FY10 Flash Flood Services Team “We’re #6!” “Hey, we’re still above Program Management”...

FY10 Flash Flood Services TeamFY10 Flash Flood Services Team“We’re #6!”“We’re #6!”

“Hey, we’re still above Program Management”“Hey, we’re still above Program Management”

ARC/HIC Meeting Feb 2010ARC/HIC Meeting Feb 2010 Ernie Wells, OCWWS/HSD

Photo courtesy of NOAA (photographer unknown)

2010 ARC/HIC Meeting 2

Team MembersTeam Members• Peter Ahnert (MARFC)• Tom Donaldson (WGRFC)• David Welch (LMRFC)• John Schmidt (SERFC)• Greg Smith (CBRFC)• Julie Dian-Reed / Jim Noel (WFO/RFC Wilmington OH)• Brian McInerney (WFO – Salt Lake City)• John Woynick (WFO – Topeka)• Kent Frantz (WFO – Atlanta)• Mike Schaffner (WFO – Binghamton)• Ernie Wells (NWSH/HSD)• Harold Opitz (NWRFC)**** Honorary Member

• Peter Ahnert (MARFC)• Tom Donaldson (WGRFC)• David Welch (LMRFC)• John Schmidt (SERFC)• Greg Smith (CBRFC)• Julie Dian-Reed / Jim Noel (WFO/RFC Wilmington OH)• Brian McInerney (WFO – Salt Lake City)• John Woynick (WFO – Topeka)• Kent Frantz (WFO – Atlanta)• Mike Schaffner (WFO – Binghamton)• Ernie Wells (NWSH/HSD)• Harold Opitz (NWRFC)**** Honorary Member


FY08-FY10 Funding ProfileFY08-FY10 Funding Profile

• DHM-TF 36%• FFMP-A Small Basin Support 27%• FFMP-Advanced 15%• Dam Break Modeling 10%• FF Forecasting Tool Evaluation 10%

FY08 371.8K

FY09 250.0K

FY10 229.4K

97%


Recent FF EnhancementsRecent FF Enhancements• FFMP-Advanced delivered in AWIPS OB8.2

– Delivered capability to ingest, display, and monitor multiple guidance and gridded precip sources

• FFMP-A software enhancements delivered in AWIPS OB9– Incorporated novel approach to more accurately compare QPE to FFG, including mechanism to interpolate FFG

values between regular updates from the RFC

• FFMP-A Small Basin Support– Delivered and maintained the Basin Customization Repository, supported WFOs in their FFMP-A basin dataset

customization, created visual metadata, and delivered webinar training– Currently working to host and maintain RFC GFFG datasets

• DHM-TF WFO Prototype– Prototype model operating at PBZ and portion of LWX domain in real time; adding BGM domain

• HPE delivered in AWIPS OB8.3• HPN delivered in AWIPS OB9• NMQ development/operations• ABRFC Gridded FFG • SSHP enhancements delivered in AWIPS OB9 (VAR and HPN QPF ingest)• MPE enhancements delivered in AWIPS builds (DailyQC, etc)• Delivered Enhancements to RiverMonitor application to monitor gage precip data in AWIPS OB8.3• FF Forecasting Tool Evaluation/Verification

– Establishes framework to evaluate the skill/effectiveness of new FF forecasting techniques and better define

warning thresholds for WFO forecasters

• DamBreak Modeling

• FFMP-Advanced delivered in AWIPS OB8.2– Delivered capability to ingest, display, and monitor multiple guidance and gridded precip sources

• FFMP-A software enhancements delivered in AWIPS OB9– Incorporated novel approach to more accurately compare QPE to FFG, including mechanism to interpolate FFG

values between regular updates from the RFC

• FFMP-A Small Basin Support– Delivered and maintained the Basin Customization Repository, supported WFOs in their FFMP-A basin dataset

customization, created visual metadata, and delivered webinar training– Currently working to host and maintain RFC GFFG datasets

• DHM-TF WFO Prototype– Prototype model operating at PBZ and portion of LWX domain in real time; adding BGM domain

• HPE delivered in AWIPS OB8.3• HPN delivered in AWIPS OB9• NMQ development/operations• ABRFC Gridded FFG • SSHP enhancements delivered in AWIPS OB9 (VAR and HPN QPF ingest)• MPE enhancements delivered in AWIPS builds (DailyQC, etc)• Delivered Enhancements to RiverMonitor application to monitor gage precip data in AWIPS OB8.3• FF Forecasting Tool Evaluation/Verification

– Establishes framework to evaluate the skill/effectiveness of new FF forecasting techniques and better define

warning thresholds for WFO forecasters

• DamBreak Modeling


FFG Developments

• Effort initiated by ABRFC (Tony Anderson) to reconvene meetings with RFC FFG focal points

• Ad-Hoc group with no charter• Initial Goals/Impetus

– Re-start dialogue among FFG focal points– CHPS transition impacts on FFG production– GFFG implementation at northern-tier RFCs– National support of GFFG production

• Five meetings starting 26 Aug 09


Discussion Topics• Reported status of FFG/FFH ops at 10 RFCs• Confirmed need for FFH products (SSHP input, FFG vs. FFH

computational differences)• Confirmed need for text products (detailing outside users of county

products, etc)• Modifying GFFG algorithm to account for increases in runoff

potential due to frozen ground and rain-on-snow• More frequent updates of FFG • QPE improvements affecting FFG(also addressed by forcings team)• Confirmed non-use of FFD PIL for GFFG• Standardization of GFFG physical datasets• Moving to national support of GFFG• Reviewed OHD’s description of logic/calculations for generating

legacy FFG/FFH


Current Status

• OHD leading effort to migrate existing FFG/FFH functionality to CHPS– FFH functionality to be delivered to CAT RFCs in March 2010– FFG functionality delivered by June 2010

• Effort by northern-tier RFCs to develop strategy for GFFG algorithm modification to account for increases in runoff potential due to frozen ground and rain-on-snow is delayed by workload associated w/CHPS migration.

• Ongoing FY10 AHPS effort to host and maintain baseline GFFG datasets (e.g. operational threshR grids, LULC datasets, etc.), documentation, and training materials for central backup and national support of GFFG.



FY10 AHPS Flash Flood ServicesFY10 AHPS Flash Flood Services

• Team Members

• Summary of Prioritized Projects/ Funding Details

• Project Descriptions

• Team Members

• Summary of Prioritized Projects/ Funding Details

• Project Descriptions


Prioritized Projects

Total:264.4

• Team recommends focusing AHPS funding on projects 1 – 6, given “target” funding of 250K• May share the cost of Dam Break Project with Hydraulics Team

Cost ($) FTE (weeks)

Add. Fund. Source.

HOSIP/ OSIP*

Number

HOSIP/ OSIP Stage Prioritized Tasks

Responsible Organization

FY09 FY10 FY11

1. DHM-TF development and expanded prototyping

OHD/HSMB 92 102.9 Y 39 N 2009-002 3

2. Dam Break ModelingA OHD 103 +

[53 from Hyd]

70 N 6

N 2008-008

3

3. CBRFC Frequency Surface Response – distributed modeling

CBRFC 3 10.5 Y -

N 2.2*

3.2.3*

4. FFMP Basin Customization Metadata, Support and Training Modules

NSSL/Arthur 82 50 ? - N 2006-015 5

5. FF Forecasting Tool Evaluation / Verification

NSSL/Gourley 23 31 ? 2 NSSL/Gourley

3 months plus SHAVE efforts

2.2*

8.3*

6. Incorporate snow / frozen ground effects into GFFG

NERFC,NCRFC,MBRFC,ABRFC,

OHD 0 ? ?

-

N

2.2*

3.2.3*

3.5*

AGM

7. Gridded Flash Flood Guidance (GFFG) Workshop

SR/Howieson 0 7 N -

N 2.2*

3.2.3*

8. Flash Flood Fatalities Study NSSL/Arthur Howard

0 30 Y -

N

9. CONUS Basin Precipitation Accumulator within NMQ

NSSL/Arthur Howard

0 60 Y -

N 4.1.5*

10. Gage Precipitation Monitor Enhancements

OHD 0 42.5 N 12

N 4.1.5*

11. SSHP Enhancements OHD 0 42.5 N 12 N 7.5.1*

Total Cost 446.4 71


Task #1: DHM-TF development and expanded prototyping

Objective: Demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the DHM-TF approach as a flash flood forecasting tool via prototyping at WFOs. Increase the portability and applicability of the technique by developing data sets necessary for operations in other geographic regions of the country. Define requirements for future operational development via feedback from prototyping efforts at WFOs.

Cost

Contract FY10 Milestones

(Include FY11 milestones if possible) Responsible Organization

FY10 Quarter Completion

DateA $K weeks

Cost

FTE (weeks) Dependencies/Comments

1.1 Augment real-time DHM-TF prototype operations at PBZ by developing/implementing scripts to enable use of HPE/HPN data

OHD Q2 4

1.2 Deliver and install code and data sets necessary for prototype operations at additional WFO (possibly within ABRFC’s domain)

OHD Q3

26.4 8 6 Includes18% tax

1.3 Use simplified routing parameter derivation technique to compute a priori CONUS-wide routing parameters

OHD Q3 42.5 12 7 Includes18% tax

1.4 Continue operations/analysis over Sterling domain including HPE/HPN inputs.

OHD Q4 26.4 8 2 Includes18% tax

1.4 Assess impact of flow history length on DHM-TF operations

OHD Q3 5

1.5 Perform assessment of sub-hourly executions of DHM-TF OHD Q3 5

1.6 Finalize case study analysis and complete summary report detailing performance of DHM-TF and DHM-FSR modeling approaches, with recommendations for operational development

OHD Q4

10


FY10 Milestones(Include FY11 milestones if

possible)

Responsible Organization

FY10 Quarter

Completion Date

CostContract

CostFTE

(weeks)$K weeks

3.1 Add ability to quickly map SMPDBK results to ArcGIS Toolkit

OHD FY10 Q327 8 1

3.2 Finalize documentation OHD FY10 Q4 21 6 3

3.3 Develop training materials and Deliver training

OHD FY11 Q121 6 2

Task #2: Dam Break Modeling

Objective: Document a nationally supportable, consensus set of dam break modeling procedures; foster collaboration with other federal agencies; identify software functional requirements for improved tools

Completed or Ongoing Work: Reviewed existing procedures, learning from USACE and DHS activities, learning about NID, analyzing case studies using different dam break models, developing rapid cross-section extraction and SMPDBK model building tool, writing first draft of guidance document


Task #3: CBRFC Frequency Surface Response – distributed modeling effort.

Objective: To investigate how exceedance percentile discharge and surface flow grids produced using HL-RDHM can be used in real time by forecasters at WFO Tucson to aid their operational flash flood warning decisions. Expand deployment to another WFO and, collaborating with OHD, define requirements for future operational development via feedback from prototyping efforts.

Cost




DateA $K weeks

Cost


3.1 Continue to support operational grid production/distribution from CBRFC and extend the period of record used to develop the historic distribution through end of WY 2009

CBRFC Q2

10.5 Costs are for Travel and hardware purchases

3.2 Develop D2D based 4-panel view suite and AWIPS localization to utilize DHM-FSR output.

CBRFC Q3

3.3 Develop secondary check to ensure cells with high exceedance values are hydrologically meaningful.

CBRFC Q3

3.4 Develop methodology for daily transfer of RDHM carry-over states to WFO-TWC.

CBRFC Q3

3.5 Develop methodology for including WFO-TWC produced High-Resolution Precipitation Estimator (HPE) grids.

CBRFC Q3

3.6 Expand DHM-FSR to a second WFO CBRFC Q3

3.7 Finalize case study analysis and complete summary report detailing performance of DHM-TF and DHM-FSR modeling approaches, with recommendations for operational development.

CBRFC/OHD Q4


Task #4: FFMP Basin Customization Metadata, Support, and Training Modules (also GFFG dataset repository)

Objectives: To create textual and visual metadata for the FFMP-A small-basin customized datasets submitted to the Basin Customization Repository. Continue to develop instructions / training modules for specific requested customization tasks, maintain the Basin Customization Repository, and provide technical support to all WFOs using the FFMP dataset and repository. Develop, host, and maintain RFC datasets associated with GFFG operations.

Cost




Date $K weeks

Cost

FTE (weeks)

4.1 Create visual metadata for all customized datasets that have been submitted to the basin customization repository. This metadata will be accessed through a link on the repository and displayed using the Google Maps API. Textual metadata will continue to be created and maintained.

NSSL Q2 5 2

1

4.2 Develop instructions and/or training module(s) for specific requested customization tasks NSSL Q3 5 2

4.3 Host and maintain the web-based Basin Customization Repository, coordinate the sharing of customized files among WFOs, and monitor/record customization progress to develop and maintain metadata for the changes made by WFOs.

NSSL Q4 5 2

4.4 Serve as point-of-contact to support the WFOs in their FFMPA basin dataset customization, including performing requested customization tasks and re-delineation.

NSSL Q4 7.5 3

4.5 Assist in the research and development of a short-term workaround and/or long-term solution to the issue of numerous basin names in WarnGen.

NSSL Q4 7.5 3

4.6 Host and maintain RFC FFG datasets used in GFFG operation and generation (e.g. operational threshR grids, LULC datasets, etc.) as well as documentation and training materials for central backup and national support of GFFG

NSSL Q4 20 8


Task #5: Flash Flood Forecasting Tool Evaluation / Verification

Objective: Quantify the skill in legacy flash flood guidance (FFG), gridded approaches (GFFG), and distributed hydrologic model simulations using USGS streamflow observations, NWS Storm Data reports, and NSSL’s flash flood observation database.

Cost




Date $K weeks

Cost


5.1 Evaluate skill of FFG and ABRFC-GFFG methods using NSSL flash flood verification database

NSSL Q1 3

5.2 Submit article to Weather and Forecasting describing ABRFC-GFFG and FFG results, emphasizing thresholds to maximize skill

NSSL Q2

task will be leveraged using NSSL internal funding

5.3 Create CONUS-wide flash flood database using NWS Storm Data reports

NSSL Q3 6

5.4 Create CONUS-wide flash flood database using USGS streamflow observations

NSSL Q4 6

5.5 Resume collection of SHAVE flash flood observations throughout summer

NSSL Q4 task will be leveraged using

NSSL internal funding

5.6 Complete CONUS-wide flash flood database using SHAVE observations

NSSL Q4 6

5.7 Deliver Anlaysis/Report establishing benchmark skill of FFG and operational GFFG methods over CONUS utilizing three augmented flash flood observation datasets

NSSL FY11 Q1

10 Will also utilize JJ Gourley’s (NSSL) time


Task #6: Incorporate snow / frozen ground effects into GFFG

Objective: Leveraging expertise at northern tier RFCs, identify a strategy to modify GFFG algorithm to account for increases in runoff potential due to frozen ground and rain-on-snow. This will help support implementation of HL-RDHM derived gridded flash flood guidance in the northern tier RFCs and allow for national implementation/support of the GFFG system.

Cost




DateA $K Weeks

Cost


6.1 Identify strategy to modify GFFG algorithm due to snow/frozen ground issues.

NERFC,NCRFC,MBRFC,ABRFC,

OHD ?

?

Time needed to coordinate plans for this effort.

6.2 Make changes to GFFG code ABRFC / OHD ? ?

Time needed to coordinate plans for this effort.


Task #7: Gridded FFG workshops

Objective: Continue to enhance and customize the Arkansas Red Basin River Forecast Center (ABRFC) GFFG product in different geographical regimes with the assistance of local Hydro Program Managers (HPM).

Cost




Date $K weeks

Cost


7.1 Conduct gridded FFG workshop at WFO JAN

Southern Region

Q3 7 Travel costs for participants and

technical experts


Task #8: Flash Flood Fatalities Study

Objective: To begin an in-depth study of flash flood fatalities in the U.S. during the past five years in order to assess the factors that contributed to these incidents (precipitation, weather phenomena, geographic and topographic conditions, social/cultural aspects) both spatially and temporally towards improving warning services.

Cost




Date $K weeks

Cost

FTE (weeks)

8.1 Identify the set of U.S. flash flood fatality events during 2005-2009 from Storm Data reports.

NSSL Q3 2.5 1

8.2 Develop a GIS database of the flash flood events that includes location, date, time of day (if possible), precipitation amount, terrain characteristics such as slope, land use/cover, transportation information, population density, type of environment (rural/urban), and other pertinent factors.

NSSL Q4 12.5 5

8.3 Conduct a geospatial analysis of the data gathered for the flash flood events to identify any spatial and temporal patterns and commonalities, and attempt to determine the top factors that made these events during this five-year period deadly.

NSSL Q4 5 2

8.4 Conduct initial searches for articles, reports, and contacts (emergency managers, NWS forecasters, others) that would provide additional details about these events. The events for which these can be found will become the subset that will be studied more in depth as this project continues.

NSSL FY11

Q1 10 4 3


Task #9: CONUS Basin Precipitation Accumulator within NMQ

Objective: To develop a prototype seamless CONUS basin precipitation accumulator within the NSSL National Mosaic and Multi-Sensor QPE (NMQ) system to serve as a research tool for evaluating multi-sensor inputs and guidance products within a hydrologic framework.

Cost




Date $K weeks

Cost

FTE (weeks)

9.1 Expand the existing basin precipitation accumulation test code to the CONUS domain for the current QPE products available in the NMQ system.

NSSL Q4 30 12

9.2 Map the seamless CONUS flash-flood-scale basins from the National Basin Repository to the NMQ 1-km grid.

NSSL Q4 5 2

9.3 Offline testing and debugging of the accumulator.

NSSL Q4 10 4 2

9.4 Implement the prototype accumulator code to run in real-time in the NMQ system. NSSL

FY11

Q1 15 6


Task #10: Gage Precipitation Monitor Enhancements

Objective: Update the Gage Precipitation Monitor application within WHFS with several enhancements requested by Western Region WFOs

Cost




Date $K weeks

Cost


10.1 Deliver software changes to the Gage Precipitation Monitor application for incorporation in AWIPS build.

OHD FY11 42.5 12 12 Ranked low due to likelihood that

first post-AWIPS II build will not occur until later FY11


Task #11: Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor (SSHP) Enhancements

Objective: Update the SSHP application within WHFS with several enhancements requested by WFOs

Cost




Date $K weeks

Cost


11.1 Deliver software changes to the SSHP application for incorporation in AWIPS build.

OHD FY11 42.5 12 12 Ranked low due to likelihood that

first post-AWIPS II build will not occur until later FY11



Dam Break Modeling Project Goals

• Document a nationally supportable, consensus set of dam break modeling procedures.

o Where and how to get data

o How to choose a model based on available data (Rule of Thumb, SMPDBK, HEC-RAS)

o How to QC data

o How to derive cross-sections downstream of dam

o How to estimate breach parameters

o How to interpret results

o Examples showing the range of uncertainty

o Examples for training

• Foster collaboration with other federal agencies (USACE, DHS)

• Identify software functional requirements for improved tools


DHM-TF for Flash Flood ForecastingDHM-TF for Flash Flood Forecasting• Modeling Approach

– Distributed hydrologic model with a frequency post-processor– Looking to augment flash flood decision assistance at WFOs

• Modeling Process– DHM produces gridded flow forecasts– Gridded frequency (return period) forecasts are derived based on

historical simulations

• Historical Simulations– Conducted with DHM– Same type of forcing data used as in forecast simulations (need

significant record of unbiased precip)

• Interpretation of Model Output– Map of modeled flood frequencies– Threshold frequency map–local information or 2-yr out-of-bank

assumption–for flash flood determination


Pittsburgh DHM-TF Prototype at WFOPittsburgh DHM-TF Prototype at WFO

Initial Pittsburgh WFO contact, obtained support and computer accounts for DHM-TF

Derived routing parameters over Pittsburgh domain

Set up and tested two DHM-TF configurations on Pittsburgh server 1) DHM-TF with local routing 2) DHM-TF with cell-to-cell routing

Worked with PBZ to refine DHM-TF output display and to create movie-type displays.

Collaborated with PBZ to analyze July 2007 flash flood event and assess real-time and retrospective DHM-TF performance.

Pittsburgh WFO DHM-TF Domain

Example DHM-TF Return Period Output


Sterling DHM-TF Prototype at OHDSterling DHM-TF Prototype at OHD

Presented DHM-TF case study at 2009 EWRI Water Congress

Ran local routing simulation over Maryland and tested against standard routing for June 2009 flash flooding event

Analyzed DHM-TF flash flood simulation performance for September 2009 flash flood over Maryland domain

Monitored real-time DHM-TF prototype at OHD

Sterling WFO DHM-TF Domain

Baltimore

Washington DC

Baltimore

Washington DC


• Completed, then enhanced, Grass GIS and Google Earth programs/scripts needed to visualize DHM-TF output

• Redeveloped HOSIP project plan for DHM-TF, also, work will be continued under new AHPS project

• Traveled to CBRFC to define areas of collaboration between their DHM-FSR research and OHD’s DHM-TF research. Bi-monthly telecons will be conducted to share information on WFO feedback, visualization efforts, and model performance

• Investigated potential collaborative opportunities with ABRFC, in particular with respect to their low water crossing survey effort

• Conducted telecon with CBRFC to discuss DHM-TF simulations at Pittsburgh WFO and DHM-FSR simulations at CBRFC. Also reported on OHD’s KML conversion tools and CBRFC’s AWIPS display tools

Additional FY09 DHM-TF TasksAdditional FY09 DHM-TF Tasks


Future DHM-TF TasksFuture DHM-TF Tasks• Incorporate use of HPE and HPN data at Pittsburgh WFO• Continue operations at Pittsburgh, OHD operations over

Sterling domain• Expand prototype to additional WFOs• Continue DHM-TF/DHM-FSR collaboration with CBRFC• Develop simplified CONUS routing parameter data set• Continue work with field to refine CONOPS and data

visualization techniques• Activate and assess Snow17 within DHM-TF system• Assess impact of length of stream flow history on DHM-TF

output• Investigate sources of long term precipitation and flow

data


FFMP Small Basin Support• Developed, Populated, and Maintained the Basin Customization

Repository with datasets submitted for sharing with other WFOs, and developed metadata with customization and version information to track changes in each dataset.

• Investigated potential workarounds/solutions for reducing the number of FFMP basin names included in Warngen FFW products

• Served as support point-of-contact for WFOs FFMP-A basin dataset customization

• Developed/provided instructions for customization tasks such as table editing, name transfer, basin subdivision, customized CWA integration, creation of additional FFMP “HUC level” shapefiles, and basin delineation in ArcGIS 9.3, as well as general GIS tasks such as converting flooding locations to shapefile format.

• Provided FFMP datasets to WDTB staff and AWIPS software engineers, and provided a copy of the Canadian Digital Elevation Data (CDED) to OHD (for derivation of SNOW17 model parameters).

• Updated the FFMP Toolbox for ArcGIS with additional tools to automate customization tasks to the extent possible. Updates and testing are still in progress. Upon their completion (end of September), the customization webinars will begin.


FFMP Small Basin Support Webinars1) 13 Oct 2009 (2:00 PM EDT)

The Basin Customization Repository: How to Share Your Customization and Incorporate Your Neighbors’ Customization

2) 27 Oct 2009 (2:00 PM EDT)Tier II Processing: Stream Name Verification and Editing

3) 10 Nov 2009 (2:00 PM EST)Tier III Processing: Merging and Subdividing Basins

4) 24 Nov 2009 (2:00 PM EST)Tier III Processing: Clipping Lake/Reservoir and Wide River Polygons

5) 08 Dec 2009 (2:00 PM EST)Tier III Processing: Manual Editing

NOTE: Repeats of these webinars will be scheduled (one or two per week) beginning in January for anyone who cannot make the first offering or needs a refresher after getting started on the customization tasks.


FFMP Small Basin Support Future Plans

• Continue as support point-of-contact for WFOs FFMP-A basin dataset customization

• Develop additional webinars for WFO customization training

• Enhance Basin Customization Repository with Google Maps API visually depicting customization changes


FFG Verification/Evaluation ObjectivesFFG Verification/Evaluation Objectives

• Compare the performance of FFG and GFFG Compare the performance of FFG and GFFG using NWS Storm Data reports, United States using NWS Storm Data reports, United States Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge data, Geological Survey (USGS) stream gauge data, and the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s and the National Severe Storms Laboratory’s (NSSL) Severe Hazards Analysis and (NSSL) Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE) reportsVerification Experiment (SHAVE) reports

• Study Domain is ABRFC using available data Study Domain is ABRFC using available data archive from September 2006 to August 2008archive from September 2006 to August 2008


FFG Verification/EvaluationFFG Verification/Evaluation

• Evaluate skill of FFG techniques using Stormdat data, observed discharge, and NSSL flash flood verification database leveraging Severe Hazards Severe Hazards Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE) Analysis and Verification Experiment (SHAVE) reportsreports

• Provide framework to validate approach(es) for national implementation/support

• Increase knowledge of warning thresholds to share with WFO forecaster


MethodsMethods

• Data Sources:Data Sources:– 1-hour Quantitative Precipitation Estimate 1-hour Quantitative Precipitation Estimate

data (QPE) from National Precipitation data (QPE) from National Precipitation Verification Unit (NPVU)Verification Unit (NPVU)

– 1-, 3-, and 6-hour GFFG from ABRFC1-, 3-, and 6-hour GFFG from ABRFC– 1-, 3-, and 6-hour FFG from ABRFC1-, 3-, and 6-hour FFG from ABRFC


Storm Data StudyStorm Data Study• Verification Source:Verification Source:

– County-based NWS flash flood reports from County-based NWS flash flood reports from 9/1/2006 - 8/22/20089/1/2006 - 8/22/2008

– Reports meant to encompass all flash Reports meant to encompass all flash flooding eventsflooding events

• Study Region: Counties completely within Study Region: Counties completely within the ABRFC borderthe ABRFC border

• MethodsMethods– Compute county maximum ratio and county Compute county maximum ratio and county

mean ratiomean ratio– Populate a contingency tablePopulate a contingency table


Streamflow StudyStreamflow Study• Verification Source:Verification Source:

– 15 minute streamflow data from USGS15 minute streamflow data from USGS• Objective, continuousObjective, continuous

• Study region: ABRFC basins less than 260 kmStudy region: ABRFC basins less than 260 km22 (19 gauges)(19 gauges)

• Calculate 2- and 5-year return periods for each Calculate 2- and 5-year return periods for each gaugegauge

• Identify peak flows that exceed these return Identify peak flows that exceed these return periodsperiods– Defined as observed flash floodsDefined as observed flash floods

• Populate contingency table based on basin-Populate contingency table based on basin-averaged ratio and basin-maximum ratioaveraged ratio and basin-maximum ratio


SHAVE StudySHAVE Study

• Verification source: 2008 SHAVE flash Verification source: 2008 SHAVE flash flooding reportsflooding reports– 472 Reports in ABRFC472 Reports in ABRFC– High spatial and temporal resolutionHigh spatial and temporal resolution– Database does not include all flash flooding Database does not include all flash flooding

events that occurred in study regionevents that occurred in study region

• Reports with questionable time were given Reports with questionable time were given a 24 hour backward search windowa 24 hour backward search window


FFG Verification/EvaluationFFG Verification/Evaluation

• Preliminary study results near completion

• Plan to present initial results at the AMS Radar Conference (5-9 October)


Future Verification/Evaluation WorkFuture Verification/Evaluation Work• Interpolate GFFG and FFG to minimize false Interpolate GFFG and FFG to minimize false

alarms and missesalarms and misses– Weighted interpolation based on rainfallWeighted interpolation based on rainfall– Linear interpolation when conditions are dryingLinear interpolation when conditions are drying

• Expand analysis to other GFFG approaches Expand analysis to other GFFG approaches (DHM-TF method) and larger domains(DHM-TF method) and larger domains

• Consider testing a hydrologic model running Consider testing a hydrologic model running at the flash flood scaleat the flash flood scale


Improved Guidance for Dambreak ForecastingImproved Guidance for Dambreak Forecasting

• Identify/document best method to derive cross-sections

• Setup dambreak analysis using DAMBRK, SMPDBK, and HECRAS; run multiple scenarios; analyze differences in model simulations

• Suggest HECRAS enhancements to USACE

• Complete Dam Break Guidance and Training Documents

• FF Team set aside 50K to support Hydraulics Team effort


CBRFC Frequency Surface Response (FSR)

• Developed a Google Maps over-laid web-based viewer for the FSR Grids hosted on the CBRFC website

• Conducted analysis of historic FSR grids with WFO Tucson and began process of identifying preliminary thresholds

• Supported the operational grid production during the 2009 monsoon season (little precip)

• Began work converting xmrg model output to netCDF for delivery and display in D2D at WFO Tuscon

• Delivered case study presentation to Arizona Hydrologic Society

• Extended routing parameters, HL-RDHM calibrations and FSR to additional portions of the Tuscon warning area


Percentile Surface Flow Grids7/11/2008 11z 7/11/2008 12z

A swift water rescue occurred at the CDO Wash and Overton Road.

Motorist stranded in flooded road near Beverly Road and 29th Street in Tucson


CBRFC FSR Future Plans

• Continue expansion of model domain and refine model calibration

• Finalize method of converting and delivering model output files for display in D2D at WFO Tuscon

• Continue analysis of model output and events to determine appropriate warning thresholds

• Continue collaboration with OHD DHM-TF efforts (Brian Cosgrove)


Potential Future Projects

• Gridded FFG workshops• FFMP-A User’s Conference • Gage Precipitation Monitor Enhancements• SSHP Enhancements• Debris Flow modeling demonstation• GFFG enhancements (e.g. integrating effects

of snow)


FY09 Project DescriptionsFY09 Project Descriptions• DHM-TF WFO Prototype (Cosgrove)

– Prototype model at least two WFOs– Revise product visualization based on feedback from WFO – Expand portablility of prototype via development of national set of routing parameters– Study impacts of 2km grid resolution and length of flow history on DHM-TF operations

• FFMP-A Small Basin Support (Arthur)– Develop a series of training webinars and online instructions detailing Tier II / III tasks– Host and maintain the Basin Customization Repository – Serve as point-of-contact to support the WFOs in their FFMP-A basin dataset

customization

• FFG Evaluation/Verification (Gourley)– Evaluate skill of FFG techniques using Stormdat data, observed discharge, and NSSL

flash flood verification database– Validate approach(es) for national implementation/support– Increase knowledge of warning thresholds to share with WFO forecaster

• DHM-TF WFO Prototype (Cosgrove)– Prototype model at least two WFOs– Revise product visualization based on feedback from WFO – Expand portablility of prototype via development of national set of routing parameters– Study impacts of 2km grid resolution and length of flow history on DHM-TF operations

• FFMP-A Small Basin Support (Arthur)– Develop a series of training webinars and online instructions detailing Tier II / III tasks– Host and maintain the Basin Customization Repository – Serve as point-of-contact to support the WFOs in their FFMP-A basin dataset

customization

• FFG Evaluation/Verification (Gourley)– Evaluate skill of FFG techniques using Stormdat data, observed discharge, and NSSL

flash flood verification database– Validate approach(es) for national implementation/support– Increase knowledge of warning thresholds to share with WFO forecaster


FY09 Project DescriptionsFY09 Project Descriptions• Improved Guidance for Dam Break Forecasting (Reed)

– Identify/document best method to derive cross-sections – Setup dambreak analysis using DAMBRK, SMPDBK, and HECRAS; run multiple

scenarios; analyze differences in model simulations– Suggest HECRAS enhancements to USACE– Complete Dam Break Guidance and Training Documents

• CBRFC Frequency Surface Response (FSR) distributed modeling (Clark)

– Develop a web-based viewer for the FSR grids hosted on the CBRFC website– Analyze historic FSR grids with WFO Tucson and identify preliminary thresholds – Produce FSR grids for WFO Tuscon during 2009 monsoon season

• Gridded FFG workshops at WGRFC/MBRFC (Cooper)• FFMP-A User’s Conference (Smith)• Gage Precipitation Monitor Enhancements (Gobs)• SSHP Enhancements (Gobs)

• Improved Guidance for Dam Break Forecasting (Reed)– Identify/document best method to derive cross-sections – Setup dambreak analysis using DAMBRK, SMPDBK, and HECRAS; run multiple

scenarios; analyze differences in model simulations– Suggest HECRAS enhancements to USACE– Complete Dam Break Guidance and Training Documents

• CBRFC Frequency Surface Response (FSR) distributed modeling (Clark)

– Develop a web-based viewer for the FSR grids hosted on the CBRFC website– Analyze historic FSR grids with WFO Tucson and identify preliminary thresholds – Produce FSR grids for WFO Tuscon during 2009 monsoon season

• Gridded FFG workshops at WGRFC/MBRFC (Cooper)• FFMP-A User’s Conference (Smith)• Gage Precipitation Monitor Enhancements (Gobs)• SSHP Enhancements (Gobs)


Recommended FundingRecommended FundingPriority Proposed Project

Request($K)

Funding($K)

1 DHM-TF development and expanded prototyping 166 92

2 Dambreak Modeling 109 82

3CBRFC Frequency Surface Response – distributed modeling

43.5 23

4FFMP Basin Customization Metadata, Support, and Training Modules (also GFFG data repository)

162 50*

5 FF Forecasting Tool Evaluation/Verification 10 3

6 Gridded FFG workshops at WGRFC/MBRFC 17.15 0

7 FFMP-A User’s Conference 20 0

8 Gage Precipitation Monitor Enhancements 37.5 0

9 SSHP Enhancements 37.5 0

Totals 602.65 250


Recommended FundingRecommended Funding

* Additional Funding from Hydraulics Team

Priority Proposed ProjectRequest

($K)Funding

($K)

1 DHM-TF development and expanded prototyping 166 92

2 FFMP-A Small Basin Support 109 82

3 FFG Evaluation/Verification 43.5 23

4 Improved Guidance for Dam Break Forecasting 162 50*

5CBRFC Frequency Surface Response – distributed modeling

10 3

6 Gridded FFG workshops at WGRFC/MBRFC 17.15 0

7 FFMP-A User’s Conference 20 0

8 Gage Precipitation Monitor Enhancements 37.5 0

9 SSHP Enhancements 37.5 0

Totals 602.65 250

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