

102

105

108

01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11

EURRSD

1

Source: Belex

Value

0,60 5,52

SERBIA

9.99%

-17.18%

-18.37%

0.59%

0.65%

536.37

36,548,682 Din.

Think-tank EI projects Serbia’s 2011 inflation in “8% to 9%” range. Belgrade-based think-tank Economics Institute’s (EI) expertsproject Serbia’s inflation to be in the “8% to 9%” range at the end of 2011, Tanjug reported yesterday. At a presentation of the latestissue of MAT, a monthly macroeconomic publication, the EI experts also said they expect the country’s GDP to grow 2% to 2.5% in2011. Serbia’s industrial output will increase by an estimated 2% this year, if current trends are taken into account and assumingthe “optimistic” scenario, MAT Editor-in-Chief Vladimir Vuckovic said.(Source:executivenewsletter)

Serbia’s construction industry is in grave danger of “collapsing,” as the sale of used homes has almost ground to a halt, and thereis “an absence” of private investments in the real estate sector, according to Environment, Mining and Spatial Planning MinisterOliver Dulic, local media reported yesterday. Dulic said that he will make several proposals to Prime Minister Mirko Cvetkovic overthe coming days on how problems in the construction sector can be resolved, according to the reports. The state set aside RSD 18billion to assist the construction industry in 2011, and is now under pressure to earmark the same level of assistance for 2012, hesaid. According to Dulic, a major problem for the sector is the National Bank of Serbia’s (NBS) decision earlier this year to imposean 80% loan-to-value (LTV) ratio for the euro-indexed commercial home loans. The only “serious investor” currently selling homes,in Belgrade’s Stepa Stepanovic mass residential complex, is the Building Directorate of Serbia, according to Dulic. Homes therecan be bought through state-subsidized lending (Source:Executivenewsletter)

P / B P / E

Belex15

325,135 €

Russian firms eye several Prva Petoletka subsidiaries, Serbian deputy PM says. Construction company Trest Gidromontazh fromRussia has expressed its interest in buying two subsidiaries of Serbia’s state-owned hydraulics and pneumatic components makerPrva Petoletka in Trstenik. The Russian company is interested in purchasing Prva Petoletka’s hydraulic cylinders factory Cilindriand metallurgical processing factory TMO, Kalanovic said during a visit to the company in the central Serbian town. Last year, TrestGidromontazh acquired Prva Petoletka Inzenjering, which makes hydraulics and pneumatic components, according to Kalanovic.On the other hand, the association of the defense industrial complex in Russia’s Chelyabinsk region has shown an interest inacquiring Petoletka’s Hidraulika, Kocna Tehnika, Zaptivke and Armature factories, Kalanovic said, without providing any furtherdetails. According to earlier reports, Italy’s USCO, a manufacturer and distributor of spare parts for earthmoving machines, isinterested in using Prva Petoletka’s Mikroelektronika facility to manufacture products for exports.(Source:executivenewsletter)

Belex 15 539.54

Belex line

Equity market

357,631 €

9.87%33,264,452 Din.Turnover

Ratios

1,040.25

YTD

1,047.05

Previous Change

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

08.01.08 08.06.08 08.11.08 08.04.09 08.09.09 08.02.10 08.07.10 08.12.10 08.05.11 08.10.11

Belex15

0

700

1400

2100

2800

3500

4200

4900

5600

08.01.08 08.06.08 08.11.08 08.04.09 08.09.09 08.02.10 08.07.10 08.12.10 08.05.11 08.10.11

Belex Line

4.60% 4.57%

1.18%0.77% 0.76% 0.58%

0.29%0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

-0.22% -0.23% -0.35%-0.70%-1.00%

0.00%

1.00%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

MTBN IMLK AERO AIKB AGBN TIGR MTLC KMBN NIIS VZAS ALFA TGAS ENHL SJPT JMBN

Daily change - members of Belex15

2

AERO 516 3,056,225 1.18% -1.89% 0.78 7.82 10.75

ENHL 426 289,008 -0.23% -3.85% 0.39 6.23 6.62

NIIS 633 5,853,716 0.00% 0.94% 2.22 6.24 42.34

SJPT 565 7,134,820 -0.35% 0.71% 0.80 8.94 7.81

TIGR 524 1,124,083 0.58% -4.90% 0.27 n/a -1.76

Izvor: Bloomberg

ALFA 7,500 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.35 2.87 12.92

KMBN 1,890 94,500 0.00% 0.00% 0.44 5.70 8.62

MTLC 1,720 2,580,000 0.58% -1.21% 0.50 3.80 14.01

Izvor: Bloomberg

AGBN 4,097 2,052,744 0.76% 3.93% 0.17 n/a 6.77

AIKB 1,837 3,164,781 0.77% 2.06% 0.38 2.57 14.26

BIPB 35 1,050 -5.41% 2.91% 3.17 n/a -125.23

BMBI 21,000 0 0.00% 3.95% 2.38 14.46 16.91

CYBN 1,950 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.47 n/a -54.60

CCNB 10,000 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.33 14.33 2.33

DINNPB 1,209 8,463 4.58% 0.66% 1.09 4.24 17.70

DNOS 950 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.02 n/a 2.16

FITO 3,065 2,556,210 0.00% -7.15% 0.45 2.19 22.12

GLOS 279 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.13 n/a 2.21

IMLK 2,311 690,000 4.57% -4.17% 2.13 18.06 11.79

INFM 3,000 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.51 138.34 0.40

JESV 5,200 520,000 0.00% -0.02% 0.89 3.17 28.72

JMBN 14,399 143,990 0.00% 6.66% 0.76 16.57 6.74

KMBNPB 1,088 0 0.00% -0.46% n/a n/a 8.62

LSTA 264 0 0.00% 1.54% 0.18 0.78 25.59

NPRD 1,500 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 0.46 39.62

PLTK 50 7,500 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 n/a -16.32

PRBN 375 187,490 15.38% 4.17% 0.40 n/a -6.61

PRGS 50 0 0.00% 8.70% 0.05 197.39 0.03

PTLK 127 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.15 232.45 0.06

PUUE 623 0 0.00% -11.51% 0.43 4.46 9.95

SIMP 245 0 0.00% 6.52% 0.05 n/a -7.95

TGAS 5,000 25,000 -0.22% -0.99% 0.56 5.23 11.27

TLFN 560 0 0.00% -2.61% 0.26 10.81 1.86

UNBN 2,815 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.25 4.22 6.05

VLFR 355 0 0.00% -11.25% 0.26 n/a -58.54

VLFR 360 0 0.00% -0.28% 0.28 2.40 2.47

VINZ 6,789 0 0.00% 0.00% 0.64 3.79 21.84

VITL 1,850 597,550 -1.65% -1.65% 0.40 3.31 12.67

VDAV 4,490 68,450 -2.39% -2.17% 0.51 n/a 2.49Source: Bloomberg

Turnover in

RSD

Aerodrom Nikola Tesla

Ticker ROECompany

1,754,400,000 Din.

16,460,600,000 Din.

Alfa Plam

Komercijalna banka

Energoprojekt holding

Soja protein

Naftna industrija Srbije

P/BV ROETicker

Daily

change

Turnover in

RSD

Company

Ticker

Daily

change

Vital

Pupin Telecom 142,490,600 Din.

611,936,200 Din.

1,597,459,000 Din.

516,541,500 Din.

553,478,700 Din.

813,670,500 Din.

Company

269,637,500 Din.

329,844,800 Din.

5,183,290,000 Din.

324,349,200 Din.

934,810,500 Din.

259,626,500 Din.

P/E

Metalac

Weekly

change

309,931,100 Din.

1,348,600,000 Din.

16,020,190,000 Din.

Market Capitalization

318,712,100 Din.

246,220,000 Din.

3,018,742,000 Din.

1,334,560,000 Din.

4,000,301,000 Din.

Continuous Trading Method

1,007,337,000 Din.

ROE

Napomene: (1) Promet=prosečna ponderisana cena x obim. (2) P/BV-price to book value je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i knjigovodstvene vrednosti. (3) P/E-price to earnings je racio koji predstavlja odnos tržišne cene i zarade po akciji (EPS). (4) ROE-return on equity je racio koji predstavlja odnos neto dobiti i akcijskog kapitala. (5) Mcap-tržišna

kapitalizacija=tržišna cena akcije x broj akcija

20,864,740,000 Din.Imlek

Price

514,918,500 Din.

404,173,400 Din.

1,584,539,000 Din.

Veterinarski zavod Subotica

Vino Župa 1,346,734,000 Din.

1,413,283,000 Din.

Voda Vrnjci

8,040,879,000 Din.

Market Capitalization

17,487,570,000 Din.

Velefarm

P/BV

3,738,009,000 Din.

406,378,900 Din.

551,421,000 Din.

900,473,000 Din.

4,023,819,000 Din.

1,311,090,000 Din.

Market Capitalization

7,135,830 Din.

104,358,700,000 Din.

Dunav osiguranje

Agrobanka

Jubmes banka

Beogradska industrija piva

Jedinstvo Sevojno

Galenika Fitofarmacija

Informatika

Globos osiguranje

Bambi

AIK banka

Tehnogas

Telefonija

Politika

Komercijalna banka PB

Privredna banka

Napred GP

Lasta

Turnover in

RSD

B Listing

Daily

changePrice

Tigar

Čačanska banka

Credy banka

Weekly

change

P/EPrice

DIN prioritetne

Univerzal banka

Progres

Putevi Užice

Simpo

P/E

A Listing

P/BVWeekly

change

3

0.69% -12.72%

0.30% -25.90%

-0.01% -6.71%

0.09% -13.51%

1.04% -28.74%

Source: Bloomberg

crobex sbi20

sofix bet-c

dj balkan

1,829.80

Previous Change

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50 424.41

Rumunija

Balkan

4,557.03

Swedish fashion retailer Hennes & Mauritz (H&M) said it will open three stores in Romania in November, increasing to 11 thenumber of its stores in the country.The new stores will open in the shopping centres Sun Plaza, in the country's capital Bucharest,Lotus Center Oradea, in northwestern Romania, and Maritimo Shopping Center, in the Black sea port of Constanta, the companysaid in a press release on Thursday. H&M sales in Romania totalled 193 million Swedish crowns ($29.3 million/21.2 million euro) inthe first nine months of the fiscal year 2011 started December 1. (Source:Bloomberg)

Fitch Ratings' latest quarterly Q411 European fixed income investor survey, which closed on 31 October and represents the viewsof managers of an estimated USD5.8trn of fixed income assets, shows that 70% of investors now believe there is a high risk of adouble dip recession compared to 40% and 21% in the prior two quarters respectively. "With much of world growth dependent onemerging market dynamism, this sharp swing in sentiment partly reflects investor concerns over recent signs of a slowing in manyof these emerging economies," said Monica Insoll, Managing Director in Fitch's Credit Market Research group. Respondentsexpressed a more negative sentiment on the outlook for fundamental credit conditions in the EM sovereign sector than in Q311,with 41% of respondents now expecting deterioration, up from 32%. More than one-third of survey respondents (36%) also said EMsovereign credit quality is over-stated and at risk of crisis.(Source:Bloomberg)

Country / Region

Crobex 1,842.39

YTD

BET

420.05

4,553.11

SOFIX

Slovenija 630.07

Bugarska

SBITOP

Index

REGION

Value

338.04

Hrvatska

338.06

628.19

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

CROBEX

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

SBITOP

100

500

900

1300

1700

2100

01.01.08 01.06.08 01.11.08 01.04.09 01.09.09 01.02.10 01.07.10 01.12.10 01.05.11 01.10.11

SOFIX

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

BET

250

450

650

850

1050

1250

1450

DJ Stoxx Balkan 50

4

0.84% 5.12%

1.17% 1.45%

1.20% 2.81%

1.03% -5.64%

0.86% -12.80%

-1.27% -15.38%

Source: Bloomberg

dow jones s&p

nasdaq dax

nikkei dj stoxx

European stocks rose, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index rebounding from two days of losses, as Italy’s Prime Minister SilvioBerlusconi won a parliamentary vote on the budget yet still lost his absolute majority. Vodafone Group Plc gained 1.8 percent afterincreasing its full-year earnings forecast as profit beat analysts’ estimates. Repsol YPF SA climbed 6.3 percent after raising itsprediction for recoverable reserves in Argentina. Banks rallied as Societe Generale SA, France’s second-biggest bank, and LloydsBanking Group Plc, the largest mortgage lender in the U.K., both gained more than 4 percent. The Stoxx 600 rose 0.9 percent to240.50 at the close. The benchmark measure has rallied 12 percent since this year’s low on Sept. 22 as investors speculated thatthe euro area would protect the economies of Italy and Spain from the sovereign-debtcrisis. (Source:Bloomberg)

Stocks closed higher after Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said he would resign. Berlusconi promised to step down onceItaly's parliament passes a package of economic reforms. Many investors saw Berlusconi as an obstacle to measures needed tohelp Italy avoid a debt crisis. U.S. stock indexes turned lower earlier Tuesday after Berlusconi narrowly survived a confidence vote,a sign that he might cling to power. The Dow Jones industrial average rose 102 points, or 0.8 percent, to close at 12,170. The S&P500 rose 15, or 1.2 percent, to 1,276. The Nasdaq composite rose 32, or 1.2 percent, to 2,727. Nearly three stocks rose for everyone that fell on the New York Stock Exchange. Trading volume was above average at 3.8 billion shares. (Source:Bloomberg)

Navedene informacije date su u svrhu opšteg informisanja i ne mogu biti zamena za finansijski savet niti se njihovim objavljivanjem stvara bilo kakva obveza za Banca Intesa adBeograd. Banca Intesa ad Beograd ne prihvata odgovornost za bilo kakvu štetu nastalu upotrebom informacija iz ovog materijala. niti garantuje za njihovu tačnost. Zabranjeno je daljedistribuiranje i umnožavanje ovog materijala ili nekih njegovih delova bez prethodnog pisanog pristanka Banca Intesa ad Beograd.

Previous Change YTD

SAD

2,695.25

8,655.51

Dow Jones Stoxx 600

Japan

12,170.18

WORLD

S&P 500

2,727.49

1,275.92

Dow Jones Industrial

NASDAQ

Country / Region

SAD

ValueIndex

12,068.39

8,767.09

238.44

5,510.82

1,261.12

FTSE

Nikkei 225

SAD

5,567.34

EU 240.50

Engleska

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

Dow Jones Industrial

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

S&P 500

1200

1600

2000

2400

2800

03.01.08 03.06.08 03.11.08 03.04.09 03.09.09 03.02.10 03.07.10 03.12.10 03.05.11 03.10.11

NASDAQ Composite

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

FTSE

120

170

220

270

320

370

02.01.08 02.06.08 02.11.08 02.04.09 02.09.09 02.02.10 02.07.10 02.12.10 02.05.11 02.10.11

DJ Stoxx 600

6500

8500

10500

12500

14500

04.01.08 04.06.08 04.11.08 04.04.09 04.09.09 04.02.10 04.07.10 04.12.10 04.05.11 04.10.11

Nikkei 225

\

5


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