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7/31/2019 Galapicon Valley
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Weird, Wacky and Fun Stuff is Being Tried
PART 1: Rise of Black Frankenstein! copyright 2011 all rights reserved
page 1
BlogNewcombbn
copyright 2011 all rights reserved
Black Frankenswangalapicon valley and The RISE of
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PART 1: Rise of Black Frankenstein! copyright 2011 all rights reserved
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WHOI am Steve Newcomb. I am most
commonly known as the founder of
Powerset, which is now the Microsoft
Bing search engine. I have been part of
building 12 other startups and none of my
startups have ever failed. Many things
define me, but above all else is my
endless appetite to learn and to discover
new things.
HOWGet notified each time a new essay is
released:
phone: (415) 290-0787email: [email protected]
web: www.blognewcomb.com
twitter: @stevenewcomb
facebook: stevenewcomb
linkedIn: stevenewcomb
WHAT
I am a man, 40 years oldwith brown hair that
seems to have its own
agenda. I stand 6 foot
1.5 inches, but I'm
convinced I have
shrunk at least 1/4
inch.
Sometimes I have
facial hair,sometimes I don't, it
seems to depend on
how close or how far
I am away from
being in the
Caribbean.
WHEREI live in South Berkeley in a normal
house. I'll work anywhere I can get to the
Inter-tubes or any place where I can meet
someone interesting. I particularly like
coffee shops, but I usually dont order
coffee. I love iced tea, it is my elixir of
choice (only with Splenda of course).
WHYThere are far too few entrepreneurs that
stop long enough to share their stories
and knowledge. If just a few of us stop to
take the time to write down what we have
learned so that we could pass it on, we
would make the paths for future
entrepreneurs just a little bit easier to
blaze.
The essays that I write are for the benefit
of founders of startups. My intent is to
offer a no bullshit approach to advising
people. I try to always include lessons
learned from my experiences in
creating my companies. If youare a first time founder, or
considering becoming one, I
hope that my essays can
give you raw insight into
what it was like for me.
And while I dont think
that my experiences
could ever represent all
of the knowledge
necessary to become a
great founder, I do think
that I have a few
nuggets of uncommon
and perhaps unique
insights.
BlogNewcomb
http://linkd.in/cekQQWhttp://bit.ly/c4qrlPhttp://bit.ly/bFuc7lhttp://linkd.in/cekQQWhttp://linkd.in/cekQQWhttp://on.fb.me/bsDRJ7http://on.fb.me/bsDRJ7http://bit.ly/c4qrlPhttp://bit.ly/c4qrlPhttp://bit.ly/bFuc7lhttp://bit.ly/bFuc7lmailto:[email protected]:[email protected]7/31/2019 Galapicon Valley
3/20
One of my favorite movie quotes comes from Men in Black, when agentKay says to the newly minted Agent Jay: There's always an Arquillian BattleCruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to
wipe out all life on this miserable little planet.
In some weird, and sometimes inverted way, thats how I feel about theSilicon Valley. Whether its the blog-o-sphere, the quora-sphere or thehackernews-o-sphere, the cognoscenti seem to constantly offer proof thattheres always some new incubation model, some AngelGate dinner meeting,or some evil venture partner that is about to change life as we know it on ourangsty little startup planet. Here are questions that I have:
Why has YC become so hot? Why has their been an explosion of YCBrethren? and is any of this permanent or is it a sort of combinator bubble?
Why is Yuri Milner and SV Angels offering $150K with no cap and no
discount to all YC Startups? that seems crazy and unsustainable; but is it?
Why did AngelGate happen? Why does it feel like there is some weird
battle going on between YC, TechStars, Angels and VCs?
What is really behind all of these things? Has something fundamental
changed or is this some kind of blip in our path?
What does all of this mean to us? founders... What should we do about it?
But try as I might to name the one thing that is driving all of these changes, Icouldnt - until now.
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BLACK FRANKENSwangalapicon Valley and The RISE of
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A Darwinian Realization
A Darwinian Realization: In the past decade we have seen the rise, and nowdomination, of a new species of startups - what I call the FrankenBoomer
Generation (which I define in detail later). And the impact of this dramaticevolutionary shift is now radiating out to the rest of the species in ourecosystem - incubators, angels and venture capitalists.
YC, TechStars, AngelGate, Yuri and the rest are not actually the change
agents, but rather indicators of the ripples of this larger and more primal
change agent radiating out into our ecosystem; they are the reactions to a
larger reality; In effect, we are witnessing the startup equivalent of the dawn of a new
epoch - the fall of the dinosaurs and the rise of the mammals and the
radiating impacts of that shift;
the really exciting thing is that we arent done yet - were right in the
middle of it, and to me, thats really exciting, scary and thought-provoking.
Principles Behind the TheoryMy theory: In Darwin speak, a period of rapid innovation, or wetter weather,gave rise to a rapid increase in the available technology, or vegetation, and inreaction, a new species rose that was more optimized to the new conditions.
Darwins finches were a really good microcosmic example of the principle offast-pacedadaptive evolutionary radiation. What Darwin discovered was
the radiating effects of weather conditions to vegetation, vegetation to speciesof finches and finch species variation to life forms dependent upon thefinches via, amongst other things, finch poop.
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If you follow the analogy through it means that venture capitalists,
angels and lawyers are the ones who eat founder poop... and in some
weird way that made me feel like I was on the right track;
One possible conclusion of Darwins key findings is that when there isa dramatic shift from dry to wet weather patterns, a correlated dramatic
shift in the species of finches occurs. Since the advent of the Internet,
we have seen a similar dramatic shift in our weather - an exponential
growth in innovation. So if the analogy holds, we should see a
corresponding shift in the amount of vegetation, or technology, and
ultimately in the species of startups found in the Valley;
And if that has happened...has this evolutionary change yet radiated out
to the rest of the ecosystem? What will happen to the founder poopeaters... chrrhmmm, I mean incubators, angels and venture capitalists
who have become highly adapted to a different startup species than the
one that dominates today? In Darwins world, evolution radiates out to
all elements of the chain. So where are we in that radiation?
But first, I think its valuable to dig into my thinking behind exactly what I
mean by a new species of startups.
Species Identification
There are Four Species of Startups - The following is a simple twodimensional characteristic set model where theoretically every startup fallsinto a unique combination of two characteristic sets for a total of fourcombinatorial species variations. As described below, startups arecharacterized by either being Black Swans (going after an unforeseen market),or Innovators Dilemmas (innovating in an existing market), and are also
either Noveltechs (building new technology) or Frankensteins (mashing upexisting technology) creating the following species:
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Each of these four traits focus on different elements of a startup. Black Swan
versus ID is about market focus, where Noveltechs versus Frankensteins are
about the use of technology. Consider the following:
Black Swan (Black....Swan) - a startup going after a new, undefined market;
as described in The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
A very simple and famous example of a technical Black Swan is Google, whosaw Search as an industry when the existing companies that dominated the
Internet market saw Search as search - a feature. However, Black Swans do
not have to rely on novel technology to be a Black Swan. An example of a
non-technical Black Swan is Glee, the TV Show. They have created a winner
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ID Noveltechsexisting markets
& novel technology
ID Frankentechsexisting markets
& existing technology
Black Frankenswansnew markets
& existing technology
Black Novelswansnew markets
& novel technology
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that I would have never called (and frankly will never understand).
Population Size - The number of Black Swans is a function of the
number of available people who are innovative enough to recognizeBlack Swan opportunities, the readiness of innovative ideas for market
and the availability of engineers to build the technology.
Killer Exit - The Black Swan is often hailed as the best example of the
type of companies Valley VCs are looking for - one that goes public,
creates a new market, is worth billions and returns a 100x to investors.
Lesser Exit - Lesser exits for Black Swans however are also possible, but
are often bound by the number of existing big companies that may
value the product as a strategic feature.
Strategies - In terms of go to market strategies, first to market often
dominates, and close follower strategies are less common.
Risks - Historically, Black Swans shared both market risk, for obvious
reasons, and technology risk, because the new markets were created as
a result of employing innovative and new technologies (i.e. they were
often Noveltechs, see below).
Funding - The funding strategy of a typical Black Swan varies, but
generally investors look for new markets to target before they exist.
Well known Black Swan VCs include Kleiner and Sequoia.
Founders - Founders of Black Swans are often some form of outsiders -
people who left college early, or who have bucked the system. People
who march to the beat of their own drum.
Hiring - Employees, or at least early employees of Black Swans, are
different in every company depending on what is being developed.
Innovators Dilemma (ID) - a startup going after an existing market as
described in The Innovators Dilemma by Clayton Christiansen; a company
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that is going after an existing known market with a new, innovative approach
which may or may not be associated with new, novel technology.
A famous example of a technology-based ID is Amazon.com who reinventedselling books using novel online technology. We rarely notice non-
technology-based IDs, but they are everywhere around us. To give you an
example, 18 Rabbits, a snack bar company, is currently capturing market
share from incumbent snack bar company Clif Bar, not through any
technology, but by offering an innovative way to mix new ingredients that is
difficult for Clif Bar to copy for brand reasons.
Population Size - The number of IDs are a function of the maturationcycles of products within existing industries, the level of innovative
technology being developed and the number of employees at
incumbents who realize the opportunity, have the founder instinct and
whose significant others are willing to let them take the risk. If one
could map the sine curves of these movements it would be theoretically
possible to predict the cycles of IDs coming into the market.
Killer Exit -The best case scenario exit is to go public, displace an
existing incumbent (and then purchase Clayton Christiansens second
book The Innovators Solution).
Lesser Exit - A middle case successful exit is to sell the company to one
of the existing incumbents.
Strategies - The go to market strategy for these companies are mixed
between first to market and close follower, but by definition are
followers.
Risks - The risk of failure is almost always encapsulated in the question
well, what if so and so decides to do what youre doing... wont they
just crush you? (BTW I hate that question - the answer is always
Innovators Dilemma). Historically, Innovators Dilemmas had low
market risk, but high technology risk, because by definition, the
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opportunity for the companies was created by the existence of
breakthrough technology.
Funding - The funding strategy of many Innovators Dilemma
companies includes a purposeful selection of VCs that already sit onthe boards of their potential acquirers or were the original backers of
those companies.
Founders - Founders of these types of companies often come from the
incumbents who see the innovation coming as a result of working in
the industry, recognize the dilemma in their own company and go off
on their own to capitalize on their realization.
Hiring - In terms of hiring, Innovators Dilemma companies often have
a dual strategy of stealing the strongest people from the weakest of the
incumbents and hiring fresh people almost right out of college.
Noveltech - a startup that builds novel technologies to create a product. A
great example of a Noveltech is Nuance, which basically invented speech
recognition as we know it.
Education - In many cases, Noveltech CEOs have higher degrees,
particularly in engineering or in whatever field that is specific to the
startup that is being built.
Team - The team that is hired in a Noveltech usually includes at least
one group of engineers highly specialized with advanced degrees.
Age - Noveltech CEOs and team members tend to have a higher
average age than Frankensteins.
Attitude - I dont know why, but for some reason founders of
Noveltechs seem to be the most curmudgeonly of all founders.
Funding - at least ~$500K+ for alpha, ~$4 million++ for Beta and
Market testing, then either raise Series B or sell.
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Beta - Noveltechs can take many months to years to get to the first beta
or even alpha of their product.
Patents - Often Noveltechs have a war chest of patents or at least deep
corporate secrets.
Frankensteins - a startup that combines existing technologies to create a
novel product.
Education - In many cases, Founders/CEOs of Frankensteins dont even
graduate college.
Team - Team members are dominated by all-around-athlete engineersrather than having a majority of highly-specialized engineers.
Age - Most are under 30.
Attitude - I dont know why, but for some reason founders of
Frankensteins are happier, but seem to think the world owes them
something.
Funding - as low as~$20K to beta, ~$400K to get to market, then either
raise Series A or sell.
Beta - A few months down to a few hours.
Patents - Unlikely to be a major strategy.
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How The Singularity Gave Birth to Black Frankenswan
An Arid Landscape in the 1990s supported Noveltechs not Frankensteins -The Chart below depicts the different market segments for startups where the
area of green represents the percentage species mixture and number of allstartups.
It was an arid technical landscape - The Internet as both a technology
and a marketplace was in its infancy and therefore the total amount of
usable and available technologies was very small.
It was an arid business landscape - The business models associated
with the Internet were unknown, unproven and did not have wide
support amongst entrenched incumbents.
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ID Noveltechsexisting markets
& novel technology
ID Frankentechsexisting markets
& existing technology
Black Frankenswans
new markets
& existing technology
Black Novelswans
new markets
& novel technology
In the 1990s
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It was an arid talent landscape - The total number of engineers that
understood Internet technologies were small.
Noveltechs dominated - Because of arid technical, business and talent
conditions, Frankensteins simply couldnt survive in such conditions. Both Black Swans and IDs existed - But IDs probably outnumbered
Black Swans, simply by the nature of Black Swans being things nobody
thought of before and IDs being things lots of people already knew, but
few did anything about.
Founder Poop Eaters Specialized for Noveltechs - The species of
founder poop eaters such as lawyers, venture capitalists and angels
created themselves in such a way to optimize a relationship with
Noveltechs.
Checksum - Go on Crunchbase and do a search of companies prior to
1997 and youll see what I mean. I couldnt find a single Frankenstein
on the list. They were all either ID Noveltechs or Black Novelswans.
Netscape (Black Novelswans)
Yahoo.com (Black Novelswans)
Amazon.com (ID Noveltech); or
Google.com (Black Novelswans) or eBay (ID Noveltech)
Then the weather, or rather innovation, changed - Throughout the remainder
of the 1990s and continuing today, we see a rapid, exponential growth in
innovation. As the Internet matured, the total number of innovations began
to grow. This rapid period of innovation, or wet weather, has given rise to a
rapid increase in the available technology, or the vegetation.
In other words, the bellwethers of a Darwinian evolution, specifically ofadaptive radiating evolution, have taken shape:
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Business Models - the proliferation, maturation and simplification of a
large number of Internet business models which became easily
understood, shared and accepted amongst all species of the Valley
ecosystem;
Technology - the advent of super fast, super scaleable, super elegant,
super easy to learn and use coding languages, common code libraries,
widgets, and apis;
Sharing - the advent of open source business models that made all of
the code libraries above available to all;
Coding - the advent of better programing languages that made it easier
and easier to become an engineer;
Productive Population - the massive shift in the total population of
productive workforce created as a result of technical libraries that made
junior engineers, or even non-engineers, as productive, and in some
cases more productive than senior engineers were 10-15 years ago;
Cloud Computing - the advent of cloud computing, security and other
centralized technologies that changed the time to set up a scalable
production website from months to minutes, and from large capital
expenditures to pay as you go usage rentals;
Founders - the scale of founders who understand Internet business
models and coding and cloud computing.
Today, if you go into Crunchbase, or just think about it for a moment, youllsee the shift for yourself. Unlike other market segments (like green-tech,hardware, semiconductor) which have stayed much the same (depicted in
green) Consumer Internet companies, depicted in blue, have shifted.
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TheFrankenBoomer GenerationExplodes - As indicated by the blue
area, there has been a ginormous population explosion in the total
amount of startups at the seed and angel stage dominated by
Frankenstein companies, creating a wave of a new species of founders:
FrankenBoomers.
Unique to Consumer Internet - This species change only happened in
the Consumer Internet space; other market segments like
semiconductor, biotech, materials, food and greentech did notexperience the same changes.
Internet Noveltechs Lost in the Noise - While the explosion of
Frankensteins has inverted the species mixture in the Valley, what
happened to the actual population of Noveltechs? One theory
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ID Noveltechs
existing markets
& novel technology
ID Frankentechs
existing markets
& existing technology
Black Frankenswans
new markets
& existing technology
Black Novelswans
new markets
& novel technology
Today
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postulates that it has remained almost constant - they are just hidden in
the noise. Another says that those founders who would have created
Noveltechs simply didnt; they created Frankensteins because they were
cheaper, less risky and faster to fail or succeed.
Startup Leaders Today are Frankensteinian Dominated - Consider the
startups who dominate the news now. All of them are technically easy
to build, the difference is that they saw the market differently, or they
saw a different way to combine existing technology:
GroupOn (Frankenstein)
FourSquare (Frankenstein)
Quora (Frankenstein)
Greplin (Frankestein)
Interesting Exercise - go to the Crunchies nominations page http://
crunchies2010.techcrunch.com/and go down the list. Old companies
like Facebook and Twitter are on the list, but they seem to be kind of a
hybrid Noveltech and Frankenstein. But the more you trend towards
younger, newer companies, the more you trend toward Frankensteins.
Back to the Original Questions
Lets look at the questions I posed at the beginning of the essay to see howthey might now be answered?
Why has YC become so hot? Why has their been an explosion of YC
Brethren? and is any of this permanent or is it a sort of combinator bubble?
They are new species ofIncubators reacting to the evolutionary shift.Permanency is always a function of IRR in our industry.
Why is Yuri Milner and SV Angels offering $150K with no cap and no
discount to all YC Startups? that seems crazy and unsustainable; but is it?
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http://crunchies2010.techcrunch.com/http://crunchies2010.techcrunch.com/http://crunchies2010.techcrunch.com/http://crunchies2010.techcrunch.com/http://crunchies2010.techcrunch.com/7/31/2019 Galapicon Valley
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They are new species ofAngels reacting to the evolutionary shift.
Permanency is always a function of IRR in our industry.
Why did AngelGate happen? Why does it feel like there is some weirdbattle going on between YC, TechStars, Angels and VCs?
AngelGate and the other battles between investor species are indicators
of the tempestuous rippling effect of the radiating change going out
throughout the valley.
Actionable Steps
What are the clear actionable things we can take away from this realization?How can we benefit? What dangers exist now that didnt exist before? Whatquestions should we ask?
Use knowledge to your advantage - One of the impacts of this shift is going
to be that it will upset and likely change the existing ecosystem of investing -
particularly early stage investing. The old species of investors will clash and
go into battle with the new species of investors and that will likely result in
higher valuations and seemingly irrational investing. If I were a
FrankenBoomer founder creating a new startup, I would simply take
advantage of this for my own benefit while making sure that I dont screw
myself in the process.
Control over Sale of Company: One of the areas that is most likely
to come under fire is the term in the investors rights agreements that
give investors or board members the right to stop an acquisitioneven if the investors dont have a controlling percentage ownership.
Old investor species will have difficulty letting go of this, new
investors species will likely bend on this one.
High Valuations - High valuations are almost always good for
founders, unless it limits your exit options. Look for old investor
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species to claim that you are stupid for raising at high valuations,
look for new investor species to be irrational and be valuation
insensitive. In reality, super high valuations only screw a founder if
the founder gives minority VCs the right to block a sale of a
company or if the founder is so concentrating on equity preservationthat they arent running their business properly.
Rolling Closes - Rolling closes with ratcheting up valuations and
crazy open ended, no cap, no discount bridges are likely to become
more standard amongst new species of investors and irrational old
species of investors who are fighting to maintain their relevance.
Weird Money - There are going to be some really weird players
coming into our ecosystem and offering money. Look forcompanies, investor groups and anything else that has a lot of
money and doesnt know what to do with it making an attempt at
getting into the Valley ecosystem. Specifically look for big money
from New York to make a move on the Valley, bringing with them
New York rules and players; for that matter, New York itself is likely
to become more of a competitor to the Valley, along with its cousin
Boston.
Big Money - Old style angel investors will become like local book
stores in that they will be threatened by new species of investors
who act like Walmarts.
Conclusions and Questions
We have, in fact, seen a wholesale shift in the mixture of the types of startup
species that exist. While the 1990s were dominated by Noveltechs, we nowlive in a world of the FrankenBoomer Generation where Black Frankenswansand ID Frankentechs feast on the technology vegetation created by theSingularity.
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Large Pool of Available Technology is Permanent - This wet weather
pattern and the corresponding vegetation seems to have the
hallmarks of a climactic rather than seasonal shift. The growth of
available, usable mashup-able technologies is not likely to slow
down anytime soon, so it seems likely that the trend towardsFrankensteins is not a fad, but rather a long term trend.
The Cost of Testing a Beta is Permanently Cheaper - If thats true,
then it logically follows that the pool of mashup-able technologies
will only get larger (and likely exponentially larger) and betas will
become even cheaper.
A Permanent Increase in the Demand to Want to be a Founder - If
thats true, then it only gets easier to try to do a startup, so it seemslikely that the trend towards an ever growing population of people
who want to create seed and beta stage startups is likely to be a long
term trend.
A Permanent Increase in the Demand for Early Stage Financing - If
thats true then we have a huge bubble of FrankenBoomers that will
be coming at every stage of financing including seed, angel and
venture capital financing.
But thats where it ends. There is a core misalignment in what the supply of
people who want to create startups and what drives the supply of money
from investors. For startups, its all the things I mention above, but for
investors it ultimately boils down to return on investment. No matter how
many people want to be founders of a new company, without money, its all
irrelevant. So there are a couple of possibilities:
No Ripples Beyond Series A - The evolutionary impacts of the
FrankenBoomer shift has, to date, shown no indication that changes
have radiated beyond Series A investing. Regardless of that fact that
there has been an exponential growth in founders attempting to
mash up new startups, there has been little or no growth in the
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number of companies hitting Series B, there has been little or no
impact on the total dollars of startup acquisitions and little or no
impact on the public markets.
The Bubble - So what we have is this huge bubble of early stagecompanies at seed, angel and somewhat at Series A, but no impacts
are really felt later than that from the FrankenBoomers;
Physics of Macro Market Physics - The physics of market dynamics
mean that the total wallet size and the total number of companies
going public, or getting acquired will always stay about the same;
Therefore, a filtering effect happens that makes the FrankenBoomer
Generations impacts moot when considering large scale markets.
A Very Stoppable Force Meets Immovable Logic - Either the fail rate
of the FrankenBoomers will dramatically grow in line with its own
growth in numbers, or the average size of exits will decline. Either
way there will be a balancing of the system. These physics are not
likely to change.
Expect IRR for Early Stage to Be Trending Down for Old Species of
Early Stage Investors - So if thats true then a correlated shift
downward should happen to early stage investors; Old species,relying on the 2/20 model will find it difficult to survive and raise
new funds once the current funds are put to use.
A New Early Stage Investors Species - New fund models, however,
are more likely to find a way to survive. This is in essence perhaps
one of the most important potential nuggets of this essay. The new
species of early stage investors that adapt their financial model to
the new species of founders are likely to be the ones that survive.
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The Next EssayEven though I still have much more to say and I still have many questions to
pose this essay is getting ridiculously long. So I will release my other thoughts
in short(ish) essays that will be released in sections designed to be long
enough to get make a worthy point, but short enough to minimize death
threats to me.
The next essay I plan to release is titled YC Makes Yummier Primordial Soup.
It delves into the radiating impacts of the rise of Black Frankenswans and ID
Frankentechs Startups, the impacts of the new FrankenBoomers species of
founders, and the creation of new species of FrankenBoomer poop eaters,
chrremm, investors - the most prominent examples being two new, but
separate species - YCombinator and TechStars.
Special Thanks: Although it in no way means that these people endorse,
believe in or even like me, I would like to say thank you to them for debating,
arguing, agreeing and disagreeing with me as I prepared this essay.
Lucinda Newcomb
Aaron Brodeur
Emily Melton
Donna Boyer
Andre Marquis
Jennifer Walske
Archit Bhargava
Brent Schulkin
Shawn Broderick
Reid Hoffman
Katie Rae
Franco Salvetti
Benjamin Black
Cliff Moon
Sahil Jain
Naval Ravikant
Babak Nivi
Darshan Shanker
David Cohen
Will Fitzgerald
Pejman Nozad
Kalvin Wang
Natasha Mooney
Dan Birken
Ryan Mickle
Aditya Mahesh
Tibet Sprague
Thomas Korte
Yin Yin Wu
Alex Le
Siqi Chen
Justin Joshimura
Brent Locks
Marcus Ogawa
Phillip Mobin
Chris McCann
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