G1: Resource profiles, extrapolation domains and land use patterns

Andy Nelson - IRRI

BWDB IRRI IWM LGED SRDI

BWDB Bangladesh Water Development BoardIRRI International Rice Research InstituteIWM Institute of Water ModellingLGED Local Government Engineering DepartmentSRDI Soil Resource Development Institute

WP1 Geodatabase of the coastal zone

WP2 Characterisation of test sites

WP3 Extrapolation domains of technologies and policies

WP4 Land use plans under future hydrological scenarios

outputs & methodsG1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI

G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI

WP1 Geo-database of the coastal zone• identification and acquisition of data• metadata and data format agreements• geo-database development and documentation

WP2 Characterisation of test sites• geo-referencing of test sites• identification of key site characteristics• identification of links between geodatabase and sites

outputs & methods

WP3 Extrapolation domains of technologies and policies•Essentially, this is an analysis of land use suitability•From WP2 we know what is needed for a technology to succeed•From WP1 we know the factors and constraints across the region•Ecological niche models such as MaxEnt allow us to extrapolate ‘this works here, where else may it work?’ and conversely where is may not work. •The results are probability maps or domains for each technology

•Round table discussion with partners on preliminary results•Final domain maps generated•Evaluation and synthesis of domain maps

G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI outputs & methods

probability100

50

25

5

1

0

G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI

WP4 Land use plans under future hydrological scenarios• Preparation of current land-use plans • Identification of future scenarios and drivers of change • Multi criteria land-use modeling to determine the likely or possible land use based on competing demands and limiting factors

• Roundtable discussion with partners on preliminary results• Final land-use models • Evaluation and synthesis of land-use maps

outputs & methods

G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI

Other crops / other land use

16. Forest/Savanna

15. Water bodies / aquaculture

14. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-rice-rice-rice

13. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-other crops-rice-rice

12. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-rice-rice-other crops

11. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-fallow-rice-other crops

10. Irrigated-GW-TC-rice-rice/other crops-rice

09. Irrigated-GW/SW-TC-rice-rice/other crops-rice

08. Irrigated-GW-DC-rice -fallow-rice

07. Submergence-DC-rice-water-rice

06. Irrigated-GW/SW-TC-mixed crops-other crops-rice

05. Irrigated-SW-DC-vegetables/rice-fallow-rice

04. Rainfed-SC-fallow-fallow-rice

03. Irrigated-GW-TC-rice-mixed crops/rice-other crops

02. Irrigated-GW/SW-DC-rice-water-other crops

01.Submergence-DC-rice-water-other crops

2010 Rice growing areas (by water & by season)

SW/GW : Surface water/Groundwater

SC/DC/TC : Single/Double/Triple crop

outputs

Map developed by IRRI (2011)

G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI

Boro rice (2009-10)Area: 5,011,634 ha

Aus rice (2010-11)Area: 1,103,738 ha

Aman rice (2010-11)Area: 5,816,240 ha

outputs

timelineG1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI

G1 activities2011 2012 2013 2014

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Geodatabase development

Site characterisation

Extrapolation domains

Future land use scenarios

linkages

G1WP1 – Geodatabase

development

WP2 – Site characterisation

WP3 – Mapping extrapolation

domains

WP4 – Future land use planning

G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI

Agriculture & aquaculture systems

Water governance & management

Impact on water

resources

Coordination, change enabling

G2

G3

G4

G5

Data curators

Coastal zone projects

Basin stakeholders

CPWF

Thank you

G1BWDB – IRRI – IWM – LGED - SRDI