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Gas and the Energy System - Partly based on work carried out in the context of the Climate Council Professor Poul Erik Morthorst Systems Analysis Division
Gas and the Energy System
- Partly based on work carried out in the context of the Climate Council
Professor Poul Erik MorthorstSystems Analysis Division
Source: The Emissions GAP Report 2015
EU 80-95% reduction i
2050
COP21in
Paris
COP22i
Marrakech
27.September 2017
November 2016 94 countries have ratified the agreement covering approx. 61% of global greenhouse gas emissions – since then USA has left
27.September 2017
Source: The Emissions GAP Report 2016
Temperature rises
27.September 2017
Kilde: DMI, 2016
July 2016 and July 2017 the warmestmeasured ever
27.September 2017
Kilde: DMI, 2016
July 2017 + 0,83 C
In the North we are doing quite well in achieving our targets!!
• EU targets 20 – 20 - 20• Targets are expected to
be achieved by 2020
1.december 2016
• Targets for 2030 • Greenhouse gas-reductions of 40% compared to 1990
• Within ETS 43% compared to 2005• Outside ETS 30% compared to 2005 – Denmark expectedly
to reduce 39%.
• Renewables to cover 27% of EU's gross energyconsumption
Kilde: Climate Council
Greenhouse Gas Reductions 1990 -2012
EU targets for Emissions og RenewableEnergy
1.June 2017
Source: Eurostat
Source: Eurostat, ClimateCouncil
Is Denmark on the right track?
27.September 2017
Share of Renewable energy
Non-ETS in DenmarkThe reduction requirement is 4 per cent throughout the period
27.September 2017
Transport and agriculture dominates the Danish non-ETS sector
27.September 2017
We have investigated 20 so-called elements of transition
27.September 2017
The Council recommends 11 elements of transition
27.September 2017
The current surplus of allowances
27.September 2017
ETS allowance cancellation as an element of transition
27.September 2017
Effect of Danish cancellation of 8 mill. ETS allowances
27.September 2017
Where can we use gas in the transition phase?
•Gas in Transport• Heavy transport – person transport also a possibility
•Need for balancing wind and solar • Power balancing by gas – fast in ramping and quite
inexpensive• Interconnectors can do quite a lot
• In periods with low wind we will need a back-up• Central and/or decentralised power plants running on gas?• Short periods = Use of Gas turbines
•Long term storage facility• Short term might not be needed – flexibility, electric cars…
27.September 2017
Need for regulation on a national scale
•Too little connection between gas and other fuelsor carriers• Regulation for power and heat has strong influence on gas
•The gas regulation should be more suited to supplying varying amounts of gas• Capacity is the key word….• Is it too expensive today to utilise the gas infrastructure to
boost capacity?• Interesting with combined heat pumps and gas boilers,
however not economic feasible because of the tax system
•Support to Biogas should incentivise to competition with other renewable technologies• Biogas needs to be cheaper
27.September 2017
Thank you for your attention
Professor Poul Erik MorthorstSystems Analyses Division
DTU Management Engineeringe-mail: [email protected]
27.September 2017
