Gas and oil and problematicStrategic resource ?The purpose in geopolitics is to understand if countries with oil and gas have the status of power ?

Many countries in the north despite their status of power are under dependence

Power ? Dependence ?

toolsUnderstanding geopolitics of oil requires an analysis ofImportationsExportationsManagement of flux (how trade is managed)

New data : importationsImportations : more and more to Asian

countries like India or ChinaNow US and Europe represent 55% of oil

and gas importationsAfter the oil crisis in 1973 two factors

Oil and gas market became strategic market

The use of dollar raises monetary question Huge demandFew resourcesLess investment

Different structures

Future of geopoliticsAnalysis from James Kunstler “ The End of oil”

Europe faces issues with Saudi Arabia if a revolutionary regime is set up.

Strategy of limitations to EuropeConsequences: decline of Europe and raise of China or India.

The end of oil ?Risk of penuryTwo politics for developed countries

Find an other source of energyClose management of oil and gas

resources

For developing countriesNeed the help of developed countries even if

this countries are dependent

Three main polesThree main poles

Challenges of oil geopolThree factors have to be taken in

considerationOffer : not that muchDemand : a lot especially in AsiaInvestmentToday geopolitical challenges are differentBetween 2001 and 2005 producer state face

issuesWar in IraqTerrorism in ArabiaSocial issues in VenezuelaPolitical issues in Russia and Nigeria

And riskRisk in geopolitics because Iran owns 15%

of gas reserve and 12% of oil reserve.Second position after ArabiaStrategic position and roleBut interested to get nuclear power

because fears influence from US and IsraelToday 3,5 millions of barrels every day.If production stops price increases to 80 $

Weak Saudi ArabiaInstability from ArabiaPolitical regime gets weaker because of

Islamic networks25% of oil resources in the worldIf the production stops : general crisis

New erasGuinea gulf gets increased productionEstimations : 25% of total resources in the

worldBut face political tensions

High tensions in VenezuelaBut agreement with Russia last week

New eras like Sudan and role of China here.

Strategy of MNCs ?International companies in a phase with the state

policy ?International companies don’t control all resourcesMost of the time it depends on the State’s policy

(Algeria, Libya)ExxonShellBP AmocoTotalRole in geopolitics ex: Total in Guinea and reaction

from US and China

Gas Role of Russia : political utilization ?South streamNabucco and Putine’s strategy last weekStrategy about NabuccoAvoiding Russia but disagreement in EU.

Germany Italy France versus Bulgaria Rumania, Turkey