Lecture 4: The Demand for Labor

Gary S. Becker (December 2, 1930 May 3, 2014) Institution: University of Chicago(19682014) Field:Social economics Contributions: Analysis of human capital , Rotten kid theorem(social interaction) Awards: 1967 - John Bates Clark Medal1992 - Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences1997 - Pontifical Academy of Sciences2000 - National Medal of Science2004 - John von Neumann Award2007 - Presidential Medal of Freedom

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Gary S. Becker - ContributionsHuman CapitalIndividuals make choices of investing in human capital based on rational benefits and cost that include a return on investment as well as a cultural aspect.Research:impact of positive and negative habits such as punctuality and alcoholism on human capital. the different rates of return for different people and the resulting macroeconomic implications. distinguished between general to specific education and their influence on job-lock and promotions.Publications:Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis, with special reference to education Rotten kid theoremFamily members, even if they are selfish, will act to help one another if their financial incentives are properly linkedPublications: A Treatise on the Family

2Gary S. Becker - Publications

Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis , with special reference to education(1994)A Treatise on the Family(1993)3

HUMAN CAPITAL: EDUCATION AND EARNINGSHwei-Lin Chuang, Ph.D.2014/04/214EDUCATION: STYLIZED FACTSEducation is strongly correlated with:Labor force participation ratesUnemployment ratesEarnings51. EDUCATION IN THE LABOR MARKET: SOME STYLIZED FACTS808590959697989910010110256.2252.6948.5144.3443.8842.8741.6741.6241.1841.2541.5060.6561.1261.3863.5263.9563.6462.6162.2562.3662.3061.8266.8068.2766.4067.3867.6368.1868.4068.4368.2368.0067.77 % %808590959697989910010110254.2643.6035.3627.4026.1324.6123.2722.5021.5920.8820.3029.8934.1435.9335.9135.7535.2534.5534.1534.0433.8333.3815.8522.2728.7136.7038.1340.1442.1843.3644.3745.2846.326 %80859095969798991001011020.972.024.713.213.223.765.844.833.693.523.532.163.005.124.364.314.346.195.584.664.224.112.043.133.723.984.004.215.575.124.514.584.5091929394959697989910010110226,72026,05226,64627,24727,29427,72528,18025,69826,35826,84027,51927,71329,78229,50729,65830,18330,12330,30830,25629,06529,50929,91630,26430,37036,11535,82836,38936,68836,40936,49637,29636,11436,97637,66937,64037,890

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142014Top201520142013112Google537485361072899610112014201311412IKEA1513W-1412152116141713181618182019IntroductionPeople bring into the labor market a unique set of abilities and acquired skills known as human capital.Workers add to their stock of human capital throughout their lives, especially via job experience and education.16Human Capital: Education and EarningsWages will vary among workers because workers are different. We each bring into the labor market a unique set of abilities and acquired skills, or human capital.We begin our study of human capital by focusing on the decision to acquire formal education. The skills we acquire in school make up an increasingly important component of our stock of knowledge.172. The Schooling ModelWhat factors motivates some workers to remain in school while other workers dropout before they finish high school? We assume that workers acquire the skill level that maximizes the present value of lifetime earnings.182. The Schooling ModelReal earnings (earnings adjusted for inflation).Age-earnings profile: the wage profile over a workers lifespan.The higher the discount rate, the less likely someone will invest in education (since they are less future oriented).The discount rate depends on:the market rate of interest.time preferences: how a person feels about giving up todays consumption in return for future rewards.19(1) PRESENT VALUE CALCULATIONSPresent value allows comparison of dollar amounts spent and received in different time periods. (An idea from finance.)

Present Value = PV = y/(1+r)tr is the per-period discount rate.y is the future value.t is the number of time periods.20The present value of the earnings stream if the worker only gets a high school education is:

(1)The parameter r is the workers rate of discount. There are 47 terms in this sum, one for each year that elapses between the ages of 18 and 64.21The present value of the earnings stream if the worker gets a college diploma is:The first four terms in this sum give the present value of the direct costs of a college education, while the remaining 43 terms give the present value of lifetime earnings in the post-college period.

Direct Costs of Attending College Post-College Earnings Stream (2) 22We assume that a persons schooling decision maximizes the present value of lifetime earnings. Therefore, the worker attends college if the present value of lifetime earnings when he gets a college education exceeds the present value of lifetime earnings when he gets only a high school diploma, or:

(3)Goes to College Quits after High School FIGURE 1 Earning Streams Faced by a High School GraduateDollars Age wCOL wHS -H18226523(2) The Wage-Schooling LocusThe salaries firms are willing to pay workers depends on the level of schooling.Properties of the wage-schooling locus.The wage-schooling locus is upward sloping.The slope of the wage-schooling locus indicates the increase in earnings associated with an additional year of education.The wage-schooling locus is concave, reflecting diminishing returns to schooling.24(2) The Wage-Schooling LocusThe wage-schooling locus gives the salary that a particular worker would earn if he completed a particular level of schooling. If the worker graduates from high school, he earns $20,000 annually. If he goes to college for 1 year, he earns $23,000. And so on.01314181230,00020,00023,00025,000Years of SchoolingDollars25Defn. The Marginal Rate of Return to Schooling

The percentage change in earnings resulting from one more year of school is defined to be the marginal rate of return to schooling.26(3) The Stopping Rule, or When Should I Quit School? Suppose that the worker has a rate of discount r that is constant; that is, it is independent of how much schooling the worker gets. The stopping rule that maximizes the workers present value of earnings over the life cycle is given by:Quit school when the marginal rate of return to schooling = r 27This stopping rule maximizes the workers present value of earnings over the life cycle. Years of Schooling FIGURE 3 The Schooling DecisionRate of interestMRRrrss*28Schooling and Earnings When Workers Have Different Rates of DiscountYears of SchoolingYears of SchoolingRate of Interest12121111rBOrALMRRDollarswDROPPALPBOwHS29Schooling and Earnings When Workers Have Different AbilitiesYears of SchoolingYears of SchoolingRate of Interest1211rMRRACEMRRBOBDollars1211wHSwACEPACEwDROPZBobAceAce and Bob have the same discount rate (r) but each worker faces a different wage-schooling locus. Ace drops out of high school and Bob gets a high school diploma. The wage differential between Bob and Ace (wHS - wDROP) arises both because Bob goes to school for one more year and because Bob is more able. As a result, this wage differential does not tells us by how much Aces earnings would increase if he were to complete high school (wACE - wDROP). 303. Is Education a Good Investment?(1) Is Education a Good Investment for Individuals? The rate of return typically estimated for the U.S. generally fall in the range of 5-15 percent. At first glance, an investment in education is about as good as an investment in stocks, bonds, or real estate.

31EDUCATION AND THE WAGE GAPObserved data on earnings and schooling does not allow us to estimate returns to schooling.

In theory, a more able person gets more from an additional year of education.

Ability bias: The extent to which unobserved ability differences exist affects estimates on returns to schooling, since the ability difference may be the true source of the wage differential.32Estimating the Rate of Return to SchoolingA typical empirical study estimates a regression of the form:Log(w) = as + other variables

w is the wage rates is the years of schoolinga is the coefficient that estimates the rate of return to an additional year of schooling33

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:()A. The Upward Bias The typical estimates of the rate of return on further schooling overstate the gain an individual student could obtain by investing in education because they are unable to separate the contribution that ability makes to higher earnings from the contribution made by schooling. i.e., Some of the added earnings college graduates typically receive would probably be received by an equally able high school graduates who did not attend college.37Methods to correct this bias:Separating effects of ability and schooling by including the aptitude-test scores such as IQ.Controlling for all the unmeasured aspects of ability by using data on twins. Part of earnings differentials associated with higher levels of schooling are due to inherently abler persons obtaining more schooling.

38B. The Downward BiasSome benefits of college attendance are not necessarily reflected in higher productivity.Most rate-of-return studies fail to include fringe benefits. Fringe benefits, usually as a fraction of total compensation, tend to rise as money earnings rise.Some of the job-related rewards of college are captured in the form of psychic or nonmonetary benefits.

39C. Selection Bias The measured rate of return on a college education may understate the actual return for those who choose to attend college. Likewise, the measured rate of return may overstate the return that would have been received by those terminating schooling with higher school had they instead chosen to attend college.

40 : the earnings in a college-level job of those who choose to go to college. : the earning in a high school-level job of those who choose not to go to college.Let : the earnings in a high school-level job of those who choose to attend college terminating schooling at high school. is perhaps less than

Measured benefit Bt:

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:the earnings in a college-level job of those who choose not to attend college were to alter their decisions.

is perhaps less than

When abilities are diverse, the principle of comparative advantage is an important factor in making choices about schooling and occupations.42SCHOOL QUALITY AND THE RATE OF RETURN TO SCHOOLING

Source: David Card and Alan B. Krueger, Does School Quality Matter? Returns to Education and the Characteristics of Public Schools in the United States, Journal of Political Economy 100 (February 1992), Tables 1 and 2. The data in the graphs refer to the rate of return to school and the school quality variables for the cohort of persons born in 1920-1929. 4394 94

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60(2) Is Education a Good Social Investment? Some critics have suggested that to a large degree, education acts merely as a sorting device. Schooling does nothing to alter productive characteristics. The education is simply as a filter that has the effect of signaling which people are likely to be most productive. Note: Even if schooling were only a screening device, it could have social value. Employers need a reliable method by which to select employees. Investment in schooling sends a signal to the labor market that one has a certain level of ability. 61School would have net social value if the decision to attend and the success one attained in school sent accurate signals about productive characteristics to employers in the least costly way.

Either education does enhance worker productivity or it is a cheaper screening tool than any other that firms could use. In either case, the fact that employers are willing to pay a high price for an educated work force seems to suggest that education produces social benefits.62Schooling as a SignalEducation reveals a level of attainment which signals a workers qualifications or innate ability to potential employers.Information that is used to allocate workers in the labor market is called a signal.There could be a separating equilibrium.Low-productivity workers choose not to obtain X years of education, voluntarily signaling their low productivity.High-productivity workers choose to get at least X years of schooling and separate themselves from the pack.63Education as a Signal Workers get paid $200,000 if they get less than y years of college, and $300,000 if they get at least y years. Low-productivity workers find it expensive to invest in college, and will not get y years. High-productivity workers do obtain y years. As a result, the workers education signals if he is a low-productivity or a high-productivity worker. 300,000250,001 y 20,000 y 0DollarsYears of SchoolingCostsSlope = 25,000300,000200,0000DollarsYears of SchoolingCostsSlope = 20,000(a) Low-Productivity Workers y y (b) High-Productivity Workers200,00064EDUCATION AS A SIGNALThe low-productivity worker will not attend college if (6-16) Solving for implies that (6-17)The high-productivity workers get years of college whenever (6-18) Solving for yields (6-19)

65Implications of Schooling as a SignalEducation is more than a signal, it alters the stock of human capital.Social return to schooling (percentage increase in national income) is likely to be positive even if a particular workers human capital is not increased.664. Post-School Human Capital InvestmentsSome important properties of age-earnings profiles:Highly educated workers earn more than less educated workers.Earnings rise over time at a decreasing rate.The age-earnings profiles of different education cohorts diverge over time (they fan outwards).Earnings increase faster for more educated workers.67Age-Earnings Profiles

68Age-Earnings Profiles

69On-The-Job TrainingMost workers augment their human capital stock through on-the-job training (OJT) after completing education investments.Two types of OJT:General: training that is useful at all firms once it is acquired.Specific: training that is useful only at the firm where it is acquired.70ImplicationsFirms only provide general training if they do not pay the costs.In order for the firm to willingly pay some of the costs of specific training, the firm must share in the returns to specific training. Engaging in specific training eliminates the possibility of the worker separating from the job in the post-training period.71The Acquisition of Human Capital Over the Life CycleMCMR20MR30Dollars0Q30Q20Efficiency UnitsThe marginal revenue of an efficiency unit of human capital declines as the worker ages (so that MR20, the marginal revenue of a unit acquired at age 20, lies above MR30). At each age, the worker equates the marginal revenue with the marginal cost, so that more units are acquired when the worker is younger.72AGE-EARNINGS PROFILES AND OJTHuman capital investments are more profitable the earlier they are taken.The Mincer earnings function:Log(w) = as + bt ct2 + other variables.The overtaking age is t* and indicates the time when the worker slows down acquisition of human capital to collect the return on prior investments so as to overtake earnings of those that did not undertake similar investments.73THE AGE-EARNINGS PROFILE IMPLIED BY HUMAN CAPITAL THEORYDollarsAge-Earnings ProfileAgeThe age-earnings profile is upward-sloping and concave. Older workers earn more because they invest less in human capital and because they are collecting the returns from earlier investments. The rate of growth of earnings slows down over time because workers accumulate less human capital as they get older.74Chart1188.50246181818281.50099334.473611919323.74643377.54914305.191320424.51296409.20819365.94544828.42772365.10911502.00532421.42709896.11065390.594457.55693442.27843666.27191364.6637605.69352518.8701661.10588439.17279565.81014566.83556856.93951474.25416552.05324728.80112863.68744440.75566607.33676655.73541006.2486418.74615673.12394675.177681042.3104492.44109699.23885807.377681157.8525491.30066700.70516782.915121216.2845487.52605629.1589788.5081240.2709502.6085731.29159871.250671407.019533.37019711.00746871.393121461.0037605.21511751.03923871.848061435.7872557.69742772.16808949.997551692.676511.29319773.1378984.878981726.7883557.94249744.418291009.47851834.9789657.82398851.791991011.19781911.9756538.83671832.844511001.9041733.9155521.28569788.801481025.41371758.1525649.45157847.913561042.97671847.544588.3447840.789141059.04741807.1643546.04252846.002591056.63572046.4922660.73997844.621641020.73971822.2151618.83057835.703121118.62231919.178642.50797880.794651232.68992302.3732589.91164909.811551080.62442073.3328664.65846842.592281042.34111992.7649538.85335949.43021950.226921873.4501527.60766777.94584980.769991898.9533670.3367908.085581064.46331880.9563701.6226887.634371026.01172069.3517551.58806946.03741102.34052228.2088528.339351072.92591028.10911818.0309540.27952977.48271999.261051884.9223728.743721020.3888991.567071752.2374584.04468839.366491037.84421702.286508.62568886.268511097.42561684.1668663.042671300.26311119.17211895.8621589.98356841.571411032.3671889.2834

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Female Earnings Profiles0000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000

&FPage &PSome collegeHigh school graduatesCollege GraduatesHigh school dropoutswage1wage2wage3wage4AgeWeekly EarningsWomen

Chart2143.62822181818217.53881238.684471919283.24633317.87465251.9613720238.72263301.61744335.77776397.47143300.68682372.1474325.9603537.32309.0899346.54397373.43763566.05211277.56342389.9902369.61344643.10029333.63666434.47667466.17759732.19774309.65865420.87827548.97057700.42516403.0306445.36338514.51334918.36552310.89677420.18722517.47824844.72856309.58506437.92921589.79524838.11209365.27086434.38969580.58038961.02498328.35539469.60425569.977681055.819360.79203550.58582678.56913980.8062383.40746480.51821651.175071010.5701304.67347485.49281634.69693853.65487368.78859463.41194572.166321021.8601351.64572614.51654804.014431028.3334408.44202600.24786654.573641108.9836401.50105495.64303702.529191106.1256353.00192508.98425598.090811058.7462350.87354540.09519641.3315979.09733381.98456547.14186667.81761049.0373371.47524522.84118651.229841037.4497409.20491526.86396712.814841108.416315.58539524.38145727.673241144.9725399.97613513.83016739.544431240.1485370.70277536.53621751.143931087.5878415.61663518.09005682.610011069.5854359.97716598.43002656.479051120.763421.23389530.20599753.874031206.677440.31906543.38144761.6323999.47831409.74569600.81814710.21471238.001369.73553554.37121710.147451088.3633425.48696706.71227676.476791064.161444.15832522.4972745.033951058.6879371.17815548.0164731.809191188.5586387.38586550.95182740.016071152.8809392.93052624.04561717.476591119.1443371.6634557.00422646.431321044.4224400.11222512.78058653.422491079.8812358.45968514.93649869.68971375.2489

Some collegeHigh school graduatesCollege GraduatesHigh school dropoutswage1wage2wage3wage4AgeWeekly EarningsWomen

Male Earnings ProfilesAgewage1wage2wage3wage418188.5024619281.50099334.4736120323.74643377.54914305.191321424.51296409.20819365.94544828.4277222365.10911502.00532421.42709896.1106523390.594457.55693442.27843666.2719124364.6637605.69352518.8701661.1058825439.17279565.81014566.83556856.9395126474.25416552.05324728.80112863.6874427440.75566607.33676655.73541006.248628418.74615673.12394675.177681042.310429492.44109699.23885807.377681157.852530491.30066700.70516782.915121216.284531487.52605629.1589788.5081240.270932502.6085731.29159871.250671407.01933533.37019711.00746871.393121461.003734605.21511751.03923871.848061435.787235557.69742772.16808949.997551692.67636511.29319773.1378984.878981726.788337557.94249744.418291009.47851834.978938657.82398851.791991011.19781911.975639538.83671832.844511001.9041733.915540521.28569788.801481025.41371758.152541649.45157847.913561042.97671847.54442588.3447840.789141059.04741807.164343546.04252846.002591056.63572046.492244660.73997844.621641020.73971822.215145618.83057835.703121118.62231919.17846642.50797880.794651232.68992302.373247589.91164909.811551080.62442073.332848664.65846842.592281042.34111992.764949538.85335949.43021950.226921873.450150527.60766777.94584980.769991898.953351670.3367908.085581064.46331880.956352701.6226887.634371026.01172069.351753551.58806946.03741102.34052228.208854528.339351072.92591028.10911818.030955540.27952977.48271999.261051884.922356728.743721020.3888991.567071752.237457584.04468839.366491037.84421702.28658508.62568886.268511097.42561684.166859663.042671300.26311119.17211895.862160589.98356841.571411032.3671889.2834611.90775819.92647897.099011913.9992599.80153823.7312856.952811397.7749

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Male Earnings Profiles

&FPage &PSome collegeCollege GraduatesHigh school graduatesHigh school dropoutswage1wage2wage3wage4AgeWeekly EarningsMen

Female Earnings ProfilesAgewage1wage2wage3wage418143.62822143.6282219217.53881238.68447217.53881238.6844720283.24633317.87465251.96137283.24633317.87465251.9613721238.72263301.61744335.77776397.47143238.72263301.61744335.77776397.4714322300.68682372.1474325.9603537.32300.68682372.1474325.9603537.3223309.0899346.54397373.43763566.05211309.0899346.54397373.43763566.0521124277.56342389.9902369.61344643.10029277.56342389.9902369.61344643.1002925333.63666434.47667466.17759732.19774333.63666434.47667466.17759732.1977426309.65865420.87827548.97057700.42516309.65865420.87827548.97057700.4251627403.0306445.36338514.51334918.36552403.0306445.36338514.51334918.3655228310.89677420.18722517.47824844.72856310.89677420.18722517.47824844.7285629309.58506437.92921589.79524838.11209309.58506437.92921589.79524838.1120930365.27086434.38969580.58038961.02498365.27086434.38969580.58038961.0249831328.35539469.60425569.977681055.819328.35539469.60425569.977681055.81932360.79203550.58582678.56913980.8062360.79203550.58582678.56913980.806233383.40746480.51821651.175071010.5701383.40746480.51821651.175071010.570134304.67347485.49281634.69693853.65487304.67347485.49281634.69693853.6548735368.78859463.41194572.166321021.8601368.78859463.41194572.166321021.860136351.64572614.51654804.014431028.3334351.64572614.51654804.014431028.333437408.44202600.24786654.573641108.9836408.44202600.24786654.573641108.983638401.50105495.64303702.529191106.1256401.50105495.64303702.529191106.125639353.00192508.98425598.090811058.7462353.00192508.98425598.090811058.746240350.87354540.09519641.3315979.09733350.87354540.09519641.3315979.0973341381.98456547.14186667.81761049.0373381.98456547.14186667.81761049.037342371.47524522.84118651.229841037.4497371.47524522.84118651.229841037.449743409.20491526.86396712.814841108.416409.20491526.86396712.814841108.41644315.58539524.38145727.673241144.9725315.58539524.38145727.673241144.972545399.97613513.83016739.544431240.1485399.97613513.83016739.544431240.148546370.70277536.53621751.143931087.5878370.70277536.53621751.143931087.587847415.61663518.09005682.610011069.5854415.61663518.09005682.610011069.585448359.97716598.43002656.479051120.763359.97716598.43002656.479051120.76349421.23389530.20599753.874031206.677421.23389530.20599753.874031206.67750440.31906543.38144761.6323999.47831440.31906543.38144761.6323999.4783151409.74569600.81814710.21471238.001409.74569600.81814710.21471238.00152369.73553554.37121710.147451088.3633369.73553554.37121710.147451088.363353425.48696706.71227676.476791064.161425.48696706.71227676.476791064.16154444.15832522.4972745.033951058.6879444.15832522.4972745.033951058.687955371.17815548.0164731.809191188.5586371.17815548.0164731.809191188.558656387.38586550.95182740.016071152.8809387.38586550.95182740.016071152.880957392.93052624.04561717.476591119.1443392.93052624.04561717.476591119.144358371.6634557.00422646.431321044.4224371.6634557.00422646.431321044.422459400.11222512.78058653.422491079.8812400.11222512.78058653.422491079.881260358.45968514.93649869.68971375.2489358.45968514.93649869.68971375.2489370.36587573.72974583.81833932.19203334.52137569.92299663.260441056.2773236.99758474.15444608.77513921.45077406.20415438.77861507.88373862.9848321.09874513.91006623.464181145.2666303.99772473.94195606.04083751.05032294.29884468.5071641.960791048.1464

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Female Earnings Profiles

&FPage &PSome collegeHigh school graduatesCollege GraduatesHigh school dropoutswage1wage2wage3wage4AgeWeekly EarningsWomen