Some new trends in development cooperation – nightmares and dreams?

Gabriele KöhlerVisiting Fellow, Vulnerability and Poverty Reduction Team, IDS, Sussex

IDS SussexSussex development lectureBrighton, 12 May 2011

Overview: 1) Where are we?

poverty, exclusion, acute crises

2) Evolution of the development cooperation architecture

six phases

3) Nightmares and dreams resulting from the „bipolar“ architecture

4) The case for a bold visionrights-based, universalist, transformative

Where are we? human development &income poverty

Human development at aggregate level:

slow but steady improvement

Where are we? human development &income poverty

Absolute number and share of extremely poor people has declined since 1990 globally

Where are we? Income poverty & human development

But: number of extremely poor in Africa and South Asia increased using $1.25 per personday income poverty

measure

Number of poor and vulnerable people: 2.5 billion persons using $2 per personday income

poverty measure

Where are we? Systemic social exclusions & intersecting inequalities in North and South

Economic inequalities Social inequalities Gender and age inequalities Spatial inequalities Political inequalities

Where are we? Economic, fiscal, climate crises

at least 100 million more people hungry and undernourished an estimated 64 million more people in income poverty 205 million people unemployed at least 55,000 more children likely to die each year from 2009 to 2015 175 million children affected by climate change

Where are we? Converging North and South

MDG outcomes worst among socially excluded groups – in North and South

Income gap widening Human development gap widening

within countries

Evolution of development architecturePhase I: Colonial administration(1900s – 1950s)

Predominant ideology:Spreading „progress“ and

„civilisation“

Driving forces:• Colonial regimes for economic gain

• Colonial regimes for resources

• Colonial regimes for power

Evolution of development architecturePhase II: Independence movements & „development aid“ (1960-1980)

Predominant ideology: Transfer capital and technology to the capital-deficient

South – economistic approach to development Keynesian economics State led growth

Driving forces: independence movements in the South post-war recovery, affluence, guilt in the North – Re- nascent globalisation

Evolution of development architecturePhase III: structural adjustment(1980s – 1989/1990 and beyond)

Predominant ideology:

• Overstating role of marktes, downplaying the role of the state, intervening in developing country governments‘ policy space

Driving forces:

• Economic and political strength of the developed countries

• Interest in „South“ for markets, production – global value chains

• Debt crisis in the South

Evolution of development architecturePhase IV: Cooperation as “partnerships” (1990s – 2000)

Predominant ideology: End of the „cold war“ : rebalancing of powerSeeming collapse of state-led developmentSeries of UN global summits -

• Social development theme Driving forces:

• greater economic dependence of the North on the South

• Emerging South North trade and investment

Evolution of development architecturePhase V: MDGs; Aid Effectiveness (2000 – 2008)

• Predominant ideologies:push for human developmentfocus on social development – different from

economistic approaches of the 1960sdevelopment onus on the Souththe „bad governance“ discourse

Driving forces: economic & political polarisation Stalled progress on human development; Slow economic growth – or jobless growth; Multiple social exclusions; Accelerating domestic conflicts;Climate change and accelerating frequency of disasters

Evolution of development architecturePhase VI: Bipolar development since 2008

Drivers Emerging BRIC(S) donors with export success, outward

investment, sovereign funds G-20, pushing „G-192“ aside New bilateral donors changing the donor landscape Private foundations - more grants available

Predominant ideology“Pluri-pragmatism”

•One size fits all versus national ownership & policy space•Growth and human development• Overemphasis on evidence based policy-making versus analytical and policy debates versus grand design and visions of social justice

s

Countries of the worldestimated GDP in purchasing power parity, 2010