FX Specialist Guide 27

7/31/2019 FX Specialist Guide 27

1/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar

+ US Dollar CAD Dollar

+ AUS Dollar US Dollar+ NZ Dollar US Dollar

+ US Dollar SA Rand

+ US Dollar SING Dollar

+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Week 2704th July 10th July 2012

TheFX Specialist GuidePhilip J Allwright

Mark Sturdy

Authorised and regulatedby the FSA


2/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Summary

Stay BEARISH after violation of Jan low

Stay SQUARE 76.4% pullback area provides support

Stay BULLISH s/term consolidation in process

Stay BEARISH Jan low holding so far

Stay SQUARE modest bounce seen after erosion of Jan low

Stay BEARISH s/term consolidation in process

Stay BULLISH market holding at 1.2000 floor

Stay BEARISH s/term bounce in process

Stay BULLISH after Index pushes beyond the Jan high

Stay BULLISH pullback mode in process after test of 76.4% resistance

Stay BEARISH bounce puts further pressure on resistanceStay BEARISH s/term recovery in process

Stay BULLISH s/term consolidation seen after test of Nov-11 high area

Stay BULLISH s/term pullback mode continues

Summary


3/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

MAJORS

Euro Dollar MonthlyChart:

Earlier resistance was found nearthe 76.4% retracement of thelosses from the 2008 peak.

The long term 50% retracementlevel is again being approachednow.

Euro Dollar

More

In EUR/USD a modest rebound has followed an earlier breach of the Jan low. In USD/JPYsupport remains from the 76.4% retracement area. Recovery in USD/CHF remains inprogress. In GBP/USD the recent rebound has met with resistance. The US Dollar Indexremains in recovery mode.

MAJORS


4/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Dollar

Euro Dollar WeeklyChart:

After violation of earlier 76.4%support temporary support has

emerged around the old 1.2328Oct-08 low area. Failure hereopens up the 1.1875 Jun-10 low.

+ Euro Dollar

MAJORS


5/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Dollar

Euro Dollar DailyChart:

The chart has turned s/termconsolidative after the earlier

violation of the 1.2624 Jan low.The downmove is expected toresume in due course, whichwould call for lower targets/supports such as the fallingsupport line.

As before, interest will be asmuch in the longer term charts asprice moves lower.

We maintain a bear stance here.

+ Euro Dollar

MAJORS


6/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Dollar Yen

Dollar Yen MonthlyChart:

The trend remains down here. Sofar, though, the market has not

been able to hold below themajor 79.70 1995 low.

Dollar Yen WeeklyChart:

The recovery earlier tested bearchannel top resistance. It remainsfirst key resistance on this chart.

+ Dollar Yen

MAJORS


7/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Dollar Yen

Dollar Yen DailyChart:

Resistance remains from theunderside of the earlier bull

channel base, following recoveryoff support from the 76.4%pullback.

A push beyond this would giveshorter term bulls a second wind.

Meanwhile the 76.4% supportneeds to hold to avoid a morebearish outlook.

We maintain a sidelined stancefor now.

+ Dollar Yen

MAJORS


8/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Dollar Swiss

Dollar Swiss MonthlyChart:

The market bounced ahead ofthe main bear channel base

projection.

Dollar Swiss WeeklyChart:

Recovery here recently tested/eroded the 0.9674 Mar-08 lowarea. This begins to turn our

focus on the 0.9955 61.8%recovery level and higher risingreturn line as next potentialresistances.

+ Dollar Swiss

MAJORS


9/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Dollar Swiss

Dollar Swiss DailyChart:

The chart remains positivefollowing the earlier albeit brief

break above the 0.9594 Jan high.Pullback attempts have beenmodest so far, holding above the0.9334 15-Mar high.

Besides levels on the longer termcharts here note a Fibo projectionat 1.0065 as the next possibletarget.

We maintain an overall bull

stance for now.

+ Dollar Swiss

MAJORS


10/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Sterling Dollar

Sterling Dollar MonthlyChart:

Recovery after briefly eroding the1.3677 Jun-01 low confirmed the

importance of this area ofsupport.

Resistance from the 1.7043 Dec-05 low has stayed intact.

Sterling Dollar WeeklyChart:

The falling support line justbeneath 1.5200 coincides with a61.8% retracement at 1.5190,

also marked on the Daily chartbelow. These combine to providekey support, breaking whichwould be a fresh bear sign.

+ Sterling Dollar

MAJORS


11/34


12/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index MonthlyChart:

Recovery attempts have beenresisted at/below the long term

38.2% retracement.

US Dollar Index WeeklyChart:

The recovery has now seenerosion of the 82.590 61.8%retracement, with higher 84.930

76.4% level the next focus ofattention.

+ US Dollar Index

MAJORS


13/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar Index

US Dollar Index DailyChart:

The recent pullback was modest,holding above the support offered

by the 80.738 15-Mar high.Resumption of the upmove wouldturn attention towards resistanceoffered higher up by the bullchannel top.

Interest is as much in the longerterm charts now.

We maintain an overall bullstance here.+ US Dollar Index

MAJORS


14/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

CROSSES

Euro Yen MonthlyChart:

The next downside focus is onthe Fibo projection at 89.40,close to the Oct 2000 low.

Euro Yen

More

A modest bounce in EURJPY has followed recent erosion of the Jan low. EURGBP hasstayed consolidative but is still vulnerable to further weakness. The EURCHF crosscontinues to flat line near 1.2000. GBPJPY is seeing a s/term rebound.

CROSSES

+ Euro Yen


15/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Yen WeeklyChart:

The drop back from near thefalling resistance line has seenapproach to falling supportaround 94.20 currently.

Euro Yen


16/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Yen DailyChart:

The chart seems to be inrecovery mode still, though weare presuming this to betemporary.

As before, a later, clearer breakthrough the area of the 97.01 Janlow area would turn attentiontowards lower support offered bythe projected bear channel base.

We maintain a sidelined stancefor now.

Euro Yen

CROSSES


17/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Sterling

Euro Sterling MonthlyChart:

The drop back from resistance

from the old triangles undersidehas now turned attention towardsthe long term 61.8% pullbacklevel.

Euro Sterling WeeklyChart:

The 0.8065 2010 low wasbreached, with bears firmly incontrol. Lower supports areoffered by the Oct-08 0.7692take-off point and bear channelbase projection.

+ Euro Sterling

CROSSES


18/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Sterling

Euro Sterling DailyChart:

Consolidation continues here,with first resistances coming from

the falling resistance at 0.8160and 0.8218 Jan low. As before,ideally these should hold at thisstage, but a break through thesewould bring into play the higherchannel top projection at 0.8235 -a breach of this latter wouldsignal loss of bear momentumand the chance for a betterrebound phase.

Lower support is offered by thebear channel base projectionaround 0.7745.

We maintain a bear stance here.+ Euro Sterling

CROSSES


19/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Swiss

Euro Swiss MonthlyChart:

The upside focus here is on the

1.2665 38.2% recovery level ofthe whole fall from 2007 high.

Euro Swiss WeeklyChart:

The cross rate earlier putpressure on the resistancearound the 1.2400 Dec-10 low,but continues holding below.

+ Euro Swiss

CROSSES


20/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Euro Swiss

Euro Swiss DailyChart:

Price action continues to cling to

the 1.2000 floor set by the SNB,which lies just above the 1.197429-Aug high area and 1.191223.6% retracement.

Overhead the 76.4% retracementand 1.2400 Dec-10 low remainkey resistance.

We maintain an overall bullstance here.

+ Euro Swiss

CROSSES


21/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Sterling Yen

Sterling Yen MonthlyChart:

The earlier Fibo projection

around 121.00came underattack, but no decisive breakseen. The lower projection at108.60 stays out of reach fornow.

Sterling Yen WeeklyChart:

The sharp drop back fromresistance near the 134.45 38.2%

retracement almost completelyundid prior gains.

+ Sterling Yen

CROSSES


22/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar



+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

Sterling Yen

Sterling Yen DailyChart:

After recovery from the early Jun

low the market remainsconsolidative either side of initialresistance from around the oldchannel base, now exceeded.

Next resistance is offered by the127.11 16-Apr low area. Asbefore, rallies are presumedtemporary.

We maintain an overall bear

stance here.

+ Sterling Yen

CROSSES


23/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar


+ AUS Dollar US Dollar

+ NZ Dollar US Dollar

+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

MINORS

US Dollar CAD DollarMonthly Chart:

The recovery off the 0.9056 Nov-07 low failed to reach the next

retracement level of the 2002-2007 losses, at 61.8%.

The subsequent pullback provedto be deep.

US Dollar CAD Dollar

More

In USD/CAD a76.4% retracement remains first resistance. AUD/USDs s/term recoverymay test higher resistance, the same applying to NZD/USD. In USD/ZAR consolidation hasset in after recent pressure was put on the Nov-11 high. USD/SGD has returned to recentsupport.

MINORS



24/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar CAD DollarWeekly Chart:

Earlier, price action stuck nearthe old 0.9926 Apr-10 low, prior

to recovering. Upside focus isturning back towards the 38.2%retracement of the whole2009/2011 downmove at 1.0800.



25/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar CAD DollarDaily Chart:

The chart still looks to be incorrection mode, after earlier test

of the 76.4% retracement. Asbefore, ideally support will comein at/above the earlier 1.0050resistance area.

A later clear violation of the76.4% level would provide auseful boost to the bulls.

We maintain an overall bullstance here.



26/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

AUS Dollar US Dollar

AUS Dollar US DollarMonthly Chart:

The market is easing back

towards the 0.9405 Nov-09 higharea, which provided previoussupport.

AUS Dollar US DollarWeekly Chart:

Following breach of the bullchannel base, lower supports

include the 0.9386 Oct-11 low,ahead of the multi-year 38.2%retracement at 0.9140.


MINORS


27/34


28/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

NZ Dollar US Dollar

NZ Dollar US DollarMonthly Chart:

The upmove earlier violated the

bull channel top but failed to stayabove.

NZ Dollar US DollarWeekly Chart:

The 0.7330 38.2% retracementremains key support.


MINORS


29/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

NZ Dollar US Dollar

NZ Dollar US DollarDaily Chart:

Recovery here has threatened

resistance around the 0.8054 22-Mar low area. Just above lies the0.8080 61.8% bounce level.

The area between that and the76.4% level coincides with theMar/Apr congestion and thiscould be tough to get through.

We maintain an overall bearstance for now.


MINORS


30/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar SA Rand

US Dollar SA RandMonthly Chart:

The market is recovering after

failing to stay below the 76.4%pullback level.

US Dollar SA RandWeekly Chart:

Latest recovery has seen erosionof the 8.5565 38.2% resistance

level, which previously providedgood resistance last Nov.+ US Dollar SA Rand

MINORS


31/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar SA Rand

US Dollar SA RandDaily Chart:

So far support remains at/above

the 8.0503 11-Apr high.

Bulls still look for a better go atthe late Nov-11 high, and once aclear breach of this is seeninterest will be as much in thelonger term charts. Here keep inmind the bull channel topprojection offering futureresistance.

We maintain a bull stance here.

+ US Dollar SA Rand

MINORS


32/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar SING Dollar

US Dollar SING DollarMonthly Chart:

Earlier weakness found support

near the next Fibo projection, the1.618 swing off prior 2008/2009rebound, at 1.2115. Recoveryhas so far stopped short ofresistance offered by the 1.3438Jul-08 low, ahead of the 1.353523.6% retracement of thedownmove from Dec-01.

US Dollar SING DollarWeekly Chart:

Next upside target is key dualFibo resistance at 1.3360, a

61.8% level and 38.2% level ofthe fall from Mar-09 high.


MINORS


33/34

Summary

MINORS

Disclaimer

CROSSES

MAJORS

+ US Dollar Index

+ Euro Dollar

+ Dollar Yen

+ Dollar Swiss

+ Sterling Dollar




+ US Dollar SA Rand


+ Euro Yen

+ Euro Sterling

+ Euro Swiss

+ Sterling Yen

US Dollar SING Dollar

US Dollar SING DollarDaily Chart:

The recovery off support from theold channel top reversed lastweek, retesting that support. Adrop lower would postpone anyattack on the 76.4% 1.3200 level,which bulls need for their nextboost.

We maintain a bull stance here.


MINORS


34/34

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FX Specialist Guide 27

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