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FY 2013 U.S. Agricultural Trade Forecasts
Changes to FY 2013 Forecasts Exports $1.5 billion to $145 billion Imports $2.0 billion to $115 billion Surplus $3.5 billion to $30 billion
Final Changes For 2012 Exports $0.7 billion to $135.8 billionImports $3.1 billion to $103.4 billionSurplus $2.4 billion to $32.4 billion
USDA’s “Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade”Released on November 29, 4:00 pm EST
Slides prepared by Office of Global Analysis/FAS
U.S. Agricultural Trade
'91 '92 '93 '94 '95 '96 '97 '98 '99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12f
'13f
$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80$90
$100$110$120$130$140$150
Bil
lion
$
30
Exports
ImportsTrade Surplus
Records
137.4
145
115
103.4
32.4 42.5
Soybean exports surge on higher volumes and prices while corn exports fall
135.8
Grains and Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock and Poultry
Cotton Horticultural Products
0
10
20
30
40 FY 2013 Forecasts
Bill
ion
Do
llars
Au
gu
st
No
vem
ber
-$1.9 Billion
-$0.1 Billion
-$0.2 Billion
No Change
November vs. August Commodity Forecasts Higher soybeans exports outweigh lower grain and cotton
+$3.3 Billion
Grains and Feeds
Oilseeds Livestock and Poultry
Cotton Horticultural Products
0
10
20
30
40 FY 2012 Exports vs. 2013 Forecast
Bill
ion
Do
llars
FY
201
2
FY
201
3+$3.7 Billion
No Change
-$2.0 Billion
+$3.4 billion
November FY 2013 Forecast vs. FY 2012 Exports Higher Grains, Oilseeds, and Hort. Products Lead to Record Forecast
+$2.8 Billion
Bulk Exports Rebound While High Value Products Continue to Climb
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(f)0
20
40
60
80
100
Overall Forecast Up $9 Billion from FY 2012
Bulk High Value
Bill
ion
$
$ 50
Bill
ion
$ 54
Bill
ion
$ 86
Bill
ion
$ 91
Bill
ion
Export Volume Continues to Fall
2011 2012 2013(f)0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Volume Drops16 Percent Since 2011
Other
Soybeans
Feeds
Wheat
Coarse Grains
Mill
ion
Ton
s
166 mmt
*Includes cotton, rice, soybean meal, soybean oil, beef & veal, pork, beef and pork variety meats, broiler meat, and tobacco
146 mmt 140 mmt
China Remains Top Market
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (f)0
5
10
15
20
25U.S. Agricultural Exports to Canada, China, & Mexico
Bill
ion
Dol
lars
ChinaMexico
Canada
Second Largest Exports Ever Forecast to China
2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
U.S. Exports to China By Product
Other
Grains
Meats & Products
Cotton
Oilseeds
Bill
ion
$
Exports Up to China and S.E. AsiaChange in FY 2013 Exports from August Forecast
-$200 mil
+$200 mil
$700 mil +$200 mil
+$500 mil
+$200 mil
Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $37.1 billion $1.9 billion
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
'10
11 12 13f
13
17
21
25
29
33
37
41Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 13 Forecast
Nov 13 Forecast
2013 Key Developments
Wheat volume down slightly–competition from India, Russia, and Ukraine. Wheat value down on lower prices but still high historically. Corn volume and value down on strong competition from Brazil, Argentina, and Ukraine
Wild CardsSouth American crop Southern Hemisphere winter wheat crops
Export Outlook for Grain & Feed Products
Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $31.4 Billion $3.3 Billion
Export Outlook for Oilseeds & Products
2013Key DevelopmentsSoybean production exceeds earlier expectationsStrong China soybean demand to continueLess competition from South AmericaRecord soybean and soybean meal prices
Wild Cards China’s soybean import demand Prospects and timing of South American harvest
9
13
17
21
25
29
33
01 '03 '05 '07 '09 11 13f
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
August Forecast
November Forecast
Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $4.6 Billion, $200 million
Export Outlook for Cotton
2013 Key Developments Lower volume expected, primarily due to reduced import demand in China
Wild Cards China reserve policy India export policy
'01
'02
'03
'04
'05
'06
'07
'08
'09
10 11 12 13f
0
2
4
6
8
10Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug Forecast
Nov Projection
Revised FY 2013Forecast: $29.8 Billion $100 Million
Export Outlook for Dairy, Livestock, and Poultry
2013Key DevelopmentsBeef down slightly as lower volumes offset marginally higher prices. Poultry down due to lower unit values and volumes for turkey meat and offals. Dairy up as higher global prices offset lower volumes.Pork is raised slightly on higher unit values.
Wild Cards Changes in BSE protocols Ongoing SPS trade issuesChinese demand for diary and pork
'01'02'03'04'05'06'07'08'09'10 11 12 13f
10
14
18
22
26
30
34
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 13 Forecast
Nov 13 Forecast
Revised FY 2013 Forecast: $32.0 Billion Unchanged
Export Outlook for Horticulture Products
2013Key Developments Long-term growth trend continues Strong exports to Canada, EU, and Japan Tree nut exports higher due primarily to China’s demand for almonds, pistachios and walnuts
2012Key Developments Continued Chinese demand for tree nuts
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 11 '12f
13f
10
15
20
25
30
35
Export Value ($Bil)
Actual
Aug 13 Forecast
Nov 13 Forecast
Record
Imports $2 billion but remain at a record of 115 billion
Tropical Products $1.7 billion – lower prices for sugar, coffee beans, and natural rubber resulting from the economic downturn in the EU and China.
Horticultural Products $900 million – slow pace of processed fruit and vegetable imports in recent months expected to continue
Grain and Oilseeds $1.0 billion –strong U.S. demand for imported corn
Livestock & Dairy $100 million – lower beef and pork imports expected.
Imports are forecast at a record $115 billion – down $2 billion from the Nov. forecast
FY 2013 Imports