Press Conference, May 31, 2016
GAS EXPORT AND ENHANCING RELIABILITY OF GAS SUPPLY
TO EUROPE
Volume and average price data for Gazprom Group’s gas
in countries beyond former Soviet Union*
Volume and average price data for Gazprom Group’s gas
in CIS and Baltic States
2
Net revenue** from gas sales in countries beyond FSU Net revenue** from gas sales in CIS and Baltic States
* Gas supplies, incl. LNG, to foreign countries except for CIS and Baltic States under contracts of Gazprom Export and other Gazprom companies.
** Net of customs duties.
GAS SALES BY GAZPROM GROUP
167.6 148.3 148.1
156.6 151.0
174.3 159.4
184.4
10,125 9,414 9,167 11,259 11,970 12,138
13,487 15,057
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RU
B/1
,000
m3
bln
m3
1,261 1,105 1,099
1,439 1,469 1,683 1,752
2,166
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RU
B b
ln
357 310
450
637
530
420 412 430
0
250
500
750
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RU
B b
ln
96.5
56.7
70.2
81.7
66.1 59.4
48.1 40.3
3,957
6,411 7,039 8,509 9,490 8,500 10,116
11,911
0
25
50
75
100
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
RU
B/1
,000
m3
bln
m3
Poland (8.9)
France (9.7)
United Kingdom (11.1)
Italy (24.4)
Turkey (27.0)
Germany (45.3)
3
GAS SALES BEYOND FSU UNDER CONTRACTS OF GAZPROM EXPORT
• Sales under contracts of Gazprom Export in 2015 totaled 158.6 bln m3
• Net revenue from gas sales beyond FSU reached RUB 2.2 trln in 2015
• Germany, Turkey, and Italy were major gas buyers in 2015
bln m3
Kazakhstan (4.7)
Ukraine (7.8)
Belarus (18.4)
4
2015 RESULTS BY COUNTRIES: CIS AND BALTIC STATES*
bln m3
* According to financial statements under IFRS
• Gas sales in CIS and Baltic States in 2015 totaled 40.3 bln m3
• Net revenue from gas sales in CIS and Baltic States amounted to RUB 430 bln in 2015
5
LEADING ROLE OF GAZPROM GROUP’S GAS IN
EUROPEAN MARKET
Gazprom’s* share in European gas consumption Gazprom’s* share in European gas imports**
* Gas sales under contracts of Gazprom Export
** Difference between consumption and domestic production
179.0
125.2
48.9 44.6 37.6 28.2 8.7 7.8
0
50
100
150
200
Gaz
prom
Gro
up
Nor
way
Net
herla
nds
Uni
ted
Kin
gdom
Alg
eria
Qat
ar
Iran
Nig
eria
Gas supplies to Europe by major exporters and producers in
2015 (excluding Baltic States), bln m3
Short-term forecasts for gas consumption from leading
global companies (consumption 2008 = 100%)
151.
1
150.
5
158.
8
140.
6
138.
6
150.
0
138.
8
161.
5
146.
6
158.
6
583.6 582.8 597.5 563.6 602.0
551.3 542.5 540.4 485.7 505.9
26% 26% 27% 25% 23% 27% 26% 30% 30% 31%
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
100.0
90.1
81.0
85.5
88.0 90.4
92.6
85.2 85.4 85.4
78
84
89
95
100
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
%
Actual 2006-15
CERA (November 2014)
CERA (March 2016)
PIRA (July 2015)
PIRA (April 2016)
151.
1
150.
5
158.
8
140.
6
138.
6
150.
0
138.
8
161.
5
146.
6
158.
6
258.9 270.9 272.9 256.8 290.7
262.1 252.3 257.6 219.2
242.1
58% 56% 58% 55% 48% 57% 55% 63% 67% 65%
0
100
200
300
400
500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
6
INCREASING GAP BETWEEN CONSUMPTION AND
DOMESTIC PRODUCTION IN EUROPE
According to consensus forecast, Europe’s demand for extra gas imports versus 2015 will be nearly 113 bln m3 in 2025 and 150 bln m3 in 2035
Source: forecasts by top consulting and analytical companies as well as leaders of petroleum industry
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
202
0
202
1
202
2
202
3
202
4
202
5
202
6
202
7
202
8
202
9
203
0
203
1
203
2
203
3
203
4
203
5
bln
m3
Диапазон прогнозов добычи Диапазон прогнозов потребления
Консенсус-прогноз добычи Консенсус-прогноз потребления
Production forecast range
Production consensus forecast
Consumption forecast range
Consumption consensus forecast
7
DECLINING ATTRACTIVENESS OF U.S. LNG SUPPLIES TO
EUROPE
Forward contract prices in Europe are compromising commercial attractiveness of future LNG supplies linked to Henry Hub prices
Estimated price range* for U.S. LNG supplies to Europe versus forward prices** in European gas
market
* Based on Henry Hub forward prices, P = HH * 115% + X, where X – costs (liquefaction, shipments, regasification)
** NBP forward prices
Sources: Bloomberg, Wood Mackenzie
0
2
4
6
8
10
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Jan-
14
Jul-1
4
Jan-
15
Jul-1
5
Jan-
16
Jul-1
6
Jan-
17
Jul-1
7
Jan-
18
Jul-1
8
Jan-
19
Jul-1
9
Jan-
20
Jul-2
0
Jan-
21
Jul-2
1
Jan-
22
Jul-2
2
Price range for American LNG in Europe
Price range for American LNG in Europe excl. tolling fees
NBP prices (forward curve)
USD/1,000 m3 USD/MBTU
8
FORECASTED GROWTH IN GAS-FIRED POWER
GENERATION
Power industry shows greatest growth in gas consumption across Europe. Even EC’s most radical ecology-oriented scenario, with highest subsidies for RES, envisages increased gas use for power generation. According to baseline scenario, by 2025 gas-fired power generation in EU will grow by one-third versus 2015.
Baseline scenario* 2030 Energy Strategy scenario**
* 21% increase in energy efficiency by 2030, 33% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 versus 1990, 24.4% share of
RES in primary energy consumption by 2030.
** 27% increase in energy efficiency by 2030, 40% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 versus 1990, 27% share of
RES in primary energy consumption by 2030.
Source: European Commission, ENTSO-E
855
847
844
841
838
834
831
828
825
821
818
815
812
808
805
802
799
260
317
347
377
407
437
468
498
528
558
588
619
649
679
709
739
769 82
3 83
1 80
7 78
4 76
0 73
6 71
3 68
9 66
5 64
2 61
8 59
5 57
1 54
7 52
4 50
0 47
6 438
473
489
505
521
537
554
570
586
602
618
634
650
666
682
698
714
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
TWh
33.3
%
33.6
%
855
847
841
834
827
820
814
807
800
793
786
780
773
766
759
753
746
260
317
353
389
425
462
498
534
570
607
643
679
715
752
788
824
860
823
831
801
771
740
710
680
650
620
589
559
529
499
469
438
408
378
438
473
476
478
481
484
487
489
492
495
497
500
503
505
508
511
513
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Oil
Gas
Coal
Wind
Solar and tidalenergy, etc.Biomass
Hydro
Nuclear
TWh
26.4
%
40.1
%
9
GAZPROM IN INTERNATIONAL NGV MARKETS
‒ further developing CNG and cryogenic gas filling network;
‒ increasing small-scale LNG supplies to international
markets;
‒ boosting NGV business beyond Europe if Gazprom
implements international production projects with a view to
commercialize gas produced abroad.
Gazprom intends to expand its presence in
international NGV markets through:
Gas sales through Gazprom’s filling stations
mln
m3
Gazprom Group’s filling stations in Europe
Gazprom is developing logistics infrastructure in
order to establish itself in international NGV
markets
‒ construction of small-scale LNG terminal is underway in port
of Rostock;
‒ Gazprom entered into Framework Agreements with
Nederlandse Gasunie (Netherlands) and Fluxys (Belgium) to
expand small-scale LNG infrastructure.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2012 2013 2014 2015
Польша
Чехия
Германия
Poland
Czech Republic
Germany
Poland
Czech Republic
Germany
UNDERGROUND GAS STORAGE: ENSURING STABLE,
RELIABLE, AND FLEXIBLE SUPPLIES
2015: development of Europe’s underground gas storage system
British UGS facilities
Banatski Dvor
Katharina
Bergermeer
Haidach
Damborice
During 2015/2016 withdrawal season,
Gazprom operated 5.0 bln m3 of gas storage
capacities in Europe.
Maximum daily deliverability of UGS facilities in
Western Europe was 61.5 mln m3 during
2015/2016 withdrawal season.
Construction is currently in progress at Katharina and Damborice UGS facilities:
• Katharina UGS project is on track (4 caverns are functioning; working gas capacity is 219 mln m3);
• construction of Damborice UGS facility with design working gas capacity of 456 mln m3 is nearing
completion in Czech Republic.
10
NORD STREAM 2
11
• Nord Stream 2 project envisages construction of gas
pipeline across Baltic Sea with entry point in
Kingisepp District of Leningrad Region and exit point
near Greifswald in Germany
• Length of gas pipeline – around 1,200 km
• Annual capacity – 55 bln m3 of gas
• In addition to higher reliability of supplies, Nord
Stream 2 project is consistent with EU objectives for
energy security and harmful emissions reduction
• Nord Stream 2 AG project company was set up for
project implementation
Project partners
THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!