Garanti macro report - Jan 2018

Quarterly Macroeconomic

1

QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT ROMANIA – JAN 2018

All eyes on the

budget, RON rates

Moody’s: Baa3 positive / S&P: BBB-stable

/ Fitch: BBB- stable AGRICULTURE IS THE MAIN DRIVER,

Q3 2017 GDP PP CONTRIBUTION

CONSUMPTION REMAINS HIGH PACED;

INVESTMENTS ARE POSITIVE

Q3 2017 GDP PP CONTRIBUTION

Outlook – Q3 GDP growth of 8.8%yoy was more

than double the potential growth, but unlike in the

previous quarters, investments were spotted as well,

most likely private ones. Looking forward, key

players like industry and trade may determine a

GDP rate slowdown to 4% in 2018 versus 6.5% in

2017. Trade should record a milder pace as

disposable income is likely to increase more slowly.

Inflation (3.3%yoy in December) could

reach a peak in Q1 2018. Considering that average

inflation was just 1.3% in 2017, NBR is expected to

act upon the rising price pressures and operate

several hikes in 2018, after it already raised the key

rate to 2% in January. We pencilled in a few other

hikes up to 2.75%, while the yearly inflation

average could be 4% in 2018.

The twin deficit is forming again. We

expect a 3.5% budget deficit this year, which will

continue to pressure down investments in the short

term. The 3.2% CA gap (12M rolling, Oct) does not

pose problems and it continues to be financed by

FDI and EU funds.

The widening of the CA deficit which is

accompanied by possible investment climate

deterioration may lead to depreciation pressures in

2018, pushing the EUR/RON to 4.78 by the end of

the year.

Lending has restarted to advance, at an

annual pace of 6.8% in November, more than

double compared to the euro-zone. For the moment

though, private loans penetration continued to drop

and deleveraging is still taking place, albeit at a

lower speed. While household lending has been

picking up since Q2 2015, companies’ lending has

moved in the positive territory in the first quarter of

2017 and both sectors are now advancing at a pace

of 6-8% annually. The bets for future growth fall

especially on companies’ loans, while the household

sector is seen by NBR to be over indebted.

Main Topics:

Economic growth: Growth rate significantly

above potential

Monetary stance: NBR starts tightening

2018 budget deficit at 3% could continue to

weigh on investments

External Accounts and Financing – The CA

deficit is expanding but remains funded by FDI

and EU funds

Bank flow: Lending is not shy anymore

Author: Mihaela Neagu, Senior Economist

[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]


2

QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT ROMANIA – JAN 2018 Economic Growth Growth rate significantly above potential

Third quarter GDP growth of 8.8%yoy was more than double the potential growth, but

unlike in the previous quarters, investments were spotted as well, most likely private ones. In

structure, the largest increases were in equipment, and sector wise the largest changes were

seen in constructions and commerce/services. Investments’ contribution to growth of 2.3

percentage points pales in the face of consumption (8.2 percentage points) and it is 31%

lower than at the peak of the cycle, in Q3 2008 (in constant prices), while consumption is

25% above Q3 2008.

On production side, the largest contribution came from agriculture (2.6 percentage

points), followed by industry (1.8 percentage points) and trade & transport & tourism (1.5

percentage points). Even excluding agriculture, growth would have been above potential, at

6.6%yoy. Both internal and external demand boosted the later 2 sectors.

A look at the economic cycle: Main assets types’ evolution suggest the economy may be at its

peak

Source: NIS, Eurostat, NBR, BVB, GarantiBank Research

Note:* GDP growth for 9M, real estate prices up to June 17, inflation at Nov 17, new RON loans

interest rate until Nov 17

World trade and demand for capital goods were a worldwide phenomenon in 2017. Cars

and machinery equipment explain more than two thirds of industry’s growth in Q3 2017,

-140%

14%

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

Dec-08 Dec-09 Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec 17*

annual inflation % GDP (yoy %)

real estate prices (nominal, yoy %) 3Ybond yields ( mid, yearly difference, %)

new loans interest rate ( yearly difference, %) BETXT (yoy %, right hand side)

Economy is

contracting

Real estate prices

fall RON interest rates

fall

Growth is picking up

Interest rates are falling

Inflation moderates

Real estate pricing are falling

Peak

of the

cycle

Real estate

prices grow

Inflation is

negative

High GDP

growth

Real estate

prices grow

Inflation is

positive Bond yields

start to grow

Stock prices accelerate

RON loan are

increasing

%


3


while electrical equipment comes next (see table below). Machinery equipment production

advanced at a whopping 50% yoy in Q3 2017, while electrical goods added 30% yoy and

cars production expanded at 12% yoy.

Looking forward, key players like industry and trade may determine a GDP rate

slowdown to 4% in 2018 versus 6.5% in 2017. Trade should record a milder pace as

disposable income is likely to increase at a slower pace. In industry, capacity utilization

should have increased in Q4 as well, to 78.6%1, just above the post crisis average. The same

leading industries (machinery production and electrical equipment) are expected to continue

to have a significant pace.The leading indicators are optimistic at the start of the year, but the

overall pace may slow down in 2018, as growth expectations in 2 of our top 3 exporting

countries, Germany and Italy point to deceleration. In 2018, UK is expected to close

negotiations related to EU exit, which could marginally negatively affect the euro-zone pace

while in Italy, decision makers will be focused on elections.

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DETAILS INDUSTRIAL SALES LED BY EXTERNAL MARKET

IN 2017; CAPACITY UTILIZATION IS UP

Source: NIS, GarantiBank Research calculation Source: NIS, EC, GarantiBank Research

Monetary stance NBR starts tightening

The annual inflation stood at 3.3% in December and it is expected to reach a peak in Q1

2018. This year, the average inflation could be around 4%. Considering the annual average

was just 1.3% in 2017, NBR is expected to act upon the rising price pressures and operate

several hikes in 2018, of which the first one was already operated in January. We expect an

end of year key rate of 2.75%. Already in 2017, in order to better guide the interest rates

path, NBR tightened twice the variation corridor around the base rate in 2017, from 150bps

in January to 100 bps in November and the monetary policy transmission was favored by the

liquidity squeeze. ROBOR rates climbed by more than 100bps in October – November and

the NBR used weekly repo to fuel liquidity in the market. Rates eased only marginally in

December, when the 1.8% in GDP cash deficit was likely realized2. Liquidity conditions will

1 European Commission survey

2 The budget deficit was 1.2% during the first 11M and the yearly plan was 3% in 2017.


4


improve after another reduction in mandatory reserves ratio, by 2 percentage points for both

RON and foreign currency liabilities, expected in 2018.

NBR is also monitoring major and regional central banks’ activity. So far, regional banks

such as the one in Poland and Hungary have lower key rates than in Romania, at 1.5%

(Poland) and 0.9% (Hungary), while the average real rate has been negative in these

neighboring countries, in 2017, compared to a positive one in Romania. Additionaly, major

central banks have already started to tighten, such as Fed3, or are expected to take measures

that will raise interbanking rates by the end of 2018 (the case of ECB).

Fiscal policy

2018 budget deficit at 3% could continue to weigh on investments

After recording a budget deficit of just 1.2% during the first 11M, 2017 is likely to end at

3% budget deficit on cash basis, higher than in 2016 (-2.4%). The operated tax cuts and the

lower tax collection may have pushed revenues to 30.5% in GDP in 20174, close to the

historical minimum seen in 2016. Wages expenditure rose by 22% according to preliminary

estimates of the government and little fiscal space was left for investments. Just like in 2016,

investments will see a fall in 2017, expected at 5.6%yoy, although during the first 11M it is

much deeper, of 19%yoy.

The 2018 budget plan sees a deficit of 3% (see Table 1 below), the same as in 2017.

However, the structural deficit is planned to continue to worsen, from 3.06%5 in 2017 to

3.17% in 2018. The numbers are far from the medium term objective of 1% and the EU

Commission has already asked the government officials to present measures to improve

budget execution by April 2018 and estimated that a 0.8% correction on the structural deficit

is needed. The Fiscal Council warned that VAT revenues are overstated by RON 4.9 bn6

while expenditures with social assistance are underestimated by RON 1.5 bn, which total

around 0.7% in GDP.

We expect a 3.5% budget deficit this year, which will continue to pressure down

investments in the short term. However, the public debt which is now at EUR 64.2 bn (37%

in GDP in Sep 17) is seen exceeding 40% only in 2020 while in the short term the Treasury

3 The Fed raised the targeted interval 3 times in 2017, up to 1.50%.

4 Government’s estimate, Raport buget 2018, based on total revenues of RON 256.8 bn and a GDP of RON 842.5 bn in 2017.

5 Government’s estimate, Raport buget 2018

6 http://www.consiliulfiscal.ro/CFOpiniebuget2018completare.pdf

ON SMALLER LIQUIDITY, INTERBANKING RATES

CLIMBED; NBR TIGHTENED VARIATION BAND

NBR STARTS RAISING THE KEY RATE AS

INFLATION PRESSURES APPEAR

Source: NBR, GarantiBank Research Source: NBR, GarantiBank Research


5


could start using the rich FX buffer of EUR 6 bn, covering 6M of funding, compared to 4M

recommended by the IMF. The treasury has another strong position due to the average

maturity which is comfortable at 5.8 years (Sep 17), lengthened from 3.8 years (2011) post

crisis.

Financing will become more expensive in 2018, especially since the majority of public

debt (52%) is domestic and that RON yields already increased by 80-180 bps in 2017 when

average inflation stood 1.3% while in 2018 average inflation is expected at around 4%.

Gross financing needs rose in 2018 to 8.2% in GDP7, from 7.7% the previous year. RON

31.3 bn in government securities come to maturity in 2018 (see chart below). A large chunk

will be seen in January, June and November (~RON 8 bn). The Treasury plans to issue EUR

4-5 bn Eurobonds in 2018, versus EUR 2.75 bn 2017, to frontload for 2019 as well.

Government securities redemptions RON yield curve (mid yields, NBR fixing)

Source: Thomson Reuters Source: NBR

Table 1: Budget plan 2018

Source: Ministry of Finance, Fiscal Council, Garanti Bank Research

7 Gross financing needs estimated by the Ministry of Finance are RON 74 bn and official GDP forecast RON 907.9 bn.

-

2

4

6

8

10

Jan

-18

Feb

-18

Mar

-18

Ap

r-1

8

May

-18

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

No

v-1

8

Dec

-18

RON bn

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Jul-

15

Jan

-16

Jul-

16

Jan

-17

Jul-

17

Jan

-18

6M 12M3Y 5Y10Y

plan plan plan plan

mn RON mn RON %GDP %GDP

2017 2018 2018/2017 2017 2018

Total revenue 256,805 287,522 12.0% 30.5% 31.70%

Corporate income tax 14,526 15,434 6.3% 1.7% 1.7%

Value added tax 52,846 61,737 16.8% 6.3% 6.8%

Excise duties 26,645 29,961 12.4% 3.2% 3.3%

Social security contributions 71,856 91,698 27.6% 8.5% 10.1%

Non fiscal revenue 22,563 19,974 -11.5% 2.7% 2.2%

EU funds 21,594 28,145 30.3% 2.6% 3.1%

Other 46,775 40,856 -12.7% 5.6% 4.5%

Total expenditures 281,773 314,481 11.6% 33.4% 34.6%

Compensation of public employees 69,617 80,803 16.1% 8.3% 8.9%

Goods and services 39,549 39,948 1.0% 4.7% 4.4%

Interest paid 10,498 11,803 12.4% 1.2% 1.3%

Subsidies 6,863 7,263 5.8% 0.8% 0.8%

Other transfers 34,980 37,224 6.4% 4.2% 4.1%

Social benefits 93,178 98,961 6.2% 11.1% 10.9%

Investment expenditures 27,044 38,132 41.0% 3.2% 4.2%

Excedent (+)/Deficit (-) (RON mn)24,968 - 26,960 - 8.0% -3.0% -3.0%

Including RON 7 bn in

eurobonds


6

QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT ROMANIA – JAN 2018 External Accounts and Financing

The CA deficit is expanding but remains funded by FDI and EU funds

The CA deficit continued to expand to 3.2% in GDP (12M rolling) during the first 10M

of October, from 2.1% at the end of 2016. The main driver is the trade gap which is

expanding as disposable income increased significantly in the past two years following a

loose fiscal policy. Still, the size of the deficit does not pose problems and it continues to be

financed by FDI (2.9%, 12M rolling) and EU funds (0.9%, 12M rolling). FDI are on an

increasing path, while EU funds are at the lowest point since 20118. The CA deficit should

not catch too much speed, as wages’ growth should be slower in 2018, starting with the

public sector where the budgeted hike is lower in 2018 (+16% yoy in 2018 vs. 22% in 2017)

while in the private sector there is still to be seen how companies will adapt to the new

taxation, as some already announced not to hike gross wages.

Although the CA is widening, being consumption driven, the external debt is shrinking in

relative terms, to 52% in GDP in Sep 17, from 56% one year ago and banking system

deleveraging remains a constant. The data hides some weaknesses though: the goods and

services imports’ cover stood at 5.6 months in Sep 17, compared to 6.4 months one year ago.

Also, the coverage of short external debt service by the FX reserve dropped to 85%9 in Sep

17 from 94.2% a year ago, against an ideal full coverage.

The widening of the CA deficit which is accompanied by possible investment climate

deterioration may lead to depreciation pressures in 2018, pushing the EUR/RON to 4.78 by

the end of the year. The uncertainty of the implementation fiscal legislation weighs

negatively. The international context supports also supports this view, as the Fed already

started tightening, which can redirect some of the hot money from Eastern Europe region,

whereas this year portfolio inflows were higher compared to 2016 (1.9% in GDP, 12M

rolling, in Oct 2017, versus 0.6% in Dec 2016).

8 As percentage in GDP

9 The ratio refers to short term debt by remaining maturity, which includes the outstanding short term debt plus long term

debt repayments due in the next 12 months

EU FUNDS ARE CRAWLING; CA DEFICIT STILL

FUNDED BY FDI AND EU FUNDS

EXTERNAL PUBLIC DEBT FELL TO 52% IN GDP

Source: NBR, GarantiBank Research

Note: the most significant component is net loan flows

Source: NBR, GarantiBank Research

-13.8%

-1.2% -2.1% -3.2%

7.3%

-3.1% -3.7% -2.4%

0.6%

2.4% 2.5% 0.9%

5.5%

1.8% 2.7% 2.9%

0.4%

0.0% 0.6%

1.8%

-12%

-7%

-2%

3%

8%

13%

2007 2015 2016 12m rolling,Oct 17

Portfolio flows (% GDP)FDI (%GDP)EU funds (% GDP)Loans, reserve ch., fin derivatives, errors*Current account deficit (% GDP)

32.6 31.4 32.6 33.2

16.2 14.3 12.0 10.0

24.0 22.7 23.3 22.7

19.3 22.1 24.6 26.1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mar

-13

Jun

-13

Sep

-13

Dec

-13

Mar

-14

Jun

-14

Sep

-14

Dec

-14

Mar

-15

Jun

-15

Sep

-15

Dec

-15

Mar

-16

Jun

-16

Sep

-16

Dec

-16

Mar

-17

Jun

-17

Sep

-17

bn

EU

R

General government Central Bank

Banks Private sector

FDI related (Intercompany lending)

56% 52% in GDP


7

QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT ROMANIA – JAN 2018 Bank Flows Lending is not shy anymore

Lending has restarted to advance, at an annual pace of 6.8% in November, more than double

compared to the euro-zone and much faster than the 1.2% year on year seen in December 2016. For

the moment though, private loans penetration continued to drop and deleveraging is still taking place,

albeit at a slower pace. While household lending has been picking up since Q2 2015, loans to

companies have just moved in the positive territory in the first quarter of 2017 and both sectors are

now advancing at a pace of 6-8% annually. The bets for future growth fall especially on companies’

loans, while the household sector is seen by NBR to be over indebted.

Household loans are mostly RON denominated and the mortgage stock has not suffered a

post crisis correction, unlike the rest of loans type. Dominated by Prima Casa (62.5% of mortgage

stock Sep 17), mortgages grow at 13.2%yoy annually while consumer loans have been in the positive

territory for the past 7M (+ 2.1%yoy). New rules for Prima Casa are being considered, affecting both

the supply and demand side. On one hand, banks which have tapped the program the least are

favored10

, on the other hand, the loans should increase their social impact and go to the low income

categories11

, but no clear measure was put out yet. In terms of the ceiling, the level of guarantees

should drop from RON 2.5 bn in 2017 to RON 2 bn between 2018-2020 and finally, to RON 1.5 bn

in 2021.

Company lending shows signs of revival, with industry and services loans jumping between

4-5% annually, while agriculture tops with a 13.8%yoy advance in November. Constructions are

falling by 1.6% yoy, but they were sinking by 10%yoy in December 16. Overall, the dynamics

improved especially on working capital loans (<1y), which are seen growing by 5.7%yoy in

November, up from a 7%yoy fall in December 16. The NBR estimates there are around 14.300

companies (out of which 13.400 SMEs)12

which have a low indebtedness ratio and which proved

during one economic cycle that they can perform well sustainably. Those could take loans of RON

113 bn, of which around 40% should go to industry and services.

LENDING ACCELERATES FASTER THAN IN THE

EUROZONE

COMPANY LOANS ARE PICKING UP, WORKING

CAPITAL RECOVERED FROM LARGE FALL;

INDUSTRY IS RISING AGAIN

Source: NBR, GarantiBank Research Source: NBR, GarantiBank Research

10

There are several criteria and some are related to the volume of mortgages granted. If the First Home / Mortgage Loan ratio

is subunit, that bank will receive the maximum score for the next ceiling. 11

NBR’s view is that the targeted segments should have below average wage 12

NBR, Financial Stability report, Dec 17

10.4%

6.8%

2.9%

-6%

-1%

4%

9%

14%

No

v-1

1

May

-12

No

v-1

2

May

-13

No

v-1

3

May

-14

No

v-1

4

May

-15

No

v-1

5

May

-16

No

v-1

6

May

-17

No

v-1

7

Private deposits ( %, yoy)

Private loans (%, yoy)

Private loans, Eurozone, (%, yoy, working daysand seasonaly adjusted)

-15%-10%

-5%0%5%

10%15%20%

con

stru

ctio

ns

ind

ust

ry

serv

ice

s

agri

cult

ure

< 1

Y, y

oy

1Y-

5Y,

yo

y

>5

Y, y

oy

Dec-16

Nov-17

per maturity, yoy%

per sector, yoy%

3M rolling


8


The economic advance supports expectations for increased demand this year as well, as

wages will continue to grow on one hand while lending to companies has just restarted and it is

procyclical. More EU funds inflows will allow more leverage and more loans could be taken for

investments, while in 2017 mainly working capital loans have been tapped (~60% of new loans

excluding treasury loans13

).

Looking at the supply side, interest rates will likely continue to rise this year, both in RON

and EUR. RON loan interest rates were already higher in 2017, by 70 to 100 bps (November 17

compared to December 16, see Table 2 below). The euro denominated interest rates should see an

uptrend as well as the quantitative easing should come to a halt. The Fed hiked in 2017 (3 times* 25

bps) and the ECB will likely not lag far. Another point is that the banking system parameters are

improving: NPL rate fell to a historical minimum of 7.3% in November 1714

and banking profit is on

the rise. The system is consolidating and saw the highest post crisis profit of RON 4 bn during the

first 3 quarters (+10.5%yoy), while ROE jumped to 12.9% in September 17 from 12.3% one year

ago. Loans/deposits ratio continued to fall in 2017, until 80.4% in November (93% for RON and

74% for FX) but we expect a reversal of this trend, given a sustained lending pace this year and a

deceleration in the annual pace of private deposits.

Private deposits exhibit a 11.4% yearly growth in November, driven by the household sector

which holds 60% of the stock. As real deposits interest is already negative, incentives for saving

drop.

Table 2: Average loan interest rates

Source: NBR, Garanti Bank Research

13

NBR, Financial stability report, Dec 2017 14

Down from 20.71% in the end of 2014, EBA definition

RON EUR RON EUR RON EUR

Dec-14 9.4 3.4 4.5 5.3 5.9 3.9

Dec-15 8.7 4.8 3.7 4.3 4.4 3.2

Dec-16 8.3 4.5 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.1

Nov-17 9.0 5.2 4.3 4.1 4.7 2.7

Consumer Mortgage Companies


9

QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT ROMANIA – JAN 2018 Macroeconomic Data

2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F

Economy

Real GDP, (% yoy) 3.1 3.9 4.8 6.5 4.0

Agriculture, % yoy 4.3 -11.8 0.0 8.5 5.0

Industry (except construction), % yoy 3.6 5.4 1.8 7.3 3.2

Construction, % yoy 1.9 6.8 1.8 1.5 5.0

Wholesale and retail trade; tourism and transport, % yoy 1.6 12.1 11.3 10.8 6.1

Market services, % yoy 2.2 5.6 5.8 6.4 4.3

Public administration, % yoy 6.6 -8.1 3.8 3.0 2.6

Avg net monthly wages (EUR, nominal) 379 418 460 529 567

Avg gross monthly wages (EUR, nominal) 524 576 643 740 773

Avg net monthly wages (% yoy, RON) 7.5 11.3 13.0 18.0 10.0

Minimum gross monthly wages (EUR, nominal, eop) 201 232 275 311 316

Unemployment rate, ILO, % avg 6.8 6.8 6.0 5.1 4.9

External Accounts

Current Account (EUR bn) -1.0 -1.9 -3.5 -6.2 -7.2

Current Account (% of GDP) -0.7 -1.2 -2.1 -3.3 -3.8

Export (FOB, EUR bn) 52.5 54.6 57.4 62.6 66.3

Import (CIF, EUR bn) 58.5 63.0 67.3 75.4 80.7

Export (% yoy) 5.8 4.1 5.1 9.0 6.0

Import (% yoy) 5.8 7.6 7.0 12.0 7.0

Trade balance FOB-CIF (EUR bn) -6.1 -8.4 -10.0 -12.9 -14.4

Trade balance FOB-CIF (% of GDP) -4.0 -5.2 -5.9 -7.0 -7.5

Net FDI (EUR bn) 2.7 3.0 4.5 5.2 5.7

Net FDI (% of GDP) 1.8 1.8 2.7 2.8 3.0

Internat. reserves incl. Gold (EUR bn) 35.5 35.5 37.9 37.1* 37.7

Gross Foreign Debt (EUR bn) 94.7 92.1 92.9 95.2 100.2

Gross Foreign Debt (% of GDP) 63.0 57.6 54.8 51.6 52.5

Fiscal Accounts

Budget Balance (% of GDP) -1.9 -1.5 -2.4 -3.0 -3.5

Public Governmental Debt (% of GDP) 39.4 38.0 37.6 37.2 39.4

Inflation/Monetary/FX

Inflation (CPI), % yoy, eop 0.8 -0.9 -0.5 3.3* 3.3

Central bank reference rate, % eop 2.75 1.75 1.75 1.75* 2.75

Central bank inflation target % 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50* 2.50

Minimum reserve req. rate on RON liabilities %

10

8 8 8* 6

Minimum reserve req. rate on FX liabilities %

14

14 12 8* 6

3M Robor, % eop 1.7 1.0 0.9 2.05* 2.50

EUR/RON, eop 4.48 4.52 4.54 4.66* 4.78

EUR/RON, avg 4.44 4.45 4.49 4.57* 4.73

Source: NBR, NIS, Ministry of Finance, GarantiBank Research Note:* actual data


10

QUARTERLY MACROECONOMIC REPORT ROMANIA – JAN 2018 Disclaimer

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Garanti macro report - Jan 2018

Data & Analytics