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FY15 Preliminary Results Presentation 9 December …/media/Files/O/On...2015/09/12  · 140,173,203...

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FY15 Preliminary Results Presentation 9 th December 2015
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Page 1: FY15 Preliminary Results Presentation 9 December …/media/Files/O/On...2015/09/12  · 140,173,203 0,46,95 203,156,16 0,122,127 100,78,123 240,128,58 46,49,156 255,241,0 46,187,240

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FY15 Preliminary Results Presentation

9th December 2015

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Agenda

2

Evolution of Key Drivers

Summary and Outlook Simon Cooper

CEO

Financial Performance FY15 Wendy Parry

CFO

FY15 Highlights

Simon Cooper CEO

Q and A

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FY15 Highlights

3 Source: Company information Note: Financials are based on audited IFRS accounts

37% YOY increase in Revenue to £62.5m (FY14: £45.6m)

20% YOY increase in Revenue per Unique Visitor from £0.96 to £1.15

Direct contracting averaged 45% of all hotel buying in FY15 with exit rate of 51%

Leverage £ Revenue

By continual optimisation of the customer proposition OTB has doubled its market traffic share since

FY12 whilst driving improvements to both conversion and margin

OTB is delivering real-time individual user level personalisation to an increasing % of visitors

Optimise Customer Proposition

Overall short haul beach market continues to grow and online penetration is increasing

14% YOY increase in daily unique visitors to site to 54.4m (FY14: 47.7m)

27% YOY increase in total transaction value to £453.6m (FY14: £358.3m)

Structural Market Growth & Market

Share Growth

Fixed costs as % of Revenue continue to drop despite significant investment into direct contracting

45% YOY growth in EBITDA to £20m at 32% of Revenue and 47% growth in underlying PBT

Bookings in Sweden have grown at 250% YOY and Norway site is launched

Drive Operational Leverage & Expand

Internationally

Efficiencies in online marketing reduced spend to 48.6% of revenue for FY15 (FY14: 50.7%)

54.8% of traffic to site from brand and direct sources (FY14: 50.6%)

OTB apps achieved almost 400,000 downloads and contributed 3.7% of total traffic in Sept 15

Drive Efficient Share Growth &

Strengthen Brand

OTB is disrupting the retail of beach holidays through innovative technology and customer value proposition

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Business Model

£ Revenue per booking

Conversion

Unique visitors

Revenue per unique visitor

OTB share of market traffic

Online penetration

Revenue

Marketing investment

EBITDA

Fixed and Variable Costs

Unique visitors

Marketing spend per

unique visitor

Short haul beach holidays dynamically

packaged

OPTIMISE CUSTOMER PROPOSITION & LEVERAGE £ REVENUE

DRIVING EFFICIENT SHARE GROWTH & STRENGTHENING BRAND

STRUCTURAL MARKET GROWTH & MARKET SHARE GROWTH

SCALE DRIVES OPERATIONAL LEVERAGE

ADDRESSABLE MARKET +14%

+16% +4% +20%

+37%

+45%

4

OTB’s business model is centred on driving efficient growth in market share whilst

maintaining and improving both conversion and £ revenue per booking

Our strategic initiatives are focused on driving the performance of all of these levers

EBITDA growth is the cumulative effect of improvements in performance of all of the

levers individually

Source: Management Information Note: Financials for OTB are based on audited accounts for FY15 when compared to FY14

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On the Beach has the product advantages of a tour operator with the model advantages of an OTA

5

LOW HIGH Basket Value /Margin Opportunity

LOW HIGH Cost base

Source: Company information

Disruptive retailer of beach package holidays

OTB £MPB

£163

OTB

£27

Cost base 3-5 x OTA

Majority offline sales

Legacy technologies

High fixed cost base

Limited product coverage

Limited product flexibility

TOUR OPERATORS PRODUCT ADVANTAGES

High margin tour

operator product with a low cost OTA model

Cost base £20-40 per booking

Majority online sales

Technology led businesses

Low fixed cost base

Broad product coverage

£MPB often £30-50

Generalised offering

Single element, commodity

purchase

Low basket values

Lower margin opportunity relative

to multiple-element

GENERALISED OTAS PRODUCT DISADVANTAGES

£MPB 5 x higher than OTA

Specialised offering

Multiple elements

High basket values

Higher margin opportunity

ATOL Financial protection

TOUR OPERATORS MODEL DISADVANTAGES

GENERALISED OTAS MODEL ADVANTAGES

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Profit & Loss Account – UK Segment FY15 EBITDA growth of 45% YOY

YTD growth year on year:

TTV +27%

Revenue +37%

EBITDA +45%

Efficient increase in our market traffic share with marketing spend excluding offline as a % of revenue falling to 48.6%

Despite additional investment to support the growth in direct contracting of £0.6m overhead as % of revenue fell from 8.6% to 8.2%

Holding Company costs have increased £0.1m due to additional costs to fulfil the requirements of a plc

EBITDA % revenue at 32% after significant investment for growth in offline and direct contracting in FY14

(1) Variable costs % revenue include wages in the contact centre, card costs and communications divided by revenue (2) Overhead costs % revenue is overhead costs excluding depreciation divided by revenue Source: Company Information Note: Financials are based on audited IFRS accounts 6

P&L UK Segment

Year ending 30 Sep (£m) FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A

TTV 230.1 280.8 358.3 453.6

- growth % 22.0% 27.6% 26.6%

Revenue 30.9 37.5 45.6 62.5

Marketing costs excluding offline (14.2) (18.7) (23.1) (30.4)

Offline (1.0) (1.7)

Total Marketing (14.2) (18.7) (24.1) (32.1)

- % of Revenue (excluding offline) 46.0% 49.9% 50.7% 48.6%

Revenue after marketing costs 16.7 18.8 21.5 30.4

Variable costs (3.3) (3.2) (3.5) (4.9)

Overhead costs (3.5) (3.4) (3.9) (5.1)

Holding Company costs (0.2) (0.2) (0.3) (0.4)

EBITDA 9.7 12.0 13.8 20.0

- growth % 23.7% 15.0% 44.9%

- % of Revenue 31.4% 32.0% 30.3% 32.0%

Daily Unique Visitors '000 36,439 40,278 47,672 54,410

Bookings '000 232 271 326 384

Conversion 0.64% 0.67% 0.68% 0.71%

Revenue per Booking 133.2 138.4 139.9 162.8

Revenue per daily UV 0.85 0.93 0.96 1.15

Variable cost % Revenue (1) 10.7% 8.5% 7.7% 7.8%

Overhead cost % Revenue (2) 11.3% 9.1% 8.6% 8.2%

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Profit and Loss Account - International Investment in Sweden to build scale and brand

Success in international markets will be profitable performance within 2-3 years of launch at scale

After a soft launch in FY14, in FY15 OTB has invested to grow its share of market both online and offline whilst driving improvements to conversion and non branded cost per UV

Improvements delivered to site to support the Swedish launch are expected to increase efficiency of future market rollout

Source: Company Information Note: Financials are based on audited IFRS accounts International only 7

P&L International Segment

Year ending 30 Sep (£m) FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A

TTV 0.9 0.1 1.6 5.6

Revenue 0.1 - 0.1 0.7

Marketing costs excluding offline (0.1) (0.1) (0.7) (1.8)

Offline (0.4)

Total Marketing (0.1) (0.1) (0.7) (2.2)

Revenue after marketing costs - (0.1) (0.6) (1.5)

Variable costs - - - (0.1)

Overhead costs - - (0.1) (0.2)

EBITDA - (0.1) (0.7) (1.8)

Bookings 1,725 190 1,231 4,736

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Profit and Loss Account - Group Underlying profit before tax +46.5% increase YOY

Shareholder loan interest and amortisation of acquisition intangibles below underlying Profit after tax

Future cash conversion combined with the reduction of debt will reduce financing costs

Effective tax rate in FY14 and FY15 was affected by disallowed shareholder interest under the ATCA which will no longer be there in FY16 as shareholder debt was repaid by issue of shares

To ensure alignment with investors the Board will implement an executive / senior management LTIP which targets EPS overperformance and share price growth

Source: Company Information Note: Financials are based on audited IFRS accounts Note: Effective tax rate is based on corporation tax divided by retained earnings excluding deal fees and amortisation of intangibles 8

P&L Total

Year ending 30 Sep (£m) FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A

EBITDA UK segment 9.7 12.0 13.8 20.0

EBITDA International segment - (0.1) (0.7) (1.8)

Group EBITDA 9.7 11.9 13.1 18.2

Depreciation and amortisation (1) (1.1) (1.1) (1.3) (1.8)

EBIT 8.6 10.8 11.8 16.4

External Financing costs (0.1) 0.2 (1.6) (1.6)

Non trading costs (0.5) (0.5) (0.3) (0.3)

Profit Before Tax 8.0 10.5 9.9 14.5

Corporation Tax (1.7) (2.3) (1.8) (2.9)

Profit after Tax Underlying 6.3 8.2 8.1 11.6

Shareholder Interest (4.0) (4.8) (7.0) (7.8)

Deal Fees - - (3.4) (4.9)

Amortisation of acquired intangibles - - (4.3) (4.3)

Deferred tax on amortisation of acquired intangibles - - 0.9 0.9

Retained Earnings 2.3 3.4 (5.7) (4.5)

Effective tax rate 42.5% 40.4% 62.1% 43.3%

Page 9: FY15 Preliminary Results Presentation 9 December …/media/Files/O/On...2015/09/12  · 140,173,203 0,46,95 203,156,16 0,122,127 100,78,123 240,128,58 46,49,156 255,241,0 46,187,240

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Balance Sheet

All customer monies are paid into the trust account which is effectively a debtor to the business

Deferred tax liability relates to deferred tax on the valuation of intangibles (£30.1m Brand and £22.5m technology) on acquisition which is released over 15 years

The bank loan related to a term loan of £22.0 million raised on 4 October 2013 as part of the financing for the investment by Inflexion. This was repaid in full out of the Group’s existing cash balances following Admission on 28 September 2015. The Company has entered into a revolving credit facility of up to £35 million which will be drawn down as required

Source: Company Information Note: Financials are based on audited IFRS accounts 1 Total Fixed Assets excludes deferred taxation 2 calculation trade debtors plus trust account less trade creditors 9

Balance Sheet

FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A

Tangible Assets 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.5

Intangible Assets - IT development 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.6

Intangible Assets - Acquired Intangibles - - 48.3 44.1

Intangible Assets Goodwill 27.0 27.0 21.5 21.5

Total Fixed Assets 28.7 29.1 72.5 68.7

Trade debtors 7.1 13.3 22.3 28.0

Trust Account 17.0 18.2 20.5 23.9

Cash 10.1 15.1 10.5 10.9

Other debtors 0.5 1.6 2.5 1.6

Interest Rate Hedge - - 0.1 -

Total Current Assets 34.7 48.2 55.9 64.4

Trade creditors (18.7) (25.2) (34.0) (45.0)

Corporation tax payable (1.1) (0.7) (0.8) (2.1)

Other taxes and social security (0.6) (0.7) (0.1) 0.4

Accrued expenses (4.2) (5.0) (6.1) (10.7)

Derivative Financial Instruments (0.1) (0.3) (0.7) 0.7

Total net current liabilities (24.7) (31.9) (41.7) (56.7)

NET CURRENT ASSETS 10.0 16.3 14.2 7.7

Deferred Taxation 0.5 0.1 (9.7) (8.7)

Bank term loan (0.3) - (20.5) -

Amortised Term Loan fees (FRS4) - - 1.3 -

Total Bank (0.3) - (19.2) -

Net assets 38.9 45.5 57.8 67.7

Net Debt 9.8 15.1 (8.7) 10.9

Net Trade Drs/Crs 5.4 6.3 8.8 6.9

Page 10: FY15 Preliminary Results Presentation 9 December …/media/Files/O/On...2015/09/12  · 140,173,203 0,46,95 203,156,16 0,122,127 100,78,123 240,128,58 46,49,156 255,241,0 46,187,240

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Cash Flow

FY12A FY13A FY14A FY15A

Opening Cash Balance Total 11.0 27.1 33.3 31.0

Opening Cash Balance Trust 6.6 17.0 18.2 20.5

Opening Cash Balance excluding trust balance 4.4 10.1 15.1 10.5

EBITDA 9.7 11.9 13.1 18.2

Decrease/(increase) in working capital 9.8 0.4 (0.2) 5.7

Movement in Trust balance (10.4) (1.2) (2.3) (3.5)

Purchase of plant and equipment (0.3) (0.5) (0.4) (0.3)

Capitalised Dev Expenditure (0.8) (1.1) (1.5) (2.0)

Operating Cash Flow 8.0 9.5 8.7 18.1

Operating cash/EBITDA 82.5% 79.8% 66.4% 99.5%

Corporation tax (0.5) (2.4) (1.5) (1.7)

Deal costs paid - - - (0.5)

Non underlying costs (0.5) (0.5) (0.3) (0.3)

Interest received 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

Interest paid (0.1) - (1.3) (1.4)

Livingbridge exit/Inflexion investment - (1.7) (8.9) (3.5)

Primary raise 10.0

Repayment of borrowings (1.2) (0.3) (1.5) (20.5)

Proceeds from issue of share capital - - 0.1 0.1

Net increase/(decrease) in cash excluding trust account 5.7 5.0 (4.6) 0.4

Closing Cash Flow excluding trust balance 10.1 15.1 10.5 10.9

Closing Cash Balance Trust 17.0 18.2 20.5 23.9

Closing cash balance Total 27.1 33.3 31.0 34.8

Cash Flow Cash conversion is strong at 99% and cash is reinvested in areas that drive growth

On The Beach has strong cash conversion and supplier payments are working capital neutral apart from the low deposit scheme

The business has no stock commitment and low levels of capital expenditure

IT development expenditure runs at c3% of revenue and is capitalised in line with IFRS requirements

The working capital and cash profile are seasonal. The business maintains a revolving credit facility to cover any working capital requirements mainly relating to the low deposit scheme

£10m primary raise used to pay management loan interest and deal costs with c£3m invested to drive growth

The Board intends to adopt a progressive dividend policy, declaring a first dividend in respect of FY16

Source: Company Information Note: Financials are based on audited IFRS accounts 10

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Key Drivers of Growth

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Market Growth & Market Share Growth

Our addressable market is growing and OTB continues to grow share of market

Overall short haul beach holiday volumes are growing

Online penetration continues to increase

Forecast growth in online short haul beach is +7% CAGR (2015-19) versus historic growth at +5% CAGR (2010-2015)

Dynamic packaging offers greater value and flexibility than traditional package

OTB continues to take share of this growing market whilst tour operators continue to cut mainstream short haul capacity

Short haul beach online versus offline (UK)

Source: Mintel / ONS data, 2013 PhoCusWright report, International Telecommunication Union (ITU), Euromonitor Note: Euromonitor data is based on retail value on an annual basis at year-on-year exchange rates 1 Euromonitor, Growth in Dynamic Packages 2 Mintel data 3 Euromonitor data for 2015-2018 4 Projected CAGR for OTB – 2012-2019

12

2

3

4 OTB share of market traffic FY12 – FY15

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Brand Share

Non Brand Share 14.5%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Short haul beach offline

Short haul beach online

+5%

+7%

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On the Beach sells high margin tour operator style product with a lightweight OTA style fixed cost base

Source: Company information; CAA 2014 data

Competitive Landscape

UK Short Haul Beach Online - Estimated Share On the Beach is well placed to continue to take share of market from:

Smaller OTAs who lack scale, strength of brand and technology capability

Tour operators who have a completely different model and cost base

Both struggle to compete against OTB for traffic on generic beach holiday keywords

Non branded cost per unique visitor is well in excess of the revenue opportunity even with a highly optimised beach holiday proposition and efficient demand generation

Tour operators continue to reduce their capacity in mainstream short haul beach

TUI continues to execute a strategy to sell higher value, differentiated product

Thomas Cook continues to downsize capacity

Growth in online penetration is slow

27%

14%

7% 17%

35%

TUI

Thomas Cook

Jet 2 Holidays

Tour Operators

Smaller OTAs

OTB

13

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Optimise Customer Proposition

Our ambition is to drive a fully personalised cross-device experience for all users on all devices

Source: Management Information

Projects which optimise the customer proposition can be used to increase either conversion or margin or both. These include:

‒ Device level split testing to simplify user journey

‒ Uniquely attractive flexible customer payment schemes

‒ User-level personalisation in real time onsite and individually tailored CRM

‒ Scaling direct contracting function

‒ Increasingly sophisticated traffic shaping driving higher returns from paid search channels

In FY15 we increased Revenue per UV by 20% from each one of the 54m daily UVs to site

We are able to innovate at pace supported by the infrastructure that has been built into the heart of our platform over the last 5 years

£ Revenue per Unique Visitor FY12 – FY15

14

Device level conversion improvement FY15 YOY

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

Direct contractingrevenue per UV

Revenue per UV

Revenue per booking

Conversion Revenue per unique visitor

0.00%

0.10%

0.20%

0.30%

0.40%

0.50%

0.60%

0.70%

0.80%

0.90%

1.00%

Desktop Tablet Smartphone

FY14

FY15

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Leverage £ Revenue

We are well positioned to scale our supply function to achieve significant incremental net margin contribution

The infrastructure is in place to allow us to scale our supply function with minimal incremental overhead

Target for FY16 is 52% total hotels through in house function at 4.5% incremental margin

In FY16 we will also develop our directional selling capability to drive UK rate exclusivity and concept product

Further incremental margin opportunities exist as the business continues to grow:

Flights: Progress made on flight seat distribution agreements –

target incremental sales and increased margin

Ancillaries: Increased ancillary margin and marketing

contributions from in resort suppliers

Product: Expand product offering to address long haul and luxury

segments

Technology: Use technology to optimise point of sale margin

Source: Management information 15

Direct contracting - share of hotel sales Q1 14 to date

Revenue per product type

Hotels (3rd party)

Hotels (direct contract)

Transfers (direct contract)

Flights

Other

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

Jan

14

Feb

14

Mar

14

Ap

r 1

4

May

14

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Au

g 1

4

Sep

14

Oct

14

No

v 1

4

De

c 1

4

Jan

15

Feb

15

Mar

15

Ap

r 1

5

May

15

Jun

15

Jul 1

5

Au

g 1

5

Sep

15

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Drive Efficient Share Growth

Superior customer proposition delivers increased margins and fuels market share growth

For the past 3 years the business has invested c.50% of revenue in marketing to drive share growth in a growing market

Growth in Revenue per UV is well in excess of increase in cost per

UV

50% spend balances short term sales and EBITDA growth and

longer term investment into strength of brand which underpins

longer term EBITDA growth

A multi-channel strategy supported by sophisticated in house bid modelling and 3rd party attribution tool allows efficient share growth

‒ Spending has become increasingly efficient in H2 whilst YOY traffic growth has been maintained

‒ Redeployment of online spend to offline advertising supports strong growth of brand

Growing share cost effectively

Source: Management Information 16

£0.00

£0.20

£0.40

£0.60

£0.80

£1.00

£1.20

£1.40

FY12A FY13A FY14A YTD June 2015

+£0.10 EBITDA per

daily UV

+£0.30 Revenue per

daily UV

+£0.17 Marketing cost

per daily UV

Marketing spend as % of

Revenue 46.0% 50.7% 49.9% 48.6%

% Revenue spent on online marketing – monthly evolution

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

55.0%

60.0%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

FY14 FY15

FY15A

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Strengthen Brand

Developing an integrated and personalised customer engagement programme drives retention of almost 35%

Improvements in repeat bookings are driven by

Strengthening of brand presence across multiple touch points

Increased investment into service pre, during and post holiday

Increasingly personalised content delivered at the appropriate

time through sophisticated CRM programme

Strengthening net promoter score and <0.9% complaint ratio

Repeat bookers have an increased propensity to bypass paid channels

iPhone, iPad and Android app downloads are expected to increase share of free traffic

Investment into offline advertising in FY14 and FY15 has driven significant growth in branded traffic

The proportion of traffic coming to site from branded, free and direct sources is increasing and stands at 55% of overall traffic mix

Increasing volumes of branded traffic and repeat business drive long

term cost per acquisition efficiency

Repeat booking volumes and % of overall business

17 Source: Management data

Repeat as % of all bookings

Branded / free share of traffic FY12 – FY15 (m)

Branded and Free traffic mix

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

40.5% 50.6% 41.9% 54.8%

27% CAGR

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15

50%

CAGR

16.1% 30.4% 22.8% 32.8%

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18

£ Fixed / Variable Cost Per Booking

On the Beach sells high margin tour operator style product with a lightweight OTA style fixed cost base

Drive Operational Leverage

Fixed / Variable costs as % Revenue FY14 vs FY15

OTB fixed and variable cost per booking is well below tour operator competitors

Tour operators fixed and variable cost per booking is in excess of

OTB Revenue per booking

94% of OTB bookings are transacted online versus 50% and 39%

for TUI and TC respectively

OTB fixed and variable costs as a % of revenue are reducing through operational leverage

‒ 7% YOY reduction excluding incremental investment into supply function

‒ Supply infrastructure in place will support growth aspirations

‒ Scalable model supports further leverage of a low fixed cost base

0

50

100

150

200

250

OTB TUI TC

7X OTB

8X OTB

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

12.00%

14.00%

16.00%

18.00%

FY14 FY15

Supply costs

Fixed costs excl supplyfunction

Variable costs

-7.1%

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Expand Internationally

19

Similar trends in Europe to the core UK market represent an attractive expansion opportunity for OTB

Source: Company information, Euromonitor Note: Euromonitor data represents retail value on an annual basis at year-on-year exchange rates; Western Europe (excl. UK) comprises the sum of the following markets: Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Spain and Sweden 1Growth rate measured from FY15 to FY16

2014 Western European package holiday market (€bn)

Share of European Leisure Package Holiday market 2014

TUI

ThomasCook

Kuoni

Other

Online penetration in Europe is low but growing at a faster rate than the UK1

Low cost carriers are expanding their fleets and opening up flights to beach destinations from departure points throughout Europe

The market is dominated by legacy tour operators who have held a stranglehold over seat supply

The key drivers of success in new source markets will be:

Driving non-branded cost per click efficiencies

Improving non-branded conversion

Increasing branded share of traffic

Our objective in Sweden is to deliver a positive return within a finite time period whilst achieving significant share of market

Expected breakeven 2-3 years, payback in 4-5 years

Fixed cost to divest <100k per market

The intention is to roll out further markets in 2016

2.0 1.4

7.7

16.5

11.4

4.2

1.0

8.0

2.3

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00€bn TTV Online Penetration Rate

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Summary & Outlook

20

We have enjoyed a strong start to the new FY and performance is in line with the Board’s expectations

Our direct supply function is performing ahead of expectations driving increased margin

opportunities

Leverage £ Revenue

We have maintained the throughput of innovative ways to personalise the customer

proposition

Optimise Customer Proposition

In our core UK market, we continue to grow our share of a growing market with increasing

efficiency

Structural Market Growth & Market

Share Growth

We continue to drive operational leverage and EBITDA as a % of Revenue is improving

We remain excited about the international opportunity

Drive Operational Leverage & Expand

Internationally

We launch our first full national TV campaign on Boxing Day

Drive Efficient Share Growth &

Strengthen Brand


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